New Covid-19 Research has Stunning Findings!

LangleyMan · Aug 1, 2020

Eleuthera said: ↑

UV light still kills the virus, it was engineered for gain of function. My guess is one of the functions maximized was its transmissibility, which is very high it seems.
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FAKE NEWS ALERT!

Eleuthera · Aug 1, 2020

LangleyMan said: ↑

FAKE NEWS ALERT!
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Can't you make the font any larger?

557 · Aug 1, 2020

truth and justice said: ↑

I presume you know that the northern hemisphere is in peak summer and the virus is out of control in many of the hottest places on Earth? Does seasonal flu cause 1000 deaths per day in August in the US? Does seasonal flu give rise to 75000 cases per day in August in US. Same questions for Brazil, Iran, Iraq, México, India.......
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So you have nothing on sunlight as you claimed. Or can you show how sunlight is directly responsible for causing increased infection rates in the areas mentioned?

I posted this the 14th of June.

557 said: ↑

People should use a bit of logic when considering the “heat theory”. It is a fact heat has a profound effect on the virus. But if you are shut up in a poorly ventilated climate controlled building with other people it isn’t going to matter that it’s 95F outside, is it? I’m pretty sure the low infection rates we see in places like Hawaii for instance are partly a result of weather. Much of the population of Hawaii lives in well ventilated structures and don’t use AC a lot. In theory this would have a profound effect on infection rates. In places like Southern California, I would expect summer heat to cause rates to rise as AC use increases.

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out in the end.
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Hmmm, it’s shaking out all right...

I will add that in countries like Mexico and other second world countries you mention, mini split AC units are very common because of ease of installation in existing structures and energy efficiency ratings. These units are praised for their ability to keep inside air in and outside air out. Sounds good in an area with a highly polluted outdoor environment, right? But imagine the effect of virtually no ventilation on infection rates of people hiding from the heat in such an environment. Sometimes it’s good to apply science and logic to things instead of just repeating what media feeds you.

LangleyMan · Aug 1, 2020

CenterField said: ↑

That would mean 2.32% (half of the 4.63% we calculated before) of the US population getting some sort of lingering heart problem. Again, this is VERY far from the alarmist OP's source implying 75% of everybody... but in terms of public health and economic impact, this number is indeed huge. Just think of it: 2.32% of 331,000,000 Americans is 7,679,200 people!!!

In terms of economic burden of treating these people, lost productivity, and shortened life span, this is HUGE!!!
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Huge, indeed, and there is involvement of other organs. Prudence suggests we try to limit infections until we can develop a vaccine or effective treatments.

CenterField said: ↑

That doesn't mean lockdowns... but just, sensible and common-sense precautions such as avoiding close proximity to others whenever possible, washing hands or hand-sanitizing after touching high-traffic surfaces, avoiding gatherings with more than 5 or 10 people, avoiding concerts, bars and restaurants and other closed spaces with a lot of people, and, more controversial, wearing face masks.
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I think what British Columbia (5m people, 3/4 in urban areas) has done is instructive because they're on this continent and share our North American culture. They never issued a stay-at-home order, never mandated masks, and have emphasized what you call "common-sense precautions." They also push down hard on their R0 with testing and effective contact tracing.

Their deaths are mostly seniors in skilled nursing facilities. New infections as you might expect are mostly Millennials.

LangleyMan · Aug 1, 2020

Eleuthera said: ↑

Can't you make the font any larger?
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Can you make the claims any more absurd?

MrTLegal · Aug 1, 2020

mitchscove said: ↑

Try to contain your excitement.
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Do me a favor.

NEVER imply that I am excited about dead Americans. I am trying to save American lives by making sure that people do not intentionally downplay the threat of this virus.

MrTLegal · Aug 1, 2020

mitchscove said: ↑

So corrupt even corruptocrats can't keep up

Fatal Motorcycle Crash Listed as COVID-19 Death in Florida

By Matt Margolis Jul 17, 2020
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You should know that mistakes are going to be made and that particular mistake has already been corrected because the individual is no longer counted as a Covid-19 death.

MrTLegal · Aug 1, 2020

mitchscove said: ↑

Perhaps COVID-19 isn't "WOKE", contrary to what we've been told by blue state mayors who encourage terrorists to riot, cough and spit on eachother.
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Alright, yea...that's three posts in a row. Get ignored.

Richard The Last · Aug 1, 2020

Antiduopolist said: ↑

I don't want to deny you the journey to self-enlightenment, undertaken when you're ready.
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So I will take that as "No".

Richard The Last · Aug 1, 2020

Antiduopolist said: ↑

Not at all - it's simply a waste of time,...
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Unlike continued posting of nonsense or facts without links; those are never a waste of time. Seems if you really had a valid point you would make it and if you had valid facts you would provide links to your source.

SiNNiK · Aug 1, 2020

MrTLegal said: ↑

Covid-19 killed more than 1000 Americans yesterday.
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I call BS.

Antiduopolist · Aug 1, 2020

CenterField said: ↑

Thanks. OK, this said, even though I still think that the uncertainty regarding how many people have had the infection (like I said, might be 10 times more than the diagnosed cases which would push all these indexes down), to my UTTER surprise, it seems like this might not entirely be clueless and biased journalistic fearmongering but may be indeed happening to a concerning degree (although much smaller degree as I'll demonstrate). I receive a trade newsletter called MDedge and look at what I found in my email box this morning:

https://www.mdedge.com/cardiology/article/226328/heart-failure/heart-damage-even-after-covid-19-recovery-evokes-specter?ecd=wnl_evn_200731_mdedge_8pm&uac=350649AJ&utm_source=News_MDedge_eNL_073120_F&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Heart damage after COVID-19 ‘recovery’ evokes fear of later HF

"Heart damage even after COVID-19 "recovery" evokes spectrum of later HF"

HF stands for heart failure.

It's still not 3 in 4 of all patients with COVID-19 given the possibility that we are missing 9 out of 10 cases. But let's play with these numbers, even though we understand that there is significant uncertainty, and I don't want to be understood as an alarmist fearmonger, but for the sake of the argument, let's see what this would give us in population terms. This is of course only the worst possible scenario, and certainly there are best possible scenarios too (which I'll explore next), but for the sake of the argument, let's see how bad this might be if we get to the worst case scenario.

The study found 2/3 of aymptomatic and mildly to moderately symptomatic patients who recovered at home, showing lingering heart issues in 78% of them. Typically these are 80% of the confirmed cases, so 66% of 80% is 52.8%. Therefore, 78% of these, gets us to 41.2% of all confirmed cases. Then we have to add to these, the 1/3 of severe, hospitalized patients. Given that these are typically 20% of confirmed cases, that would give us 33% of 20% which is 6.6%, and when we apply the 78% to these, we have 5.1% of all confirmed cases. So now we have 41.2% + 5.1% which gives us 46.3% of all confirmed cases.

Now let's divide this by 10, to account for the possibility that we are missing 9 out of 10 asymptomatic cases, and let's hope that these are so incredibly mild that they don't have the same problem (which is an optimistic assumption, but again, let's not be alarmist).

So, we'd have 4.63% of all people with COVID-19 having some sort of lingering heart problems.

OK, this is not as bad as what the OP implied that 3 out of every 4 patients with COVID-19, diagnosed or not, will run into heart problems (75%). It would be reassuring to each individual person, that the odds of running into heart problems after COVID-19 would still be as low as 1 in 20.

But see, where this is concerning, is when we apply it to the US population as a whole.

Let's suppose again the worst case scenario that, say, this virus will ultimately get to 50% of the US population. That's not far-fetched because coronaviruses are notoriously infectious, and more so than the flu. Coronaviruses responsible for the common cold can get to most people in a population. Think of the fact that the average American catches the common cold 5 times per year. Sure, only 20% of the common colds are from coronaviruses, but that would still mean that that most average Americans would catch a coronavirus common cold once a year.

It's also not fair to estimate above that number, because if 50% of the population catches it, it might result in the contagion coming to a stop due to herd immunity. You calculate herd immunity as the reverse of the R0 number, that is, the reproduction number of the virus (it's 1 minus 1 divided by R0), which is estimated for this coronavirus to be, best case scenario, around 2.0, which gives us a Herd Immunity Threshold of 0.5 or 50% of the population getting to be immune to the virus, would stop the contagion. The worst case scenario is that the R0 has been estimated as high as 5.7 which would require 82.5% of the population catching it to result in herd immunity, but I don't want to go there, lest my numbers will start approaching catastrophic case scenarios and I think it's not appropriate.

So, let's get again the worst case scenario, that of not having a vaccine in time to cut down on this 50% number, or a vaccine not being effective enough. So let's keep the 50% of the population catching this thing.

That would mean 2.32% (half of the 4.63% we calculated before) of the US population getting some sort of lingering heart problem. Again, this is VERY far from the alarmist OP's source implying 75% of everybody... but in terms of public health and economic impact, this number is indeed huge. Just think of it: 2.32% of 331,000,000 Americans is 7,679,200 people!!!

In terms of economic burden of treating these people, lost productivity, and shortened life span, this is HUGE!!!

Now, let's step back a little... like I said, this is the worst case scenario. There are much better case scenarios. For one thing, maybe this lingering cardiac problems are only "lingering" because we are only 5 months into this, so maybe if we give these people 7 more months, within the year their hearts recover. After all the study only looked into a few weeks after recovery. Second, maybe we *will* have an effective and safe vaccine and it will add to the natural herd immunity so if we get the vaccine to protect, say, 30% of Americans (which is a fair assessment: it would imply that the vaccine would be accepted by 50% of Americans, which is in line with those who accept the flu shot, and would be protective at a rate of 60%, which is also in line with the average seasonal flu shot being protective between 40% in worse years to 80% in better years), only 20% more are needed for herd immunity.

That would mean that we'd cut down on the number of heart problems to two fifths or 3,071,680. But we can still keep going with the best case scenario. It's been hypothesized that people with type O blood are less susceptible to COVID-19 so presumably even if they get the virus they wouldn't have the heart damage. That's 37% of all Americans so we'd have to take them out of this number. What is left is 1,935,158 people. And, again best case scenario, we know that we have 75 million Americans below the age of 18. For various reasons (it is guessed that it may be because the youngsters have a lower level of ACE2 enzymes in their cells, which is an enzyme that the virus needs to invade cells) they are less susceptible. So we have to remove 22.6% from this number. This gives us 1,497,812 people. Finally, let's also get another 5% out, as it's been guessed that maybe 1 in 20 people have natural immunity, from having encountered more frequently other common cold coronavirus in the past, to this novel coronavirus. Now we are left with 1,422,921.

Let's understand that my "best case scenario" is indeed STRONGLY the best one, because I'm taking out huge chunks of less susceptible people, while the study only found 23% of people not having this, so maybe the less susceptible ones are only 23% and these type O and youngsters and naturally immune ones are already counted among those 23% and these factors haven't protected others so well. But again, when we say "best" we need to be frankly optimistic so I'll keep my method.

OK, so, *IF* the findings of this small study are confirmed (see, the study was with only 100 people), we'd have this:

Best case scenario, 1,422,921 Americans will be subject to a potential heart risk by the end of the pandemic
Worst case scenario, 7,679,200 Americans will be subject to a potential heart risk by the end of the pandemic

Again, *supposing* that this small study is subsequently confirmed by larger ones (not a given), I'd say that regardless of whether we run into the best case scenario or the worst one (or more likely something in-between), this *is* indeed concerning from the standpoint of public health and economic impact, which would result in the advice that we should indeed try to be careful now, until hopefully a vaccine is available.

That doesn't mean lockdowns... but just, sensible and common-sense precautions such as avoiding close proximity to others whenever possible, washing hands or hand-sanitizing after touching high-traffic surfaces, avoiding gatherings with more than 5 or 10 people, avoiding concerts, bars and restaurants and other closed spaces with a lot of people, and, more controversial, wearing face masks. The mask debate is a hugely different topic and I have lots of opinions on this (given the small size of the coronavirus, 0.1micron, only certain kinds of masks worn the proper way, can be relatively effective to reduce risk, but it's not at all what the population is wearing, and how they are wearing them, so effectiveness is low, but there ARE ways to make it better if people would listen, but I'm not optimistic that anybody would, in significant numbers) but I don't want to derail or hijack the topic here, which is the cardiac risks for people who have recovered from COVID-19.

My overall conclusion: it's too late for me, but even if it's the best case scenario, I should indeed advise my daughter-in-law who is a medical student, to go into Cardiology, if this small study is confirmed, haha. Lots of business for cardiologists, for sure... But yes, now that I read the MDedge article, this *is* concerning, if confirmed.

Sorry for the long post. The statistical treatment of the matter is complex enough to be only clearly explored with a long post.

Cheers.
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Interesting.

I think the bottom line is that it needs to run its course.

The idea that after millions of years of evolution there's suddenly a virus that's going to kill us in huge numbers if we don't become poster children for OCD is, frankly, absurd.

Antiduopolist · Aug 1, 2020

Eleuthera said: ↑

Can't you make the font any larger?
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And a deeper shade of RED!

Antiduopolist · Aug 1, 2020

MrTLegal said: ↑

Do me a favor.

NEVER imply that I am excited about dead Americans. I am trying to save American lives by making sure that people do not intentionally downplay the threat of this virus.
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It wouldn't be a successful hoax to burn the country to the ground if it didn't have its True Believers.

Antiduopolist · Aug 1, 2020

MrTLegal said: ↑

You should know that mistakes are going to be made and that particular mistake has already been corrected because the individual is no longer counted as a Covid-19 death.
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What a shame...

But the hoax will live on!

Vote Democrat 2020

Antiduopolist · Aug 1, 2020

MrTLegal said: ↑

Alright, yea...that's three posts in a row. Get ignored.
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The only action more infantile than ignoring other posters?

Announcing it.

Antiduopolist · Aug 1, 2020

Richard The Last said: ↑

So I will take that as "No".
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Incorrect.

Antiduopolist · Aug 1, 2020

Richard The Last said: ↑

Unlike continued posting of nonsense or facts without links; those are never a waste of time. Seems if you really had a valid point you would make it and if you had valid facts you would provide links to your source.
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Nope.

Antiduopolist · Aug 1, 2020

SiNNiK said: ↑

I call BS.
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The ACTUAL co-morbidities are likely a tiny fraction of what we're hearing.

But hoaxers gotta hoax - the country isn't in ashes yet!

Vote Democrat 2020

James California · Aug 1, 2020

MrTLegal said: ↑

I am trying to save American lives by making sure that people do not intentionally downplay the threat of this virus.
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~ Maybe you can be guest host on `The Andy Cuomo Show´ and preach your message ... ?

mitchscove · Aug 1, 2020

Eleuthera said: ↑

This one was engineered for 'gain of function' in 2015 with US funding and the knowledge of Anthony Fauci.
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Ummmm. Fauci started funding it when he was told his research would be defunded for FY 2015. He started funding EcoHealth Alliance who funded Wuhan in May 2014 about the time he had to be told about his FY 2015 project that would have started October 1, 2014,

You can probably find everything anyone would want to know about the project in these links:
https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/w...-Emerging-Infectious-Disease-Preparedness.pdf

https://andymaypetrophysicist.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/paper_funded_journal.ppat_.1006698.pdf

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/

https://www.nature.com/news/us-suspends-risky-disease-research-1.16192

https://taggs.hhs.gov/2015AnnualReport/Content/PDF/annualReport2015.pdf

https://www.usaspending.gov/#/award/ASST_NON_R01AI116442_7529/

https://beta.sam.gov/fal/bb7c4cf5d7df4a259d2bc12a24227075/view#contact-information

It was actually funded into 2019. Looks like Trump found it and ended it last year.

MrTLegal · Aug 1, 2020

SiNNiK said: ↑

I call BS.
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Do you? How many Americans do you think died of covid-19 yesterday?

mitchscove · Aug 1, 2020

MrTLegal said: ↑

Do you? How many Americans do you think died of covid-19 yesterday?
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We have no idea. At best we know how many people died "WITH" COVID. We have not been recording how many people died "OF" COVID by design.

James California · Aug 1, 2020

~ More stuff about the infamous Wuhan Institute of Virology :

➡ Pakistan and China have concluded a secret deal to expand potential bio-warfare capabilities, including running research projects related to the deadly anthrax, ...

https://www.newindianexpress.com/wo...-in-pakistan-fake-foreign-office-2175094.html

mitchscove · Aug 1, 2020

LangleyMan said: ↑

FAKE NEWS ALERT!
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True. Between $3 and $4 million. I posted the documentation. The research was to be banned in the US which instigated the project I posted links to.

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