Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

That's the kind of **** that earns you an ignore.

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-011, there was one analysis of size:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-010, posted 2020-06-011, 14:09 GMT +2, #9926.

To confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. On some days, WORLDOMETER also provides a "2 days ago" function as well, which is the case today.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-06-011 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

*******7,585,099*******
+139,226 cases today over yesterday, second largest daily case additions thus far.
There are 121 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
Russia goes over 500,000 cases, Brazil goes over 800,000 cases.
There have now been 423,086 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,261 Brazilians, 904 Americans and 708 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

2020-060-011 was the fourth Thursday in a row to have the world jump more than +100,000 cases. In fact, the world has had more than +100,000 new cases in 15 of the last 16 days. +100,000 or more C19 cases per day is becoming the new normal.

Less people died on this Thursday than the Thursday before but more than the Thursday before that.

As you can see, recovered cases remained over 50%. This is, of course, a good sign.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +200 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 121 nations in the "thousand club". At 975 and 974 respectively, Cyprus and Niger are next up to cross over the 1,000 line. However, French Guiana is adding far more cases per day and will probably get over the 1,000 line quicker. Wait and see.

Of those 121, 59 are now in the "10,000 club". Currently at 9,855,the Czech Republic is next up.

16 of those 59 are now at 100,000 or more. At 97,530, Canada is up next. However, Canada's daily case load has slowed down considerably, a very hopeful sign for that nation.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:



Again Brazil lead the USA lead in new cases, and considerably at that, and with India, all three had more than +10,000 new cases apiece.

65 countries had +100 or more new cases, 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 66. Of those 65, 20 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 19. If you look at the list of top cases, you will see that they come from all over the world, but the Europe is the least represented on that upper list.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are now 73 nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is more than 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. At 98, 97, 92 and 89 total deaths respectively, DRC, Mali, Kenya and Oman are next to cross over the line.

Of those 73, 32 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There are now 10 nations between 500-1000 total deaths and you can be guaranteed that by the end of this month, most, if not all of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, none of them posted over +100 daily deaths except the UK (+151). Italy, France, Germany and Spain had +53, +31, +7 and 0, respectively. Yes, you read that correctly: on 2020-06-010, Spain recorded ZERO C19 deaths, and for the fourth day in a row! There can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is receding.

9 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 8 the day before). 5 of those 9 countries are from the Americas.

I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. Those nations are marked in the upper screenshots in this analysis (in green).

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 21 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with South Africa having crossed over the 1 million line on 2020-06-011:



The USA has now performed 23.1 million tests (500,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 13.9 million tests (400,000 more than the day before).

Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, is now at 1,364,423. Brazil's positive C19 cases to total adminstered tests is 59.04%.

Facit: on 2020-06-011, the world again saw the second largest raw-number addition of cases thus far and sailed to 7.59 million total C19 cases. We are easily on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at 116,034 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. A new extrapolation indicated 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running.

Also, an in spite of the fact that it now has just slightly less total deaths than the UK, Brazil, currently at 41,058 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, will easily surpass the UK today, 2020-06-012, and will then easily go over 100,000 deaths by the middle of August. By November, if Brazil does not get mitigation in hand, it could very likely surpass even the USA in total deaths. It's really very simple math.

It should also be noted that at this rate of growth - an average of well over +25,000 new C19 cases per day, Brazil, which just sailed over the 800,000 mark, will join the USA in the "Million Club" within a number of days, assuming that the government of Brazil doesn't censor the results. Also, after days on end surpassing the USA in daily cases and also often surpassing the USA in daily deaths, we can now safely say that Brazil, and not the USA, is the hottest of the hotspots in the world, with the USA close behind.

The world-wide curve has generally flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The steady rise in the growth rate in total cases is, however, not a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.

Editorial comment (I am gonna leave this here for a while): my gut tells me that we are going to see one or more very unpleasant surprises in this month as concerns COVID-19: either a massive rise in cases and deaths where we were not looking, or something new about the illness itself that we had not known before, something that will make going into the summer of 2020 (in the Northern Hemisphere) even more difficult. I am feeling this deep down in my bones. I have a very, very bad feeling about this month.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-06-011 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,089,701**
+23,330 cases today over the day before.
116,034 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
904 Americans died from COVID-19 on this day.
816,086 people have recovered, 1,157,581 are, however, still sick.​

In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

From the screenshot, you can compare this Thursday to the last four Thursday. The daily new cases for Thursdays have been all over the place. No rhyme, no reason. But in terms of daily deaths, this was the first Thursday in a long time to go under 1,000 deaths, a very, VERY positive sign.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:​

47 out of 50 states now have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with Wyoming going over the 1,000 line on 2020-06-011. Wyoming is the least populous state in the USA. At 692 or less C19 cases, it will be a while before Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will.

36 of those 46 now have more than +10,000 cases, but with "Veterans affairs" (16,668 ) and the US Military (11,083) also having more than 10,000 cases, it's then actually 38, with Veterans Affairs at really rank 28 and US military personnel at rank 34. DC (9,589) and New Mexico (9,367) will shortly also cross that gruesome line.

New daily cases:​

48 states reported at least one new case. The two states with no new cases: NE and MS.
34 states reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 35.
5 of those 33 states reported over +1,000 new cases:



I think those numbers speak very clearly for themselves. CA has been leading the pack in daily new cases - and with well over +3,000 cases - and so I expect that soon, daily deaths in CA will also rise.

A number of states that "reopened" early are showing a marked rise in daily new cases: NC, GA, AL, just to name some.

New daily deaths:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

42 of 50 states (+DC = 42) reported at least one death. The day before, it was 43. Among the states that reported no deaths are, as above, NE and MS, meaning, both of those states published absolutely nothing on 2020-06-011

Of those 44, 0 states reported more than 100 daily deaths, and that for the sixth day in a row. This means that the deaths are being more evenly spread throughout the Republic. This time, the order, from 90 deaths downward, is different:

Total deaths:
​

41 states now have at least 100 total deaths. That's more than 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. At 86, 86, 74 and 73 total deaths respectively, WV, ID and both Dakotas will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 40, 21 states in the Union now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths.


FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 116,034 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 111,000-116,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of almost ALL of ROUND ROCK, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. Right now, we are 2,139 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us slightly over 3 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

So, a little bit of drop-the-needle:

2020-05-011 (one month ago from yesterday): Niger: 832 C19 cases, 46 deaths
2020-06-011 (yesterday): Niger: 974 C19 cases, 65 deaths
Niger: +140 cases, +19 deaths
Niger growth rate over 1 month: +16.83% (cases), +41.30% (deaths)
Niger's current C19 case total is 1.17-fold larger than one month ago, it's death total is 1.41-fold larger.

2020-05-011 (one month ago from yesterday): Nigeria: 4,641 C19 cases, 150 deaths
2020-06-011 (yesterday): Nigeria: 14,554 C19 cases, 537 deaths
Nigeria: +9,913 cases, +387 deaths
Nigeria growth rate over 1 month: +213.59% (cases), +258.00% (deaths)
Nigeria's current C19 case total is 3.14-fold larger than one month ago, it's death total is 3.6-fold larger.


2020-05-011 (one month ago from yesterday): India: 70,768 C19 cases, 2,294 deaths
2020-06-011 (yesterday): India: 298,283 C19 cases, 8,501 deaths
India: +227,515 cases, +6,207 deaths
India growth rate over 1 month: +321.49% (cases), +270.58% (deaths)
Nigeria's current C19 case total is 4.21-fold larger than one month ago, it's death total is 3.7-fold larger.

In two of these three cases, those are enormous growth rates.

Also, I decided to compare Niger with Nigeria because I would be willing to bet the farm that most people don't know that both of those nations exist.

-Stat

 

To call Brazil a 'hot spot' is an understatement of our times. It's a massive erupting volcano that the President needs to immediately add to the travel ban list. One of the ways to know how bad a hot spot is, is to look at the number of positives versus the number of tests.

For most of the entire world, we can say that anywhere from 8-15% of a tested population is positive for the coronavirus. With Brazil, they're currently returning positive rates of up to 60%!(800,000 cases to slightly over 1.5 million tests.) And as Stat noted, this is with Brazil withholding the data.

Brazil is in a million times worse place then America, even with the known complaints about our response. As bad as our response was, it wasn't Brazil's. Not even close.

 

I agree.
I do not want to know what his happening in the slums of the large cities.

The Braz government was even worse than the US government in its denial of the potency of the virus
100 times worse.
So the numbers are not a surprise. I would say add about 30% to them and we might get close to reality.

 

Interesting article.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...otential-treat-coronavirus-column/5162859002/

Since I am a lazzy sucker, I wonder if anybody of you Stat freaks can dig up numbers about vaccination records in European countries.
Why Germany has around 170,000 cases and only around 9000 dead, which is a stunning low number for so many cases.
Yes Germany got that numero Uno health care system. But if we look at France, Italy, Spain and the UK with 4, 5, 6, 7 times of dead, something must be different.
Could the overall vaccination against what ever disease be that difference

 

I have a friend whose nephew is living in India. He's not in the slums, but outside them. He told her the slums are locked down - nobody allowed in or out. I doubt we'll ever know what happened in the slums of India.[/QUOTE]

 

A few months ago, Trump proudly compared the U.S. versus several EU nations, both cases and deaths per capita.

Well, that was very unwise as we will soon be top 5, top 10. both cases and deaths per capita.

In addition, several parrots in this forum have echoed Trump’s unwise comparisons, and I will expose them.

 

LOL .. yes, they did shut the gate good and early!

Let's hope that's exactly what happens for them. They earned it, by being prepared to fight back.

 

Yes, it's more likely given the bigger picture.

Odd that he was completely well at the time though - if he was completely well, which you would assume given his attendance at sporting event. For the virus to cause an infarction, noticeable illness would need to be present. It's that load on the body which precipitates the infarction in susceptible individuals. More importantly, if his partner was COVID positive, he should have been in full quarantine.

 

It's difficult to fathom this scenario. The richest and most powerful nation on earth, crumbles faster and more emphatically than some of the poorest and 'weakest' nations on earth. There is an answer somewhere, but it's unlikely to be political. I have the uncomfortable sense that the same thing would have happened no matter who was in charge. Most likely culprit is the chaos of trying to run a nation as 52 little fiefdoms, all working at cross purposes. Bad enough in the good times, but a freaking disaster in a .... disaster.

Disasters are the proving ground of unity and cohesion - always have been, always will be.

 

U.S........Currently top 10, both cases and deaths per capita

Cases per 1M pop; 6,396
Deaths per 1M pop; 353

IMO, will soon be top 5.

Trump; “We’ve done a very good job”

**** off!

 

With testing and tracing, they should be able to manage outbreaks without having to shut down.

 

Sounds bad. We don't have much surge capacity in the system. No one seems to have been willing to pay for it.

 

Are you saying that citizens can still travel out of America? And that foreign nationals can still come into the country?

Call me ignorant, but aren't ALL nations closed to ALL travel? What in the flaming heck is going on?

 

That's the idea!

We're doing same here. We're at the point now where 99% of new cases are returning travellers (who are locked up in quarantine - thank god). Only one state still seems to have a few cases floating around in the community. Other states have either had no new cases at all for weeks, or no new community transmissions for weeks. Once it gets down to this level, outbreaks are much easier to manage via solid tracing.

 

The US returns to it's 5% positive level with almost 600,000 tests.


Florida is nervous again.


Georgia is high, but pretty level.

 

I concur. When you look at the positivity rate compared to the number of tests performed and extrapolate that out for the entire population, then there is no doubt that Brazil is the hottest of all hotspots.

 

I'll be doing the daily reports a little later in my day, want to enjoy the morning with my daughter, but some short take-aways from 2020-06-012:

Our world blew past +140,000 new cases (more than 112,000 of them without the US in the picture) again re-setting the record for the 2nd heaviest day ever, after 2020-06-004. After having gone past the 7 million mark only five days ago, are now just under 7.73 million. With another +125,000 today, we would hit 7.9 million, leaving only 100,000 to already be at the 8 million mark. There is a good possibility that by the end of the weekend, we are directly under, at or just over the 8 million, with 18 days left in this month, so we are going to easily break the 10 million barrier by the end of June and go from 7-digit numbers to 8-digit numbers. It's going to be a grim milestone

Once again, three nations all posted more than +10,000 new C19 cases: the USA, Brazil and India. Record-setting is that for the first time ever, 22 nations (including the three I just mentioned) recorded more than +1,000 new cases. It had been hovering between 16 and 18 nations maximum for a long time.

We also saw a number of very small nations (most of them in my "future upperdecks" series) record more than +100 new cases, which is impressive when matched against their total cases, meaning that their C19 case growth rates are very high.

My suspicion about Russia is starting to harden - the numbers coming from that country are far too even, all the time. It sure as hell looks like authoritarian state manipulation of the numbers, spreading out infinitely worse news than we are being allowed to see over a long span of time. I could be wrong about this, but would bet the farm that in the future, my words will be born out as right on target.

I think the days of only +5-digit C19 daily gains worldwide are over with. From now on, we are looking at at least +100,000 per day, even on a "slow" day, meaning, Sundays.

With 41,901 total deaths to-date, Brazil has now surpassed the UK in total deaths and therefore has the 2nd most deaths of any nation on earth, but still far behind the US, which stood, as of 2020-06-012, at 116,825 deaths.

In terms of daily deaths, there were 10 nations to post more than 100 daily deaths, but none posted +1,000 or more. 6 of those 10 nations are in the Americas: USA, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru and Ecuador. Only 2 of those 10 are in Europe: UK and Russia (many consider Russia to be more part of Asia than Europe). The remaining 2 are in Asia: India and Pakistan. Since no nation went over +1,000 daily deaths, the dying was therefore more evenly spread among many nations, which is actually, a bad sign.

And just to let this sink in: at just under 428,000 dead worldwide, that is more than the entire populations of the US cities of Minneapolis or Oakland and just somewhat under the population of Miami, Florida. Three months ago, on 2020-03-013, the world only had 5,082 deaths to mourn. Two months ago, on 2020-04-013, that number rose to 119,212. One month ago, on 2020-05-014, that number had risen to 297,765. So, although the pandemic began in December 2019 / January 2020, more than 422,000 of the total deaths to-date have occured in the last 90 days, and 209,000 of them in just the last 60 days. I am not sure that people are realizing how many people have died worldwide from C19. And as you can suspect, surely by the middle of July at the latest, we will reach 1/2 MILLION dead worldwide. That will be essentially within 4 months time. Just imagine what 12 months without a vaccine will bring.

-Stat

 

This is where our understanding of the Covid19 virus falls apart because we are making erroneous assumptions about how it behaves once someone is infected. Up until now it is have been largely presumed to be a respiratory disease and treated accordingly while people are being killed by the other symptoms such as heart attacks and organ failures. The incidence of strokes in otherwise healthy people appears to come out of nowhere if this is a respiratory virus but all of these symptoms start to make sense when you alter your perspective and look at it a vascular disease instead of a respiratory one.

Now it becomes possible for someone to be infected and asymptomatic while the virus is attacking the blood vessels and clots are forming. Those clots are natural healing processes that are harmless unless they break free and then they can cause strokes and heart attacks and other problems.

If the Burundian president was asymptomatic and then attended a volleyball event where there was a great deal of shouting and cheering and close physical contact the viral overload in that stadium could have been considerable and enough to push his already taxed immune system beyond it's capabilities. Treatment enabled him to "recover" however it possible that the treatment also triggered the blood clots to break free and hence the heart attack that killed him.

Yes, the above is speculation on my part based upon the latest medical research regarding the vascular disease aspects of Covid19 in another thread.

And we agree that he should have been in quarantine however he was in complete denial and therefore so was the rest of the nation.

 

I disagree!

Americans can and do unite when the need arises and there is someone who can unite and lead them. Plenty of examples of this and perhaps the most recent was what occurred as a result of 9/11. A threat was identified and the leadership was there. That the leadership subsequently abused the unity does not negate that it occurred.

Take a look at most of the other nations that have successfully dealt with this Pandemic and you see both unity and leadership.

What happened here in America is unprecedented because we have a DIVISIVE leader with no interest in uniting the nation because the Pandemic was misperceived as a political threat instead of a health threat.

Ergo no unity and no leadership which spells disaster.

The above is not intended as a political attack but rather as a statement of fact. Had the leader of our nation united us and ensured that we dealt with the Pandemic in a unified and effective manner the outcome would have been significantly different and the odds of winning in November would have made him a shoo-in for a 2nd term IMO. That too is a statement of fact because that is how We the People function when we are united to deal with any threat.

 

I wish that was not the case but being a realist means having to accept what is actually happening and not just in NC but in many other states too. If the pattern holds then it does get ugly very quickly and what happened in greater NYC metro area becomes the reality on a smaller scale in Charlotte, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, Louisville, etc, etc.

Batten down the hatches and stay safe.

 

Oh, then I guess there is no problem.

What you said was baseless speculation and personal commentary. I've avoided responding in kind out of respect for you and in consideration of your recent loss. But I can only tolerate so much BS before I reciprocate.

The disease absolutely is an affliction of the extremely old and the extremely sick. The evidence proves that beyond any doubt.

The economic damage is entirely the result of the media and the government's response.

What you said is indefensible on multiple levels. Socialization is absolutely essential to human health and happiness. To suggest otherwise is outrageous.

Do you have a shred of evidence to suggest otherwise?

The death rate has been declining for weeks everywhere in the world regardless of what policies were pursued by political authorities. It simply doesn't matter what humans do because the virus spreads according to its own logic. It doesn't care about asinine "social distancing" and masks, which can only be effective as long as they're done 100% of the time, which is physically impossible for a social animal species like humans.

What I've learned is that the essential freedoms our ancestors fought and died for over the course of centuries, and which they valued above all else, have been meekly surrendered in a matter of months by a population paralyzed by fear and weakness.

Meanwhile, we've witnessed the most radical transfer of wealth from the bottom up in the history of the world. Trillions of dollars funneled into the pockets of the mega-rich combined with unprecedented consolidation of wealth and power in the hands of a few, to say nothing of the totalitarian powers now wielded by governments across the country and the world.

All because of a virus with a 0.2% mortality rate.