China plans double-digit boost in military spending

i'm pretty sure the MRBM does not reach mach24, ICBM might reach that speed. i think i saw the speed of DF21 somewhere, ill try to find it.

30/13=2.3km/s avg. bit low. there are other source on terminal velocity of ballistic missile, range from 7-mach17, mach17 is something like ICBM.

 

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...ahmos-2-hypersonic-ascm-laymans-analysis.html

there are other source indicate is somewhere around mach10, 5km/s is a more likely than 12km/s. i think mach 24 is for icbm re-entry, or shuttles. not for MRBM

this link has alot info, and graph on theory of operation on df21

 

i won't say its pipe dream since i doubt china will put a big headline on the news says about the missile test. if US military detect the missile test, they probably won't tell anybody either, which leave us in the blind. we've seen admiral, general, and pentagon said DF21 is in initial operation capabilities, so i think they know more about it than civilian.

 

Oh, we will know about the missile test within seconds. That is why we have satellites in orbit, to warn us of the launch of ballistic missiles. And also it is considered "common courtesy" to notify other nations that you are conducting such a test. This way the people that detect such tests know what is comming, and do not accidentially panic when the word of the launch happens.

Just look back at the last several years of such tests by North Korea. They would announce the test, the US would then follow it, and often times give word to the world press long before North Korea even made their own announcement.

And yes, the DF-21 is in operation, the DF-21C. It has been in operation for about a decade now. However, we are not discussing that, but the DF-21D.

And I am sorry, but you are mistaken. I am not a civilian. I am Active Duty in the Army myself, and my specialty is Missile Defense. So trust me, i keep very close watch on such developments.

 

http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/china_missile.pdf?_=1316466791

China brags about their systems all the time. Why is this so hard to understand.

I hear the same things over and over again. "Oh, we do not know what China is doing, they keep everything sooooo secret!"

Which is complete nonsense. If it was such a secret, they would not be talking about it all the time themselves. And talking about the satellites they need to launch in the next 5 years to make it work. And the upcomming over the horizon radar they are developing to also make it work.

People need to understand, the missile is simply a single part of a system. And the missile is just one part of the system. They have yet to actually test the missile against a randomly moving target. They do not have the satellites in place yet to make this work. They have yet to develop the radar that will be needed to make this work.

At this point in time, this is simply a paper tiger.

And once again, nobody is questioning the DF-21 itself. This is a real, functioning, and operational missile system. It is tested and proven. I do not question that, and neither does anybody else.

The topic is the DF-21D, a totally different, untested, and incomplete missile system that is still in development.

 

what more do you need against students and Buddhist monks?

 

depend on what kind of test you refer to? a test over the sea hitting a ship, i haven't heard it. test on land did occur a year ago. also regarding df21d, china might perfer low profile due to political reason, same with US. if a test really occur, and US detect/notify about it. US might not publish the info to media anyway. we never heard F117 till golf war. just show how little info we can get from public realm. j20 suprise us last year, we never think china was working on 5th gen jet. absence of evidence doesn't not mean it does not exist, espeically we don't have enough info compare to US intel. i guess we just have to wait and see.

 

How about a test trying to hit a moving target? How about a test to hit a randomly moving target?

All China did was test fire a DF-21D against a static land target. Big deal, we knew it has been able to hit fixed land targets for decades now. Nobody questions if the missile itself works, we doubt that it will work the way that China is already claiming it does.

And how did China "surprise us" with the J-20? It is nothing but the advancement of the J-XX program, which we have known about for a decade now. China themselves announced this way back in 2002.

Official Chinese press release, 10 December 2002:

The Shenyang Aircraft Company has been selected to head research and development of a new heavyweight fighter for China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), according to a senior source at the China Aviation Industry Corp I (AVIC I).

Development of the engines and weapon subsystems for the fourth-generation fighter has been underway for some time, according to the source, who revealed that a number of design concepts have already been created. Wind-tunnel tests of these are about to start. Images of the concepts show a twin-engine aircraft sharing some design traits with Lockheed Martin's stealthy F/A-22 multirole fighter, now undergoing tests with the US Air Force, such as the internal carriage of its weapon systems. The Chinese designs retain a more conventional wing, however, and use a single vertical tail fin.

AVIC I officials told JDW that the new aircraft - tentatively dubbed the J-X and possibly to receive the service designation J-13A - could use the WS10A turbofan engine designed by the Shenyang Liming Motor Company during its development and trials process.

In development for more than a decade, the WS10-series powerplant completed air trials earlier this year with an Su-27SK (NATO reporting name: 'Flanker-B') fighter. The WS10A is scheduled for introduction with the PLAAF's new J-10A fighter, which has yet to be formally unveiled.

Continuing research into advanced control techniques is expected to in time allow the air force to field WS10A-powered J-10A and J-X fighters equipped with thrust-vectoring nozzles offering improved aircraft manoeuvrability.

While AVIC I sources will not speculate when the new fighter might make its first test flight, a debut around the end of the decade could be expected if the project matches the development process for China's J-10A and J-8D projects.


http://web.archive.org/web/20071225...fence/air_forces/news/jdw/jdw021210_2_n.shtml

So maybe you should rephrase that from "j20 suprise us last year, we never think china was working on 5th gen jet" to "j20 suprise me last year, I never think china was working on 5th gen jet". Because it was no surprise to most of us in the military. The defense industry journals (like Jane's) had been talking about it for years.

And about the "super top secret F-117", that is complete nonsense. I think the biggest shock about the F-117 when it was finally announced (in November 1988, over 2 years before the Gulf War, so much for the surprise there) was that it was actually known as the F-117, and not the F-19.

I hate to tell you this, but the public and press had been talking about the "Stealth Fighter" since the late 1970's. I mean for goodness sakes, it was built in a hanger in Burbank, within sight of both the Burbank Airport and the I-5 freeway! In a 1983 movie with Chevy Chase, he stole an F-19 Stealth Fighter.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2daGIT3KHY"]Deal Of The Century - Trailer - YouTube[/ame]

In 1986, almost every model company had a model kit with what they thought the F-19 would look like. And Tom Clancy wrote about them in his books. There were even computer games based on it.

Oh no, no, no, no, no. This was no secret at all. Even GI Joe toys had an F-19 Stealth Fighter. You may be to young to remember, but everybody was talking about it for many years before it was actually "officially announced".

So continue to go on about "nobody knowing what China is doing". You claim you were surprised about the J-20 last year. While those of us that watch such things have known about that project for a decade. China first announced their "J-XX Stealth Fighter" a decade ago. And yet you claim you (and everybody else) did not know about it until last year? Only if they completely lived in a cave, and did not follow anything dealing with military hardware. China had been doing a serious PR blitz for years about this.

And if you look back when they first made the big announcements on this newest version 2-3 years ago in here, we were talking about it even then. Certainly nobody in this board was surprised "last year".

Sorry, but I forgot that the boards were reset and the older threads no longer available. But I am sure if you ask a lot of the other old timers in the military threads, they also remember this topic.

 

Uncle Ferd says, "Yea, we need to nip it - inna bud, nip it inna bud, nip it, nip it, nip it inna bud...

Retired military officers call for curbing China's power
Mar 19, 2012‎ - China's burgeoning military poses a significant security threat to Southeast Asia and beyond unless quickly counterbalanced by the U.S. and its allies, said several retired military officers Monday at a Washington symposium.

 

land test hitting a moving target was done sometime ago, i read some article about it. i think it was concrete block moving or something.

china NEVER announce Jxx, it was just rumor from internet. there whole bunch rumors about china military most are false. if you create 1000 rumor, eventually one will become true. goto sino military website, there are also rumor on new SSBN, new stealth, etc etc.

the DF21D was confirm by both chinese and US government. is it at deployment stage, no. does it chinese work on it, and US military belief its workable, yes. Its not something revolutinary like railgun/laser weapon etc. all the component to make it work are there, test it. its diffcult but not impossible.

all modern ballistic missile etc can have mid course correction, it has been done before. an active seeker MMW on DF21D, mach10 can be done, its not the 1st time seeker been put on hypersonic missiles.

the only diffculty is terminal guidance/accuracy and detect/ID/track CVBG in real time. only the former case are related to DF21D, the latter is combination of UAV, OH radar, Satelite, diesel sub etc etc.

my guess is china still has diffculties to make the DF21D accurate enough to hit a moving target. the accuracy has to be within few meters.

so the fact is US military said DF21D is in IOC, chinese general said the prototype is deployed and start testing etc. and yet you argue its impossible. do you know something that US/Chinese don't? of course there is a chance where china couldn't solve the issues or other reason and cancel the project. but i would not say its ridiculous they can't accomplish this task

 

Your taking your fantasy and chinese propaganda for reality....

 

*facepalm*

http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/fighter/jxx.asp

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1600141/posts

http://defensetech.org/2010/12/31/j-20-vs-f-35-one-analysts-perspective/

http://www.janes.com/products/janes/defence-security-report.aspx?ID=1065927860

http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,189937,00.html

I am sorry, this is not an "internet rumor". I suggest you reread the first paragraph of that press release again. Here, let me make it easier for you.

The Shenyang Aircraft Company has been selected to head research and development of a new heavyweight fighter for China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), according to a senior source at the China Aviation Industry Corp I (AVIC I).

And who built the airplane? Why, what a surprise. It was Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, a subsidiary of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC).

No, an "internet rumor" is when people claim that Bonsai Kitten is real. Or that A&F are releasing clothing with offensive descriptions. Or that sending a letter to Bill Gates will get you free money. Those are "rumors".

When something for the last 10 years has been this accurate over and over again, it is not a rumor. These are industry professionals, as well as the Chinese government releasing information for many years.

Why is this so hard to comprehend?

And I would love to see a reference to China hitting a moving concrete block. The only reports I have read claim that it has been tested once, and sank a moored ship.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/chines...sunk-carrier-killer-missle-df21-one-test.html

Once again, it hit a ship that was stationary in one place. That it did not have to find. That was not over the horizon from other Chinese assets.

This is not a test. We already know it can do that, no surprise. Now how about a real test?

Oh, and I do not doubt that the DF-21 series of missiles can sink ships. As long as they have nuclear warheads in the ballistics package.

 

yes all those site are NOT direct pla/government websites. thats why its call rumor. anyone with little knowledge about china knows almost all aircraft R&D/development occur at Shenyang. the fact is there aren't any official annoucement from chinese government on J20 till we saw it on youtube.

jane/sinodefence and other website also has article about new chinese ssbn, laser weapon, new 52D etc etc, but again its rumor, chinese government never disclose 52D etc. however i won't be surprised if 52D roll out in a few year. there is also rumor of stealth flanker too, maybe true, maybe not.

we are not talking about new revolutionary weapons. all the system needed for DF21D already exist, satelite, UAV, OH radar, MMW seeker, rocket motor, real time processing. if SM3 can hit a ICBM at mach20, is it possible for DF21D to hit a LARGE ship moving at 30knots. there are hypersonic missile that has accuracy of 1-3m, so put a good seeker in DF21D is not impossible. and as i said before we don't have information that US military have, so we dont know the status of DF21D. we do know chinese military said few DF21D was deployed and testing, US official said its in IOC. after 2007 anti-sat test, they certainly don't want a high profile test. US military certain don't want disclose everything about DF21D, other than said it reach IOC.

 

No, the support equipment does not exist. The Satellites do not exist yet. The over the horizon radar does not exist yet.

And the "hypersonic missile" is a totally different beast then a ballistic missile. You can't even compare the two.

 

OMG, china already has OHR, SARs, GPS, UAV, AWAC, Diesel sub etc. the support equipment for ballistic does exist.

yes, hypersonic missile is different than ballistic, but i was refer to similar g-force required to manuver the missile. if ballistic missile has decent mid course correction etc, the terminal manuver at 30km altitude toward carrier ship is possible. if you read my last link, it shows the potetial trajectory of the missile.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-horizon_radar#China
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaogan
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...0cCVBg&usg=AFQjCNHsWASCyJ8rywO0fYol9cu_RA-ckg

 

Yes, and so does the US. This has existed since the 1950's. Nothing new about that. However, it has largely been discarded because it is simply to "near sighted". Once you go beyong the horizon, things get very "fuzzy", and it becomes usefull only as a kind of "early warning" system. Types, exacy number, and location of the potential targets become impossible to accurately determine.

This is what I mean when talking about OTH "resolution". Remember, we are talking a ballistic missile. If your calculations are even 100 meters off, you missed the target. And OTH horizon is typically off my several miles.

This is a good description from Wikipedia actually:

The resolution of any radar depends on the width of the beam and the range to the target. For example a radar with a 1/2 degree beamwidth and a target at 120 km (75 mi) range will show the target as 1 km (0.62 mi) wide. Because of the long ranges at which OTH radars are used, the resolution is typically measured in tens of kilometres. This makes the backscatter system almost useless for target engagement, although this sort of accuracy is more than adequate for the early warning role. In order to achieve a beamwidth of 1/2 degree at HF, an antenna array several kilometres long is required.

Now look and understand what that is saying. OTH radar is not very accurate. It is good for saying "Look, there are some aircraft and ships heading for us!" However, it is not very accurate. This is why it was used in Early Warning systems. Accuracy there was not required, just warning that something was coming in.

Even conventional radar is often skewed. From my experience not 1 km, but I work with real time guided missiles, so I will take their word for it. But these are not aimed by anything but the missile itself. They do not actually take directions from the radar itself, but home in on the reflection of the beam reflected by the target. So it does not matter if the location by the radar is off, it is not taking directions from it. But this is very different technology from what the DF-21D uses. And OTH is off by tens of kilometers. With OTH, they would see exactly where the carrier is, it would not deviate from it's course, they would fire, and it would hit nothing but a bunch of fish miles away.

When trying to hit a target as small as a carrier, there is absolutely no way that weapon would do any damage at all to the carrier, unless it was carrying a nuke.

Yes, they have AWAC, nobody denies that either. And all of the other things you talk about. None of which has a single thing to do with the DF-21D (except maybe the GPS, which is not fully operational yet).

BeiDou (one of the 2 PRC GPS systems) is only in operation over China, and a few other areas in the Western Pacific. Only 4 birds were ever launched, and the program was scrapped before comming anywhere even close to "global". And the birds were never launched anwhere even close to their expectations (program started in 2000, Asia covered by 2012, global by 20202). However, this has been scrapped now, and is being replaced by BeiDou-2, also known as COMPASS. They claim to have all of the satellites launched this year for this system, and to be fully operational globally before the end of the year.

Yea, don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen. Remember this, and let's come back in December and talk about this again, shall we? I bet you dollars to doughnuts that this absolutely never happens. And remember, this is a critical part of this system so they claim.

Look, you have to learn to do some critical thinking, and look at things logically. You mention a slew of various and random technologies. Most of which they bought/stole from Russia and the US. And none of them really has a single thing to do with the DF-21D.

Guiding a ballistic missile is nothing like guiding a cruise missile (regardless if it is hypersonic or not). Having OTH radar is not the same thing as having OTH radar that can get the extreme resoultions that would be required from hundreds of miles away.

UAVs, submarines (and by the way, they have nuclear boats also, not just diesel), all these things are great. But what good are they for a DF-21D? Nothing, they have nothing to do with it.

Yea, I have heard speculations about this in the past. They use UAVs and subs and other aircraft to try and steer the warhead in. Only problem is that the surviveability of such a vessel is even shorter then that of the carrier. Such would require a bi-directional connection, and that is not instant to set up. The minute the locater vessel started to communicate, all hell on earth would open up on them. And they can either continue to broadcast (even if it could get through the storm of EMI that would open up within dozens of miles of the carrier) they will be shot down or sunk.

Sorry, but you how long have you had Sinophillia? Because you keep bringing these things up over and over and over again, without ever seeming to critically look at everything involved. You seem to embrace anything they bring up, no matter what reality is. You bring up their own claims (OTH radar, new satellites, etc) without actually researching what those bits of technology really are, or how they work.

Kinda reminds me of the .com boom. Invest in us, we are the wave of the future! Petfood.com, toys.com, groceries.com, PointCast.com, tons and tons of hype of the wave of the future.

And what happened to all of those also?

 

yes i know how OTH work. my work constanly put me with radar stuff. i was refer to combination of UAV, OTH, diesel sub, and SARS. the conflict between US and china will likely start at south china sea or taiwan. both case china knows the general area they need to search for during the conflict. we are not talking about search the entire pacific, just region of interest. for example if its south china sea, then US CVBG has to get near 1st/2nd island chain. chinese only has to send their UAV, AWAC, SAR image, OTH, SUB to find exact location of CVBG in that area, of course ID carrier might have some diffculties, but not impossible. once this is done, information can be send to ground control for the DF21D, and tracking can be done with combination of AWAC, UAV, and satelite.
DF21D can be lunched with initial position via internal GPS recevier, then update new position using GPS during mid course correction. there are only few mins window to destroy any device thats tracking the CVBG. IR terminal seeker will be almost impossible due to extreme heat/pressure cause by missile passing through atomsphere at mach10+. so likely a MMW seeker will be used, and may have secure datalink update during terminal phase as well.

again all the stuff i mention already exist in PLA inventory, and can be used to search, ID, track CVBG in south china sea. of course its easier if china know the general area to search for, but in the event of china-taiwan conflict, CVBG will be locate withing strike distance of taiwan coast. thus reduce the search grid significantly. Modern SAR can detect ships, and can map entire surface of the earth in a day or so.

heck thats how US and others done to find target of interest and destoryed.

and what technology are you refer to that is copy from russia? russia didn't provide any technology relate to satelite, UAV etc.

 

None of those would survived if they are in effective range. What? Do you think the "made in china" label is some sort of force field that protect them from ASW and AA system that the US possesses.

Again, you're taking your delusion as reality.

 

It is not as easy as you think.

Here, let me put it into real-world, maybe that will make it understandable.

You have a gigantic parking lot, that covers from the Mexican Border to Canada. And from the Pacific Coast all the way past the Rocky Mountains. That is even roughly the are that we are talking about.

Now this parking lot is largely flat, so vehicles are largely free to travel along it wherever they want.

Now on this gigantic parking lot, you have a large tractor-trailer truck. You know it is in this area, and it has a bunch of smaller trucks with it.

Now you have to find the truck. OK, you have RADAR, great. And Satellites, wonderful. You still have to find the truck. Oh, and that truck is constantly moving, between 15-40 mph.

And there are other trucks in the area also. Many of them on radar look to be just as large as the truck you are looking for (container ships {especially UCLV} have about the same radar cross-section as a US Carrier). But these all look the same on conventional radar, let alond OTH radar, which is much less accurate, and return much less information.

OK, now you have a bunch of moving trucks, maybe 20 of them give the return you want. How are you going to identify your truck? Well, you have to either send somebody out to find it, or use a satellite to spot it. But that is a really big parking lot, and the trucks are always moving.

Sending somebody out may work, but remember that this truck has a bunch of other smaller trucks that would love to shoot down your aircraft. And this truck can cand out it's own aircraft.

Well, you have the UAV. That's right.

The problem is that your UAV uses radio waves to communicate with you. And the truck and all it's assistant trucks have equipment to locate radio transmissions. They also have equipment that can block radio transmissions.

OK, let's just say you locate your truck anyways. You plot where he is, and where he is going to be when the missile hits (simple calculus). You launch your missile. But suddenly he speeds up and starts to make radical turns.

That's ok, you still have your subcompact car that has been hiding nearby tracking him. He starts to inform you of the new speed and direction of the truck, but since he is now broadcasting a radio signal also, he is now under attack. So he can either remain in place and be destroyed, or turn off the radio and try to hide in a parking lot full of other subcompacts.

And once again, the fact that all of these smaller trucks supporting the big truck have their own missiles that are designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles.

Starting to get even a small clue of how difficult this problem is? The "protection bubble" around your carrier during a time of histilities is normally over 100 miles. And they do not cruise along the shore, but way out to sea. That OTH radar would likely get no feedback. Or it would be lost among the background noise. And on this radar, about 2/3 of the cargo ships in the region would look just like a carrier. Not to mention the super tankers.

Remember, we are after all talking about one of the most highly transited shipping lanes in the world. Everything that goes to and from China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea goes through that area. That is a lot of shipping. Most of it on POSTPANAMAX, NEWPANAMAX and ULVC ships that on a radar would look just like a Nimitz class carrier.

Any UAV would be dead within minutes of turning on it's radio, the same with a sub. That is if it could cut through the intense amounts of interference from the ECM systems on the carrier and all the rest of the task force.

This would be like trying to watch for an incoming bomber by only watching radar screens from Chicago. And a Tu-160 does not appear significantly different then a 767 on a radar acreen. But here you would have a single Tu-160, surrounded by 40+ 767s and similar aircraft.

Now are you starting to get even an idea at how impossible this is?

You have GPS, great. This does not let it track anything though. The ship turns, speed up or speeds down, and that GPS coordinate is now simply another empty spot in a vast ocean.

And this still has nothing to do with the 6-10+ ships that are protecting the carrier that have missiles capable of shooting down an incoming ballistic missile.

 

And also take out his GPS satellite...

 

I largely ignore that, because there is nothing stopping the PRC from useing US GPS. And we are certainly not going to shoot down our own birds.

However, there is nothing from stopping the US from shooting down PRC communication satellites.

But even US GPS will not tell him where a carrier is, only where it was at a set time unless something is tracking it.

 

You are right. But GPS signal accuracy can be skewed. This is why we need to suplement it with "local" radio beacon for more precise coordinates. We do this where I work, for geographical survey while building hydro-electric installations.

 

i have the same arguement with some other forum member before about parking lot. i agree detect and ID the ships are 2 different thing, and i have the same arguement as you on the same stuff you mention here. but when i read some paper on SAR operation, satelite tracking etc and think through. its easy to detect ships, diffcult to ID it, but not impossible as i originally though would be. carrier operation usually include other ships in formation travel about same speed toward certain position cover a large area. so this is the 1st clue of battle group. 2nd for ID carrier it doesn't require real-time process, just long enough for other sensor to close in or satelite zoom in to ID the carrier. once SAR detect ships, it will send the target info AS POTENTIAL TARGETS. base on RCS, formation, and maybe other stuff, more satelite or UAV/AWAC can zoom in to the area and ID the ship, this is the hardest part, but its far from impossible. afterall carrier battle group are signficanlly different than an oil tanker, Electronic emmision, apperance, RCS etc etc. i'm pretty sure china study carrier wake, RCS etc using their satelite to reduce time needed when id the ship.

another diffculty is terminal guidance, but again its not impossible, certainlly is not on diffcult scale of railgun.

as for destroy satelite, US has to do preemptive strike, would US risk a war to destroy chinese satelite/awac/subs etc. its same with china, would they risk lunch df21d toward US carrier 1st.

for tracking, how far can a ship move in 5-10mins, not much. so for SAR/subs/UAV/Awac to cover the area from original position is not that diffcult. again the diffculty is ID carrier, detect/track is not diffcult using satelite or other platform. if china gather enough information on carrier apperance through its satelite, its wake, and other intel, then it will be easier to ID it, once detected.

if you think about it during taiwan conflict, US carrier has to be in striking distance for very long time, radius of few hundred-1000 km within taiwan coast. the longer it stay in that area, the likelyhood of detected by chinese sat, uav,sub,awac etc. china will certainlly try to find the carrier before it reach striking distance.

 

they don't need to be protected. once initial info is transmit to the ground. the purpose of UAV, AWAC is done. unless US do a pre-emptive strike otherwise it won't have enough time to destroy the satelite once missile is lunch nor does it serve any pupose.

 

These ships do not operate in a "formation" as you seem to be thinking.

The distance between them is miles or dozens of miles apart. And they are constantly changing position for various reasons (ASW ships run and sit, guided missile ships do turns to allow their radars to pick up more targets, etc). And the carrier group would not just park itself off of Taiwan. They would sit on the far side of the island, so the OTH radar would do no good at all. There would be this big island between it and the system.

And yea, China has AWACS. It is based off of the Il-76. This crate is about as stealthy as a skyscraper. And it would get nowhere near the carrier, that is the most protected airspace in the world.

And how far can you move in 5-10 minutes, not much?

Are you kidding?

We are talking about an incomming ballistic missile. Remember what I said about the truck? This missile is comming straight down on top of the target.

Now how far can you move a truck in 5-10 minutes? Trust me, more then far enough so that the missile will hit nothing but empty water. Because unless it comes right down on top of it, it is a miss. This is not a cruise missile, where exact location is not important. If the exact location is not known down to about 100 meters the missile hits nothing.