Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I saw a report yesterday on PBS about Russia and its death count. As explained by an English-speaking Russian statistician, Russia delineates between those dying *of* COVID and those dying *with* COVID.

Now, where that demarcation line is was not spelled out, but the statistician said that the only true count would come afterwards when excess deaths were computed, which is true for most countries as there is no universal standard for reporting COVID deaths.

Even with a standard, there would be gray areas so excess deaths afterwards will be the most accurate assessment, it would seem.

 

I myself find this to be truly bizarre that the Russian system makes such a hair-splitting distinction.

THANK YOU for making this posting, that was, imo, a very helpful information.

 

Yeah, so much has been said about Russia, not only here but in the media at large. Hearing one of their own explaining the methodology offers at least some clarity.

 

I think a central issue is the combination of asymptomatic peoples, combined with the negatives. So let's take the US as a singular example. We're a little above 1.5 million cases....to 12 million tests. To me, that's enough of a sample size to extrapolate the total infected(IE: If another 1.5 million cases were found with another 12 million tests, and so forth.) I know that it would be a totally hypothetical number, but at the same time it would be helpful for those covidiots to get a clearer picture of how extensive it is, if we estimated how many could be affected based on the numbers we have now.

 

And 26 minutes later, the daily death toll in the USA has now risen to +1,150, making for a total of 94,683 total deaths. We will likely go over 95,000 deaths when the day is over with, and still with 11 days left in this month.

So, my original projection of 103,000 US deaths by the end of May will definitely move upward, to at least 106,000. And we are at 100,000 deaths either on Saturday or at the latest, on Sunday this coming weekend.

 

PA is reporting(or at least Philly is reporting) +250 cases. I definitely think there's been covidiots regarding this virus. PA was once one of the 'tamer' of the mid-atlantic States and now we're really catching up.

 

Now with 100,418 cases, the state of Illinois has crossed over the 100,000 mark today, ahead of 196+ countries across the world. So, with NY, NJ and IL we now have three states in the USA with more than 100,000 C19 cases.

 

Good night, PFers. Sleep well when your time comes today.

Stay safe, stay healthy.

-Stat

 

Clients pay me very well for my "ideas about our legal system," so at least some interested people out there with money think they are accurate.

Guess what? Neither side of this will be citing, or rather relying on more accurately (they could possibly cite it as part of a preliminary or intro, not part of the meat of the brief), what you are claiming to be the definitive law. Have already given you clues and tips as to whether the actual dispositive law is to be found. It seems I can lead Armchair Perry Mason to water but...

Get comfy with those pointy hoods! ROFLMFAO

 

They organized and are helping in the Corona effort, helping the needy, rather spectacular effort from them.

 

Totally agree.
I worked my skinny arse of and spent several thousand of dollars to provide a save and healthy service and those ********s give me hell over it. I should have a covid test swap loaded with virus to suck on it, every time one of those covidiots cusses me out for enforcing the mask rule. In the last 2 weeks I have 86ed by the cops 6 of those MFs.

 

Screwing a doll?

Groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehl

 

So, they only believe in freedom to choose for themselves. They want to choose for others as well. Hypocrites.

 

Russia's number of deaths per 1M pop; 20......All died of Covid

U.S. number of deaths per 1M pop; 287... MINUS the ones who all died of Covid per 1M pop (20) = 267

Number of Americans who died of Covid; 6,600

Number of Americans who died WITH Covid; 88,110...…..Geeeeze, looks like a Fourth World health care system to me.

 

Its that Me, Me, I have to have freedom and I do not give a flying fick what that means to others, its about me and nobody else, fick the rest.

Egoism, nothing else.

 

****ing hell

 

Do you have something to back this up? The average deaths per month in the US has increased dramatically since March. You can't just say that's because more "xxx, but not Covid" came out of nowhere. Something actually DID come out of nowhere, and it's had a dramatic impact.

[/QUOTE]

 

Echt? Have they given up petty crime?

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before, Tuesday, 2020-05-019 (EOD GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT). Also here in a nutshell:

During the run of the day on 2020-05-020, there were some intermittent analyses:
USA EOD report 2020-05-019, posted 2020-05-020, 08:47 GMT +2, #9254.
The world goes over 5 million COVID-19 cases, 2020-05-020, 10:13, #9268.
USA update (in 2 parts), 2020-05-020, 22:55 GMT +2, #9325.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-05-020 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

*****5,082,661*****
The goes over 5 million COVID-19 cases early in the day.
+99,724 cases today over yesterday.
There are now 104 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
329,294 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,461 Americans & 991 Brazilians died from COVID-19 on this day.
​

You can find confirmation of the statistics these reports at the WAYBACK MACHINE. Search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We saw +99,724 new cases, as compared the day before (+94,813), +4,911 more cases than the day before, in line with the trend of a new case increase from Tuesdays to Wednesdays. The growth rate was 2.00%. The day before, the growth rate was 1.94% This is still a fantastically low growth-rate, one I was hoping for on the downward slope to: 0.

The 7-day new cases average for last week: (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 88,760 cases per day, above the average from the week before.

In terms of deaths: 329,294 total. In terms of daily deaths, the world suffered +4,740 daily deaths over the day before, in line with the trend of a new deaths increase from Tuesdays to Wednesdays, making for a 1.46% growth rate (yesterday: 1.43%).

The death rate decreased to 6.48%. The day before, it was 6.51%.

The 7-day new deaths average average for last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) 4,684 deaths per day, below the average from the week before.

The % of recovered people rose from 39.26% yesterday to 39.75%. The % of recovered people across the world is now less than double the % of recovered people in the USA. The last time that the % of recovereds and the % of sick people were equal was on: 2020-03-014 (47.70% / 48.57%). A sign that at least this wave of the pandemic is ending is when the number of recovered people is around 85-90% and the number of people still sick is between 5-10%. This is the direction in which the world obviously wants to go.

The countries with the most new cases:​

Currently, and unsurprisingly, the USA leads with the most new cases and has been doing so for a long time, with Brasil, Russia, India and Peru 2nd-to-5th in the rankings.

60 countries had +100 or more new cases, closing in on 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 58. Of those 60, 13 countries had +1000 or more new cases; the three days before, it was 16. The number of new daily cases in Iran has begun to rise again.

In a sign of the times, hanging consistently just below 100, Belarus, for which I wrote a quick analysis on 2020-05-003, came in at +918; it was at +936, +922, +969, +951, +958, +947, +952, +967, +933 and +921 the ten days before. Imagine that: little Belarus, statistically on par with large, industrial European nations. France (+766), Germany (+704), Spain (+721) and Italy (+665) all came in under Belarus. Now with 32,426 cases, Belarus is where the USA was on 2020-03-022, roughly two months ago and one week after I began this thread.

The countries with the most new daily deaths:​

The USA lead in deaths on 2020-05-020, followed by Brasil, UK, Mexico and Italy.

11 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 8 the day before). 5 of those 11 countries are from the Americas.

Total deaths per country, descending:​

There are TWENTY-FOUR nations now with over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. Poland and Pakistan will soon join that gruesome statistic.

There are 68 nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Croatia (96) will soon join this statistic

New: Total Tests administered per country, descending:
​

12 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece. The USA has now performed 14.1 million tests - I am starting to track the daily changes in total tests performed in the USA reports. Russia has performed over 7.6 million, Germany 3.6 million and Italy: 3.2 million. S. Korea and Brasil will soon also have performed +1 million tests on their populations. Brasil will get there long before S. Korea, based on the pace of Brasil's testing.

And now, on to the more expansive listing:

Total cases per country, descending (500 cases or above):​

There are now 104 nations in the "thousand club, with Kenya having crossed over the 1,000 mark. Albania (964), Lebanon (961), Mali (931), Cyprus (922) and Niger (920) and are up next to cross the 1,000 line in the next days. A little over one month ago, on 2020-04-019, I recorded 79 nations as being in the 1,000 club, so 35 more nations have crossed over the line since then.

Of those 104, 46 are in the "10,000 club. With 9,977 cases, Panama will cross the 10,000 line today. Argentina and the Czech Republic are not far away from that mark, but Venezuela may get there quicker. In the same report I referenced in the paragraph above, from 2020-04-019, there were 24 nations in the 10,000 club, so 22 nations have crossed over the 10,000 line since then.

Further, 12 of those 46 are at 100,000 or more, with Peru having crossed the 100,000 line. Likewise, Russia went over 300,000. And in the same report I referenced in the two paragraphs above, from 2020-04-019, there were 6 nations in the 100,000 club, so 6 nations have crossed over the 100,000 line since then. The point I am making is: this is not all about the USA. Nations all over the world are being massively afflicted with the COVID-19 virus and some are in far worse shape to even begin to combat the pandemic.

Facit: on 2020-05-020 world came over the FIVE MILLION mark and is already very close to 5.1 million COVID-19 cases and will cross that mark early in the day on 2020-05-021. This means that the doubling cycle from 2.5 million to 5 million was 29 days, from (and including) 2020-04-021 to 2020-05-020.

Now at almost +95,000 deaths, the USA is marching toward well over 100,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of May, 2020, possibly as high as 130,000.

The world-wide curve is verifiably logistical and on the very low end of the growth curve, which indicates a definite flattening. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 numbers for Tuesday, 2020-05-019 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0).

And now the COVID-19 numbers for Wednesday, 2020-05-020 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-05-020 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

*1,591,991 (31.32% of the worldwide total)*
+21,408 cases today over the day before (21.47% of the worldwide statistic).
94,994 COVID-19 total deaths in the USA (28.85% of all worldwide deaths).
Of them, 1,461 Americans died from COVID-19 on this day (30.82% of all daily deaths worldwide).
370,076 have recovered, 1,126,921 are still sick.
+1,472,397 newly administered tests from 2020-05-019 to 2020-05-020!
​

You can find confirmation of the statistics these reports at the WAYBACK MACHINE. Search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The 7-day new cases average from last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 22,833 cases per day, under the average from the week before.

The 7-day new deaths average from last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 1,456 deaths per day, slightly below the average from the week before.

At the excel-table, you will see that I have also highlighted the last four Wednesdays before this one, vis-a-vis daily cases and daily deaths. You can see the trends for yourself.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total cases, descending:​

COVID-19 in the US Territories (unsorted):​

45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (944) is next up, but the new cases in the 5 smallest states are moving very slowly, an interesting phenomenon to watch, since all 5 are geographically far-flung states either at the edge of the US border to Canada or not even attached to the continental USA.

29 of those 45 plus the cases from Veterans affairs (12,720) now have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 30, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 27. SC is up next to join the 10,000 club.

The state of NY alone has more COVID-19 cases (363,517) than any other nation in the world except the USA itself, of which NY is of course a part. I am thinking that in 18-20 days, Russia (308,705) will surpass NY's numbers. Wait and see.

Are people even paying attention to Puerto Rico, Guam and the Virgin Islands?

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, new daily cases, descending:​

4 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-020. The day before, it was 4. IL and CA led with more than +2,000 cases apiece, while NJ and MA came in at just over +1,000 cases. Both TX and GA, directly under +1,000, came in in front of NY. That is a very, very important data point. NY is no longer the real hot-spot in the USA.

37 states + DC reported more than +100 new cases, the day before, it was 35 + DC.

1 state reported no new cases: VT.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, top 25, total tests administered, descending:​

For seeing the number of tests over a much longer time-fram, go to the WAYBACK MACHINE link at the top of the report.

The USA has now administered 12.3 million tests and considerably more are being reported daily. I see this as a very good sign. Here, from the worldwide report from 2020-05-020, followed by the same from 2020-05-019 back to 2020-05-015:















Sunday to Monday, we added +425,164 newly administered tests.
Monday to Tuesday (2020-05-019) we added +344,729 newly administered tests.
Tuesday to Wednesday (2020-05-020), we added +1,472,397 newly administered tests.
Friday 2020-05-015 (11,090,900) to Wednesday 2020-05-020 (14,117,870) overall, we had an enormous jump of +3,026,970 newly administered tests over six days. This huge spike in testing should also result in larger positives, but hopefully, less in %.
Starting on 2020-05-021, I will only be calculating a 7-day interval and only including 2 graphics (the current day and the day before).

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, new daily deaths, descending:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

4 states reported more than 100 daily deaths. The day before, it was 5. NY lead in the daily deaths this time, but its number is just so much lower than it has been the last 5 weeks.

42 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 44.

We saw the Sunday to Monday to Tuesday elevation in deaths that that did NOT continue from Tuesday to Wednesday, with Wednesday showing a slight reduction in daily deaths (+1,461 vs +1,552, 91 less deaths on Wednesday), absolutely the best news of the month, bar none. I had been so waiting to see if the weekly "fever" would break earlier in the week in the USA and this may be evidence of such. Now remains to be see if we really crested the wave on Tuesday or if the deaths rise again today, 2020-05-021. If today's daily deaths drop, then that is a real reason to rejoice. Just 2, 3 and 4 weeks ago, we had around +2,200 daily deaths on each of those Thursdays; if we can halve that total today, that would be incredibly good on the way to ZERO deaths from COVID-19 in the USA, which is, of course, the goal.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total deaths, descending:
​

39 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. Currently at 90 deaths, UT will probably be next to cross over into that gruesome statistic.

Of those 38, 18 states in the Union have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths. In about 2 weeks, MN and AZ are likely to join that unlucky club.

With 28,816 total deaths at current, the state of NY has more deaths to mourn than every other COUNTRY on the Earth save the USA itself, UK and Italy.

EXTRAPOLATION:​

On 2020-04-028, 23 days ago now including that day, over two postings, I extrapolated that if we "only" had +1,400 US deaths per day until the end of May, 2020, then we would reach over 103,000 dead Americans at that time, before the summer even begins. In the days since, on 18 of those 23 days, we came in over that "only". Here again the excel-table for this report; it goes back to that date:



In a nutshell:

Time frame = 23 days from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-020.

1,400 * 23 = 32,200 extrapolated deaths.
Actual deaths = 38,197
Number of actual deaths over the extrapolation = 38,197-32,200 = 5,997 more deaths than originally extrapolated
5,997 = the equivalent of 4 days with no deaths at all (at an extrapolated 1,400 per day) +397 in reserve =1,400-397= 1,003 deaths on the fifth day and then the actual deaths would = the extrapolated deaths after the fifth day.

This means that were ZERO COVID-19 deaths to be reported in the USA for the next FOUR days in a row including today (2020-05-021 through 024 - Thursday through Sunday) and then, "only" +1,003 deaths were to be reported on 2020-05-025 (Monday), we would still be exactly on track to go well over 103,000 deaths in the USA at EOD on May 31st, which is 10 days after today, 11 days including today. The simple math is still horrifyingly unassailable.

On Tuesday, we ended the day with 94,994 US deaths from COVID-19, putting us +5,006 from the 100,000 line right now, so even just +1,000 deaths per day gets us to +106,000 without even having to extrapolate anymore. Assuming the normal upward wave of deaths in the middle of the week toward the weekend, I am assuming that by this coming Saturday or Sunday, we will already be at 100,000 US Americans dead from COVID-19.

Further, it is unreasonable to think that the deaths are simply going to stop just like turning off a spigot. Look at the current number of active (meaning: "still sick") cases in the USA: 1,126,921 (the day before, it was: 1,115,871). At least 2-3% of those cases are people who are in serious condition, decidedly closer to death than to life, so let's take 2.5% as the mean: 28,173. This is why the deaths won't simply stop all at once. But one day, they will and we will ALL rejoice.

Let's see what Thursday brings. I will be especially tuned-in to the number of newly reported administered tests and assume about a 1 week lag between administration of the test and published results. We may see a sizeable jump in COVID-19 positive cases starting next week.


-Stat

 

He's originally from Dagestan (see post #9144):

 

So, folks, I got up extremely early to crunch the numbers for 2020-05-020 because today, 2020-05-021, is a double holiday in Germany: Christi Himmelfahrt (Ascension) and Vatertag (Father's Day), and my daughter will be coming here very early to spend a couple of days with big bad Superdaddy!

(that's one smiley-face for each of her years on our beautiful blue planet)

Since the weather is nice, we will probably do a bike-tour and then grill out some nice BBQ chicken today, plus, it's her turn to bathe both dogs, brush them and apply front-line against fleas and ticks and the like. Allowances don't earn themselves without some good-old puberteen elbow-grease!

Papa-Daughter days are the best, especially if said Puberteen is in a good mood, nööööö, which means no arguments and no "Daddy, you are totally dumb" and stuff like that. Last week, she watched me crunch the COVID-19 numbers again at the computer and then, later in the day, I heard her say - "Papa, can you help me with my math exercises??"

Ahhhhhhhh.... the joys of Papahood!

Like every good parent out there, I am especially concerned about my child and the COVID-19 crisis, but everyone needs a break from this stuff now and then, so I may not be here online anymore today. Family is important to me, and I am sure, to all of us, of all stripes.

Please be safe out there and stay healthy. My best to ALL of you during this crisis. See you soon. And behave!

-Stat

 

You don't need a gym!

For starters just REDUCE your portion size. Use a side plate, small desert bowl and a small fork or teaspoon. You are allowed to have as many helping as you like but you MUST wait at least 20 minute BETWEEN portions. That will stop your weight gain.

You can do heel lifts, push ups, planks and squats in your own room. You can use bags of rice to do weight lift reps. You can use any set of stairs to go up and down for several repetitions. (Remember Rocky?) Nothing is stopping you from exercising and working off that weight gain in your own home except yourself.

 

F1 have lost their marbles!

 

[/QUOTE]


Do you have a link for those charts?