"Brxit" - Will Britain's citizens decide to leave the EU in June?

This report is from 2010, and the numbers provided with 15 billion ₤ total per year, were not off from my own though. This entire document basically points out the governments complain that what they pay into the EU they don't get back. This completely ignores the infrastructural investments by the EU outside primarily the EU15 which help sell British products. No matter how hard they try, sales of Jaguars won't go up by much in the UK, but if highways are build in Poland and her economy thrives, Poland will buy more Jaguars which they will want to replace with their old Ladas and Soviet era cars. This was the point from the beginning, to rebuild the infrastructure of these countries to boost sales of your own products and services.

The UK also has the UK rebate which allows the UK contributions to be reduced by ~6 billion Euro. See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate

The total investment since the early 2000 is obviously pointed out for propaganda purposes. Pointing out that the EU costs Brits less than 1₤ per day and resident, doesn't sell the complaining attitude.

 

There are legal and treaty restrictions on them punishing us if we remain too but you suggested that will happen. There are always ways around these things to make life more difficult than it needs to be. My point stands that if they were going to punish us for just holding the referendum, they’d do that regardless of the result and if anything would have more incentive to do so if the result is actually to leave.

I’ve read several different UKIP manifestos over the years (including the one Farage distanced himself from). All parties have policy platforms covering the major issues but that doesn’t stop them being, in practice and the all-important public image, single issue parties. The Greens are another example of that and are greatly limited in their electoral success (under the current system at least) as a result. They can certainly evolve away from that but UKIP show no sign of being able to do so if the foreseeable future.

 

To be perfectly honest, I can't think of one benefit or advantage that membership of the EU has brought us.

 

Seeing that 2 hours on, and I haven't been enlightened, it looks like nobody else can either? So let's git while the gittin's good??

 

Like I said before if you read my posts, the benefits for the UK are based on new markets they can fully act in. Rather than British companies paying 10 or 20% import and/or export tax, the Brits finance with less that 1₤ per day and inhabitant, the infrastructure for 300+ million new customers for them. I mentioned the car manufacturer Jaguar, which can't possibly boost sales on the UK market substantially, nor can they in France, Germany or the USA. However, Poland's inhabitants might buy if they would be able to.

Years ago political might was gained with wars. This is now passé. These days it's companies at war. A war for new customers! And no matter what you do, you can't make Germans buy more Jaguars and reduce their purchase on Mercedes or BMW. Germany being close to Poland and a very important trading partner would naturally conquer the Polish market sooner than French or British companies, because the countries would negotiate contracts. With the EU, Brits get the same benefit, and can more easily sell their products in a market with 500 million inhabitants, rather than just UK's 64 million. Naturally every country protects their own brands and companies from foreign companies. That's why it is very hard to protect the UK market from US corporate interests or Chinese corporate interests. A united European cause protects their market, has a powerful position because they represent 500 million potential customers with a significant spending power.

To top it off British company's know-how can combine their economic might with German know-how and finance and more easily conquer new markets. Like I said before: Germany and France is no longer Britain's geopolitical enemy but rather China and the USA.

 

The "incumbency factor" will, alas, tip us into staying. People fear change.

 

Such as?

 

If the 2010 report is not to your liking how about 2014 - http://www.timcongdon4ukip.com/docs/EU2014.pdf

The report takes into account the rebate, and you think that being a member of the EU helps with sales of cars in Poland, do you really believe that if the UK were not a member of the EU that car sales would suffer .. I don't.

 

I disagree, unless the EU are in the business of creating detrimental effects to it's member states and their work force then they are not going to play hard ball with the UK, we often hear about the so called 3 million jobs in the UK (which is a myth anyway) with links to the EU, yet we seldom hear about the 5 million jobs in the EU linked to the UK .. do you really think that the EU bureaucrats are going to risk any of those jobs? I don't see the EU as some sort of spoiled brat who when they cannot get their own way throws a tantrum, and if that is what they are even more reason to get out. - http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Briefing_1502_The EU Jobs Myth_web.pdf

They already have.

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That is a myth.

 

I cannot find numbers in that report indicating that the UK pays more per resident than more than half of EU15 countries. I still don't feel my initial statement was wrong.

Cars were just one example, but the UK exports a lot of goods and services into continental Europe, which would be another country without the EU and therefore UK services would be more expensive than the German or French competition. To put it into practical numbers:

55% of all the exports of the UK came from the EU according to this source: https://fullfact.org/economy/do-half-uks-exports-go-europe/

The revenue created because of these exports is ₤229 billion. Wikipedia claims that the UK paid 2014 €11.34 billion which is roughly ₤9 billion into the EU in 2014. Similar to the numbers of your report. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union#EU-28_contributions_.282014.29

That means that a 4% reduction in exports into the EU would cost Britain as much as the full contribution into the EU to maintain these exports and to build on them by increasing sales in the eastern part of the EU.

A "Brxit" will have an effect on exports and imports, the real question is how much. Do you think that more British companies and services will loose more than 4% of their customers and clients if we have to pay 10 or 20% more? Do you think it might be maybe even more? Would you expect the export into the UK to go up in price too? And if so what do we export to the UK vs. what the UK exports to Europe?

I have to assume that for us Vodafone and Jaguar will get more expensive, and we'll buy alternatives, however for the people in the UK food prices will probably go up most...

Why is a 10 to 20% customs and VAT tax a myth? I pay it for every country outside the EU. Now however, I purchase products in the UK which is in the EU and pay VAT in Britain, not in Austria.

 

I'd suggest fully reading what you linked to, the 55% figure is for the whole of Europe and not just the EU, our exports to the EU have fallen consistently since 2008 and stands at around 44% currently, where as our exports to non-EU countries has grown over the same time period, the EU is the only market where there is no economic growth. The EU’s share of global GDP has fallen from 30% in 1993 to 24% in 2013, this is because growth in non-EU economies has outpaced growth of EU economies.

Can I ask are you talking about services or goods?

 

I was talking about both combined because I feel that both create revenue for the UK.

Why is EU's share of the global GDP important? Naturally if other countries seize to be poor, they will get a bigger slice of the pie. The UK's share of global GDP went down, so has the USA's. As I pointed out it is hard to grow in these countries, and sell even more cars or services when the market is full with all kinds of products already. Austria has 9 million cars and 8.5 million inhabitants. I don't think car manufacturers can hope to "grow" much.

But maybe you're right. Investments into Non-EU countries who also won't join any time soon in Europe like Belarus, Ukraine and Russia might be better than Rumania, Bulgaria or something like that. I personally think that the EU is a brilliant tool to use to bring our products into these markets and then we can also implement the infrastructure and laws required for our businesses to thrive.

I just think that economically it will be bad for the UK if they choose to leave. I also think it would be bad for England if Scotland chose to leave, because I look at it more economically. I just cannot see any benefit for the UK leaving. The government might have ₤9 billion more, as you claim, but might loose much more than that in businesses. A country of 64 million inhabitants cannot be competitive midterm or longterm on the global stage, not with countries like China (1.35 billion), India (1.25 billion), EU (440 million without the UK) and USA (330 million). The people of the UK would have to outproduce these countries mentioned multiple times to be competitive, otherwise Walmart or Aldi or god knows who drops in and buys companies in the UK. I personally think Jaguar and Vodafone should remain British and thrive in markets like Rumania, and buy companies in China and America, rather than someone from these countries dropping by and buying the shares.

 

Ukraine. Iran. Syria. Libya. It would seem Britain are more likely to become subservient to US interests.

 

I understand what you are saying, but personally I just don't find the argument compelling enough to become little more than the overseer ruled by the master. Neither do I agree that our exit would have the effects you are suggesting .. in the end we don't know how it would turn out, but not knowing for me is not an excuse not to find out.

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Personally I disagree.

 

Yes, a notional 500 million 'potential customers' who very soon, when the Euro crashes and burns - and it will! - won't be able to afford to buy food for their tables, never mind anything we export.

I don't think there's anything the Germans can learn from us, especially in the field of engineering. And even if they could, they'd take full advantage of the knowledge for their own purposes, and who would blame them for that? Whether we like it or not, self-interestedness is part of the human condition, and much as we've been brainwashed to believe they're 'our partners', the plain fact is that, just like in the rat race of real life, it's every man for himself.

France and Germany et al are on the point of going broke big-time: China, the USA, South America and India are our future markets, and they can afford to buy what we produce and develop - and they won't try to exploit our efforts like our 'partners' would. The EU is a failed project, and we're about to watch it implode. Either you're wearing rose-tinted spectacles where the EU is concerned, or you're somehow involved in it at a personal level.

Just one addition: it was reported on the BBC tv news last night that the EU has paid Turkey 3 billion euros to stem migration: there has been no noticeable reduction of the 'tsunami', nor will there be, and I'll bet that the EU will very soon be making even more, because it is perfectly clear that the intellectual deficit of this disastrous project is proving for all to see that it has not the the faintest idea what to do about it. Only one thing is clear, and that's that there is no 'going back'!

 

I so hope you're wrong Jim. This is our only chance to get ourselves out of this imbroglio of incompetent, self-serving bureaucracy.

 

Sorry, I mistakenly thought you were the same poster I'd initially responded to (Sixteen String Jack). He said the EU would punish us for having the referendum and I was saying that was a silly idea. You and I seem to be in agreement on that.

 

No problem, it can get confusing in here I've done exactly the same thing a number of times.

 

after the referendum, I thought it would be interesting to reopen this topic as it gives us a nice view of before and after discussions.

The first reaction of the Brexit result hit the Birtish Pound Sterling (around -11% vs USD) and the British stock exchange (around -7%) and that is before anything really happened. The UK is still a member of the EU and will remain to be one for at least a few more months or even years. Any "Bregret"?

 

None .. it was expected for there to be a reaction on Sterling and the markets. The pound has recovered to be only down 1.67% from it's best against the dollar of the last 12 months ($1.5818 ) and the FTSE 100 has recovered to only be down 3.15%

 

Ahem. It was expected that the pound would plummet and the pound has plummeted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636853

 

Oh ye of little faith! Be steadfast, give it time, and it will plummet back up again!

 

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?cid=3279669

doesn't look all that convincing

 

http://www.iod.com/influencing/press-office/press-releases/first-signs-brexit-will-hit-jobs

 

And recovering.