Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

That's insane. Your leaders should be pressuring EVERYONE to get tested.

 

Well, other than lobbying against it(which I agree is a dumb move), I think Trump is overtly leaning towards the idea of minimalist government and state power over the federal government.(This is in part, fueled by the spat in mid-April over who had the power.) Trump's basically saying "you go do it then!"

And yeah, it's immature but we've got to recognize that both sides have been immature that's the only way we can forgive each other.
If both Trump and the government cooperate, I think we'll start to see good results.

Leave the election barbs aside for now, and focus on healing our country and hopefully the planet. That's what we should all aim for.

 

Orange county where Orlando and Disney is had 3 deaths in 3 weeks. They had 52k tests the other day which showed an increase in positive results. I am sure every time they have large testing in any large city, there would be similar results. Mainly, Florida as a whole is being judged by the pandemic hitting Miami and Dade county hard.

 

They ARE.

States just do not have equal access to testing.

 

Trumpt has NOT said to states "you go do it".

Trump has lobbyed states to NOT take steps against COVID spread. He has demanded that they open.

He's even threatened states that have imposed certain limits.

Also, he's lobbied hard against medial science on masks, testing, and other components - undermining the possibility of states taking a medical science based approach to COVID.

Controled plans for opening our economy depend on testing - something CDC has strongly pointed out and is a central feature of the administration plan that they created for opening safely. BUT, Trump is defunding the federal testing effort! That's not something that states can reasonably pick up.

Now with COVID inpatient care costing a million dollars or more, Trump demands that we dump 23 million Americans off of healthcare coverage and eliminating preexisting condition coverage.

Your comments on "maturity" need some serious explanation.

 

The problem states are starting to move the national needle.






If history serves us, we should see the death rate start to go up towards 800 a day.

 

https://www.conservativereview.com/...hwestern-cases-driven-border-crossers-mexico/

So, there's the factor of other people(namely Mexicans) crossing the border with COVID-19 symptoms and their cases might be inflating American numbers.

 

I agree 100%. But the top leader in the USA is a ****ing moron who believes covid to be a liberal hoax to make him look bad.

 

Unfortunately that isn't true at all. Where I live, we had dramatically lowering numbers as we increased testing.

All testing does is reveal the extent of your problem. If your number (of new infections) is decreasing, the tests will show that. If they're increasing, it will show that.

 

Problem: success in Australia is now appearing to be breeding increasing resentment toward continuing lock-down measures, among increasing numbers of the population. Already the PM is facing off with the state premiers re opening state borders (in a typical "don't come here" response by state premiers seeing cases rise in other states).

We will be looking closely at the US over the next fortnight/three weeks; if the death count continues to fall in the US as it has been doing recently, we will see that covid-19's feared mortality is perhaps not to be feared as much as we thought, (though admittedly that issue is not straightforward either).

It's a pity the US doesn't demonstrate that 'exceptionalism' in the most effective way possible, namely, the US government could support its citizens in a lock-down as long as required, simply by changing the digits in the bank accounts of ALL laid-off and unemployed workers, (Hey, living at home - with appropriate outdoor excursions - would be regarded as a holiday by most people, if the financial security of all ie, ability to pay all bills inc. food, rent and internet, was guaranteed by the US government. Note: the discretionary consumer economy would be much reduced...who cares?)

 

Yes, this was their primary fail.

 

And it will be Australia's too, if the government increasingly relies on charities - or provision of the dole, or forcing indiviuals to raid their superannuation accounts - to fill the breach, in a misguided attempt to reduce the now massive public debt incurred by the covid-19 rescue package, owing to obsolete neoliberal debt and defict mythology. (See Stephanie Kelton's new book "The Debt and Deficit Myth").

eg, government sacking ABC employees - to 'save" money - while private enterprise (in media and travel industries) is doing the very same thing (sacking employees) is exactly the wrong policy choice to engender post-covid19 economic recovery.

See the limitations resulting from your lack of macroeconomic understanding?

 

Relax, BW. Light the fire, pour yourself a nice cuppa, put your feet up .. and be glad we did what we had to do.

 

MADRID (Reuters) - Spanish virologists have found traces of the novel coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the COVID-19 disease was identified in China, the University of Barcelona said on Friday.

The discovery of virus genome presence so early in Spain, if confirmed, would imply the disease may have appeared much earlier than the scientific community thought.

The University of Barcelona team, who had been testing waste water since mid-April this year to identify potential new outbreaks, decided to also run tests on older samples.

"The levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low but were positive," research leader Albert Bosch was quoted as saying by the university.

The research has been submitted for a peer review.

Dr Joan Ramon Villalbi of the Spanish Society for Public Health and Sanitary Administration told Reuters it was still early to draw definitive conclusions.

"When it's just one result, you always want more data, more studies, more samples to confirm it and rule out a laboratory error or a methodological problem," he said.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23X2HQ

 

HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-026, there were some other important analyses:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-025, posted 2020-06-026, 09:32 GMT +2, #10492.
Florida reports +8,942 new C19 cases, posted 2020-06-026, 20:59 GMT +2, #10501.
Late evening interim short analysis, 2020-06-026, 23:31 GMT +2, #10518.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-06-026 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

*********9,898,547*********
+196,161 cases today over yesterday, an all-time record.
2020-06-026 was the last day in the 7-digit-number zone.
There are now 130 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 496,079 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,090 of them were on this day.
1,055 Brazilian, 860 US-Amerian, 736 Mexican & 381 Indian deaths were recorded on this day.
On 2020-06-027, the world will exceed 10 million total C19 cases and one-half million total C19 deaths.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

We have now seen 26 straight days of +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 30 out of that last 31 days, save 2020-05-031. 10 of the last 11 days saw more than +140,000 new C19 cases per day. In other words, every single day in June 2020 has seen +100,000 (or far more) daily cases and the probability is extremely high that when all is said and done, every single day in the month of June, 2020 will have seen over +100,000 cases per day.

Further, the daily new cases for 2020-06-026 far exceeded any day on record, indicating a week that is going to be far heavier than even last week was.

There is again a +case disparity, and this time also a +new deaths disparity between my excel table and WorldOMeter. Please read the analysis for 2020-06-022 for the explanation. It's pretty self-explanatory. This time, both disparities have to do only with the USA.

The weekly average in daily cases for last week was: +150,696 per day, a massive jump over 2 weeks ago, which was +128,838 per day.

The weekly average in daily deaths for last week was: +4,917, a sharp rise over 2 weeks ago, which reflected an average of +4,300 deaths per day.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +200 C19 cases and above):
​

130-66-19-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 130 nations in the "thousand club", with Malawi having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-06-026. I forgot to mention Benin on 2020-06-025. Ooops. At between 992 and 919 cases, respectively, Cyprus, Burkina Faso, Uruguay and Georgia are next up to cross over the 1,000 line.

Of those 130, 66 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

19 of those 66 nations are at 100,000 or more. Currently at 92,784, Quatar will cross over the 100,000 in the next days.

Of those 19, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil. At 620,794 C19-cases, Russia would seem to be next, but India, currently at 509,446 C19-cases, is growing cases twice as quickly as Russia and will very likely get there first. In the month of July, 2020, India will surpass Russia in the number of total cases and then hold rank 3 for a good, long while. At or before that time, I will open up an excel tab just for India.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

76-24-3​

76 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 76. Of those 76, a record-continuing 24 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was also 24.

Of those 19, 3 nations had over +10,000 cases: Brazil, the USA, and India. This has been going on for days now.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

82-36-9-1​

There are now 82 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Ghana having crossed over the 100-line on 2020-06-026. At between 95-85 current total deaths respectively, Senegal, Haiti, Somalia, Ethiopia and Cuba are next to cross over the line, probably all 5 in the next 2-3 days.

Of those 80, 36 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There 13 nations between 500-1000 total deaths. The numbers for Japan and Austria are barely moving, but they are for the other 10 and you can be guaranteed that in the last 6 days of this month, some of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

Of those 36, there are 9 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 8, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



Brazil, USA, Mexico, India, UK, Peru, Russia and Chile lead with the most daily deaths.

Because of the one discrepancy, the USA actually recorded 860 new deaths on 2020-06-026, only, 197 of them were shunted to the day before, 2020-06-025.

11 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 11 the day before). 6 of those 11 countries are from the Americas.

This was the first day to my knowledge where the neighboring states of Iran and Iraq both had more than +100 daily deaths on the same day.

If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, there can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is mostly receding, the outliers being both the UK (which was slow to respond) and off and on, Sweden (which decided to ignore conventional wisdom and do directly for herd immunity). Germany has detected two hotspots and immediately locked-down the entire area.

I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. A halfway-point update was just released:

Future Upperdecks #1 and #2: the halfway point, posted 2020-06-014, 09:39, #10104.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 27 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece:




At 998,736 tests, Denmark is next to cross over the 1,000 line.

China has now performed 90.4 million COVID-19 tests and now leads the field by far. This leads me to believe that very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. The USA has now performed 31.4 million tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 18.4 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections and in terms of total deaths, has performed 2.8 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-06-026, the world gained over +196,000 new C19 cases, setting a new worldwide record and coming in right under 9.9 million total C19 cases. And remember, we just broke over the 9 million line on 2020-06-021, so we have gained +870,000 cases in just 5 days time. We are easily on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at 127,640 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. The USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 26% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA. A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 56,109 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. Brazil's calculated average from last week was +1,039 so very likely, between July 31st and August 15th of this year, this will happen.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is picking up substantially. It is still logistical, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging.


-Stat

 

First blame China while you stood still and watched thousands across the world being inflected, call it a hoax for 3 months, then after 5 months of denial blame your usual Scape goat. The virus got into Mexico from the US

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

There were some important in-between analyses for the USA on 2020-06-026:
Florida reports +8,942 new C19 cases, posted 2020-06-026, 20:59 GMT +2, #10501.
Late evening iterim short analysis, 2020-06-026, 23:31 GMT +2, #10518.

In the analysis for Sunday, 2020-06-021, I explained moving from analysing the USA in terms of 50 States to 57 "Units". You can read the rationale for this in that analysis.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-06-026 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,552,956**
A record-setting +48,368 cases, considerably more than any day before.
Eleven days in a row of +25,000 or more new cases - a record.
Further, seven of the last eight days had +30,000 or more C19 cases, a record.
FLORIDA recorded just under +9,000 new C19 cases on 2020-06-026!
127,640 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA; 860 of them were recorded on this day.
1,068,703 people have recovered, 1,356,613 are, however, still sick.
The recovered % sunk again slightly on 2020-06-026. Watching for a trend.
​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You can see that in terms of daily cases, this Friday far, far, far outstrips any other day on record and is an indicator of a very heavy C19-week in the USA, which, if last week is our guide, will have peaked on 2020-06-026. Wait and see. Who would have ever thought that the USA would be closing in on +50,000 new confirmed C19 infections PER DAY?!?!?

There is a disparity in the USA numbers, both in terms of total new cases and in terms of total new deaths, because a number of cases/deaths were shunted back to 2020-06-025. They are, however, being correctly accounted for here.

The real concern here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 3-4 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, GA, TX, AZ and CA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C-19 cases:

57: 52-41-15-7​

52 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 47 of them are US States. At 866 or less C19 cases, it will be a while before the states of Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will. However, at 278, the pacific Territories may take more than a year to get there.

41 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. Currently at 7,818 cases, Oregon will probably be next, but it will take a while. This kind of thing tends to happen in spurts: a bunch of Units (mostly, states) will slowly get close to a milestone and within days, they all jump over said milestone.

Of those 41, 15 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Ohio and Connecticut are likely to go over the 50,000 line in the next 4-5 days. Ohio may jump over the +50,000 line today, 2020-06-027. Wait and see.

Of those 15, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases.

New daily cases:

​

57: 57-40-10!​

57 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 50 of those 57 being states.
40 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 37 of those 40 Units were states.

A record breaking 10 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, all of them being states. The US military also came very close to +1,000 new cases. 4 of them, FL, CA, TX and AZ recorded between +3,000 and just under +9,000 cases respectively. Florida's +8,942 is an eye-popping number.

Both Carolinas are also among those 10. Also, Ohio joined this rubrik for the very first time, I believe. 7 of the 10 states are from the Deep South. 1 are from the West-SW. None are from the Northeast but 1 is from the Midwest.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 43-19-0​

44 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 41 of them are US States.

Of those 43, 19 reported deaths in double digits, from +10 to +63. 18 of those 19 Units are US States. The other Units was: Veterans Affairs.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 45-24-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 92, 90, 87 and 78 total deaths respectively, WV, ID and both Dakotas will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 45, 24 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 23 of those 24 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs.

Of those 24 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS: for now and then, total tests administered (top 27):​

This is just to get a feel for where the tests are being administered. 7 US states have administered more than 1,000,000 COVID-19 tests.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 127,640 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of literally more than ALL of TOPEKA or all of LAFAYETTE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 3,245 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us more than 4.5 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

Easy for you maybe, ignoring the plight of kids whose employment has been destroyed possibly forever by this virus, as small businesses in CBDs close down (as more people work from home) and companies in media, entertainment and travel are decimated.

eg, when do you expect "full employment" (always a fraudulent figure, even at the best of times) to return in Australia?

 

No. There is no "both sides" to this. It's a medical issue. And leaders are supposed to lead.

 

Your point being??

 

NO. How can that be, since Trump closed the border? Are you saying that he failed to close it?

When all else fails, blame "foreigners".

Well, that won't work in this case, because COVID-19 does to see "foreigners". All it does is to find human hosts to infect...

Really, the National Review, once a halfway respectable publication, needs to do some serious thinking about maturity. History is going to judge the writers of this drivel very, very harshly.

 

Good work, bro. You as well as a number of others (here's lookin atcha, Mr. T!) contribute cogent, useable info on this thread, for which I am very thankful.

 

MARCHING TOWARD 10,000,000...
​

So, today is "8-digit-watch" day. Here is how things stand right now:



Here the excel-table:



We are now less than 84,000 C19 cases away from the 10,000,000 mark. Also, we are now less than 3,000 away from a half-million worldwide total deaths.

I am suspecting that by about 8 PM my time in Germany, we will either be very close to 10,000,000 or go over it.

 

Worth noting that NY was NOT in that group of states either.



The second wave is PILING on TOP of the first wave which is just nucking futz!

To give credit where it is due some governors are putting the brakes on and trying to bring this back under control but what is utterly NEFARIOUS is what is happening in FL where the cases are out of control and the governor is disingenuously pointing at state-wide hospital capacity while hotspot hospitals in his state are maxing out.

Just to reinforce the folly of reopening the economy too soon in a Pandemic this can be seen in Africa too where the only nation doing any significant testing has been reporting New Cases in the Top Ten nations for the last 5 days in a row.

Technically for ALL of the above the Daily Deaths are still in the low range but it is foolish to take that as a "positive" since we already know that deaths are a LAGGING indicator.

As @Statistikhengst mentioned above the world will reach 10 million cases today and with America now over 2.5 million of those cases and the 2nd wave piling on top of the first I realized that my original March 10th LOW END estimate of 200,000 deaths is probably going to become a gruesome reality. You have no idea how devastating it feels to come to that realization. What makes it worse is that those deaths COULD have been AVOIDED!

Take care and stay safe and be kind to yourself and others because there is still a long way to go before this ends.

 

This is still part of the first wave. Historically, second, third etc, waves occur after the previous wave has all but disappeared. This virus has not yet "all but disappeared" and seems unaffected by seasonal temperatures