Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

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    Colorado is not much different to Georgia in terms of re-opening is it?
     
  2. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

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    Colorado is not much different to Georgia in terms of re-opening is it?
     
  3. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Less reported deaths is not the same thing as less actual deaths.

    The correct answer is that we just do not know the actual death tolls in nations stricken with widespread endemic poverty.
     
    Sallyally and a better world like this.
  4. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Earlier today I was doing some research into FL which has the 8th highest number of reported cases. Apparently they are NOT reporting Covid19 deaths for non-residents which skews their numbers down. This is a violation of the CDC reporting requirements and nowhere was I able to ascertain that FL was notifying other states of these deaths.

    It is entirely possible that there could be several thousand more deaths in actuality than is currently being reported.
     
  5. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, I'm a little skeptical of this assertion do you have anything to back it up? I will say their death toll is pretty low but so was their bed and ventilator use.
     
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  6. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why would they give up free money?
     
  7. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Flu and pneumonia deaths are WAY down this season. The CDC will stop counting flu deaths 1 1/2 month early.

    Common sense tells me that after hyping Covid based on early flawed numbers govt needs the Covid deaths padded to deflect the natural anger of a free people having their natural rights turned into permissions.
     
  8. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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  9. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    And you have the link for this?
     
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  10. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Ok thanks for the links and begs the question, if a cruise ship docks due to corona with residents from other countries dies, should they be counted in Fl? In the article it said the discrepancy had been "as high as 40", that's not a lot to claim a big coverup but it's an interesting question. Personally, if someone come from NY with Corona and dies on his yacht in Florida, it's a NY death.
     
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  11. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    There were 5,000 "flu" deaths that were never tested in FL right when the virus began to spread throughout the nation.

    There have been countless others where they have listed the comorbidity as the cause because they have refused to do post mortem testing for Covid19.

    The failure to follow CDC standards means that the FL are under counted and right now it is impossible to know by how much.

    Suffice to say that about 50% of all Floridians fall into the high risk category so their under counting appears to be disingenuous at best.
     
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  12. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Where are the CDC guidelines on which state should record the deaths if someone travels and dies out-of-state?

    I would think that if I went to Florida (or anywhere) and died, my death would eventually be recorded in Texas, since this is where I live, pay taxes, etc. It might take a while longer, as I assume that remains are flown back to the state of residence before death.

    Sounds like there is a squabble between New York and Florida over which state should count the death, not that the deaths are going completely unreported.

    Florida is tracking resident versus non-resident cases separately. As of yesterday, 31,986 residents and 860 non-residents.

    upload_2020-4-29_7-33-7.png


    Florida published a detailed daily report of every confirmed case and confirmed death of residents.

    https://floridadisaster.org/globala...id-19-data---daily-report-2020-04-28-1004.pdf
     
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  13. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Your link said there have been "Provisional figures released by the state health department show that at least 5,000 people have died from respiratory illnesses in 2020 so far." That's not 5,000 flu deaths since the corona virus started. Your articles on 4/23 said multiple times there were 40 discrepancies. Obviously, thee needs to be a lot more proof to substantiate the claim.
     
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  14. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    I personally think this is fair in Florida, a tourist destination state.
     
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  15. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Florida is showing that most of their cases are residents who are in Florida, and 8 Florida residents who are not in Florida right now.

    Separately, they have 860 cases of people who are in Florida, but are not Florida residents.

    upload_2020-4-29_7-52-8.png

    Source: Florida Dept. of Health
     
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  16. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes. I've mentioned that my boss booked a 5-day trip to Denver the first week of June.

    If he were to get sick, hospitalized, and die in Denver, he would count as a Texas death I would think.

    Again, I haven't seen any CDC guidelines on which state should count the death. Are there any? Otherwise, this isn't a matter of one state or the other "Doing it wrong," or being a "bad state".

    It's just as easy to argue that New York should claim their own residents who die while visiting another state as it is to argue that the state where the death occurred should claim it.

    What is the CDC guidance?
     
  17. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    NY is also tourist destination state and so are CA, LA, NV, HI and Washington DC so according to YOUR rational ALL of them MUST differentiate between residents and non-residents.

    Why is FL NOT abiding by the CDC reporting requirements while the other states are?
     
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  18. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...igation-and-Case-Report-Form-Instructions.pdf

    No reason at all for FL to NOT be reporting NONRESIDENTS to the CDC.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2020
  19. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The case counts of non-residents are on their dashboard, so those are being reported.

    In that CDC document there is one short paragraph on "death", to indicate yes or no and the date of death.

    "Did the patient die as a result of this illness? Select appropriate response. If "Yes,” then enter date of death in MM/DD/YYYY format. If unknown date of death, please select “Unknown date of death.” (In DCIPHER, this is phrased as “Check if date of death unknown.”) "

    Hospitals all over the country will be turning in those forms whether the patient was a resident or not, so the CDC has the count.

    The document does not say anything about residency status.

    Reporting to the CDC seems to be a different matter than having two chief medical examiners having a political squabble over which state's public dashboard should reflect that death. If the death is submitted to the CDC, everything after that is politics.
     
  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Well, here's the thing. Someone can hide COVID-19 numbers, if he or she is so stupid as to do such, but one cannot hide dead bodies, because dead is dead is dead is dead.

    In the fullness of time, all of the facts will come out.
     
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  21. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Under counting deaths is a failure to honestly represent the actual situation in FL which in turn could lead to further deaths.
     
  22. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, but in the meantime decisions are being made on the basis of under counts with potentially fatal consequences.
     
  23. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Here's a county/regional example from the Austin area. Austin (Travis County) didn't have any facility to isolate people recovering from nursing home hospitalizations, but Round Rock (Williamson County) did have a facility which could be used for those patients from Travis, Williamson, and a couple of other regional counties.

    While the patient is alive, they count as Williamson County cases, but if a patient is a resident of Travis County (Austin) and they die in Williamson, there death counts as an Austin (Travis) death. There is no dispute happening between the two county health officials here locally, but if there were, the death would be reported to the CDC regardless and the dispute would be settled later.
     
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  24. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Exactly.
     
  25. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    All the cases are being publicized on the dashboard, both residents and nonresidents. Whether case counts are climbing or declining would indicate the risk for an area while the states have a little tiff.

    There is a similar risk of double-counts, with one state tallying the death in their state and when the body is flown home it gets tallied again in the state of residence post mortem.

    Regardless of politics, I'm comfortable that hospitals are filling out the form sent to the CDC on whether a patient died or not. The CDC's numbers are very different from the Johns Hopkins or other dashboards. They're sorting out what (and where) they confirm deaths. That would cause a delay in their numbers.

    At stat said, the facts will come out in the end.
     

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