Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Time for the Weekly Update to my State Rankings Project. Note the date because I track from Sunday to Sunday, so this report comes from 08/16. You can find last week's post here: http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-in-the-world.569531/page-476#post-1071946827

I made no changes to the type of data provided. First up are the data with the States ranked according to their Mortality rate. PREPARE YOURSELF FOR THE WALL OF TEXT.











In terms of MORTALITY, Connecticut has claimed the top spot for ten weeks in a row. When it took over the top spot, it's mortality rate was 9.259% and this week, two months later, the mortality rate has continued to drop fairly significantly to 8.749%. The only other minor changes to the top 10 is that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have swapped (5th and 6th). On the opposite end, Wyoming, Hawaii, Utah, Wisconsin, and Alaska continue to make up the bottom five.
Interesting Note: Arizona, for the 4th week in a row, is the only State from the top 10 to see its mortality rating increase.

CASES (PC) DIFF RANKINGS show that Georgia, Florida, Texas, California, and Idaho are the top five States in terms of seeing their Cases, per capita, grow the most. The range being 1,942.40 to 1,700.11. The five slowest States are New York, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine, and Vermont. The range being 238.97 to 89.46.
Interesting Note: Georgia has now claimed the top spot after being second last week. Florida has now been in the top of this category for five weeks in a row. The bottom five is the same as the last two weeks, albeit in a slightly different order.

CASES (PC) GROWTH RANKINGS show that Hawaii, Missouri, Puerto Rico, Montana and Alaska are the top five States in terms of seeing their Cases grow, as a percentage, the most. The range being 44.20% to 13.12%. On the opposite end are New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York. The range being 2.30% to 1.10%.
Interesting Note: Hawaii repeats as the #1 for the third week in a row. Puerto Rico and Montana also make a repeat appearance in the top five. The bottom five has slightly changed after six weeks in a row with New Hampshire replacing Maine.

DEATHS (PC) DIFF RANKINGS show that Arizona, Mississippi, Florida, Texas, and Louisiana are the top five States in terms of seeing their Deaths, per capita, grow the most. The range being 117.34 to 52.36. On the opposite end are Alaska, New York, Delaware, Maine, and Vermont. The range being 2.71 to 0.00. (Vermont had zero deaths).
Interesting Arizona had a sixth real rough week in a row given that it's 117 deaths per capita growth was roughly 57 more than Mississippi, who took 2nd for the third week in a row. Over the course of those six weeks, Arizona has added roughly 900 deaths per capita. Texas and Florida being in the top five of this category is a really awful sign given the size of their populations (28.7 million and 21.3 million respectively). Louisiana again repeats as a top five with Georgia and South Carolina just outside of the top five (6 and 7 respectively).

DEATHS (PC) GROWTH RANKINGS show that Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Texas, Florida, and West Virginia are the top five States in terms of seeing their Deaths, as a percentage, grow the most. The range being 29.03% to 15.11%. On the opposite end are Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. The range being 0.34% to 0.00%.
Interesting Note: Hawaii continues its relatively rapid growth in terms of deaths per capita although, in terms of raw numbers, it only gained ~7 deaths per capita which is roughly the same as Illinois who ranked 42nd. New York would have taken the slowest growth in this category for the 2nd week in a row, but for the fact that Vermont went the week without a death.

MORTALITY DIFF RANKINGS show that Arizona, Texas, Florida, South Carolina, and Mississippi are the top five States to see their Mortality go up the most. The range being 0.255% to 0.066%. On the opposite end are Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Michigan, and Montana. The range being -0.190% to -0.725%.
Interesting Note: This week, sixteen States saw their mortality increase after last week had 15 states increasing their mortality. Texas, Arizona, Florida, and South Carolina all repeat as top fivers. Interestingly, Montana saw its mortality rate drop by 0.725% which is nearly identical to the 0.715% drop it saw over the course of last week.

TESTING (POSITIVE %) DIFF RANKINGS show that Puerto Rico, North Carolina, Hawaii, Washington, and Missouri are the top five States in terms of seeing their Percentage of Positive Test increase the most. The range being 1.091% to 0.357%. On the opposite end are New Jersey, South Carolina, Arizona, Massachusetts, and Colorado. The range being -0.499% to -2.44%.
Interesting Note: This week, the number of States to see their positive testing percentage increase increased to 28 from the 26 last week. Ten weeks ago, it was only 10. I would note that Colorado saw a tremendous drop to its positive percentage numbers because they apparently decided to primarily report the results based on the number of tests instead of the number of individuals tested.

TESTS PER 100K DIFF RANKINGS show that Colorado, Kansas, District of Columbia, Alaska, and New York are the top five States to see their Tests Per 100K increase the most. The range being 4,807.83 to 2,871.73. On the opposite end are Pennsylvania, Wyoming, Puerto Rico, Washington, and North Carolina. The range being 855.995 to -596.36.
Interesting Note: Colorado takes over first place on the back of their decision to change which number is being reported (tests vs individuals). On the opposite end, North Carolina saw their test numbers drop significantly because apparently one of the labs that is located in NC reported all of their tests to NC despite the fact that many thousands of those tests were for individuals located outside the State. Both seem like fairly dumb decisions/mistakes to me.

TESTS PER 100K GROWTH RANKINGS show that Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, and Hawaii are the top five States to see their tests, as a percentage, increase. The range being 46.74% to 12.23%. On the opposite end are Mississippi, Utah, Puerto Rico, Washington, and North Carolina. The range being 4.89% to -3.12%.
Interesting Note: Again, take the very top and the very bottom of this ranking with a massive grain of salt based on the reporting alterations mentioned previously.

Unfortunately, a majority of the States continues to go in the wrong direction in terms of testing positive percentage. Every State needs to test more.

 

The scientists are the ones that projected 30 million infected and 2 to 3 million deaths, IN AMERICA, if not mitigated. So somebody was bad wrong but we should listen now or Trump did something. Please don't act like you don't remember, it's in the earlier pages of this thread.......

 

The model that projected 2.2 million dead - in a worse case scenario - was explicitly rejected by the Trump administration in favor of a model that projected anywhere from 35K to 195K dead.

But - and this is rather interesting to remember - you repeatedly dismissed that early model as chicken little screaming because the best case scenario was 200K dead. That "best case" scenario estimate looks a hell of a lot more reasonable now, doesn't it?

 

Uh, what? 0.02% is not multiplying by 0.002. It's multiplying by 0.0002 so it's not the number you are quoting. And people aged 18 to 21 are not children. Our child population is 71 million. So that's 14,200, not 173,000 (and it would have been 17,300 if we considered a 20 year old, a child, which nobody here in this country does, not 173,000). And I was told you are good with numbers...

But why in the hell do you suppose that ALL 71 million would get infected? That's absurd. Much before that, herd immunity would kick in. A virus typically can not infect an entire population. So maybe you are a numbers guy but I'm a healthcare guy... so I look at this from the epidemiology standpoint, not just math.

Huge influx of cases among children = doesn't change the fact that severity is minimal and mortality is even more minimal. No, the outbreak has been going on for 9 months. We do know who things typically evolve. That more children are now being exposed to the virus doesn't change the average way in which children react to the virus.

Have you stopped to think that mortality from TB and meningitis in children, and even the seasonal flu, is way higher than COVID-19? Pray tell, do we close all schools for the whole school year because there is some TB going around and some meningitis going around, or the flu for that matter?

Mortality by COVID-19 for children is even lower than deaths from school bus crashes. Should we close schools because sometimes there is a school bus crash with fatalities?

 

Sounds like Trump was right then huh.

 

Oh boy you've stepped in now but thanks for the slap of reality.

 

Sounds like you were wrong then, huh?

 

My wife and I taught high school for more than three decades and neither of us ever had the seasonal flu. We both kept teaching through flu outbreaks where 15% of the students were home sick. But there's no way either of would have even considered teaching in a community with a lot of COVID-19 unless we had truly effective PPE.

Indeed. Kids need to be around other kids.

One major problem: unionized teachers will not work through the pandemic if they or their students are getting sick.

The "fun" shtick might work for a couple of days. What do we do next week?

Significantly better ventilation will be almost impossible to implement quickly. The school bureaucracy will over their dead bodies modify procedures for building construction.

School facilities weren't built with even the possibility of social distancing in mind.

Check.

Yes, all cases quickly.

This loops back to teachers refusing to work if they or the students are getting sick.

Students don't need to 25-30 hours in class. Half-time for high school students is sufficient. This is best for students so they can socially distance.

I would have had no trouble getting students to go along with wearing masks, distancing, and even sticking to their cohorts if I could prove to them what we're doing is helping them not get COVID-19 and at the same time get the best education we can give them under the circumstances. Jamming them all in a school building to watch them five days a week isn't convincing.

To show you how people running schools don't "get it," we have many schools starting up inter-school athletics. How stupid is that?

 

Very nice of those teachers.

 

Only in LA LA land does someone say
"The model that projected 2.2 million dead - in a worse case scenario - was explicitly rejected by the Trump administration in favor of a model that projected anywhere from 35K to 195K dead."

Then says team Trump was wrong when we only have 5.5 million cases and 175k cases

 

Again, that was the original projection if nothing was done, the resident lefties on here pushed it too. Now something was done and we didn't hit that number or the scientist were off by 90%, take your choice. Go back to the early pages in this thread and you will see a big discussion on the 30 million infected and 2-3 million deaths.

 

Trump was wrong when he said this virus would "go away like a miracle." Trump was wrong when he said "anyone who wants a test can get a test." Trump was wrong when he said that he "wasn't worried at all about a pandemic." Trump was wrong when he said he "always knew this was going to be a pandemic." Trump was wrong when he said that he "didn't think an outbreak was inevitable." Trump was wrong when he said "the numbers of cases were going very substantially down." Trump was wrong when he said 1,000 Americans deaths per day was "the best in the world." Trump was wrong when he said HCQ should be taken to "prevent Covid-19."

You, on the other hand, were wrong when you called the Imperial College Model a blatant example of chicken little because the best case scenario predicted 200,000 dead Americans.

 

The CDC estimated that the number of Americans infected by this virus is 10x higher than the publicly confirmed count. That puts the US at around 55 million infected.

Luckily for everyone, the mortality rate of the virus appears to be significantly lower than the estimate used for that model. And thus, we only have around 170,000 dead after five months.

 

Ahh changing the subject now, guess we know who was wrong. I didn't call the Imperial College model an example of chicken little, so your wrong twice in what 5 posts. Your getting better, I give you that.

 

LOL ok so Trump was right their wouldn't be 2 - 3 million die from this. See it wasn't that hard geez.

 

I don't see how they think they can run a high school without social distancing, masks, cohorts, or 24-hour turnaround testing and tracing. Some districts are starting up inter-school athletics.

Yes. If we figure out what each course needs in terms of school physical plant, we can do some parts of a course at home, some at school.

It would be timely given our schools are opening over the next month.

 

I actually doubt that the CDC is right about that estimate. I have good reasons to doubt it, no time to explain it all now. But the missed cases may be much fewer. 2 in 3, or 4 in 5, maybe, but not 9 in 10.
Just another point: deaths are not all. This virus had the potential for severe and permanent health consequences for survivors.

 

Why you insist on giving Trump credit for being right on avoiding the worst case scenario from a model that his administration rejected in totality is just beyond rational.

Especially when you consider that this virus could STILL end up killing 2.2 million Americans.

 

You definitely rejected the notion that this study was worthy of consideration because the best case scenario was still too absurd in your mind.

 

Some numbers on how things are going in Mississippi schools.

.....During the briefing State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said that 71 counties have reported cases in schools up from 38 on Friday.

245 teachers and 199 students have tested positive with the coronavirus. That’s up from 109 cases in teachers and 69 cases in students on Friday.

Dr. Dobbs went on to say that 589 teachers and 2,035 students are currently under quarantine across the state.

https://www.wlox.com/2020/08/17/watch-gov-reeves-holds-coronavirus-press-conference/

 

Sounds kind of brutal. How long have they been open?

 

So, this happened about 15 minutes ago:

 

Herd immunity kicks in when circa 80% of the population has either been infected or vaccinated. So, extrapolating out from the entire population is appropriate. Also, youth up to at least 18 (and in some states, 21) are considered children. So, 71 million is also incorrect.

It's not just the mortality rate among all human beings, and in this case, children. It's also the lingering sickness and the fact that kids can also infect grandma and grandpa

You know, when people like you start spewing this kind of bullshit on a thread, I let it go by exactly one time.

That one time is now over with. STRIKE 1.

If I haven't already welcomed you to the thread, then WELCOME to this thread. I want to encourage you to read the OP before posting further.

 

Indeed. There, I strongly concur with you.

If you doubt the CDC and can provide information as to why, then by all means, do so.

 

The Oleander-Plant and Oleandrin
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I can't believe that I even need to write this, but the Oleander plant is incredibly toxic. The glycocides in Oleander (the main one of which is called: Oleandrin) can cause the human heart to stop immediately, depending on the amount of the plant ingested.

The plant has been used to torture people, to murder (assassinate) people and in Asia, is often called the "suicide plant". Just chewing on one single oleander-leaf has been known (and documented) to have killed children.



Pretty plant, eh? And pretty darned poisonous.

Yes, parts of the plant, carefully extracted and treated with other chemicals, can and have been used in traditional medicine, but:



There is no way in hell that anyone has adequately tested Oleander enough vis-a-vis COVID-19 in order to make a claim in any way that it is safe.

Anyone who is even thinking of recommending Oleandrin as a "cure" for Covid-19 should be hauled before a judge on attempted murder charges. Really, enough of this bullshit. Enough, already.