Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Actually, we do, because almost all viruses are seasonal in nature. And there is zero reason to belief COVID is an exception to that.

 

Except that there has been ZERO evidence that Covid19 is seasonal.

It attacked in the Winter and it is still attacking with no sign of let up now in Summer.

 

65% of COVID deaths in Mississippi were 70 or older. 86% were 60 or older.

But wait, there's more...



Over 60% of COVID deaths in Mississippi had hypertension.

Over 48% had cardiovascular disease.

Over 40% had diabetes.

None of this means their deaths didn't matter.

None of this means we shouldn't take reasonable precautions on their behalf.

But imposing an authoritarian crackdown on society as a whole is not a reasonable precaution. And that was always obvious, even from the beginning, which is why the Swedes did not do it. So unless you want to argue that Swedish people have some unique intelligence that the rest of the world lacks, I'm not sure how you can rationalize the "mitigation strategies" employed by governments in the USA.

 

You mean aside from the fact that it's a virus.

Completely false. The rate of COVID deaths has been steadily declining everywhere in the world, including the USA.

 

Or if there have been temporary increases in other kinds of deaths like suicides, drug overdoses, heart disease, cancer, etc.

 

Intellectual consistency is germane to every thread and debate.

I understand why some want to avoid having that discussion.

 

Meaningless drivel!

Prove it!

 

Those were not my own words. In fact, I specifically quoted from the study in question that the one-third figure is almost certainly an undercount of the true figure. In States with robust data, the proportion of COVID deaths ranges between 50% and 80%.

What is that supposed to prove?

Of course it works.

(The Wall Street Journal) The Covid Age Penalty

New patient data offers a guide to opening while protecting seniors.

LINK: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-age-penalty-11592003287

About 80% of Americans who have died of Covid-19 are older than 65, and the median age is 80. A review by Stanford medical professor John Ioannidis last month found that individuals under age 65 accounted for 4.8% to 9.3% of all Covid-19 deaths in 10 European countries and 7.8% to 23.9% in 12 U.S. locations.

For most people under the age of 65, the study found, the risk of dying from Covid-19 isn’t much higher than from getting in a car accident driving to work. In California and Florida, the fatality risk for the under-65 crowd is about equal to driving 16 to 17 miles per day. While higher in hot spots like New York (668 miles) and New Jersey (572 miles), the death risk is still lower than the public perceives.​

Mathematical studies of the virus have shown it doesn't matter what policies are pursued, the virus behaves the same regardless.

(The Times of Israel) The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus

LINK: https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-e...wth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus/

A similar pattern – rapid increase in infections to a peak in the sixth week, and decline from the eighth week – is common everywhere, regardless of response policies

By ISAAC BEN-ISRAEL | 19 April 2020, 9:27 pm

The following is the text of a study by Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, first published on April 16, 2020. (Ben-Israel discussed his research on Israeli TV on April 13, saying that simple statistics show the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.)

The following article aims at examining the development of the coronavirus disease in Israel since its inception 56 days ago (8 weeks).

It turns out that the peak of the virus’ spread has been behind us for about two weeks now, and will probably fade within two more weeks.

Our analysis shows that this is a constant pattern across countries. Surprisingly, this pattern is common to countries that have taken a severe lockdown, including the paralysis of the economy, as well as to countries that implemented a far more lenient policy and have continued in ordinary life.

The data indicates that the lockdown policy can be stopped within a few days and replaced by a policy of moderate social distancing.​

The financial burden from putting 40 million Americans out of work is far greater.

 

Viruses are seasonal. There is no reason to believe COVID is any different.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-e...wth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus/

 

I wasn't talking to you, so I'm not sure why you feel insulted.

Mistakes are far easier to prevent than the spread of a virus.

Same could be said for influenza, heart disease, cancer, medical mistakes, car crashes, etc.

But the significance of those deaths pales in comparison to COVID deaths. Because COVID deaths are the only thing that matter now. Everything else in life is now in a distant second place. Except protesting against racism. Apparently, that is the only thing more important than preventing the spread of COVID.

 

Trolling, taunting and insulting is never germane to any thread. Nothing that you wrote in that posting reflected even a smidge of intellectual consistency.

I will refer you to the OP title and the content of the OP so that next time, you can write something that is actually relevant to the thread.

I have given you more chances than I usually give to people who invariably end up on a long train to cyberia. Learn from this moment.

STRIKE 1.

 

This is why it is always good to stick to the raw numbers, do simple math and let the calculations tell their own story. Which is what I have been doing since the inception of this thread.

 

More meaningless drivel! Not ALL viruses are seasonal.

That article is from LAST APRIL so congratulations on just proving yourself WRONG!

 

Indeed. COVID-19 is far more than just a respiratory disease. It attacks the entire cardiovascular system with the most likely entry point being through the mouth and nose, destroying healthy lung tissue and from there, destroying vein-tissue, not to mention what is going on inside the human brain, the effects of which we may not know for months on end, all of which together explains damaged kidneys, damaged livers, ripped up stomachs, COVID-19 toes, lack of smell, lack of taste, the whole nine yards.

C19 is triple, if not, quadruple threat.

As I very clearly indicated at the very beginning of this thread, which has now blown past 10,000 postings, just as bad off are going to be those who live, but with organ damage inside their bodies, thus drastically reducing their quality of life and being a strain on health care systems all over the world - on top of the economic upheaval that C19 has wrought upon the world.

 

Let's be really clear about this: on an open thread, anyone can respond to anything they want. It's not your place to be telling people, couched in other phrasing, whether they can respond or not. So, you can feel free to cap that fascist vein right here and right now.

STRIKE 2.

 

I haven't trolled, taunted, or insulted anyone.

I merely pointed out the lack of consistency in their position.

Are you a MOD or something? Are you threatening to use your powers to silence me?

 

I never said otherwise.

That never happened. You're just making things up.

You're the one threatening to have me silenced, so doesn't that make you the fascist?

 

We are going to need to implement a system of global healthcare if we want to prevent something like this from happening again and when we discover the full cost of dealing with all of those long lasting effects the cost of a global healthcare system is going to seem cheap in comparison.

Prevention is always better than cure however I suspect that greed and politics will stand in the way of our achieving a global healthcare system in our lifetmes.

 

Which viruses are not seasonal?

Yes, the article is from April. We've known since then that COVID death rates are on the decline. You're just months behind the data at this point.

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-012, there was one analysis of size:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-011, posted 2020-06-012, 17:00 GMT +2, ‚#10028.

To confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. On some days, WORLDOMETER also provides a "2 days ago" function as well, which is the case today.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-06-012 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

*******7,726,006*******
+140,907 cases today over yesterday, second largest daily case additions thus far.
There are 122 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 427,689 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
Among the nations: the USA is rank 1 in total deaths; Brazil is now rank 2, ahead of UK.
843 Brazilians, 791 Americans and 587 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

2020-060-012 was the fourth Friday in a row to have the world jump more than +100,000 cases. In fact, the world has had more than +100,000 new cases in 16 of the last 17 days. +100,000 or more C19 cases per day is becoming the new normal.

Less people died on this Friday than on each of the four Fridays before.

As you can see, recovered cases remained over 50%, edging upward to 51%. This is, of course, a good sign.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +200 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 122 nations in the "thousand club", with French Guiana going over the 1,000 line on 2020-06-012. At 980 and 978 respectively, Cyprus and Niger are next up to cross over the 1,000 line.

Of those 122, 59 are now in the "10,000 club". Currently at 9,938, the Czech Republic is next up.

16 of those 59 are now at 100,000 or more. At 97,943, Canada is up next. However, Canada's daily case load has slowed down considerably, a very hopeful sign for that nation.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:



This time, the USA lead in new cases over Brazil, and with India, all three had more than +10,000 new cases apiece.

67 countries had +100 or more new cases, 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 65. Of those 65,a record-setting 21 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 20. If you look at the list of top cases, you will see that they come from all over the world, but the Europe is the least represented on that upper list.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are now 75 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with DRC and Mali going over the 100 line on 2020-06-012. That is more than 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. At 96, 96, 85 and 84 total deaths respectively, Oman, Kenya, Somalia and Cuba are next to cross over the line.

Of those 73, 32 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There are now 10 nations between 500-1000 total deaths and you can be guaranteed that by the end of this month, most, if not all of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, none of them posted over +100 daily deaths except the UK (+202). Italy, France, Germany and Spain had +56, +28, +12 and 0, respectively. Yes, you read that correctly: on 2020-06-010, Spain recorded ZERO C19 deaths, and for the fifth day in a row! There can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is receding.

10 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 9 the day before). 6 of those 10 countries are from the Americas.

I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. Those nations are marked in the upper screenshots in this analysis (in green).

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 21 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with South Africa having crossed over the 1 million line on 2020-06-011:



The USA has now performed 23.8 million tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 14.2 million tests (300,000 more than the day before).

Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, is now at 1,364,423.

Facit: on 2020-06-012, the world again saw once again and for the third day in a row, the second largest raw-number addition of cases thus far and sailed over both 7.6 and 7.7 million to land at 7.73 million total C19 cases. We are easily on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at 116,825 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. A new extrapolation indicated 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running.

Brazil, currently at 41,901 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, overtook the UK in number of total deaths and is now rank 2 among the C19 dead, behing the USA.

The world-wide curve has generally flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The steady rise in the growth rate in total cases is, however, not a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.

Editorial comment (I am gonna leave this here for a while): my gut tells me that we are going to see one or more very unpleasant surprises in this month as concerns COVID-19: either a massive rise in cases and deaths where we were not looking, or something new about the illness itself that we had not known before, something that will make going into the summer of 2020 (in the Northern Hemisphere) even more difficult. I am feeling this deep down in my bones. I have a very, very bad feeling about this month.


-Stat

 

Shingles!

Another load of bovine excrement that has no connection whatsoever to REALITY!



Charts above show an INCREASE in New Daily Cases followed by an INCREASE in New Daily Deaths as a consequence of REOPENING the economy and has NOTHING to do with seasonality.

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-06-012 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,116,922**
+27,221 cases today over the day before.
116,825 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
791 Americans died from COVID-19 on this day.
841,934 people have recovered, 1,158,163 are, however, still sick.​

In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

From the screenshot, you can compare this Friday to the last four Fridays. 2020-06-012 was the largest instance of daily new cases (of the five Fridays here) but less than 2020-05-008, which was the Friday before that. The very best news is that the daily deaths on this Friday were under +1,000 and for the second Friday in a row.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:​

47 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. At 706 or less C19 cases, it will be a while before Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will.

36 of those 46 now have more than +10,000 cases, but with "Veterans affairs" (16,865) and the US Military (11,439) also having more than 10,000 cases, it's then actually 38, with Veterans Affairs at really rank 28 and US military personnel at rank 34. DC (9,654) and New Mexico (9,526) will shortly also cross that gruesome line.

There has also once again been a noticeable uptick in C19 among the Navajo Nations.

New daily cases:​

50 states reported at least one new case.
37 states reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 34.
5 of those 33 states reported over +1,000 new cases:



I think those numbers speak very clearly for themselves. CA has been leading the pack in daily new cases - and with well over +3,000 cases - and so I expect that soon, daily deaths in CA will also rise.

A number of states that "reopened" early are showing a marked rise in daily new cases: NC, GA, AL, just to name some. Alabama's daily C19 case-load has doubled over the numbers we saw from that state one week ago.

One of the states that remains the steadiest all the time, around rank 20, is OH.

New daily deaths:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

43 of 50 states (+DC = 44) reported at least one death. The day before, it was 42.

Of those 44, 0 states reported more than 100 daily deaths, and that for the SEVENTH day in a row. This means that the deaths are being more evenly spread throughout the Republic. This time, the order, from 90 deaths downward, is more like it was in April and May:



This time, in a total surprise, NY, IL and NJ lead in the daily deaths, although NY's death total is between 1/10th and 1/15th of what it often was in April and parts of May.
This time, CA was 4th, MA 5th and GA, 6th.

Total deaths:
​

41 states now have at least 100 total deaths. That's more than 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. At 88, 87, 74 and 74 total deaths respectively, WV, ID and both Dakotas will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 40, 21 states in the Union now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths.


FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 116,825 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 117,000-126,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of almost ALL of ANN ARBOR, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. Right now, we are 2,230 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us slightly over 3 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

Wanted to post this article for the sake of looking into it further at a later point:

Even in a group of entirely healthy young people, only 60% of those infected with coronavirus developed antibodies

 

Only partially true. Since the article was written in April, it could not have known that the peak would be reached on 2020-05-006 and began to ebb in the SECOND week of May:



There was an enormous one-time spike on 2020-04-028 due to 4,000 extra deaths being reported after the fact in the USA, but the real peak slowly reached was on 2020-05-005.

You can see the complete arc from circa 6.6% death rate on 2020-04-016 to circa 6.6% death rate on 2020-015-016.

what IS true is that the death rate has been gradually receding since then, which is a good thing.

Sure you did. You pointed to "Liberals" as a group. It was a fly-by attack on an entire group of people.

No, I am not a mod, and no, I am not threatening you.

If you are psychologically this insecure within your own person about an anoymous person on the internet simply debating you, then perhaps psychotherapy would be better for you than a politics message board.

Although I am not a mod, I certainly can tell a person when he or she is getting dangerously close to being placed on ignore by me. And you are now more than dangerously close to earning a one-way train ticket to Cyberia from me.

See how that works?

This is now my FINAL appeal to you to stick with the material at hand and NOT get personal with people.

Let's see if that message finally gets through to you, or not.

 

One of the issues with studies(not necessarily attacking this or any particular study, just advancing the discussion) is that the study can only follow its test subjects, so long as they are in observation. So for instance, it's possible that the other 40% will develop antibodies at some point, just they won't be analyzed/counted when they do.

I want to make some other theoretical observations. Why is it that we're still dealing with Covid-19 cases? What is the situation on the ground really looking like. Well, we know now that 14-days isn't some magical period, but for a while we had assumed it would be the case.(And let's presume in a best case scenario that it was the case for some, but not for all.)

If we also further assume that everybody acted on that assumption, once the 14 days had passed, these people(let's leave aside the symptomatic, asymptomatic, whatever it just clouds the discussion) once again congregated in our cities and streets(especially given the protests that occurred).

The following scenarios ended up happening:

A: Even if you never had coronavirus, there were still Persons W/Coronavirus in the local/general communities. Hence infections happened where it otherwise would not have happened if those persons didn't come into contact with otherwise healthy people. This is what South Korea/Germany/China are managing really well and is not yet a US Government policy./

B: A person may have followed through the 14 days, but still didn't clear the coronavirus or still hadn't been adversely attacked. These silent agents of coronavirus if you will, have incidentally helped spread the virus to group A.

We need to pinpoint a better average than 14 days(which is no longer the average really.) We might want to double that to 28 days(aka: A month really.) Now most people would hate that, but if we were told that if we all dealt with a month of quarantine to essentially utterly reduce the number of cases that argument could still be made.

It would be easier still if we could find a way to contract trace and still respect our privacy and assure the government won't use it for nefarious purposes.