"Brxit" - Will Britain's citizens decide to leave the EU in June?

Again too early to tell.

 

Only because of Mark Carney's intervention.

We're in deep doo doo, economically speaking

 

You wish!! How small-minded it is to wish ill upon the entire population of a country just to mitigate your sour grapes.

 

The fact the economy is sliding down the drain is nothing to do with me, but is down to the people who voted to leave.

Pretending it isn't happening isn't going to work with me.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1718536/pound-and-ftse-make-gains-after-brexit-slump

Read it and weep - as I'm sure you will! Traitor.

Oh and that's after only 4 days from the result??

 

That is his job, and how anyone can say we are in "deep doo doo" after less than a week is silly.

 

Are we, or a we not?



Boris Johnson has said that leaving the EU would result in “no economic shock” at all to the UK, despite the claims of economists including the Bank of England’s own Governor to the contrary.

Who was right and who was wrong?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...outlook-from-stable-to-negative-a7102031.html

Things are looking very bad.

Hopefully things will improve once we decide to either stay or remain in the single market, but it'll take a very long time.

I'm not going to pretend otherwise to make you two feel better.

Meanwhile there's this to mull over:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hought-uk-stay-in-eu-remain-win-a7102516.html

You could not make it up.

 

There was obviously going to be a reaction to a leave vote, to imply the sky is falling after less than a week is just silly.

nothing to mull over.

 

https://translate.google.com/transl...-dem-brexit-a-1100473.html&edit-text=&act=url

I used google for the translation into English, which I hope will at least transfer the meaning

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388

BBC pointed out the shift as well...

 

Stock market is higher than before brexit.
the over-valued pound lower than it's been for years.
foreign investment coming in at record speeds.

Looks like Brexit is working great for the economy so far.
If only we had joined the Euro... then the UK wouldn't have had such a total economic disaster as the EU zealots predicted. Only it turned out good. As will Brexit.
Let the EU zealots and vested interests cry their little eyes out. No reason why the rest of us should embrace poverty for their vanity.

 

I'm going to quote this for posterity.

Anyway, This gives an explanation:

https://financialadvice-network.co.uk/news/stock-markets-begin-to-recover-after-initial-brexit-shock

Despite the partial recovery in value of shares and currencies, market experts have warned that further fluctuations are likely to continue as the uncertainty around the UK economy lingers. Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital, stated: “The post-Brexit reality will bite sooner or later. What we’re seeing in the FTSE is hope in Britain being able to ride it out by remaining part of the single market. This looks like wishful thinking”.

Mr Rundle also highlighted how the FTSE 100 has more of an international focus, and that British firms have tended to lose more as a result of Brexit, adding: “UK-focused firms are doing much worse – EasyJet, Lloyds, Barclays, RBS, Barratt, Taylor Wimpey – have all recorded 20% losses since the Brexit vote

Don't count your chickens, Baff.

 

I don't know too many Brits but it certainly feels in the reports I read much like the people who voted to leave, did so on the bases of nationalism rather than rationalism.
I just don't believe that they could have been that poorly informed and just not realize that this would be bad for the UK economy to getting excluded from an economic union with 430 million other inhabitants. The EU regulations for products will have to remain if British companies wish to export to the EU, so in terms of law little can change. Maybe the UK can go back to the imperial rather than the metric system or something like that, but the vast majority of the laws set by the EU will have to remain, especially if they involve something which ought to be exported into the EU. In the same way that American companies follow UK regulations before they can enter the UK's or EU's market. A natural reaction, which also had to be expected, is that that the EU makes an example out of the UK's exit, and doesn't negotiate. I think that's why they've been so hesitant to get the exit process started. This uncertainty doesn't help anybody, and the UK's representatives know that they will be fully excluded from all trade deals if they get the process started. If they're lucky they can renegotiate some of them but I doubt that all 27 countries will approve. If one says no, which could be as small as Malta, they can't make a deal. This also means that the UK will have to start charging customs again for European products and the other way around as well. Naturally, EU products will therefore jump in price, in all likelihood by 10 to 20% and for us UK's products may become more expensive unless the British Pound Sterling falls enough vs. the Euro to even things out, however, that would mean that prices in the UK would jump even more.

I think the real beneficiary of these development will be Ireland and most likely Dublin, because UK's companies who are already working in other countries, will want things to remain and move some of their offices or production to Ireland. I also hear that many plan on moving their production facilities to France and Germany, which will get confirmed as British representatives start the EU exit.

 

South Korea is an Asian country but it signed a free trade deal with the EU in 2011 without the free movement of persons and Britain should be able to sign another FTA with the EU, too. But the Germans are keen on wrecking the British economy further by kicking Britain out of the customs union and EU negotiations are postponed until next year.

 

I don't understand why this is too surprising though. British people voted to leave the EU. Isn't it then in the interest of the politicians who argued so enthusiastically to brake those ties we build over the last few decades?
I don't see the argument to give Brits, who don't wan't to work with the European Union any FTA either. Over the past decades the British representatives complained as much as the people did of the entire concept of the EU, now they have the foundation for their "Independence day" and live with all the consequences of this choice.

If the EU doesn't make an example and fast-tracks by throwing them out of the FTA and everything else, other country's people might decide to follow the British lead, rather than working with their neighboring countries. The consequences have to be obvious, and many Brits still think that leaving the EU is a good idea.

 

Nice.
I wish you well also.
It is not our aim to mess you up in any way and we are still here if we can help.
We apologise for any disturbance to your lives.
We still want to trade with you and holiday with you and talk bollocks online with you and fall in love with you and all those things we always have.
But we like to have our own style. It's important to us and to be honest the economics side of the EU never really stacked up as much in the first place. It's not a biggie to give up. More for some less for others. We are from the less camp.

It's been great for my economy so far mate.
Pound is low. Foreigners love us. I am cheaper than my competition. My bookings have doubled in a week.
Almost no one in the EU exports goods to the EU. That makes up 0.5% of GDP and totally pisses off the other 99.5% of GDP'ers who it opens to regulating.
It's not on. Anti-social behaviour.

They key to this is that any drop in the pound advantages our exports which is what we most need. Brexit has been a lucky break for us in this department and delivered what the Bank of England has been failing to for the last 8 years. A market correction.
So right now, Brexiters are laughing. Whether or not that continues for long is a whole different story. So today. I laugh the laugh of a man whose prospects are on the up.
Ask me again next month and I may feel quite different.

But I won't have the EU to blame for that any more. I get to focus my Zen elsewhere.

 

BREXIT - it's good ...
Soon the "united Europe" will not ..
--------------
BREXIT, .... DEXIT....
Hho is NEX IT?



==================================
This rabble "united Europe" should be closed ..
There's some homosexuals ..

yes "border states", which are used to "suck" ..
Lithuania, Latvia, Poland ... the whole rabble of Eastern Europe....

==============================
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Plumber

 

You may get even happier with the pound dropping even below 1.28 Dollars, which is a reduction by 15% since the vote. All those people saying that if the money is worth less that that is a bad thing, certainly don't think of exports, but rather the imports, which the UK still has to do. The problem is the fact that the UK exported in April of 2016 25 billion and imports 41 billion pound sterling. Meaning there was 16 billion more imports than exports.

Let's calculate then, and use the simplest possible scenario, which implies that the UK will import in July again similarly to April, however due to the week pound, they'll have to do so by paying more. Prior to the vote you got 1.3 Euros for every British pound, and now we're down to 1.17 Euro, which is a reduction by 11%, so less dramatic compared to the dollar.

The imports therefore will probably increase by 11% as well. So if nothing changes you're looking at imports of around 45-46 billion pound sterling to get the exact same goods and services than in April of the same year. If you know chose to have the same deficit as before with the 16 billion, it would mean that exports to the UK should be around the 30 billion pound mark, implying with it a 17% increase in exports without changing the amount of imports. I certainly hope that you and other companies like you can create 5 extra billion in revenue in the EU compared to previous months just to brake even. However, also keep in mind that the 11% value difference implies our EU exports boost British prices by 11% in the worst case scenario as well, so prices ought to go up a couple of percentage points on average, and you guys have to create about 17% more exports to brake even.

source:
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1M

 

And what is this (*)(*)(*)(*)?

 

Seriously, people should stop accusing people negative to the European Union for being nationalists, racists, idiots and so fourth. You should rather say rationalists.

The European Union has som serious problems by it nature of setup. The union is not built for economic prosperity as the politicians and blind economers think. There are simply too many problems for it to be efficient.

The GDP average growth from 2005 to 2015 was in the European Union 0,8% anually. Compared to the US that was really bad. Despite the 2008 crisis the US averaged 1,8% annual GDP growth in the same period. Norway who is not in the union averaged 1,4% annual GDP growth, Switzerland another European country averaged 2% and Australia 2,8%. The European Union as a unit is underperforming about all other industrialized countries in the world.

They you say people in UK want to leave it because they are not rational? That is pure bulls**t.

I have written an article in norwegian here that sums up some of the biggest problems with the European Union. Go to it and let Google translate.

Very short sum up of the article
1. Too much bureacrazy costs money
2. Too many countries have joined the union of different economic standards, cultures, languages etc. If having an economic union the economy itself in the different countries should be similar, if not you will end up in economic trouble.
3. The politicians have distanced themselves from the people. Politicians today dont listen to people, they want people listen to them. That is a big problem. They have also made themselves an elite with high salaries and superman retirement packs... that is a serious problem. Also, the general public in Europe does not even know how the union works.
4. Politicians have lost their trust due to several reasons. They do a bad job and still raise their own salaries and welfare deals. Also corruption is a big problem in several European countries.
5. Ineffective socialistic thought of distributing money from rich countries and regions to poor. This is not good for the economy. Businesses and regions must learn how to make their own living. Otherwise we will end up supporting ineffective and rather sick organizations and countries.
6. Countries that are net payers to poor regions are naturally more negative. England paid a lot of money to the union and Scotland recieved a lot of money. Therefore also the Scottish people were natually mor positive to the union. If the scottish had been net payers I would had put a bet that the Scottish had been as negative to the union as the English.
7. EU as a unit is totally powerless on the global arena due to the simple fact that there is no one person that speaks for everyone. 23 countries does never agree on important matters like for example how to treat the situation in Syria or the immigration crisis. The outcome of this is that EU is doing more or less nothing. It acts as slow as a turtle and have no internal backup from all the countries involved.
8. Politicians robbed the taxpayers and ruined their own countries during the finacial crisis in 2008. The banks have never paid anything back which they should have done. Useless politicians that made a bad job gave themselves higher salaries and left the taxpayers stuck in the mud.

I can discuss all these matters with much more depth.

And you seriolusly wonder how people can be surprised that the UK wanted to leave this useless union? Get a reality check people. I live in norway and luckily we are not in this crap.

Best Regards,
Vilhelm
newsfeeda.com
kredittkort-listen.no

 

Yes, but the lower our pound, the less we will import. And that is the time honoured way we fix our trade deficit. That and tariff's.

What is important to recognise is that although we export 25 billion in goods and services, we only export 5 Billion in goods and most of those don't go to the EU.
And since services are even not covered by the EU single market, we don't really care that much if we are not in it.

British prices of foreign goods go up by whatever percent, means that rival British domestic goods are comparatively cheaper by the same percentage. Encouraging us to buy British and hence correct our deficit and advantage our own economy and people with our own trade first.

So, we could pay more for our foreign goods, or we could change our shopping habits and buy something else for the same money. It's our own free choice.
I couldn't care less if EU goods go up in price. I don't need to buy any. Sorry.
What the hell does Slovenia produce that I want to buy exactly? Get real. I've never even heard of the place.

I recognise the validity of the point you are making, but you are overplaying it's importance to anyone here.

 

The lower the pound the less you'll import and export, is a weird goal to have if you'd like Britain to remain competitive on the world stage. In your mind it seems the most ideal economy worth emulating comes in the form of North-Korea, which hardly exports and imports any goods. If that is the goal, then by all means, you've made the first step with the Brexit, and hopefully will continue your mission in a British recession and depression, continuing the path of less imports and exports.

While I see that you're proud to share the fact that you never looked at a map of Europe, I certainly hope you've heard of North-Korea. If not, do buy yourself a book.

Also your encouragement to buy British products by making sure that imports go up in price is admirable. I look forward to the British brand phones and computers you guys will get to use soon, never mind British cars finally outselling other brands. Luckily you'll also won't have to import oil or gas to the island anymore, and who cares if that jumps in price a dozen percentage points. And who wouldn't prefer British wine over some French or Italian brand...

Look at all these useless imports: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/#Imports

If you look closer at the link you may also see how much trading is going on between the EU and the UK. This is not a bad thing, in fact, the more you trade with someone, the better your country is off. And seemingly the UK's citizens don't want to view the EU as "domestic" trade, and rather wish it to be foreign trade.

On another note, the German business institutes recommended German companies to start moving out of the UK as fast as possible, before laws change which might make leaving the UK harder. German companies employ 500,000 Brits. That's part of this brilliant plan to reduce imports and exports as well, so you should encourage that process, of moving as much of this workload to Ireland or another EU country.

Maybe the source I provided will let you know who the trading partners of the UK are, and how smart it is to brake those economic ties.

 

I'll take that as a "no" you don't want to buy our goods.
So a free trade agreement with you is not warranted.

I'm sure the whole world will gang up with you to turn us into North Korea. And I'm sure we are all lying awake in our beds at night bricking our little pants about that.

Just get on with it.
If you want to trade we are open for business.
Or, if you would prefer to threaten or cry, threaten or cry.

Our stuff is cheap. Come check us out.

 

I will be as honest as I can be:

I don't want to buy foreign products. I see a choice between a local brand and a foreign brand as a choice on where to stimulate the economy. But I considered a brand made in Spain, UK or Austria equal due to the EU. Because the "free trade agreement" is not warranted by UK's citizens (as shown with the referendum), I put as much emphasis now on buying British brands as I do when I see the product made in Kazakhstan. I make sure not to purchase anything British from this point forth because it was demonstrated that more than half of Brits don't wish to work with us (aka the rest of EU).

I don't expect the world to gang up on Britain, but I do see the Brits themselves isolating themselves. They said loud and clear that they don't want to be treated like a domestic people. The policy choice the people made might brake up the UK as Scotland might seek a second referendum and then getting fast tracked on rejoining the EU. Remember, when the Scots had the referendum, it was promised that the UK would remain a member of the EU, which was one of the reasons the Scots voted to remain. With this changing the Scots might not wish to continue the partnership, just like Britain chose to end its partnership with the EU.

Because Britain will soon no longer be domestic, I see no reason to deal with a foreign country's goods or services especially with alternatives within the EU.