Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

The actual mortality rate based on infections is ~ 0.25%.

 

What the **** does OMB stand for? And what Feb 27th transcript?

Are you sure you aren't talking about February 29th? The day that Fauci said, "At this time, there is no need to change your habits over Coronavirus."

 

Setting aside the fact that is roughly 3x higher than the seasonal flu.

Are you assuming that the number of reported deaths is accurate?

Are you basing your "infections" count on the serology estimates from tests that have not been certified for accuracy by the FDA?

 

He said that the effects would be small but that could change. When did he say that and if he was so worried what were his recommendations ???

 

The briefing transcript where the 15 cases comments were made.

OMB - think it through.

 

You know exactly what I’m basing that on. The Kern county data shows 0.03%.

 

I already subject myself to enough torture listening to 45 speak incoherently about enough crap that I am not going to delve into an entire transcript merely in an attempt to discern the point you have yet to make. If you think he made a point that is worthy of considering when I cite Trump saying that the number of cases would very soon go to single digits and then to zero, let me know.

 

I wouldn't ask the questions if I knew your internal logic already.

The "Kern county data" is the data from the two doctors in Bakersfield, CA, right?

 

I have tried but failed to find any definitions of lagging indicator that support your proposed definition. The ones I can find make no reference to indications of what will occur in the future. Only what happened in the past.

https://www.bernardmarr.com/default.asp?contentID=1405

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laggingindicator.asp

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lagging indicator

Perhaps you can share with us a source that supports your definition for lagging indicator and position that everyone else is misusing the term.

 

So the truth is not important to you ??? You just believe some edited comments which you believe indicate that Trump was stating that the US would only have 15 cases ?? You knew about the 42 - where did that come from ???

 

Example of leading indicator: Town has the highest obesity, blood pressure in the state, higher than average nursing home residents and an above average age. Those variables -might- be considered leading indicators of future higher incidence of virus deaths. But they do not DIRECTLY INTERACT as data of virus deaths or infections would. With virus and infections there is a known, direct relation, not an indirect INDICATED relation.

Example of lagging indicator: Town has highest virus death rate in the state. soon the consumption of big macs trends down accompanied by more subscriptions to gyms. This MAY be a lagging indicator of greater health measurement results in the community over time such as lower blood pressure, obesity, diabetes, incidence... but again there is no direct relationship.

They I-N-D-I-C-A-T-E they do not define or determine.

Calculations involving quantities such as virus deaths, infections, cases, lethality, etc of the type discussed within this topic are NEVER "indicators," leading, lagging, etc. of ANYTHING because they are known and their relations are WHOLLY known by definition. They are direct mathematical operations. Please STAY AWAY from the stock market and only use mutual funds. Done explaining to you, you are INEDUCABLE.

 

See post above. My source is 8 years as a stockbroker in the far past and 20 years as a financial lawyer to date often involved in drafting definitions of such terms as they relate to market or interest rate changes. Not interested in this further.

What I have posted is correct, it is incorrect to try to apply the term "lagging indicator" to either corona deaths, infections, or cases because those are direct mathematical relations not subject to classification as an "indicator" of anything. There is really nothing more to say. It is off topic and not posting more on it.

 

How many of the staff work for agencies, and work at several facilities?

 

Yep, now is certainly the time to have an advanced care plan or living will for this eventuality.
And, arrange a power of attorney for if you can’t make your wishes known.

 

In order for 15 confirmed cases to go down to near zero, all their direct, and multi-level contact tracing have to test negative.

At 7 confirmed cases, British Columbia was preparing for a possible pandemic, and back then, (Feb 27), BC tested over 1,000 individuals. Same date, U.S. tested less than 500 individuals.

Again, I don't believe an epidemiologist/pandemic expert told Trump; "within a couple days, it's going down to near zero"

 

Did those fifteen people recover ???

 

How does one die of moral panic? Is that like travel restrictions causing suicide?

 

They still don't get it. They won't get it, until it's their small town, and their relatives (or selves) dying or being turned away from hospitals due to overload.

 

FTR, I have never received govt assistance. Don't plan on ever receiving it, so not sure where you got that idea from.

 

Are you sure it's just leadership? I mean yes, your leadership is weak in the face if this enemy, but surely your people are equally to blame? After all, they're the ones helping the enemy to victory.

 

Why is 'controlling and social distancing' next to impossible? And tracing, for that matter. Tracing is time consuming, but it can be done fairly effectively in any given situation.

 

I just don't understand it. Are people THAT incapable of self-discipline and a little hardship, that they break all the rules just because the sun came out? It becomes more unfathomable by the day

 

I don't see 15 confirmed cases going down to near zero, do you?


Feb 15.….15 cases
Feb 17.….15 cases
Feb 19.….15 cases
Feb 21.….15 cases
Feb 23.….35 cases
Feb 25.….57 cases


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

It’s the Swedish model which all states, nations, regions will go through.

 

Did the 15 people recover ??? It’s obvious that you didn’t bother to actually read the transcript as well. But that’s what the OMB people do.