Brexit will be Titanic success, says Boris Johnson

The economists were talking about the consequences to the British economy of the exit from the EU. There also was some discussion about the vote having an impact on stocks.

 

My first question was rhetorical in that I was comparing our imports to exports from those countries.

In what world do you think that the UK could have a positive trade balance with India?

I'm afraid that you are being delusional here. Our trade with our biggest market of Germany will suffer because of brexit. Also Trump is promoting protectionism. We cannot compete with low wage countries like China and India. Those non-eu countries are predominantly exporting countries so we will need to impose tax on imports, we cannot afford free trade deals.

 

One of the plusses the brexiters were saying was that we would still have a great trade deal with the US. But Trump has a protectionism policy - that plus is no longer there if Trump sticks to his promise (I doubt it though)

 

They have been wrong before eg. UK joining the Euro.

 

You asked a question, you just got an answer you didn't like.

India's imports are expected to grow by 11% over the next few years, while their exports are predicted to grow by 10.8%, The areas of opportunities for UK businesses post Brexit are agribusiness, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and healthcare. In 2014 India accounted for 1.7% of the UK’s total exports, and 1.9% of total imports, again restricted by the EU, so far a trade agreement between the EU and India has taken 9 years and is still no where near being completed .. according to a number of Indian business leaders a trade deal could be negotiated between a post Brexit UK and India in as little as 12 months. The largest commodity exported from India to the UK is textiles which has been steadily falling since 1995, UK merchandise exports to India are now composed more of commodities, particularly oil and gold, machinery forms a smaller proportion.

Germany is not our biggest export market, the US is and despite Trumps claims I don't think he will be able to deliver on them. Our trade with Germany will not be under any great threat, there is no way that Germany car manufacturers are going to allow the EU to undermine it purely in an attempt to punish the UK, same goes for French wine producers .. if the EU were to impose tariffs it would have a greater detrimental effect on them than it would on us. If the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal UK exporters could face the potential impact of £5.2 billion in tariffs on goods being sold to the EU. However, EU exporters will also face £12.9 billion in tariffs on goods coming to the UK.
Exporters to the UK in 22 of the 27 remaining EU member states face higher tariffs costs when selling their goods than UK exporters face when selling goods to those countries.
German exporters would have to deal with the impact of £3.4 billion of tariffs on goods they export to the UK. UK exporters in return would face £0.9 billion of tariffs on goods going to Germany.
French exporters could face £1.4 billion in tariffs on their products compared to UK exporters facing £0.7 billion. A similar pattern exists for all the UK’s major EU trading partners.
The biggest impact will be on exports of goods relating to vehicles, with tariffs in the region of £1.3 billion being applied to UK car-related exports going to the EU. This compares to £3.9 billion for the EU, including £1.8 billion in tariffs being applied to German car-related exports.

In total the EU faces a potential of having to deal with the cost of £12.9 billion in UK tariffs, an average levy of 5.8%, and UK exporters face EU tariffs of £5.2 billion, an average of 4.5%.

Not true, In 2014, India exported $292B and imported $421B, resulting in a negative trade balance of $129B.

 

We have deals with those countries through the EU, Fugazi.
Because we are a member state of the EU. While it's true some countries have shown an interest ( and why wouldn't they? )the kind of deal Britain gets will depend on what kind of deal we get from the EU.
As a soft brexit seems out of the question, then watch as the interest of many of those countries melts away.

 

What are you going on about. I already knew those figures - they are easily seen on the internet !

Yea, those gold mines are flourishing in the UK and the question was "In what world do you think that the UK could have a positive trade balance with India? ", not what is India's trade figures with the whole world.

None of this helps your case. How would your wish for free trade benefit the UK given that we import more than we export?

Please keep in context. We are discussing the UK trade figures with India and the other 26 countries on your list, not global trade figures

 

You asked a question, I answered, you then decided to move the goalposts.

A post Brexit world

AS I said one of the reasons our balance is that way because we do not have the capability to negotiate as the UK with India while still a member of the EU, and when you consider the reality that India has one of the fastest increasing wealth per capita there are opportunities for us to tap into that market.

You made a statement, all I have done is show it was incorrect, only after the fact do you now want to move the goalposts.

 

Only if Britain relaxes the immigration controls - and that's not going to happen.

What brexit supporters need to understand is you can't have your cake and eat it.

There will be no trade deals without relaxing visa rules.

 

India wealth per capita $6,000
UK wealth per capita $41,000

There is no market for UK goods there !

 

Let there be none then - we won't be cowed nor blackmailed by a bunch of foreign jobsworths who need us more than we need them.

 

Sure ... British Authorities now very well to handle a "Titanic Success"...

 

And who does these jobs then in the UK ... for which no British is willing to do at least?

 

That's the least of the problems. We have no trade deals. None.

 

Lol ... investigate again and this time much better please. No trade deals, sure.

 

Well, obviously we do at the moment - but only through the EU. Once we've left the EU those treaties end.

New ones will need to be negotiated.Theresa May is finding out that being open to trade but not immigration is not winning wholehearted support.

 

As I stated India's wealth per capita is one of the fastest growing and has seen an increase in 211% over the last 15 years, compared to a 58% increase for the UK,

UK’s top 10 goods exports to India include:

non ferrous metals (mainly silver)
non-metallic mineral manufactures (mainly gems and jewellery)
power generating machinery and equipment
metalliferous ores and metal scrap
general industrial machinery and equipment
electrical machinery and appliances
professional, scientific and controlling instruments and apparatus
transport equipment and machinery specialised for particular industries

The UK’s main exports in terms of services are:

travel and transport
business services such as consulting and publishing
financial services

 

The figures that you have used are worse for India than the figures I used !. In fifteen years, India wealth per capital rose by 1000, the UK rose by 15,000. The average Indian cannot afford to buy our products.

This is getting worse for your argument unless you think that the UK mineral mines and semi-precious stones are flourishing. Scrap metal !. Our scientific instruments are exported there (a friend works for one of those companies) and their turn over is only enough to support a small work force and they export world wide ps you don't have tariffs on service and India is our call centre head office ie we pay them. Face it, India can manufacture our products for a fraction of our cost to manufacture.

 

Actually, yes. They are a relatively modern invention and not usually a good idea. There are always winners and losers and what history is showing is that the more advanced the economy, the more the loser. They are generally also not needed. Look at UK exports. Our biggest single export country is the USA, which we currently have no full trade deal as the glorious EU take geological lengths of time to get round to doing anything and then manage to come up with TTIP.

Look at the USA, people are talking about Trumps promise to tear up NAFTA, but this was also a main campaign promise of Obama and the reason being it has caused incredible misery to workers in the USA. It benefited Mexico as car companies headed south.

 

I don't really understand your point but the EU trade deals benefitted us with trade with the US. eg car exports from EU into the US had 2.5% tax, car imports from the US into EU had 10% tax

 

If there's any aggro from the EU jobsworths my next car won't be a BMW.

 

I am always amazed by the people who only look short term and cannot fathom that places like India are expanding markets with a population that have increasing wealth who are looking to buy.

 

Sure ... those existing treaties with the EU and also those of the EU with others which are currently valid for the UK will end. Sure ... new treaties have to be done and anyone telling otherwise shows to have no clue, but aside any treaties of the UK with whomever in the rest world which are only an internal issue of the UK, there have to be done a bunch of new treaties between UK and EU as they are existing between Norway and Switzerland with the EU.

And if you are honest to yourself, it is clear that these treaties are at least all compromises and of both sides a matter of giving and taking! Neither the EU, nor the UK is in any position to demand only where the other side has only to accept.

 

I'm always honest to myself. As Britain will no longer be part of the single market, we'll be stuffed.

 

Well if you are pinning all your hopes on India, the UK will be bankrupt within the next 20 years