Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Mississippi is finally first in something, though I could do without this one.

On Thursday, Mississippi State Department of Health reported a new record-high of 1,775 cases and 48 deaths in one day.

Data shows Mississippi has the highest rate of positive cases in the United States over the past two weeks at more than 21%.

The data also puts Mississippi at the highest rate of ICU capacity filled, with 98% of ICU beds occupied in the state. Alabama and Georgia are the only other states with ICUs filled above 90%.

When asked about the high positivity rate, (Governor) Reeves said the numbers should be looked at with “more context” and attributed it to the method of testing.

He says because of the increase in cases, death rate is going to follow, with many of those coming from people not in long-term care facilities.

So what is the Governor's remedy?

Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves added 8 more counties to his mask mandate as COVID-19 numbers continue to rise.

This is the third time he has added more counties and what has this piecemeal remedy brought us? Simply being #1 in positives. This is not being proactive. This is closing the barn door after the horse has left. Guaranteed that we will see more counties added as their numbers go up and that again will be too little, too late.

What I'm seeing is acceptance of a disaster and the mindset of government only to not overwhelm the hospital system, though clearly that approach is failing. Government has surrendered to this virus and its actions only ensures a slow motion disaster rolling back and forth from one area to the next.

Oh, and our Guvnor wants to see schools open "if possible". Yeah, right.

 

Without any intention of being disparaging my recollection is that whenever I have looked at state by state statistics about issues like education, healthcare, poverty, etc, etc it was commonplace to see your state ranked near the bottom.

Given that there was probably only lip service ever paid to addressing those issues in the past could that failure be why Mississippi is having these high infection rates now? In essence a state government that has consistently neglected to provide for it's citizens and now they are paying the price for that past neglect?

 

Your hypothesis is a little too abstract for me. In regards to the Coronavirus, we simply opened up too much, too soon. It's not that much different than other states. We pretty much flung the doors open around Memorial Day, allowing bars, restaurants and casinos to operate pretty much as normal, with only occupancy restrictions.

The high % of positives is partly driven by the fact that asymptomatic people aren't generally getting tested unless compelled by their job. The actual raw number of cases is more about opening up too much before we had met the CDC recommendations. Many states did this and we are seeing the results.

What sets Mississippi apart is the high % of positives and the high % of ICU beds occupied. Also, not to be ignored is that we are now having daily deaths about triple where we were for most of the time the virus has been spreading.

My complaint is the half measures our Governor is taking in the face of all this practically guarantees even worse data coming in the near future.

 

Qatar, Bahrain, Chile completely out of control.
But Chile's death figures are still strange.

 

Herman Cain is a strange case. On the one hand a guy with his education should know better.
But he had rather severe and nasty cancer, maybe he did not give a .... about what killed him.

But than there is the question of example.

 

Ironically, the Taiwanese were wearing masks two weeks prior to their first confirmed case.

What’s the definition of proactivity; Acting in anticipation of future problems.

Here’s another example;

Flashback; When I was working in Peru, Head Office shipped us a drilling fluid gas seperator,
well-packed in a huge crate.

One week later/the day we needed the damn thing, guess what? Several components were missing.

I asked; Has anyone bothered to check/inspect what was inside?

Answer; NOPE, was told to; “Leave it until we need it”.

Well folks, is it just pure common sense to inspect your equipment prior to installing?

——————-

Now, let’s analyze the following statement;

Trump; “I knew Covid19 was a pandemic LONG BEFORE it was declared a pandemic”

March 12, 2020; WHO declared Covid19 a pandemic

IMO, “Long before” means; at least several months, thus, mid January.

From mid January to mid March.....at least 60 days

March 24th, 2020.....ABC News

NYC Doctors describe being on the frontlines in U.S......the items they’ve received have passed their expiration dates....California has distributed masks past their expiration from the......

And then,

Trump blamed Obama.

PROACTIVITY; Acting in anticipation of future problems.

Trump’s loyalists response; “Trump inherited the stockpiles”

Well, from January 20th, 2017 to mid March 2020, has anyone bothered to check/inspect the stockpiles?

 

Good analogy!

 

This thread is being followed by a lot of science lovers, so I place this here so you can share when necessary. This is so beautifully written.

 

One word: Lithium and Atacama.

Ok, that was 3 words.

 

I love it.

Groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehl

 

I know the Atacama to fooking well. I am still considered the only person in known history to have crossed it on foot.
Probably the dumbest thing I have ever done in my live, 81, Antofagasta to Ouage/ Bolivian border, 4 weeks, 80 pounds on the back.
That was twice a rather unpleasant close call with water, hitting the wide spread out oases, walking with my Bundeswehr Compass.
But past 3000 meter altitude and 40 C, no real Horizon, it becomes rather difficult to keep direction. Missed the oasis twice. The border is 6000 meters in altitude.
After that I spent a week in prison in La Paz. They had one of their revelutions, #189 or so, borders had been closed, which I did not know. Ilegal crossing of the border, or what ever.

That were interesting times. Quiet different from todays interesting times.

May I make a recommendation, if you ever get to La Paz, the prison is not a good hostel, I would recommend one of the more traditional Hotels and Motels.

But I still do not get the extremely high covid number, for such a under populated country and such low death numbers.
They are doing around 18,000 per million, which ranks them in the top 5. But their death numbers are putting them at the bottom.

What is wrong with that picture.

 

With old age comes wisdom!

 

Pretty big uptick today, but it's not from the old hot spots.


California actually had a good day.

Hard telling what the hurricane will do to Florida.

News of a kiddie outbreak in Georgia.

 

Was it the San Pedro prison?

 

Good morning, PFers!

The travelling part of my vacation with Statdaughter starts today, my business is now officially on vacation until around August 10th. But of course, prompt at the begin it's raining cats and dogs, my puberteen has decided that sleeping in is much more fun that house-chores with Stat-papa before we pack up the car and so I have time today to get out the end-of-month analyses after all. Kismet, I say: Kismet.

Here the EXCEL-Tables for the worldwide stats, also for the four top nations.

I've highlighted the one-month (31 day) span from EOM June 2020 to EOM July 2020 in red for the world and USA (and will calculate some quick values) and in blue for the rest (so you can do some math in your heads for yourselves). It's a good mental excercise.


As you can see, the world added a little less than +7.2 million (+7,167,917) C19 cases and almost +170,000 (+169,011) deaths from EOM June 2020 to EOM July 2020. That's a 67.76% growth rate in cases and a 32.93% growth rate in deaths in just one month's time. And in spite of these huge numbers, none of this is exponential. It is all logistical - a slow, deadly burn without end.



The USA added a little less than 2.0 million (+1,978,036) C19 cases and almost +27,000 (+26,625) deaths from EOM June 2020 to EOM July 2020. That's a 72.51% growth rate in cases and a 20.46% growth rate in deaths in just one month's time. And in spite of these huge numbers, just as is the case with our world, none of this is exponential. It is all logistical - a slow, deadly burn without end.

I'll let you figure out Brazil, India and Russia on your own.





Wishing you all a good, safe and healthy start into August, 2020.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER
-AND-
NEW, AS OF 2020-07-026: 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were 2 pertinent analyses between the last worldwide analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-030, posted 2020-07-031, 09:54 GMT +2, #11624.
Pre-analyses: excel tables Worldwide, top 4 nations, posted 2020-08-001, 09:48, #11640.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-07-031 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍******* 17,745,673 *******֍
+282,370 new C19 cases over the day before, third day in a row over +180,000 cases, a record.
Also, 3nd day in a row not far at all from +300,000 new C19 cases... music of the future?
India continues to break daily case records, one day after the other, this time, over +57,000.
The world will slip in just under or go slightly over 18 million cases today, 2020-08-001.
There are 145 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 682,197 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,230 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +259,175 new C19 cases per day and +5,759 deaths per day.
1,462 US-American, 1,191 Brazilian, 785 Indian, 639 Mexican & 295 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

On 2020-07-029, the world sprang over 17 million cases. Two days later, we are already at 17.7 million. The current average of +259,175 new cases per day (slightly less than the day before, to note) means that the world will advance 1 million cases in LESS than four days each time. This puts us closer to 8 million cases per month than 7 million per month.

You can see that the excel table is marked in red for EOM June and EOM July, for easier comparison purposes. Also, the following, from EOM to EOM:

the world added a little less than +7.2 million (+7,167,917) C19 cases and almost +170,000 (+169,011) deaths from EOM June 2020 to EOM July 2020. That's a 67.76% growth rate in cases and a 32.93% growth rate in deaths in just one month's time. And in spite of these huge numbers, none of this is exponential. It is all logistical - a slow, deadly burn without end.

The number of daily deaths (6,230) for the day currently being analysed was larger than 3 of the 4 Fridays before. The daily deaths 7-day rolling average has risen nominally almost every day since 2020-07-002. It receded on 2020-07-029 due to the huge death toll from the Wednesday before being replaced by one more in line with the overall line of deaths on 2020-07-029. On 2020-07-030, it began to rise again.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, take a look, if you like. I will definitely revise this analysis at the end of July, 2020.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were nation-rubrik-jumps with: Romania and Colombia.

There is a second rubrik table, comparing EOM June 2020 to EOM July 2020:



You can read it as such: from EOM June to EOM July 2020, 15 nations crossed over the 1,000-line in total cases, bringing the total number of nations in this rubrik to 145, and so forth.

The monthly comparison table makes much more sense when comparing total cases and total deaths, it is, imo, less useful comparing new cases and new deaths, because those are rubriks subject to daily fluctations, whereas the totals rubriks involve numbers that should, with time, steadily grow.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 156,747 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.98% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.97%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses. I will be starting a new extrapolation at the beginning of August, 2020.

Brazil is currently at 92,569 total deaths, putting it -7,432 from the 100,000-death line and at rank 2 among the C19 dead.

An extrapolation average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 would have gotten Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. Of course, that date has now come and gone. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,026. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +38,695 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths between 2020-08-005 and 2020-08-008, in the next 8 days including today, 2020-08-001.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,026 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,180 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. It's likely to stay that way for a while.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

39 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Ukraine and Iraq crossing over the 1,000,000-test line on 2020-07-031; of those 39, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. At 8 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. Then again, this text has been here for more than 5 weeks and China has released: nothing. Sooooo.....

To date: the USA has performed 58.6 million tests (900,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 28.2 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before). India has completed 18.8 million such tests (800,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 12.6 million such tests.


Facit: on 2020-07-031, ending the month of July, 2020, the world went from 17.46 (17.5) million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 17.5, 17.6 and 17.5 million to land at 17.75 million cases.


-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER
-AND-
NEW, AS OF 2020-07-026: 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There was one pertinent report between the last USA analysis and this one:
Pre-analyses: excel tables Worldwide, top 4 nations, posted 2020-08-001, 09:48, #11640.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Friday, 2020-07-031 (EOD = GMT +0):

****4,705,889****
+70,904 new COVID-19 cases.
In a row (+ or more): 26 days of +55,000, 22 non-consecutive days of +60,000-78,000.
CALIFORNIA went over 500,000 total C19 cases on 2020-07-031, establishing a new rubrik.
There are now 156,747 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,462 of them were recorded on this day.
Adjusted death extrapolation from August to EOY 2020. See: end of analysis.
USA weekly average = 65,366 new infections & 1,180 deaths per day.
2,327,572 recovered / 2,221,570 still sick, 18,687 in critical condition. Margin: +2.25% (was: +1.95%).​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Less text.... more meaning. The USA sailed over the 4-million mark on 2020-07-021, and 10 days later, we are at 4.7 million already.

Every day this week thus far has reflected less +cases than the corresponding day the week before. It sure looks as if the new case "tide" is receding. That would be good news.

The rolling average currently shows +65,366 cases a day (slightly less than the day before), which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in slightly more than 15 days each time, assuming we maintain the current rate. I expect that in the fullness of time, this average will rise again and so I am still tending to think that by the end of August, the USA will have already reached 7,000,000 C19 cases. No need to extrapolate it yet, let's watch the figures for a while.

The actual number of daily deaths, +1,462, reflects a large rise in deaths compared to all four Fridays before and is the second Friday in a row in a long time to show +1,000 or more deaths.

In a nutshell: average daily cases are currently decreasing but at the same time, average daily deaths are increasing, meaning that the lagging factor (deaths) is now *verifiably* in full swing. This is the fourth day in a row where the USA is averaging over 1,000 deaths per day and I do not expect this average to drop for a good while, because the far less deaths (well under +1,000) that occur on Saturdays and Sundays are ALREADY in the average. @nopartisanbull The worst possible sign would be Saturday (2020-08-001) daily deaths close to or over +1,000. Let's hope that this does not happen.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below will have disappeared - *poof* *gone*! There were Unit-Rubrik changes in MO and CA on this day. Hard to believe, but the state of California has now recorded one-half-million confirmed C19 cases. And other states are going to follow.

There is a second rubrik table, comparing EOM June 2020 to EOM July 2020:



You can read it as such: "from EOM June to EOM July 2020, 4 more Units crossed over the 1,000-line in total cases, bringing the total number of Units in this rubrik to 56", and so forth.

The monthly comparison table makes much more sense when comparing total cases and total deaths, it is, imo, less useful comparing new cases and new deaths, because those are rubriks subject to daily fluctations, whereas the totals rubriks involve numbers that should, with time, steadily grow.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

There was a time in the middle of April, 2020, where we were experiencing more than twice as many daily deaths in the USA as we are as right now, but most all of them were coming out of New York, also somewhat out of New Jersey. Here, suddenly, with Florida, Texas, California, Arizona and to a lesser degree, Georgia - we are starting to see 5 slightly smaller New Yorks - 5 very distinct and growing hotspots, with South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, Louisiana (for a second time), Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin not far behind. We could very well have 13-15 major hotspots by the November General election, something I would hardly call "embers".

Further, this is exactly the scenario that epidemiologists were fearing would/could happen, only, they did not think it would happen in the summer months because just 5 months ago, most profis assumed that the virus would recede in the hot months. But it has not receded, which leads to the question as to whether there will be a second wave at all or perhaps we will all suffer one, never-ending wave with a number of recurring peaks, which means that the world will never get a "let-up" from this thing. I mean, 7 months into this thing and 5 months or them having taking the USA in it's grip, I would think that this question is now worth asking. And what happens if the colder conditions of approaching winter make this thing even worse? The virus broke out as winter was in full swing, we saw it's effects during Spring and now, during a hot Summer, we can assume that fall conditions will feed the virus just as spring did, so the question of Winter-outbreak is one that can only be answered when we have experienced it for the first time, which places us around the month of November, 2020. Talk about crappy timing.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 156,747 total US deaths from COVID-19, putting the USA on course to reach the 200,000-death-milestone quicker than initially estimated. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of FRISCO or slightly less than all of SALINAS, never to get the one or the it back again. Think about that.

Up until now, we had this:

So, here is how things shaped up at the end of July, 2020:



Unfortunately, we ended up at EOM July 2020 7,850 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which put us 11 full days ahead of this projection. That is too far above the projection and means that the extrapolation was too conservative.

Therefore, it's to press the restart button: as of today, 2020-08-001, I am moving the presumed daily deaths from +700 up to +850 in the extrapolation:

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

This changes things and also sets new milestones. We start completely fresh, with the death total from 2020-07-031 as the basis for the calculations.

If we really do average +850 deaths per day (instead of +700) in the last 5 months of the year, then we will end the year on 2020-12-031 with just under 287,000 dead Americans due to COVID-19.

Along the way:

200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

close to 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

As of now, no more text about this extrapolation. I will simply post a screenshot of the numbers for it regularly, guaranteed for every Sunday (and on special occasions). Otherwise, you can simply click on the link as see how the extrapolation is running for yourself.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020 , to happen.

-Stat

 

How to effectively protect the most vulnerable; Nursing Homes Residents?

Some health officials have suggested;

Living quarters for employees, 10 day rotating schedule. Employees would be tested prior to a rotation.

However, the cost of implementing said suggestion would be excessively high, and its implementation, logistically challenging.

My reasoning for the above-listed suggestion;

Texas Tribune, July 31st

Headline; Here’s How Covid19 pandemic has unfolded in Texas since March

July 27th; State releases Nursing Homes Covid19 numbers

Numbers show Covid19 infections exploded in Texas Nursing Homes in July. 8,291 confirmed cases through July 27, four times more than the number of cases recorded in all of June.

—————

Thus, regardless of existing mitigation measures related to Nursing Homes, the risk of infection is still “unacceptably” high.

 

Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D, AZ-03) has tested positive for COVID-19 after a week in Washington, D.C., that included a hearing with Rep. Louie Gohmert, who also tested positive in recent days.

Since Louie Gohmert decided to go to the gym and then do some shopping - WITHOUT A MASK ON - before decided to drum his staff together in his small office to tell them all that he had tested positive a number of hours before, the question is whether he should be charged with deliberate endangerment of his colleagues. This is the same **** that Rand Paul pulled when he tested positive, KNEW he was positive and then for hours on end, went about his usual day as if nothing unusual was happening.

When I began this thread, I warned very explicitly that as the Fall came, we would begin to hear about figures with high name recognition coming down with COVID-19.

Back to Grijalva - a beloved figure in Arizona politics, at least in the Democratic Party: he is 72 years old and overweight. Whether or not he has other comorbidities, I do not know, but a 72 year old overweight man contracting COVID-19 should give us all pause.

I wish both Rep. Grijalva and Rep. Gohmert a full recovery. And Louis, wear a ****ing mask.

Statdaughter and Statpapa just got back from a fine day-trip!

 

Yes, lovely place

 

An interesting look back at the Spanish flu pandemic. The parallels are obvious and the differences sometimes not very comforting. The Spanish flu, for instance, did recede during the summer while COVID hasn't. And, just as today, the world had its share that wouldn't take precautions, making things more dangerous for all of us.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-08-001 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
The world went over 18 million cases. Doubling time from 9 million to 18 million: 41 days.

֍******** 18,008,487 ********֍
+262,814 new C19 cases over the day before, largest Saturday haul thus far.
For the first time ever, FIVE nations record more than +10,000 new C19 cases on the same day.
There are 145 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
Rank 5: South Africa goes over 500,000 total C19 cases.
There have now been 688,022 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,825 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +259,898 new C19 cases per day and +5,778 deaths per day.
1,151 US-American, 1,048 Brazilian, 852 Indian, 688 Mexican & 225 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In a nutshell: the daily averages are both rising.

The number of daily deaths (5,825) for the day currently being analysed was larger than all four of the Saturdays before. The daily deaths 7-day rolling average has risen nominally almost every day since 2020-07-002, from an average of 4,608 to currently, 5,825.

A new worldwide death extrapolation will come out in the next days.

As noted above, the world went over 9 million cases on 2020-06-021, so it took about 24 weeks to get from 0 cases to 9 million, and then just shy of 6 weeks to double from 9 million to 18 million. Food for thought.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were nation-rubrik-jumps with: Guatemala and Colombia. 2020-08-001 was very much Colombia-Day, being now the 5th nation to go over the +10,000 new cases in one day-line and also having the 5th highest number of daily deaths (this has been going on for days now). Now remains to be see if, as was the case with South Africa, this will become a regular thing or not, but there can be no doubt that other hotspots are developing in Middle and South America.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

Not only did Colombia join the rankings of nations with more than +10,000 new C19 cases in one day, it had more cases than South Africa.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 157,898 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.98% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.97%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses. I will be starting a new extrapolation at the beginning of August, 2020.

Brazil is currently at 93,696 total deaths, putting it -6,304 from the 100,000-death line and at rank 2 among the C19 dead.

An extrapolation average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 would have gotten Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. Of course, that date has now come and gone. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,017. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +39,822 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths between 2020-08-005 and 2020-08-008, in the next 7 days including today, 2020-08-002.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,017 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,214 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. It's likely to stay that way for a while. It's also only a matter of time until India joins that miserable statistic.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

39 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 39, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. At 8 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. The USA has performed 59.2 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 28.5 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). India has completed 19.4 million such tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before). The UK has performed 16.3 million such tests. Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.1 million such tests (500,000 thousand more than the day before).


Facit: on 2020-08-001, beginning the month of August, 2020, the world went from 17.75 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 17.8, 17.9 and 18.0 million to land at 18.01 million cases.


-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Saturday, 2020-08-001 (EOD = GMT +0):

****4,764,318****
+58,429 new COVID-19 cases.
In a row (+ or more): 26 days of +55,000, 22 non-consecutive days of +60,000-78,000.
FLORIDA is fast approaching 500,000 total C19 cases.
There are now 157,898 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,151 of them were recorded on this day.
5th day in a row of +1,000 or more daily deaths, first time for this since 2020-05-027 through 2020-05-031.
USA weekly average = 64,087 new infections & 1,214 deaths per day.
2,326,903 recovered / 2,243,517 still sick, 18,720 in critical condition. Margin: +2.51% (was: +2.25%).​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Less text.... more meaning. The USA sailed over the 4-million mark on 2020-07-021, and 11 days later, we are closing in on 4.8 million already.

Every day this week thus far has reflected less +cases than the corresponding day the week before. It sure looks as if the new case "tide" is receding. That would be good news.

The rolling average currently shows +64,087 cases a day (slightly less than the day before), which means advancing 1,000,000 cases every 15.6 days each time, assuming we maintain the current rate. I expect that in the fullness of time, this average will rise again and so I am still tending to think that by the end of August, the USA will have already reached 7,000,000 C19 cases. No need to extrapolate it yet, let's watch the figures for a while.

The actual number of daily deaths, +1,151, reflects a substantial rise in deaths compared to all four Saturdays before and is the first Saturday in 2 months (since 2020-05-030) to record more than +1,000 deaths. That Saturday was also the last time that we had a five-day stretch of +1,000 or more deaths per day.

In a nutshell: average daily cases are currently decreasing but at the same time, average daily deaths are increasing, meaning that the lagging factor (deaths) is now *verifiably* in full swing. I do not expect this average to drop for a good while, because the far less deaths (well under +1,000) that occur on Saturdays and Sundays are ALREADY in the average.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
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By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet.

Almost all of the text below this point will have disappeared - *poof* *gone*!

There were no Unit-Rubrik changes on this day.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

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COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
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The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

There was a time in the middle of April, 2020, where we were experiencing more than twice as many daily deaths in the USA as we are as right now, but most all of them were coming out of New York, also somewhat out of New Jersey. Here, suddenly, with Florida, Texas, California, Arizona and to a lesser degree, Georgia - we are starting to see 5 slightly smaller New Yorks - 5 very distinct and growing hotspots, with South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, Louisiana (for a second time), Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin not far behind. We could very well have 13-15 major hotspots by the November General election, something I would hardly call "embers".

Further, this is exactly the scenario that epidemiologists were fearing would/could happen, only, they did not think it would happen in the summer months because just 5 months ago, most profis assumed that the virus would recede in the hot months. But it has not receded, which leads to the question as to whether there will be a second wave at all or perhaps we will all suffer one, never-ending wave with a number of recurring peaks, which means that the world will never get a "let-up" from this thing. I mean, 7 months into this thing and 5 months or them having taking the USA in it's grip, I would think that this question is now worth asking. And what happens if the colder conditions of approaching winter make this thing even worse? The virus broke out as winter was in full swing, we saw it's effects during Spring and now, during a hot Summer, we can assume that fall conditions will feed the virus just as spring did, so the question of Winter-outbreak is one that can only be answered when we have experienced it for the first time, which places us around the month of November, 2020. Talk about crappy timing.
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COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 157,898 total US deaths from COVID-19, putting the USA on course to reach the 200,000-death-milestone quicker than initially estimated. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of SALINAS, never to get it back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation from an estimated average +700 deaths per day to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA.

This adjustment also adjusts the milestone-dates:
-200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
-Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.
-250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
-286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that currently, we are +301 deaths over the extrapolation, which means that "only" 549 deaths on Sunday, 2020-08-002 would keep this extrapolation at parity. It will probably go back and forth between positive and slightly negative values for a while. That's the whole idea of watching an extrapolation at work. The rows highlighted in yellow are Sundays, to help orient our eyes.

Just to be clear about the "only" above: so that no one misunderstands me, our goal is: ZERO COVID-19 deaths per day. I do not delight in these figures nor do I even like them, seeing them turns my stomach personally, but they are necessary to understand and if they motivate people to do things to fight the virus, then they will have served their purpose. Capisce?

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Large anti-mask protests in London and Berlin.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost...germans-protest-covid-19-rules-in-berlin/amp/

https://www.rt.com/uk/496879-london-mask-protest-bbc-downing-street/

 

Morons.