Mass gains of Antarctic ice greater than losses.

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by DennisTate, May 12, 2019.

?

Has the addition of H2O to parts of Antarctica saved us so far from rising ocean levels?

  1. No

    3 vote(s)
    75.0%
  2. Yes

    1 vote(s)
    25.0%
  3. Possibly.... I will research this further???

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. DennisTate

    DennisTate Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2012
    Messages:
    31,956
    Likes Received:
    2,657
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    This is an extremely important video that verifies what I have been hammering away on this keyboard for a decade now about.

    The addition of H2O to the central region of Antarctica is comparable to the amount of ice melting off the world's glaciers and the land based Greenland Ice Pack....... so far!





    Global Warming & Climate Change "10 Year Challenge": Is It True Or Not? #10YearChallenge

    128,805 views
     
  2. DennisTate

    DennisTate Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2012
    Messages:
    31,956
    Likes Received:
    2,657
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male





    How much longer will central Antarctica save our coastal communities?

     
  3. DennisTate

    DennisTate Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2012
    Messages:
    31,956
    Likes Received:
    2,657
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    We Canadians have major incentive to be somewhat more concerned about the warming in the ARctic than people in other nations due to the very real possibility that the real estate along the Bay of Fundy may be in the position of the proverbial canary in the coal mine..... that dies before the miners pass out.

    The multiplier effect of the geography of the Bay of Fundy will probably cause rising ocean levels to be noticed there first.... before they are noticed elsewhere where the multiplier effect of the geography on tides is much less extreme.

    Anchorage Alaska has the second highest / most extreme tides in North America.

    Is methane being released from the Arctic permafrost?

    If so... will this likely cause large scale cracking and slicing of ice off the land based Greenland Ice Pack within a number of years or decades..... as opposed to centuries as some scientists had assumed?

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2017
    Messages:
    1,814
    Likes Received:
    1,564
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Warming in the arctic is mostly in the cold part of the year.

    Despite being warmer than usual, it is still well below freezing, January 2021.
    [​IMG]

    LINK

    ======

    This is for year 2020:

    [​IMG]


    Year 2019:

    [​IMG]

    Don't let them mislead you with ANAMOLY maps of the Arctic region.
     
    DennisTate and Jack Hays like this.
  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
  6. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Decadal Antarctic snowfall changes dominated by individual storms, not by large-scale circulation change. [link]
     
    DennisTate likes this.
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Seals, Mammoths, Horses, Waterfowl…All Tell Us Claims Of Exceptional Modern Warmth Are Bull Hockey
    By Kenneth Richard on 11. February 2021

    Share this...
    The survivable temperature thresholds for terrestrial animals in both hemispheres affirm recent millennia were much warmer with less sea ice than today.
    Antarctica hasn’t warmed in the last 70 years (Singh et al., 2020). The Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica has been cooling and sea ice has been expanding since 1979 (Fan et al., 2014; Qian et al., 2019; Zhou et al., 2019).

    Elephant seals can only breed in sea ice-free waters. About 1,000 years ago (i.e., the Medieval Warm Period) Antarctica was warm enough (“substantially warmer than present”) and the Southern Ocean waters were ice-free enough that elephant seals could breed in the Ross Sea, or near the coast of south-central Antarctica’s Victoria Land. Today this region is so much colder and the sea ice so thick that elephant seals must travel 2,400 kilometers north of where they used to breed 1,000 years ago just to find sea ice-free waters (Koch et al., 2019; Hall et al., 2006). . . .
     
    DennisTate likes this.
  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    The facts about Antarctica refuse to conform to climate alarmists' script.

    The Frozen Wastes of the Warmist Mind
    Posted on 16 Feb 21 by TONY THOMAS3 Comments


    16th February 2021 Heard the Antarctic is melting, especially from a feminist perspective? Of course you have, just as I was once again reminded by the tour guides’ commentary on a recent joy flight over the still frozen continent. Lovely trip, incredible scenery, and all washed down with lashings of pseudo-scientific bilge. On New Year’s … Continue reading →
     
    DennisTate likes this.
  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Antarctica Has Been COOLING Over The Past Quarter Century, NASA’s Surface Station Data Show
    By P Gosselin on 26. February 2021

    Share this...
    NASA mean annual temperature data going back a quarter century show no warming over Antarctica
    By Kirye
    and Pierre Gosselin

    Where’s the warming and ice melt? Today we revisit 13 critical stations located on and around the Antarctic Peninsula.

    They are important because alarmists like to tell and scare us that the ice mass on the Antarctic Peninsula is threatening to melt down – which would cause sea level to rise up to six meters globally- think of your suffering children and grandchildren.

    To examine the trends at these crucial stations, we plot the data from NASA going back to 1996, i.e. a quarter century. The following map shows their respective station locations: . . .
     
    DennisTate and bringiton like this.
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    This is an extraordinarily comprehensive review of the data.

    CO2 sensitivity: the polar solution
    Charles Rotter
    If our planet had been designed with comparative high-latitude studies in mind, it couldn’t have been better arranged than it is.
     
  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    NASA Surface Station Data Show East Antarctica NOT WARMING Past 4 Decades…Cooling Trend
    By P Gosselin on 7. March 2021

    Share this...
    By Kirye
    and Pierre

    Today we update 12 stations located at the eastern side of Antarctica, where surface temperatures are colder than those located near the peninsula:

    [​IMG]

    Chart: NASA-GISS.

    Below the NASA data from the 12 stations are plotted going back almost 4 decades, to 1983. The first chart has 4 of the stations, and the second depicts the remaining 8 stations: . . .
     
    DennisTate likes this.
  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Antarctic Sea Ice Grows 2 Million Sq. Km – Area As Big As Saudi Arabia. And: Hamburg Spring Arriving Later…
    By P Gosselin on 28. March 2021

    Share this...
    Antarctic sea ice grows 2 million square kilometers in 4 years…

    It’s hard to back up the statement: Global warming is global. Some places have seen warming over the past 40 years (e.g. Arctic), but other places have not.

    Antarctica definitely has not been playing along with the man-made global warming hoax. (Yes, man has caused some of the warming, but not all – and it certainly isn’t catastrophic). . . .
     
  13. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    DennisTate likes this.
  14. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    6,524
    Likes Received:
    2,248
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Meanwhile, the more recent data.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL087291
    ---
    In Antarctica, ongoing high mass losses in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica cumulate to 2130, 560, and 370 Gt, respectively, since 2002. A cumulative mass gain of 980 Gt in Queen Maud Land since 2009, however, led to a pause in the acceleration in mass loss from Antarctica after 2016.
    ---

    Antarctica is losing mucho mass. This isn't a debate.
     
  15. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Please see the link in #12.

    ". . . On March 26, 2017, Antarctic sea ice measured 3.055 million sq km. Four years later, sea ice reached 5.103 million sq km. That’s a difference of more than 2 million sq. km., which is an area the size of Saudi Arabia! . . . "
     
  16. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2020
    Messages:
    11,142
    Likes Received:
    11,543
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Exactly. Some people don't understand the difference between changes in landmass ice and sea ice.
     
  17. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You mean like this?
    Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry
    Jay Zally has published a new paper in the Journal of Glaciology.
    Abstract
    GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g cm−3. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm a−1 subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt a−1, inland WA is −3.5 mm a−1 at 66 Gt a−1, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm a−1 at −95 Gt a−1. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt a−1, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt a−1 during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt a−1 from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12

    ± 64 Gt a−1 by 2012–16.

    Zwally, H., Robbins, J., Luthcke, S., Loomis, B., & Rémy, F. (2021). Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: Reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry. Journal of Glaciology, 1-27. doi:10.1017/jog.2021.8

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.8
     
    Sunsettommy likes this.
  18. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    6,524
    Likes Received:
    2,248
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Zwally is one guy, and his work is generally regarded as being incorrect.
     
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    That's not much of an answer, and don't forget the four co-authors.
     
    DennisTate likes this.
  20. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2017
    Messages:
    1,814
    Likes Received:
    1,564
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    That was all you can type up?

    Now nearing three says later you remain stuck at nothing........

    :coffeemachine:
     
  21. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2018
    Messages:
    682
    Likes Received:
    447
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    “The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away,” Zwally said. “But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for.”

    I couldn't stand listening to your You Tube video, so I quit listening after about 1.5 minutes. If Zwally's results are accurate, 0.23 millimeters + 0.27 millimeters = 0.50 millimeters per year of reduced sea
    level rise between now and the year 2100, assuming constant rates would amount to 40 millimeters less of sea level rise. That is 4 cm or 1.6 inches of reduced sea level. About 1 to 2 feet of sea
    level rise had been projected. That doesn't change the year 2100 projections by much. We will see what the IPCC has to say when they produce their report in April of 2022.



    Another study disagrees with those results and finds that Antarctica mass loss has been accelerating. https://www.pnas.org/content/116/4/1095

    Antarctica.
    The total mass loss from Antarctica increased from 40 ± 9 Gt/y in the 11-y time period 1979–1990 to 50 ± 14 Gt/y in 1989–2000, 166 ± 18 Gt/y in 1999–2009, and 252 ± 26 Gt/y in 2009–2017, that is, by a factor 6

    "Recent observations have shown that the ice sheet is losing mass along the periphery due the enhanced flow of its glaciers, at a rate that has been increasing over time, while there is no long-term trend change in snowfall accumulation in the interior [i.e., Antarctica contributes to sea-level rise (SLR) principally via changes in ice dynamics] (57). Various techniques have been used to estimate ice sheet mass balance, including (i) the component method, which compares accumulation of snowfall over the interior basins with ice discharge by glaciers across the grounding line (where ice becomes afloat in ocean waters and detaches from the bed) at a high resolution (100 m to 1 km); (ii) the altimetry method, which measures elevation changes over the entire ice sheet and converts them into mass changes by assuming a density of change at intermediate resolution (1 to 10 km); and (iii) the gravity method, which measures directly the relative change in mass on a monthly basis, within centimeters per year, albeit at low resolution (333 km). The techniques have been compared (810) to yield reconciled numbers for ice-sheet-wide assessments for the time periods 1992–2011 and 1992–2017, except for East Antarctica, where uncertainties remain."



    An article at realclimate.org discusses this issue and says that measuring changes in mass are very difficult and subject to errors. It doesn't debunk Zwally's results, it just raises many
    questions about his methods and how they could lead to inaccurate results. The study results that I presented that challenge Zeally's results use 3 independent methods to establish
    reliability of data. They are discussed below.

    "Various techniques have been used to estimate ice sheet mass balance, including (i) the component method, which compares accumulation of snowfall over the interior basins with ice discharge by glaciers across the grounding line (where ice becomes afloat in ocean waters and detaches from the bed) at a high resolution (100 m to 1 km); (ii) the altimetry method, which measures elevation changes over the entire ice sheet and converts them into mass changes by assuming a density of change at intermediate resolution (1 to 10 km); and (iii) the gravity method, which measures directly the relative change in mass on a monthly basis, within centimeters per year, albeit at low resolution (333 km). The techniques have been compared (810) to yield reconciled numbers for ice-sheet-wide assessments for the time periods 1992–2011 and 1992–2017, except for East Antarctica, where uncertainties remain."
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2021
  22. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    James California likes this.
  23. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    6,524
    Likes Received:
    2,248
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    It was correct. Almost all the science says Antractic ice mass is dropping. You ignored it all, didn't even acknowledge that it existed, and cherrypicked the one study that agrees with you.

    So, let's see what the model-free hard data says.

    https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/31/antarctic-ice-loss-2002-2020/
    ---
    Research based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites (2002-2017) and GRACE Follow-On (since 2018 - ) indicates that between 2002 and 2020, Antarctica shed approximately 150 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.4 millimeters per year.
    ---

    And let's discuss Zwally.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-to-believe-in-antarctica-rsquo-s-great-ice-debate/
    ---
    There is no doubt that the 2015 study, led by Jay Zwally, a glaciologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, flew in the face of previous research and even assertions made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Zwally's study remains the only one to firmly conclude that Antarctica is growing.
    ...
    Although many agree East Antarctica is rising, Scambos and Shuman think the rate is much lower—and that the discrepancy arose from Zwally's technique. The satellites in his study fire lasers toward Earth. The beams reflect back at the satellite, allowing scientists to calculate the surface ice's height. But this technique is not perfect, and the beams require careful calibration using a flat, unchanging “reference surface.” For this, most scientists use well-understood regions on the ice sheet itself. But Zwally and his team used stretches of the Southern Ocean that are exposed between cracks in the ice, and Scambos worries that these pools are not as still as they seem. He argues that such surfaces can easily form a new layer of ice or even frost flowers—rare (and gorgeous) ice crystals that grow upward from the sea. This would make the reference surface move, an effect that could interfere with the data.

    Even if other scientists could accept Zwally's measurements of ice sheet inflation, they would quickly run into what many would see as a second hiccup in his study. To translate the change in height (and therefore volume) into a change in mass, scientists must assume a certain density. The question is: Just what is rising? Is it snow or ice? Zwally contends it is ice, and argues that at the end of the last ice age, roughly 10,000 years ago, the amount of snowfall doubled. This would mean that it has been compacting into solid ice for millennia and continues to do so today. Most other scientists, however, do not agree that this is still going on now and argue that any increase in the ice sheet's height is from added snowfall alone. In this case, the density of snow would be the right number to use. The difference is critical: a rise of one centimeter of snow across all of East Antarctica is the equivalent of 35 billion metric tons, but a rise of one centimeter of ice is the equivalent of 92 billion metric tons.
    ---
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
    Melb_muser likes this.
  24. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    29,190
    Likes Received:
    18,683
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Sunsettommy likes this.
  25. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2017
    Messages:
    1,814
    Likes Received:
    1,564
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier
    Download PDF
    Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier
    Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 2431 (2018) Cite this article
    Abstract
    Tectonic landforms reveal that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) lies atop a major volcanic rift system. However, identifying subglacial volcanism is challenging. Here we show geochemical evidence of a volcanic heat source upstream of the fast-melting Pine Island Ice Shelf, documented by seawater helium isotope ratios at the front of the Ice Shelf cavity. The localization of mantle helium to glacial meltwater reveals that volcanic heat induces melt beneath the grounded glacier and feeds the subglacial hydrological network crossing the grounding line. The observed transport of mantle helium out of the Ice Shelf cavity indicates that volcanic heat is supplied to the grounded glacier at a rate of ~ 2500 ± 1700 MW, which is ca. half as large as the active Grimsvötn volcano on Iceland. Our finding of a substantial volcanic heat source beneath a major WAIS glacier highlights the need to understand subglacial volcanism, its hydrologic interaction with the marine margins, and its potential role in the future stability of the WAIS.


     
    Jack Hays likes this.

Share This Page