An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter

This generally mirrors my suspicions, based on my anecdotal experience: that there arent nearly as many fence sitters as is presumed (or perhaps, just not nearly as many as there used to be). I think this is the result of the polarized politics. To put it simply: either Trump and his supporters are the fascist deranged maniacs that the progressives and neoliberals assure us they are, or the progressives and neoliberals have lost any semblence of reason in their perception of reality. Theres very little room between those two positions for folks to linger, and they're finally choosing a side, holding their noses or not.

Or two put another way, either the left has lost their political minds, or the right has, and very few people are still trying to decide which.

 

The rage from the Trump faction will keep the Dems unified.

 

I very much hope she's right. There is just one small problem with her analysis though.

It is talking about the Popular vote and Hillary did NOT lose the popular vote. She lost the ELECTORAL vote but WON the Popular vote as we all know so well. Maybe she's referring to the fact that the election was not really expected to be even close and then she's right but I don't see that being pointed out.

IMO if the Dems are to beat Trump ALL of them must go and vote and they must ALL vote for the approved Dem candidate. If you stay home or vote third/fourth party you ARE voting for Trump and this is a much surer an outcome than usual as we must defeat Trump by a sizable margin or he will win anyway. Make no mistake; he is GOING to cheat and cheat quite blatantly. If he wins any accusations of his cheating will be swept away, probably along with the accusers.

 

And the continued idiocy and blatant tyranny by Trump. He now wants to courts-martial the officer who did nothing more than answer a subpoena and tell the truth

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...officer-who-testified-in-impeachment-inquiry/

Americans don't like tyrants we never have. It's one of the few reasons we will go to war with our hearts in it, or not put our hearts in it when we go to war.

 

I am not sure yet. I suppose I tend to think Bernie may scare people who may be willing to vote for the D nominee even if they don't agree with a lot of his policy positions because they are just depressed with the constant overt authoritarian behavior by the POTUS. Voting for someone like him is something I could not have considered back in 2016. The one consolation is that the D's don't control the Senate and even if they pick it up, it might still be hard to pass some of the legislation Bernie champions like Medicare for All due to D senators in swing states.

If he wins, I will be interested to see what kind of conservative support he has this year. Trump was under fire throughout the 2016 primary as having questionable conservative credentials due to past ties of giving money to democrats, pro-choice comments, and I think some other things. That definitely won't be the case this year.

Thanks for the link to your article - I read most of it some weeks ago I think. The article on Bitecofer reminded me of it, but I had forgotten where I found the link to that article until now. I appreciate your attention to detail - it was a very insightful read.

 

I hope your characterization is not quite so accurate. As someone with family members, friends, and coworkers who are both Trump supporters and haters, I certainly don't think of Trump supporters as fascist deranged maniacs, or liberals as totally disconnected from reality. I know political commentators love to paint such colorful pictures because it sells, but I question how accurate that is for anyone who doesn't live in a political bubble.

As for "finally choosing a side, holding their noses or not", yeah, I think that is very accurate. Trump is extremely divisive. I can only think of maybe 3 people I know who are not certain what they will do in November regardless of the D nominee.

 

Gotta love the PROJECTION in that response.

The Dems KNOW what happened in 2016 when the party "fractured" over what happened in the Primaries. They are not going to make the same mistake. It really does not matter WHO ends up being the Dem nominee because whomever it is will get the FULL SUPPORT of the entire party for the plain and simple reason that your criminal IMPOTUS must be EVICTED from the Oval office. That is the UNIFYING factor among all of the Dems.

 

There is definitely polarizing anger and hatred in our nation at the present time which accounts for the significant number of defections from the parties and towards the Independents in the center. However they still retain their old allegiances and will vote accordingly since there is only one candidate out there at present who has the ability to reach across the aisle.

The pool of genuine swing voters is probably more or less the same as it has always been but what Bitecoffer is saying is that they are unlikely to vote 3rd party again given the consequences of doing so in 2016.

 

The continuing actions of Trump and his gang only continues to contribute to "dem unity" to vote for anyone but Trump.

 

Since when did criminal IMPOTUS supporters care about the "fake news" from MSNBC?

Or have they flipflopped and now believe it is FACTUAL instead?

Bernie's message appealed to moderate Republicans in 2016 and 12% of his support came from them. His message hasn't changed so no reason why they won't still be supporting him in 2020.

The economy is doing SQUAT for 25% of hardworking Americans who are still earning below the Federal poverty line. They will support Bernie which effectively NEGATES the economy as an issue.

Most importantly of all the criminal IMPOTUS has a NET LOSS of 1.2 million voters from his primary voting demographic between 2016 and 2020. That averages to 60,000 per state. His wins in PA, MI and WI were all LESS than 25k.

On top of that Progressives are working hard to INCREASE the 2020 turnout which is ALWAYS a bad sign for GOP candidates.

If Bernie is on the ballot he has an excellent chance of sending the Orange Oaf packing,

The majority of the electorate are sick and tired of your drama queen in the Oval office.

 

Your rambling again...

If Bernie can not get support from the most far left mainstream new source in the country, that is not a good sign for him. You can spin that any way you like but it’s just simple truth. If the progressives at MSNBC are lukewarm to him how will the moderate Dems react on other media outlets? They will endorse him because of their Trump rage, but it will be a weakened endorsement. It will turn into better him than Trump. Think that will work?

Odd that you think America is “tired” Of Trump when his approval rating has gone up, during a impeachment attempt no less. But polls are iffy so who knows.

If Bernie or whoever they stick in there after screwing Bernie tries to use the economy against Trump they are burnt toast. Their best bet is to try and convenience people they can make the economy even better, but that’s a tough sell if your. Preaching socialism.

But we both want Bernie to be the nominee so at least have that in common.

 

Agree. Little changes except who shows up on Election Day. The right agrees too. That’s why voter suppression is such a big part of their strategy.

 

Voter suppression of illegals aliens and dead folk?

 

@Derideo_Te
Just because an article is wordy
does not lend it truthiness.



Yes Swing Voters exist.
I am one. Voted Obama in '08.
Except for Tulsi Gabbard, no Democratic candidate could win my
Trump vote this November.

Why Tulsi?
Her attitude on "Endless Wars".

The promise Trump broke about getting out of Afghanistan.
And no other candidate but Gabbard has addressed this issue!

Evidence is people vote issues over political party.
Hillary created swing votes against herself for being, "Hillary".



El Moi
Defender of Truthiness

NO ENDLESS WARS!
would be a "quickie"​

 

Corrupt to the core ? Hillary ?
After years of investigation by Republicans no charges filed.
After two years-investigation by republicans, Trumps cronies, prosecuted and trump being identified as un indicted co conspirator in a felony.

Thats over 100 gop felony to 1 for Dems in modern times. Corruption is spelled GOP.

 

. . . and minorities and women and anyone they don't like?

 

The names of the same dead people the anti AGW squad uses to play live scientists.

 

Well at least you put "and"

 

Dead names should always be purged when possible. The trouble is the GOP tries purging live voters.

 

Swing voters are a small group but with elections as close as they are lately they are an important group and their size is irrelevant.

 

At first, I was convinced this would be a turnout election, but if it's Bernie vs Trump, you're going to have A LOT of fence-sitters, right to the end. I wouldn't trust any poll. Trump is evil and Bernie is a loon. What do you do?

Because we obviously slipped into a reality-TV dimension, I fully expect Bernie to be the nominee.

 

In some states, they purged eligible voters with the same last name as dead voters.

Thats true, but only with respect to those who have had voting rights and were able to exercise those rights regularly . There are moderately small but significant numbers in voter precincts who never voted due to voter suppression that we have not idea what their political preference is.

maybe we can’t call them swing voters, but they could make a big difference in the electoral college.

 

I’m having trouble viewing Bernie as a loon. EVERYONE of his positions are supported by a majority of Americans.....you can’t say that for Trump this time around. Remember, he promised to balance the budget and give everyone cheap healthcare, not cut Medicare, SS or Medicaid. He’s proposed cuts in every social program and we’ve watched healthcare costs rise precipitously. So, whose the loon and who’s evil ? It looks like it’s one in the same.

Besides, Bernie has had the some of same proposals for decades. The populous is just catching up with him ( and Nixon who also supported UHC to save money)

The right are/is the loonie birds. They’ve switched their policies on AGW and healthcare to match their donor ‘s wishes......

 

That's not the loony stuff. You can make arguments for Bernie's positions. They're not going to persuade a lot of Americans, but the arguments are there to be made. Bernie would be a center-right politician in Germany, for example.

Bernie wants violent felons IN PRISON to have the right to vote. That would mean that a rape-victim's vote could be cancelled out by the rapist. That kind of slid under the radar, but it will be front-and-center when the Republicans start training their fire. That one thing is almost a deal-breaker for me. I don't know if I can vote for Bernie unless he walks that back.

 

Dead wrong. This is an anybody but Trump election.