Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Hey, Deri, we have a clean-up on aisle 5!!!
     
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  3. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Just the mention of Greta pops your cork, huh?
     
  4. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    Adjusted for population, we would have to have over 2,000,000 deaths to equal the Spanish Flu tally.
     
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  5. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The study that you presented about the lethality rate notes that ~1.3% of the symptomatic are lethal and that makes it far above the 0.1% of the seasonal flu. And we have all started to see the results of serology tests that put the infection rate far higher and the mortality rate far lower because there are so many asymptomatic individuals who were exposed to the virus and never showed any symptoms.

    And to that end, I just read this article which estimates the asymptomatic rate of Covid-19 at around 25-50%.

    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus

    This article from PBS, written much more recently, found similar results with ranges from 10%-42%.

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/5-questions-about-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases-answered

    So I was curious about comparing that rate to the seasonal flu. Just how common is asymptomatic infection amongst the seasonal flu and I have a hard time pinning down the results.

    For example, the first google result to this question returns the answer from this study:

    https://www.jwatch.org/fw108600/2014/03/17/most-flu-asymptomatic

    On the other hand, this meta-study, which is the second google result returns this result:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586318/
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2020
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  6. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    A) The Spanish Flu "tally" was the result after the entirety of the pandemic and we are only ~2 months into the current Pandemic
    B) Comparing Covid-19 pandemic to the single worst pandemic from the last 150 years tells you everything you need to know about the severity of this virus.
     
  7. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for those links.

    Even if the asymptomatic were as high as 50% that would still mean a death rate of 0.65% unfortunately.
     
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  8. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    It also thereby estimates a 98.7% chance at survival. So when we say "more deadly", we need to put that in proper context. It's almost impossible for a healthy person to die from the flu, it's more probable but still less likely that a healthy person dies from coronavirus.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2020
  9. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    It does seem to confirm that close contact(AKA: Large gatherings) is how this virus is able to spread. This makes "opening up" difficult because a lot of day-to-day operations by necessity are large gatherings. I'll take as an example sports(because I'm a sports fan and I don't wanna sound dumb.)

    You would think theoretically that it would be possible to separate the seating by 6 feet to accommodate, etc. The new lines drawn
    to physically distance people in lines for concessions. But this would be a MASSIVE logistical undertaking(the seating in particular) these stadiums are already built in a manner, and in order to revamp the stadium in that way, you'd have to revamp every...single...section(of thousands of seats.)

    That's why they've discussed and planned with no fans. A hell of a lot easier.
     
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  10. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    There's a lot of data to go around, but I largely agree with using this statistic to help assuage people of any concern that this virus is going to kill the human race (to the extent that those people even exist).

    But, there are additional data points that need to be considered when someone tries to use the 98.7% survival rating as a method for unreasonably dismissing the threat of this virus. Death is not the only harm. For those who survive a bad experience, there are likely going to be significant impacts including permanent and semi-permanent damage to the lungs and heart.
     
  11. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Also, there is something to be said about weight gain during the coronavirus. I'm freaking 203 right now(I'm 5'10). I normally am between 180-190. So I've gained anywhere from 13-23 pounds over the last two months and it's deplorable to me lol. If I were an running back, the weight gain would help with explosiveness. Unfortunately, all it does for me is give me a belly gut that just looks bad. I hope in the next months, the gyms open back up and I'm able to work this off like mad.
     
  12. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Didn't read the cite from the CDC run by your goofy hero, President Clorox?

    F8931EEE-F1BC-43BF-A234-54C16C16481F.gif
    If you don't call me "Clarence," I won't call you "Dumbass."
     
  13. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Will we need to find possible carriers? I sure hope not.
     
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  14. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Who doesn't want to believe that?
     
  15. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Bundesliga started again, Germany's premier football league. They quarantined the players, have them regularly tested and no spectators. The games lack the fire and emotion, no athmosphere. Germany is very well known for its fanatic fan clubs, packing the stadiums, practiced choreography and so on.
    Dortmund's Yellow Wall is special. That Stadium packs 80,000 and is sold out every game.
    Its a different kind of football they are playing right now.
     
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  16. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What are the Hools doing for entertainment these days?
     
  17. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    I love it when laymen attempt to cite law inaptly/incorrectly based on Google or whatever their Fake News tells them. You'll get the applicable law right one day, Perry Mason!

    Hint: Think "landmark Civil Rights cases," and when you figure it out, if you ever do, you'll near instantly also know as a matter of fact that you and yours are on the WRONG side of the prevailing U.S. Civil Rights law, right there with George Wallace, Pointy White Hats, people who wave the Confederate Flag... that's YOU. So ironic, so much fun.

    Protip: The raw statutes, rules, orders, etc. are almost -never- the complete legal "answer," not even close, and rest assured, the COVID1984 Viral Moral Panic of 2020 (now concluded other than for obvious shills) is not one of those rare exceptions. Very common armchair lawyer mistake.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2020
  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Ähm, no.
     
  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Actually, I find that "opening up" is eminently possible if there are absolutely no Covidiots out there, for instance, if every single person really does keep physical distance, really does wear a mask, refrains from activities that spit out a huge amount of aerosols all at once, washes his/her hands, etc.

    In other words, if every person were to act as if he/she were infected and would want to protect others from infection, I think there are a ton of things we could be doing right now.

    But the key is that EVERY person must do it instead of these ****ing idiots out there screaming about their so-called 1st amendment rights to go and infect other people.

    I mean, really, at some time, when enough people are dead, maybe people will realize that this was never political to begin with and those Covidiots are quite literally spitting in the faces of millions upon millions of healthcare workers who are busting their asses in order to save lives.

    After three months of watching this idiocy, my patience with Covidiots is now gone. They are not helping, but rather, hurting.
     
  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it's kind of like sex without sex.

    Blaaaaaaah
     
  21. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Å, that's nice.
     
  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The number of US-Covid-19 deaths now stands at 94,507, +974 of which have happened until now today:

    2020-05-020 COVID-19 update 001.png

    2020-05-020 COVID-19 update 002.png

    Also, with about 7 hours left in the day on the East Coast, a number of states have no yet reported anything or fully reported yet, for instance, NY has not yet reported deaths. PA has not reported anything at all. So, the US deaths is going to go way over +1,000 today when all is said and done, with Wednesday likely to be one of the two peak days in the week, unfortunately.

    2020-05-020 COVID-19 update 003.png
    2020-05-020 COVID-19 update 004.png
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2020
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  23. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Is that where you get your ideas about our legal system? Do you have an urge to jump up and confess?

    Are you really this clueless? I cited what the CDC uses as its statutory authority to quarantine people. Fortunately for you, they don't quarantine people for making stupid comments.
    Babbling nonsense.
     
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I don't know for sure. The beginning of humility is the willingness to admit what one does not know. However, the fact that China is going to do this tells me that they either a.) already know something or b.) are scared that the disease is spreading like wildfire again.

    I sure as hell hope that we won't need to find possible carriers. But in a way, and I know it sound perverse, is however not intended to be so, China is probably doing us a favor by re-testing a city, this time on a complete scale. This may give insight about what may need to be done in other cities of the world. I am thinking especially of Paris, London, of course NY, Chicago, Buenos Ares, Mexico City, Tokyo, Kagoschima, Seoul, Moscow, Rome.... just to name a few....
     
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  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    And in the time it took to write that posting, the number of daily COVID-19 deaths in the USA just rose to: +1,045. That makes for 94,578 total deaths in the USA from this horrible virus.
     
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