An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter

It is for me, but I'm pretty far left. For a lot of my more moderate friends, Bernie scares them. They're doing well in this economy. They have pensions/401(k)'s and very good healthcare. They don't want that to change. They want a caretaker president while we sort out what's next.

On the other hand, if young people turn out (really turn out), Bernie wins. So, in that respect, it would be a turnout battle.

 

delete

 

I here you. I’m like you am not with Bernie on that view whatsoever. When I heard him on the topic, the only thing I could think of, was the ACLU position of, the worst of us have the same political rights as the rest, Fortunately there. Is no federal law addressing the issue and it’s a state determination. I do appreciate how Bernie has walked the walk when it comes to campaign financing one of the big determining factor for me,

 

I remind my more conservative friends of this. 401ks are unaffected and for most, helped by Medicare for all. You can’t take employer based healthcare with you, and like GM threatened to do, they can drop everyone in a heart beat. Also, like millions of American middle class, during a recession, you lose your healthcare if labor reduction leaves you out in the cold.

Private health insurance is not portable if you want to move you can’t easily, and you’re beholding to a select few making it harder for you to do something only you want


Employers have x amount of dollars to deal with. The rising cost of HC has forced them to keep up and keep a lid on wages. Medicare for al, frees up more Money in negotiations for higher wages and Benifits other then HC. ,

Private vs Medicare is insurance, not actual healthcare. It has nothing to do with whom you get your care from.,

 

I know, but a lot of people who grew up in the cold war think "socialism" and cringe.

 

Well, they are right. But, they thought Roosevelt was a socialist too....and they were right. What do they think Medicare and SS are ? It’s all socialism. We live in a mixed economy......

 

But the boomers who cringe at "socialism" are far fewer in number than ten years ago.

This will not be a war cry for the right that works.

 

Every politician who has bet on young people has always been disappointed. Maybe this time's different.

 

I here you. Of the millions who lost there jobs during the bush recession, the checks kept coming for SS recipients and anyone on Medicare got their healthcare without skipping a beat. We’re way overdue for a recession if Trump is elected.

Social programs increase stability....medicare for all is the ultimate in stability.

 

Well, there was Jack Kennedy, Bill Clinton , Obama ......all got the young vote. I’m optimistic.

 

They are 20 to 40, FL, and with the educated genxrs, far more than enough.

 

Most people who even knew what socialism actually was cringe whenever it's brought up in the old way. For God's sake, just about all of the "Boomers" had the entirety of their youth distorted and spoiled by a struggle to prevent a nation none of us had ever heard of and certainly cared about even less from becoming the Southeast Asian version of Sweden. We lost 50,000 of our friends and Vietnam is now a bigger tourist destination than Japan. Socialism is the bullshit that enabled old men to send us off to die for no reason whatsoever and we just don't want to hear about it anymore.

That being said I agree with most of the pundits who are saying that Trump and the Trumpers are hoping beyond hope that we will run Bernie because he is the one Dem who might lose to Trump. The reasons are summed up well by Flaming Lib in post 52

 

It’s hilarious. We have a program called “social security”, and for some reason, non readers think it’s not socialism.

 

Do you have a source for Bernie wanting to allow incarcerated violent felons the right to vote?

 

Those "young" people are no longer as young as you imagine and they are now out in the workforce and realizing that the massive college debt burden that was imposed upon them is an OBSTACLE to them achieving their goals and ambitions. They were raised understanding that they need to vote if they want change and they OUTNUMBERED the Boomers in the previous election. They will outnumber them AGAIN in 2020 only by an even larger margin.

 

How is it socialism? How does it involve the people owning the means of production? It is a system of retirement pensions, mainly old-age insurance and it is run by the government, but that doesn't make it socialism, not unless the military, the police, the roads, indeed every part of the government and the whole of government itself, is socialism.

Insurance is not socialism, insurance is one of the basics of modern capitalism, it couldn't exist without it

Surely you're not saying it's socialism just because the word "social" is in it? (Mark Zuckerberg is going to be surprised to know he's akin to Karl Marx )

 

That's very encouraging, Maybe Bernie can win. I sure hope so if he runs. I support most of what he says rather strongly but I just don't think most Americans agree with me on that and I see Trump's losing as far more important than ANYTHING this year.

If Trump wins I don't think we'll see an even putatively honest election again for a very long time.

 

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com...esidential-campaign-cnn-town-hall/3549947002/

Put this way it doesn't sound that bad. It's really only a relatively few people

 

The demographic trends themselves are unstoppable irrespective of the attempt to build walls.

The best the nefarious GOP can do is Minority Voter Suppression and Negative Campaign advertising. Both have proven to be effective in the past when it comes to suppressing turnout which is the ONLY way they can prevail.

Progressives are addressing the issue of voter suppression in the courts and targeting eligible unaffiliated voters with Bernie's messaging. Many of these people have never registered to vote so getting them to the polls is a massive effort but one that will be effective IMO.

Negative Campaign advertising was a factor in reducing the turnout for Hillary in key swing states in 2016. There needs to be a strategy to block that in the early stages of the presidential campaign. I am not aware of any strategy in that regard but the reverse is true. The criminal IMPOTUS was an UNKNOWN and therefore difficult to target with negative ads. That has all changed now and I have little doubt that he will be on the receiving end given his boorish and uncouth attitude.

Agreed that this is a CRUCIAL election because the criminal IMPOTUS has now been told by the feckless GOP Senate cowards that he is Above the Law of the Land. Another 4 years will do irreparable damage to our nation IMO.

 

Thank you! I was unaware of that policy in Vermont and Maine. It does sound like a reasonable idea as shown in that article and it is certainly an improvement over the venal FL system where a single conviction effectively eliminates the rights of ex felons to vote ever again. There is probably a compromise line that needs to be drawn between these two positions.

Interesting that Bernie is willing to embrace the concept while Mayor Mike refuses to countenance it given that not so long ago gays were imprisoned for "crimes" that would have deprived them of their voting rights.

 

That's something that stuck out to me looking at the NH exit polls, Bernie generally does progressively worse the older the age group: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/new-hampshire-results

One silver lining is that 82% said they would support the D nominee regardless, which was about an even distribution % wise for all candidate supporters with the notable exception of Gabbard. I really wish they were more granular with that line of question to determine if X being the nominee means they will stay home or vote Trump as switching is a far worse consequence (since that puts you down by 2 votes) than abstaining.

 

I don't understand that. Older people are more likely to be on Social Security and Trump is cutting that already

Are old people just stupid or what?. I'm old and I see what Trump wants to do to us, what is wrong with my demographic?

 

The preamble to the constitution starts with, “ we the people”,
Did you forget that the entire federal Govt is a social construct ? It couldn’t be more plain. Your taxes buy into to the ownership of the social security insurance plan.

Now you’re saying that the government doesn’t know how th speak English. Those who have spent decades working in the federal military and state government will tell you differently . Everything from the oath of office to your work detail is explicit in grammatically correct terms to express your obligations to “ the people” and their rights. These layers of socialism from federal to state and local governance is founded on collectivism which is the very foundation of socialism and the public ownership of everything they do, procure and represent.

We are a mixed economy of capitalism and socialism. I challenge anyone to prove differently using any institute of higher learning, one of the foundations of our democracy.... .of course some will pretend they know more then every university and free world government in the world when it comes to AGW, so denying we are also social constructs will be just as easy....and wrong.

 

Exactly...and it happened before.
Romney’s campaign was dearly inhibited by choosing Paul Ryan, the figure head of the rights planned social security and Medicare cuts. They had to hide him on the campaign trail. He was one of the dumbest vice presidential selections ever as the author of welfare cuts...

 

I’m so far left I quit the Democratic Party to become independent of their incessant willingness to compromise so much with Republicans. It left us with the only free country in the world without universal healthcare, and an economy that routinely sufferers recessions at the hand of compromised GOP lead economies, citizen united and a judiciary top heavy with conservative thinkers.

Independents rule in number and a substantial number are Bernie Bros who think the same way. That’s why a majority of the people back his programs even though many Democrats and Republicans still support more conservative candidates. They don’t even get that Bernie is on their side because of the incessant miss use of a simple word..