To quote a famous movie that shall not be named, "Yeah, well, there won't be a victory! Every day, your war machines lose ground to a bunch of poorly-armed, poorly-equipped freedom fighters! The fact is that you underestimated your competition. If you'd studied your history, you'd know that these people have never given up to anyone. They'd rather die, than be slaves to an invading army. You can't defeat a people like that. We tried! We already had our Vietnam! Now you're gonna have yours!” Although not an entirely accurate comparison between Ukraine's situation with Russia and the Mujahadeen Rebels of Afghanistan with the USSR, the point of the quote is that Russia underestimated Ukraine's military forces and people just as they did with the Afghanistan people, as well as you BTW, and Russia is now paying the price militarily. Remember, For Russia's perspective, this was supposed to be over in a few days and nobody could do anything about it. Both Sun Tzu and Clausewitz stated the biggest mistake of any military is to underestimate the opposing enemy's strength and determination, AND the longer the war drags on, the better chance the opposing military forces have a chance to defeat an invading army.
Eh, I think the Crimea situation is more complicated than you care to know about. It was part of Russia until the 1950's when the Soviet Union transferred it to Ukraine since, at that time, no one in the USSR (or the US for that matter) imagined there would be a time when there would be no Soviet Union. And of course the majority of the people who live in Crimea are Russian. I realize that means nothing to most Westerners, who pretend that ethnicity and language don't matter, The fact that there are large groups of Russians living outside Russia proper is one of the (the other being simply national security) reasons that Putin and Russians in general, consider what happens with Russian enclave communities their business. They regard it in the same way (actually more) we regard the Monroe doctrine. The short of it is that Crimea isn't going back to Ukraine unless Russia is defeated militarily, and the nukes will be flying before then, so none of us will ever know or care if Russia regains Crimea.
I readily admit to being surprised by the Ukrainian's tenacity, but with all due apologies to Rambo III, the Ukrainians are not the mujahedeen. Maybe there are bombings and terrorism being committed by ordinary folks within the Russian occupied areas; I don't know because the news coverage is crap, but I somehow doubt there is anything that is going to go to Taliban levels. The Nazi's were almost at Moscow too.
1: All the Ukrainians have to let the Russians keep committing war crimes 2: Ukraine would have its sovereignty dictated to it by the Russians, on the understanding that THIS TIME the security guarantees will ACTUALLY be honored. Just like when they gave up their nukes and we TOTALLY fended off the Ruskies when they invaded them in 2014..... o wait..... and now in 22 we've sent troops ...... o wait.. 3: Make russia's landgrabs legal. Yeah sure sparky. 4: Stop ****ing Russia to death and give them what they want. Leave it to the Italians to switch sides.
If we are going to play that game, then it really should belong to China, aka Mongols, when it conquered the region prior to being conquered by the Russian Empire under Catherine the Great. It was also, briefly, an independent republic during the Russian Civil War as the Crimean People's Republic. Once Stalin took control and formed the Soviet Union, it was the first country absorbed into the USSR. In the 1950s, Kruschev gave Ukraine to the Ukrainian people and formed the Ukraine SSR as part of the Soviet Union. When the Berlin Wall fell down and the USSR dissolved, the people overwhelmingly choose independence as well as all the other Soviet republics of the USSR. As a result, you are now given the Russian Federation grounds to reabsorb any independent country that was once part of the Soviet Union. And that cannot happen no matter what you think. Because it has been part of Ukraine and Ukrainian territory since 1992, Russia seized the territory in 2014 illegally, and thus that behavior and the complex history of Ukraine will set a dangerous precedent that can have repercussions to Israel, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc. Or is it only to countries you agree with politically, like Russia for instance? The Russian population there has been there for ages. Furthermore, if Ukraine is truly to be, the Russian population can still live there and in other parts of Ukraine. And Russian population can still retain their heritage and have dual citizenship, yet still live there with Ukraine as its form of government. Ukraine will need to provide amnesty, offer an oath of affirmation, AND provide certain options if they refuse. Furthermore, the Ukrainian nationals would have to accept them in their nation without reservation.
As I said, It was not an accurate comparison, but the point is that in both instances, Russia underestimated its opposition in Ukraine and Afghanistan. I just used the quote for a more dramatic effect only. And yes, they were almost there. But Hitler ordered Army Group South from their destination in the Caucus Region to the city of Stalingrad. That was his biggest mistake and thus doomed the taking of Moscow as well. He also underestimated the weather and and believed that Stalin was a strategic idiot despite both trying to outdo each other in striking first.
OK I see that you should be chief negotiator in peace talks since the administration policy is to continue the war. Continue it shall.
So if I follow your analogy, you seem to believe that only major miscalculation by the Ukrainian military could stop the inevitable push of the Russians back to their borders? OK but I don't think that's going to happen but it does explain your previous lack of interest in real peace talks. You don't want that because you think the Ukrainians will when this war anyway. You may be right about that but that's not the way to bet.
I'm afraid Russia is not interested in any plan other than their own plan. If international support is stopped, it will give Russia zero interest to negotiate, because they can just take everything they want by force.
Ukraine has been pushing back on Russia to the effect where Russia gave up on trying to take the capital. To me it doesn't look like Russia is even close to winning.
The Biden Administration is simply supporting Ukraine militarily and probably had a hand in the proposed peace deal being offered by Italy. When it comes to peace talks, a lot of it is done through back door channels. This was apparent and verified during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Camp David Accords with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US, and so forth. Today, the US foreign policy, since Eisenhower, has been a soft approach diplomatically. That changed with Trump who was more of a hard nose, which really does not fit well in today's foreign diplomacy. And for the record, I prefer the "ping pong" diplomacy method rather than the threat method, no matter who the country is. Russia started this war. If you are under the mistaken impression it was Ukraine or the US or NATO, you definitely are listening to the wrong people who pretty much don't know anything. Hence, Russia can stop this war anytime they want to, except that is not what Putin's really wants, now does he?
To support that, we have the word of a PROVEN liar like Putin, who said he was not planning to invade Ukraine and then... But that's just one example. Anybody believing Russia after so many lies about... everything.... cannot be taken too seriously. Why a permanent member of the UN Security Council would decide to invade a country instead of bringing evidence to the floor about this supposed "genocide" is beyond me. Only explanation I can find is that they're making it up. But it looks to me like Ukraine is winning the war. So I don't see them signing any sort of agreement in which they make major concessions. If they kick Russia out, maybe they could go on and take back Crimea.
I don't think you have been paying attention in the last week or so. Russia has not pushed into Ukrainian territory, including its reorganization and resupply of its troops, especially in the South. They tried or attempted to consolidate and their only advantage at this point is the hyper missiles and artillery that is shelling everything. But for ground troops, still do not completely control any major city since the invasion, including Mariupol, and Ukraine has retaken territory lost in the north and central areas. Now, Belarus is joining the fight under Russia, but that won't matter either. They will not commit the full level of troops, maybe half. The other half has to keep the population in check, among other things. I don't think they have called up the reserves to this day, maybe some, but not the full reserve force. That will take personnel away from the economy. Thus, only four active brigades, with 24 T-72B3 and the remaining tanks 7-72Bs. They are trained under Soviet/Russian Federation battlefield tactics, which is not conducive to urban warfare, as demonstrated by the Russian military when they attempt to take a city. We are giving Ukraine anti-tanks, suicide drones, and other military equipment to deal with the armored units. We are sharing our intelligence data with Ukrainian military on a selected basis to help Ukraine defeat Russian forces or advise them of an upcoming attack. We are probably, using satellite imagery, showing Ukraine military leaders, exactly how much Belarussian military will be committed as Russia's ally and probable paths into Kyiv.
It's beyond you because you're uninformed. The evidence was brought forward. You still rely on the fake news MSM. Ukraine is losing 5-600 men per day. They are getting the literal **** kicked out of them. Once again, you rely on fake news.
Is that a general rule that you oppose all negotiated settlements? One side must totally dominate and destroy the other side?
Ukraine has already pushed Russia out of the areas from the beginning of this campaign. Can they extend that to the Donbas and Crimea areas, it certainly seems possible now, albeit probably much more difficult.
No conversation on this war is going to make much headway if you are assuming I think that Ukraine and NATO started the war. I would like to think that the US had a hand in the Italian initiative but you've already implied you oppose many of the proposals anyway.
So I was right. You think the Ukrainians are winning the war. OK well that explains why you seem to oppose the peace talks. From the Ukrainian point of view, if they are on the offensive and think they are going to win, they wouldn't want to talk. I'm not sure the Ukrainians actually feel that way but a lot of Americans seem to.
As bad or good any proposal may be, the first step is to re-open talks. Unfortunately, neither side is weary of the war yet. Pootin still thinks he can win, or at least improve his position so that if negotiations become "necessary" , he can deal from a position of strength. The Ukraine, despite the destruction and deaths, still wants to inflict more damage on the Russians. Inflicting disproportionate amounts of damage only strengthens their position. As long as the EU and the USA keep feeding them weapons and assistance, they will keep chipping away at both Russian troops and taking back territory. Time is on their side as economic sanctions start to damage Russia and the military situation grinds to a stalemate.
Its giving them room to breathe. They said they would negotiate, but as long as Russia thinks they can crush them, they have no interest in giving up an inch. If Ukrainians lose the fight on the ground, it won't be a negotiation, they will have to surrender unconditionally, which probably means giving up the whole country.
Well I've not heard anything yet from either Russia or Ukraine on the Italian proposals, but I guess we will be able to tell who thinks who is winning based on their responses.
