The changing face of American Politics

I submit this article for discussion: https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...rofile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

In essence, she seems to be stating that regardless of which Democrat runs up against Trump, the tide will be against Trump. The fight isn't so much about fighting for the swing voters, which according to her are much lower than what other political analysts say it is (about 15%). She says it's much lower, closer to 6%. Her contention is not so much that people can get swayed, the evidence shows (very much like here on PF) it's a futile effort for the most part, but rather the actual turn out for an election.

In other words, people already lean one way or another on the political spectrum, even IF they believe they are independent or non-partisan, they usually tend to vote in that direction and if not motivated will just stay home. So what can change that dynamic in November? If people are sick and tired of the status quo.

That more than anything else drives people out to vote.

So with that info, I say let Trump be Trump. Let him create another crisis. He's real good at that. The more he keeps this up, the more folks will come out to vote in November.

 

Problem is that each one of those crisis undermines ... something. Our credibility in the international stage, our credibility, our constitution.... or it gives some precedent that a future President can use to do like Trump: abuse power to his or her own benefit.

So I don't agree that the problem is purely political.

There are political advantages in that this will motivate Democrats. But there is also the disadvantage that Trump will now feel that he has a license to cheat. Just like he did when he believed Barr that he was "exonerated" by the Mueller report (though, of course, he wasn't). And, make no mistake about it, he will cheat! And I'm not sure that the votes added by the motivation by Democrats will off-set the advantage a sitting President has when they are allowed to cheat.

 

Gosh, the general public doesn't seem to perceive the 'crisis' you guys keep telling us about. Just the opposite, in fact.

What makes you think things are so bad?

 

The changing face of American politics (lefties)

 

I agree, this acquittal will embolden him. What is not known is how far will he go in pushing the envelope. As you can see, many of the senators already have crap on their face by saying he has learned his lesson. BS! Look at this morning's prayer breakfast.

Bottom line is that registered Republicans numbers are not going to move. There are more Democratic leaning voters in this country than Republicans. What is needed is for them to go out and vote.

Trump's populism is going to run out of gas.

 

And Iowa if nothing else shows us that Dems ain't feeling inspired right now.

 

That's great!

And obviously you didn't bother to read the link, which addresses the paradigm you are trying to reference. Personal happiness indicators used to be a good indicator but now, not so much. That's why I titled my OP the way I did.

 

That's your opinion. Just like the OP.

Here's another indicator.

US productivity up 1.7% in 2019, best gain in 9 years

https://apnews.com/dbc099a424ec44059194d10bad2fb77d

Wanna tell us how that's meaningless too?

 

I keep hearing this idea that Democrats aren't turning out to the polls in numbers greater than 2016. So, if it's the case that the Democratic voters aren't showing up in numbers that will beat Trump then he will win, regardless.

 

Do you have an answer to my question?

What makes you think things are so bad?

 

"If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through into its counterside." Saul Alinsky in Rules for Radicals. Believe it or not there's still idiots that believe in this twaddle.

 

And yet, he promised it would be 5 to 6%.

 

Exactly! That was an announcement that now he feels he can do whatever the hell he wants, and they can't touch him.

That is true. All Americans who still value Democracy and the Republic. it's the only way to offset his dirty cheating. But he knows that losing these elections might imply prison time. So he'll do anything to win them.

 

We're about to see the dirtiest political campaign in history. That part is without doubt.

 

All in all it read to me like a Dem whistling past the grave yard.

 

A significant number of people wanted a change from the status quo and elected a relative unknown called Obama. They did not get the change they voted for as Obama turned out to be a supporter of wall street and disemboweling globalism . His doj didnt prosecute the criminals that imploded our economy and recession wiping out many average Americans. Obamacare was written by big insurance and many of the policies that people could afford were a joke given the enormous out of pocket expenses due to huge deductibles The single payer option was turned down by the dems . But Obamacare was based upon a conservative plan drummed up as an alternative to hillary care during the Clinton admin.

There was no real change as promised by Obama during his first campaign. He escalated regime change wars leaving Libya worse than it could ever be under gadaffi. A safe haven for radicals and slave traders.

Obama ran on change and won. The status quo remained

Then comes trump who campaigned on change and representing working people the DP had stopped representing under Clinton in the 90s. And this tv star beat both parties not just the dems .Why? He was anti status quo and it was decades of the same BS ..

The winner of this next election will be a change candidate that like trump will promise to represent the hunfteds of millions devastated economically by the combo of illegal immigration and offshoring our value added middle class jobs. Thanks to both parties that dont give a **** about the kind of people the dems once stood up for but stopped in the 90s thanks to Clinton agreeing to sign NAFTA and then selling out americans to communist china in the interest of big corporations and big banking.

No way in hell will any corporate dem will unseat trump if his prior voters can feel trump made a difference in their lives economically. He will keep those voters and if non trump voters can feel a difference the rational non dems will vote for trump.

The only kind of person that could beat trump is a change candidate like sanders. And if sanders was running against the kind of repubs that trump beat he would be the next president

So trump will be hard to beat by anyone at least today But a change candidate that promises to represent average working Americans will give him stiff competition.

It is public record on this forum that this sanders supporter in 16 said trump would beat hillary. For many people had been voting for deep change since Obama. And hillary was the neoliberal war mongering neocon. And would never change trade with communist china and mexico that was devised to only benefit the big donors of both parties. Working people had been told by politicians time and time again that the middle class jobs they lost were never coming back and they should forget about it! Hell learn how to code or get advanced degrees! Trump never told people that but to the contrary . And to this day neither the corporate dems nor msm understand why trump beat both parties. Instead they went to the usual shallow excuse that only the racists and other derogatory accusations was why trump beat both parties with hillary even calling his voters deplorable , showing how out of touch her and the DP was.

So as usual this writer of the OP article doesnt understand what is going on. Just as the so called experts and pundits were clueless about why trump was getting big crowds and energy during his campaign and how Americans latched onto this flawed candidate in 16.

But I will say today that Booty Gig loses to trump easily or any other dem who doesnt run on helping regular working Americans that the DP has told to take a hike.

 

I really have no clue if you're asking this question in sincerity.

It's like you want me to point out where the pile of dead bodies are in the room (of which there is already, but it doesn't register in your Trumpian echo chamber). What's the point of me having to regurgitate 3 years of political crises and news articles when all you will do is dismiss it as "fake news"?

Sorry, I'm not going to play that game anymore.

 

I don't vote.

Trump will win.

 

You do realize Trump has hired the most Goldman Sach's Alumni to be part of his cabinet more so than any other president?

Trump’s inner circle consists almost entirely of former Goldman Sachs executives, including his chief political adviser Steve Bannon, his national security adviser Dina Powell, and his top economic advisor Gary Cohn. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin worked at Goldman Sachs for 17 years. Last month, Trump nominated Eric Ueland, a former Goldman Sachs lobbyist, to serve as as the Under Secretary of State, one of the most senior posts in the State Department.

The appointments coincide with Trump advancing a regulatory and tax agenda that is largely identical to the policy demands of the financial services industry.
https://theintercept.com/2017/07/15...ngs-in-more-goldman-sachs-alumni-docs-reveal/​

 

Why not?

 

Do you mean why don't I vote?

 

Considering that, in the last one, they needed the Russian government, the FBI and a bogus House Select Committee to get this President* elected, that should make the hair on the back of your neck stand on end.

 

Because you have nothing. Got it.

 

You work for CNN? Seem unable to give credit where credit is due.

 

That's what I was responding to.....