Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I too do not want anyone to die from COVID-19, regardless of differences in "Weltanschaaung". Each one of who has died from COVID-19 means that we have lost another unique part of humanity, never to get it back again. I guess you could say that you and I are, in the truest sense of the word, pro-life.

I just wish to G-d that every person would take this virus seriously. Those who do not put us all in danger.

Nice to hear from you.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infection disease expert, said that another level of protection may be needed in addition to face masks. "If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it," Fauci told ABC News on Wednesday. This extra layer of protection would help to shield the mucosa in the eyes, a point on the body where the coronavirus can be transmitted. At this time, it is “not universally recommended” to wear goggles or an eye shield, but it would help to reduce the risk of infection even further. Fauci also added that protective gear like face masks will help to limit the spread of influenza during the upcoming flu season, but people should still get a flu shot when they become available.

 

Mr. Cain was at the Trump rally, unmasked. I think there are too many Darwin candidates this year. Way too many.

 

1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 equates to a surge of Covid19 deaths.

1. Mid June; One Florida doctor claimed that near 70% of his Covid19 patients were under age 55, today’s Patient’s age stats..... unknown.

2. Yesterday; Washington Post.....”Young people infecting older family members in shared home”

3. Flashbacks; Spain/Italy Covid19 infections were worsened by multi-generational Homes.

4. I Googled; The States with most multi-generational households......Bingo!.....Top 15 States......mostly Southern States.

5. In addition, the number of infections in nursing homes are somewhat withheld, both nationally and regionally, thus, today, is there a Nursing Home’s surge of Covid19 cases/Hospitalizations/deaths, or not?.....Back in May, Nationally, the percentage of Covid19 deaths linked to Nursing Homes was 40.2%.

6. I googled; Percentage of Covid19 deaths linked to Nursing Homes; According to a New York Times article, last updated July 23rd, 42%, thus, since May, + approx. 2%, thus, an increase.

Questions; In the next several weeks;

a. Will Covid19’s 7 day rolling average of deaths increase?

b. Will Covid19’s Hospitalizations Fatality Rate increase?

Answer; Most likely

 

Deleted.

 

Anyone....

What was U.S. highest 7 day rolling average of Covid19 deaths.........I’m starting to bite my nails.

Stat?

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average

 

Exactly. Underestimating this illness is a grave mistake, even for asymptomatic patients. The idiotic teenager idea of "COVID parties" and the idea of "let's just let it run its course for herd immunity, most people have no consequences so let's just go out there and get it already and recover and go back to work" is an EXTREMELY dangerous proposition.

We don't even know so well the short term and mid term consequences, let alone the long term ones, for this virus that has existed for only 8 months.

I remind you of the case of the Epstein-Barr virus that causes the generally benign disease mononucleosis (except if you manage to rupture your spleen during the acute phase by not complying with bed rest). Well, it turns out that the virus never goes away, stays dormant, and in many former monucleosis patients, decades later causes non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, a very dangerous and lethal cancer.

I don't want to sound alarmist; maybe this or something similar will never be the case for the SARS-CoV-2. I'm just saying, viral illnesses have a way of being more serious than they sound and having more consequences than it is initially apparent, so I'd advise the population to stay prudent, and avoid the infection as much as possible until we have safe and effective vaccines.

 

a. extremely likely
b.) already happening. See: TX, AR, GA, FL, also LA

 

Here you go. Peak all-time daily high: 2020-04-022, also going into 2020-04-023:

 

Thanks!

 

It is. Some Americans are like toddlers. It's not enough that several hundred thousand of their fellow citizens are dead; if it doesn't happen to them, personally, it's not a real threat.

Chuck Woolery was tweeting non-stop about the hoax that is COVID. He shut down his Twitter account after his son got sick with COVID.

Mom: Don't touch the stove, you'll burn your hand.
Toddler: *touches hot stove*

RIP Mr. Cain. Hopefully some of your friends will learn from your mistake.

 

Today, people are embracing controversies more than ever. At one time, mainly political, but now, politically and subsconciously.

Perhaps, the phenomenal growth of social media has greatly enhanced confrontational responses.

Thus, “confrontationally”, which nationality argues the most?

Answer; USA, top 5 for sure.

 

Agree: social media allows for anonymity if wished for and thus the inhibition level goes southward very quickly.

 

One month ago today, India was reporting around +18,000 C19 cases per day.

Today, at current, India has reported almost +55,000 cases....

 

This data comes from covidtracking.com.

On April 21, the rolling 7 day average for deaths hit its all time high of 2,045.00. It happened approximately 11 days after the highest 7 day rolling average for cases (by that point) of 31,521.14.

The low for that rolling 7 day average (deaths) happened on July 6th when it hit 450.67. That took place approximately 3.5 weeks after the lowest (recent) rolling 7 day average for cases happened on June 12th when it hit 20,686.14. I should note that this period gets really difficult to analyze because New Jersey found some ~1850 deaths and reported them all in one day during this period.

After today, the rolling 7 day average for deaths is 1,094.57. The most recent high for 7 day rolling averages on cases took place on July 22nd when it reached 66,898.43.

I think it is clear that the rolling 7 day average for deaths is likely to keep climbing, but you can see that the cases today are less likely to result in deaths. With that said, it is definitely possible that the rolling seven day average for deaths will beat the previous record given that the recent high for the rolling 7 day average for cases is more than twice as high as the record from April 10th.

 

I wanted to provide an update to our resident lurker @Sanskrit (assuming the virus hasn't gotten to him personally) on the truly moronic metric that he wanted to use for evaluating whether this virus was serious. And that metric was to use this website which listed the number of Covid-19 deaths within each State alongside the average deaths for the States from the seasonal flu. When he made this argument initially, there were only 16 States which had experienced more deaths from Covid-19 (after two months) as compared against the average flu season (from an entire year). I made the comment that by year's end, the number of States to pass that metric would be 40. He responded by betting that this virus would disappear by September (lol). Anyways, here are all the States which have now passed that very sad barrier.




Currently 38 States have seen as many, or more, deaths from Covid-19 than they usually experience during an average year of the seasonal flu. The only states which have not crossed that threshold are:

North Dakota (4 away)
South Dakota (14 away)
Oklahoma (19 away)
Alaska (20 away)
Oregon (54 away)
Wyoming (59 away)
Montana (77 away)
Arkansas (84 away)
Maine (85 away)
Tennessee (111 away)
West Virginia (228 away)
Hawaii (275 away)
Puerto Rico (516 away)

By next week, it is extremely likely that my prediction will - unfortunately - be proven to be an underestimate.

 

Another day in the mid 8% positives.

There is something wrong with the Arizona data (no negative tests) so I'll leave them off to see if it gets corrected.
Florida just can't make it move like Texas did with the bar closures.

 

Before today's analyses, here the excel tables for the World and the top four ranked nations (total C19 cases) for Thursday, 2020-07-030:



The world just went over 17 million the day before and already on 2020-07-030 it is not far from 17.5 million.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER
-AND-
NEW, AS OF 2020-07-026: 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Thursday, 2020-07-030 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍******* 17,463,303 *******֍
+285,743 new C19 cases over the day before, third highest day on record to-date.
2nd day in a row not far at all from +300,000 new C19 cases... music of the future?
India continues to break daily case records, one day after the other, this time, almost +56,000.
There are 145 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 675,967 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,395 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +260,195 new C19 cases per day and +5,758 deaths per day.
1,445 US-American, 1,189 Brazilian, 783 Indian, 485 Mexican & 356 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

On 2020-07-029, the world sprang over 17 million cases. The very next day, we are already knocking on the door to 17.5 million. The current average of +260,000 new cases per day means that the world will advance 1 million cases in LESS than four days each time. This puts us closer to 8 million cases per month than 7 million per month.

The number of daily deaths (6,395) for the day currently being analysed was larger than the 4 Thursdays before. The daily deaths 7-day rolling average has risen nominally almost every day since 2020-07-002. It receded on 2020-07-029 due to the huge death toll from the Wednesday before being replaced by one more in line with the overall line of deaths on 2020-07-029. On 2020-07-030, it began to rise again.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, take a look, if you like. I will definitely revise this analysis at the end of July, 2020.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were nation-rubrik-jumps with: Senegal, Madascar, Ivory Coast and Indonesia. On Monday, Indonesia went over 100,000 total cases. On Thursday, Indonesia went over 1,000 deaths.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

also, for posterity...

​

Currently at 155,285 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.97% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.98%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses. I will be starting a new extrapolation at the beginning of August, 2020.

Brazil is currently at 91,377 total deaths, putting it -8,623 from the 100,000-death line and at rank 2 among the C19 dead.

An extrapolation average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 would have gotten Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,024. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +37,503 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths between 2020-08-005 and 2020-08-008, in about one week.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,024 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,136 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. It's likely to stay that way for a while.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

37 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 37, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. Then again, this text has been here for more than 5 weeks and China has released: nothing. Sooooo.....

To date: the USA has performed 57.5 million tests (800,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 27.6 million tests (-0- thousand more than the day before). India has completed 18.2 million such tests (500,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 12.6 million such tests.


Facit: on 2020-07-030, the world went from 17.18 (17.2) million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 17.2, 17.3 and 17.4 million to land at 17.46 (17.5) million cases.


-Stat

 

It feels in a way like we’re sitting ducks waiting for the Leviathan called the coronavirus to swallow us whole

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER
-AND-
NEW, AS OF 2020-07-026: 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Thursday, 2020-07-030 (EOD = GMT +0):

****4,634,985****
+66,948 new COVID-19 cases.
In a row (+ or more): 25 days of +55,000, 21 non-consecutive days of +60,000-78,000.
CALIFORNIA will likely go over 500,000 total C19 cases today, 2020-07-031.
There are now 155,285 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,445 of them were recorded on this day.
USA weekly average = 66,428 new infections & 1,136 deaths per day.
I wrote some what I think are important thoughts under "new daily deaths" - please read. Thanks.
2,284,965 recovered / 2,194,735 still sick, 18,783 in critical condition. Margin: +1.95% (was: +1.66%).
The recovereds in that USA remain over parity in the recovered vs. still sick statistic.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Less text.... more meaning. The USA sailed over the 4-million mark on 2020-07-021, and 9 days later, we are over 4.6 million already.

Every day this week thus far has reflected less +cases than the corresponding day the week before. It sure looks as if the new case "tide" is receding. That would be good news.

The rolling average currently shows +66,427 cases a day (slightly less than the day before), which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in 15 days, 8 minutes each time, assuming we maintain the current rate. I expect that in the fullness of time, this average will rise again and so I am still tending to think that by the end of August, the USA will have already reached 7,000,000 C19 cases. No need to extrapolate it yet, let's watch the figures for a while.

The actual number of daily deaths, +1,445, reflects a large rise in deaths compared to all four Thursdays before and is the second Thursday in a row in a long time to show +1,000 or more deaths.

In a nutshell: average daily cases are currently decreasing but at the same time, average daily deaths are increasing, meaning that the lagging factor (deaths) is now *verifiably* in full swing. This is the third day in a row where the USA is averaging over 1,000 deaths per day and I do not expect this average to drop for a good while, because the far less deaths (well under +1,000) that occur on Saturdays and Sundays are ALREADY in the average. @nopartisanbull - I am thinking to myself that this detail would be of interest to you, since you are also crunching numbers and asking very salient questions.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below will have disappeared - *poof* *gone*! There were no Unit rubrik-changes on this day.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

There was a time in the middle of April, 2020, where we were experiencing more than twice as many daily deaths in the USA as we are as right now, but most all of them were coming out of New York, also somewhat out of New Jersey. Here, suddenly, with Florida, Texas, California, Arizona and to a lesser degree, Georgia - we are starting to see 5 slightly smaller New Yorks - 5 very distinct and growing hotspots, with South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, Louisiana (for a second time), Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin not far behind. We could very well have 13-15 major hotspots by the November General election, something I would hardly call "embers".

Further, this is exactly the scenario that epidemiologists were fearing would/could happen, only, they did not think it would happen in the summer months because just 5 months ago, most profis assumed that the virus would recede in the hot months. But it has not receded, which leads to the question as to whether there will be a second wave at all or perhaps we will all suffer one, never-ending wave with a number of recurring peaks, which means that the world will never get a "let-up" from this thing. I mean, 7 months into this thing and 5 months or them having taking the USA in it's grip, I would think that this question is now worth asking. And what happens if the colder conditions of approaching winter make this thing even worse? The virus broke out as winter was in full swing, we saw it's effects during Spring and now, during a hot Summer, we can assume that fall conditions will feed the virus just as spring did, so the question of Winter-outbreak is one that can only be answered when we have experienced it for the first time, which places us around the month of November, 2020. Talk about crappy timing.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 155,285 total US deaths from COVID-19, putting the USA on course to reach the 200,000-death-milestone quicker than initially estimated. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of FRISCO, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002 - we came it at 150,000 6 days ahead of the extrapolation, on Monday, 2020-07-027.

200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013. - under the current extrapolation, that date likely moves to 2020-01-003, ten days earlier.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Unfortunately, right now, we are 7,090 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us 10 full days ahead of this projection.

At the beginning of August, 2020, I am going to reset the extrapolation, presumably with a baseline of between +800/+900 daily deaths instead of +700. And at the beginning of August, instead of this wall of text, I will probably post daily screenshots of the extrapolation.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

It doesn't have to be that way. It's a medical issue and we, all the peoples of the world, have the rudimentary know-how in order to stop the spread of this virus.
It's not a matter of if we can do it. It's a matter of will be do it.
And that requires real leadership and some hard decisions on a global level, since this, of course, is a global medical issue.

THAT is where we are, as a species, failing.