Herd immunity by April?

@557 see how fast the P.1 is growing there and the complete reversal of predominance (they do have a bit of P.2 or the Rio de Janeiro variant, which doesn't seem to be as concerning):

 

Just a thought to keep our minds occupied overnight. With 28,000,000 confirmed infections there are no concerning variants emerging in the US of US origin.

With a total of approximately 17,000,000 total infections between Brazil, South Africa, and the U.K., there are at least three, maybe four variants with enough antigenic drift to exhibit enhanced infectiousness and/or reinfection capabilities.

Are other countries missing more infections than we are? I doubt the U.K. is. Brazil, probably, South Africa maybe. Long haulers with compromised immune systems are the logical suspected host source of variants. Does the US have fewer such cases compared to the other countries? Or is it just the odd trick statistical analysis sometimes plays? Statistically, by reported numbers, the US should have been the source of at least two of the concerning variants.

 

Very likely deaths are comparable to influenza, and always have been, except:

In the past we counted someone who contracted influenza at the end of their life but had late stage kidney disease, chronic heart issues or cancer as a death from the chronic disease, not as an "influenza death". If we counted those deaths as influenza deaths instead, then influenza would be as lethal as Covid.

If we measured chronic disease deaths "with" Covid the same as we historically measured deaths "with" influenza at the end, they'd very likely be close to parity. But we don't. We have counted chronic disease deaths "with" Covid as if they were deaths "from" Covid.

That novel change in "cause of death" criteria has caused a difference of hundreds of thousands of deaths such that we cannot even compare influenza deaths and Covid deaths.

The crime against humanity is not that Covid doesn't exist, but that the globalists are using the Covid opportunity to impoverish billions of people while they suck up ownership of all the wealth and resources and plan their future ideal world where we all become their tenants. "You will own nothing and be happy," is one of their published slogans. At what level in the coming caste system will you be placed? Think you will be as comfortable renting everything as you are today with no opportunity to accumulate wealth? You will be allowed to rent what they decide you deserve to rent, not what your skills and qualifications give you the opportunity to earn and choose.

--

Before Covid, Deaths counted by the chronic disease, not "influenza death":

Many cancer survivors are at a higher risk of hospitalisation and death from seasonal influenza for at least a decade after their diagnosis.

People with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk of developing serious flu complications, which can result in hospitalization and even death.

Serious heart complications are common in people hospitalized with influenza.

Abundant, indirect epidemiological evidence indicates that influenza contributes to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalisations with studies showing increases in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and death during the influenza season.

Influenza is a serious threat to people with all types of diabetes.


Starting in 2020, Deaths counted as "Covid death", not chronic disease death:

94% of COVID-19 deaths included comorbid factors.

 

?

I give up, which one?

The one in Russia? Assuming it meets your listed criteria?

 

"Your honor the bullets my client fired into the "victim's" heart only accelerated the inevitable heart disease which this heavy smoker had coming. He should be commended for saving him from a long and painful ordeal"

The whole nature of "chronic" disease means that people can and do LIVE WITH them, often for a large part of their lives. It can therefore be highly misleading to reason as you are doing. INADB my understanding is that SOME deaths can and are attributed to chronic maladies but you must be careful not to conflate a contributing cause of death with the "PROXIMATE" or actual cause.

You are one of the first people who is a believer in the "Globalist Conspiracy" to make reference to an actual "published source" that I have ever heard. What source was that, and are there any others you can refer us to?

 

Remember Neil Ferguson, one of the "doom, gloom and death" modellers? He always seems to get hired with the globalists need to exaggerate a health scare "crisis".




https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

There is no Globalist Conspiracy "theory". The World Economic Forum openly states that they are conspiring to use Covid as the short window of opportunity to usher in the Great Reset. lt is organized to be a partnership of Elite Government-Corporate Rulers. In other words, the future they have designed for the planet is a Fascist system.

This is a crime against humanity, unless you hate your freedom and liberty and prefer to be controlled. Heck, most people are compliant sheep though who will move with the herd any which way they are led.

https://westonaprice.london/articles/great-reset/

 

^rubbish

 

We do have a variant of concern, the California one, CAL.20C (a.k.a. in another system of classification, B.1.427/B.1.429). It's looking increasingly dangerous, actually. 19% to 24% more infectious (due to S protein mutation L452R) and also with a potential for antigenic drift.

 

One reason they have dropped in California is Guv. Newsom recall. Each increase in signatures results in more freedom and better news released by the state media.
Not to mention the rarely mentioned change in PCR testing avoiding so many false positives look for antibodies instead of illness.

What we have is a pandemic of people not affected or mildly affected. But it was an election year, so there is that.

 

^This takes the cake as one of the most misguided and misinformed posts on this issue, ever.

Almost all of what this poster is saying here is garbage.

The one part that is accurate is that the influenza virus is related to cardiovascular deaths and this tends to fly under the radar. But even if we count those, Covid-19 kills much more. And then, if we wanted to compare oranges and oranges we'd have to add the Covid-19 sequelae that also cause deaths including strokes, for example, after someone has officially "recovered" from Covid-19. I've shown here stats of deaths up to five months after discharge from a Covid-19 unit that are highly suggestive of having been caused by Covid-19 complications but don't get counted as such. Same issue of the influenza-related MIs.

The idea of the 94% comorbidities and the idea of dying "with" Covid versus "from" Covid, betray the fact that this poster is showing profound ignorance of how a death certificate is written, and what it lists as the cause of death (based on the sequence of events), and why. I've debunked this BS several times so instead of repeating the whole thing here, anybody interested in learning the truth rather than this poster's nonsensical ideas, can simply advance-search my posting history with the keywords "death certificate" and me as an author and the person will find the posts where I walk people through the issues of the various possibilities for listing the real cause of death.

No, no physician worth his/her weight in salt is botching this. The deaths that are listed as caused by Covid-19 are absolutely caused by it, no doubt about it (barred some rare instance of some incompetent moron making mistakes while issuing a death certificate). And of course there are comorbidities. This disease hits the elderly harder and it is almost unheard of that a senior citizen doesn't have at least one comorbidity (which, yes, will contribute to making Covid-19 more severe, but still wouldn't kill the person without Covid-19, not anytime soon). You live long enough, you get diseases. So, yes, they will be listed in Part II of the death certificate (which is where this 94% comes from) but they aren't the cause of death, as long as the physician knows what he/she is doing (and 99.9% of us do know it) with the certificate. I've used the analogy of the tornado and the fit guy versus the fat guy running from it, to explain the "with" and the "from." I won't repeat it here. Search for it using "tornado" in my posting history if you're curious.

The idea that deaths by Covid-19 are over-counted is a BS conspiracy theory and whoever still sustains this, against solid evidence like the excess deaths by all causes when you compare the pandemic period with a similar non-pandemic period in years past, is just being ignorant.

 

Nope. Birx told the country that the CDC directed physicians to record all deaths with Covid as deaths "from" Covid. Many people have known this for almost a year.

So, get back to your microscopes and research paper myopia. Some of us are looking at the big picture outside of the lab.

 

Ah, thanks. Still way under what statistics would predict but evens things out considerably.

 

^rubbish
I don't care about what Dr. Birx said, that weak woman who sold her soul to the devil. That's not what the CDC said. You just misunderstood it, as you are a lay person with no experience on how to write death certificates. Also, your ideological bias makes you prone to believing in this nonsense.

And I don't only stay in my lab. I also do provide direct patient care including to Covid-19 patients, and I do write death certificates.
Look, your ideas are not really worthy of my time. Have a nice day. Over and out.

 

So, Birx said that CDC directed physicians to mark all deaths "with" Covid as "Covid deaths".

She speaks English. You speak English. I speak English. There really should not be any difference in interpreting what she said.

Have a nice day.

 

How do you treat Covid patients?

 

Depends on the stage of the illness and the kind of patient. A few examples:
A patient with mildly symptomatic illness but strong risk factors will get an infusion of monoclonal antibodies.
Patients with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic illness will get a combination of adjunctive measures such as quercetin, vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, low dose aspirin, Pepcid, melatonin, and a bit controversial but with growing evidence, ivermectin.
Patients with moderate illness will get pulse ox monitoring, and all of the above plus enoxaparin, Vascepa or Lovaza, remdesivir, higher melatonin dose, thiamine, atorvastatin, etc.
For advanced illness we tend to use dexamethasone or methylprednisolone, IV vitamin C, full anticoagulation with enoxaparin, very high flow oxygen and proning to try and avoid intubation. Complications may need other add-ons like Magnesium IV, doxycycline, maintenance of euvolemia with lactate ringers, norepinephrine for hypotension.
When all hell breaks lose there are "salvage" treatments that have a small chance of still helping if the patient is very lucky. These include high dose bolus corticosteroids, plasma exchange, half-dose rTPA in patients with large dead-space ventilation, inhaled nitric oxide in combination with almitrine; ECMO has been less favored, now.
Patients with a phenotype of Macrophage Activation Syndrome will need salvage treatments with high dose methylprednisolone, and IL-1 inhibitors such as Anakinra and emapalumab; consider plasma exchange for these, too. Most of these people do die, though.

--------

Our hospital practices the MATH+ protocol, which I summarized above. Other treatment centers have different protocols, that overlap in some ways and differ in some other ways.

 

Oh no, not so. There are many more, my friend. Just look at this paper with numerous other domestic variants right here in the good old USA:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.12.21251658v1.full.pdf

 

I too speak English as well as fluent pig latin and she certainly said what you said she said.

 

Well said. lol

 

@557

Let's do a fun exercise here. Multiple choice. Tell me how many new variants have emerged since the SARS-CoV-2 first jumped from zoonotic reservoirs into humans:

a) 3
b) 30
c) 300
d) 3,000
e) 30,000
f) 300,000

Under spoiler tag:

Spoiler: The answer is...

The answer is f. Last I checked (it increases by the hour) we had 300,000 variants.

Only a few of them are called "variants of concern" because to deserve this classification, a variant needs to display some sort of unique behavior that makes it more contagious, more lethal, cause more morbidity, more able to evade vaccines and natural antibodies (causing re-infections), more able to evade antivirals, increased risk of MIS or long-haul, more able to evade monoclonal antibodies or convalescent plasma, more dangerous to certain demographics (including youth), and/or a combination of two or more of these.

Of the above number of existing variants, most do not change the basic behavior of the initial Wuhan variant so they are not called variants of concern.

Currently we've been watching about nine variants of concern. Four of them are likely to be the most dangerous ones.

B.1.1.7 (in the PANGOLIN naming system), or 20I/501Y.V1 (in the Nextstrain naming system) is the Kent variant, and it contains the following main mutations: 69/70 deletion; 144Y deletion; N501Y; A570D; D614G; P681H. Observe that it doesn't have the antigen drifting mutation E484K, thankfully. But it appears to be 56% more contagious and may be up to 30% more lethal. Recent research out of the University of Edinburgh found that it may actually be 70% more lethal. Yikes.

P.1 or 20J/501Y.V3 is the Brazilian Manaus variant. It's a brunch of the B.1.1.28. Its main mutations are E484K, K417N/T, N501Y, and D614G. Observe that it has both the E484K that makes it more resistant to vaccines, and the N501Y that makes it more contagious. It's supposed to be between 50% and 200% more contagious. Apparently not more lethal but there is some hint that youngsters have more severe illness from the P.1 than from the original Wuhan variant.

B.1.351 or 20H/501.V2, the South African variant. Its main mutations are K417N, E484K, N501Y, and D614G. Apparently 50% more contagious, with pronounced antigen drift but not more lethal.

The Bristol variant (VOC 202102/02) which is basically a B.1.1.7 with the E484K mutation (double yikes!). Only seen in a few cases so far, but has been found in the USA as well (triple yikes!), so far only one case.

The other five, a bit less concerning, are the Liverpool variant (A.23.1) which is the Wuhan variant with the E484K mutation, the P.2 (Brazilian Rio de Janeiro; less is known about it; it has surfaced already in the Bay Area in California, and it seems to have the E484K but lack the N501Y so while it seems to be able to re-infect like the P.1, it doesn't spread as fast as the P.1 so it should have a hard time getting a foothold), the CAL.20C (California, with the L452R mutation), the B.1.525 in the UK with both E484K and a new mutation called F888L) and the Nigerian variant which has the P681H mutation and is called B.1.1.207.

In the past, the Cluster 5 variant of concern that got to minks in Denmark, got extinguished by... killing all the minks. Poor minks.

 

The issue is not if she said it or not. The issue is, I don't for a second trust what Dr. Birx says. Get it now? Oh, and by the way, I speak five languages, all five very fluently.

 

It looks to me like the variants in that paper are mostly selectively neutral so don’t really compare to the U.K., Brazilian or South African variants. The California one seems to be exhibiting traits that are more selectable than the ones in the paper above and closer to the foreign variants.

I know mutation rates are constant per replication independent of geographic location of the host. It just seems like variants with highly selectable (more infectious) traits are disproportionately coming from outside the US. This could be from higher rates of long haulers in other places, genetic variability of hosts, or even treatment variability leading to longer periods of active infection. If Brazilian medical infrastructure has been sub par this would be one variable that could lead to more long haulers etc.

I would just expect a more equal distribution of variants with increased infectiousness than what we are seeing.

 

I feel the same way about Fauci.

 

Igpay Atinlay?

 

Yes at least 300,000 identified ones. Actually the number is likely in the millions because a person in whom a varient (mutation that is survivable by the virus and replicates) arises may not infect another person, therefore the “variant” “dies” when their infection clears or they die. These variants have a very small chance of ever being identified.

Again, I’m not talking about mutation frequency or total number of variants I’m referring to consequential ones.