Reverse psychology; Trump deserves full credit for two SUCCESSFUL vaccines

No.......Mainly Texas, Louisiana, Montana, and Minnesota.

 

Well it’s like Montana except more-so. You are correct, the difference between WY and MA effective reproduction number is population density and behaviors of the citizens of each state. This time of year good share of employed people in WY are working alone outdoors. Many don’t interact with anyone but their spouse and kids for weeks at a time. In contrast people in Boston are bumping into each other at work, play, and everywhere else. This means even if both WY and MA had say 80% of their populations vaccinated, a higher percentage of vaccinated individuals in MA would die of COVID than vaccinated individuals in WY.

This is why herd immunity is so misunderstood. The herd immunity threshold in WY is orders of magnitude lower than in MA. There are just so many factors affecting the herd immunity threshold besides just percentage vaccinated it’s almost impossible to determine what really is necessary to reach “herd immunity”.

 

ALSO, here's another eye-opening fact that MOST LIKELY relates to comorbidities;

But first, FACT-FINDING

According to several sources/stats........

1. Average days of hospitalizations for covid19;

a. Patients NOT on a ventilator, NOT in ICU.......average 3 days, percent of hospitalized patients; 75%

b. Patients ON a ventilator/IN ICU's.........average 14 days, percent of hospitalized patients; 25%

NOTE: Short definition of ICU........organ failure due to pre-existing conditions, and/or caused by Covid19

2. Average days from being infected to hospitalized; 14 days

3. Average days covid patients died after being admitted to Hospital; 14 days

4. Sequencing, BEFORE/AFTER being admitted to hospital;

a. BEFORE; Infections/symptoms; Average Two Weeks

b. AFTER; Ventilator/ICU/Death; Average Two weeks

Now, you're gonna like this;

Current Hospitalizations, PEAK and LOWS, since the beginning of the Pandemic, and number of patients in ICU's, and on Ventilators

59,795.....Apr 2020.........ICU;15,636/Ventilator; 5,514
28,012.....Jun 2020.........6,610/2,726
59,382.....Jul 2020..........10,308/2,729
28,724.....Sep 2020.........6,100/1,595
132,474...Jan 2021..........23,881/7,879
40,199.....Mar 2021..........8,134/2,821......covidtracking.com stopped tracking daily current hospitalizations, and number of patients on ventilators/in ICU's

12,768.....Jun 2021..........Carlson tracking project, state's healh figures, tracking project effective Apr 2021.
20,952.....Jul 21, 2021......2,638/1,056...............https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project

NOW, Percent of hospitalized Patients in ICU's/on Ventilators

59,795.....Apr 2020.........ICU: 26%/9.22%
28,012.....Jun 2020.........23.5%/9.73%
59,382.....Jul 2020..........17.3%/4.59%
28,724.....Sep 2020.........21%/5.55%
132,474...Jan 2021..........17%/5.99%
40,199.....Mar 2021.........20.2%/7%
12,768.....Jun 2021..........
20,952.....Jul 21, 2021.....12.59%/5.04%

NOTE: After the first wave, percent of patients on ventilators remained between 5% and 7%, HOWEVER, after the third wave, percent of patients in ICU's significantly decreased, WHY?

My rationale; Because today's hospitalized patients ARE YOUNGER, thus, generally healthier.

In addition, this correlation;

1. Short definition of ICU........organ failure due to pre-existing conditions, and/or caused by Covid19

2. Fact; Up to 86 Percent of Older Americans Have a Pre-Existing Condition

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-Resources/preexisting#:~:text=Up to 86 Percent of Older Americans Have a Pre-Existing Condition

NOTE: By the end of May 2021, 75% of Seniors were fully vaccinated.......https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewal...ors-are-now-fully-vaccinated/?sh=1478c91e4945.

-------------------------------

LAST..........I also figured out our current covid19 hospitalization/death ''as a percent of confirmed Cases'', and based on my two weeks SEQUENCING;

First/Second/Third WAVE; 3.6%,
Case/Fatality; 1.8%

Today; 1.2%,
Case/Fatality; 0.6%.......we will certainly not witness 2,000 deaths, 7 day rolling average.

NOTE: Case/Fatality based on my two weeks sequencing;

Number of deaths from July 7 to July 21........DIVIDED BY..........number of cases from June 22 to July 06

 

Well then he and Biden are on the same team for that one.

 

That is interesting. Thanks for running the numbers. Certainly the decreased Case Fatality is due in large part to younger healthier folks being a higher percentage of total. The most susceptible have been infected and either died or have recovered. And the older folks have been vaccinated at a higher rate as you point out.

Also, treatments like monoclonal antibodies are making a big difference in decreasing hospitalizations and deaths. Such advances in treatment don’t garner much media attention but they are certainly affecting outcomes of infected individuals who are allowed treatment.

 

We are still writting and we've been amending Covid19's encyclopedia.

Over the course of the pandemic, I've also realized that Covid19's rationale, math, averages, rates, percentages, and its correlations are quite UNIVERSAL, and like the game Sudoku, thus, from a few given numbers, one can figure out the missing numbers, for example;

TWO DAYS AGO, I asked myself the following question;

How many covid19 infected SWEDES have been hospitalized, and how many ended up in ICU's/on ventilators?........I wanted to compare my recent U.S. hospitalization statistics, and their statistics. After approx. 45 mins of googling, I only found the following info;

''Total intensive care hospitalizations''; 7,600........https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden

NOTE: Could't find ''Total Hospitalizations'' and ''Total on ventilators''

ONCE AGAIN, like the game Sudoku, I needed one more number to figure out the rest..........Thus, what about ''Percent of confirmed cases who ended up in ICU's''?

Swedes Total ICU admissions; 7,600 DIVIDED BY 1,095,758 confirmed cases = 0.69%...................https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/sweden

U.S Total ICU admissions; 227,839 DIVIDED BY 34,226,806 confirmed cases = 0.66%...............https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/united-states

A differential of 0.03%............very close!.........Swede's 1,095,750 confirmed cases X 0.03% differential = + 360 ICU admissions

As I stated, Covid19's rationale, math, averages, rates, percentages, and its correlations are quite UNIVERSAL, however, what factor may have caused Sweden's + 0.03%?

Let's figure it out............

Covid19 math/percentages; In Sweden, 99% who died of Covid19 were 50+........in the U.S. 95% who died of Covid19 were 50+, thus, a differential of 4%...........

Covid19 Universal Correlations; Old = Pre-Existing Condition(s) = ICU's

Once again, Swede's 1,095,750 confirmed cases X 0.03% differential = + 360 ICU admissions

Quick math; 7,600 minus 360 = 7,240 ICU admissions DIVIDED by 1,095,758 confirmed cases = 0.66%

Response: ''Yeah, but not all Covid Patients who were admitted in ICU's have died".............I KNOW.