Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Pre-EOW-analysis tables for for the week of 2020-12-014 through 2020-12-020:
(GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT), Part 1:
Worldwide and and top 18 nations (split into two postings)
​

I started doing this differently one week ago: since Spain waits until Monday evening (my time) to release its numbers for Saturday, Sunday and Monday and since a slew of nations do a lot of retroactive updates during the day on Monday, which of course shifts the Sunday values, the combined Worldwide/USA analysis (with Spain tacked-on) will first come out late tonight, in about 13 hours. Also, things like the weekly values table and the rubrik worktables will all come out later. This saves me an extra step in the work, which is already tedious enough. This is also why the screenshots for the worldwide and USA values are marked as "semi-final" for now.

Here a screenshot of just page 1 of the WorldOMeter table (semi-final), for reference:

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍******* 77,158,924 ********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
THIS DATA IS ONLY SEMI-FINAL
+553,112 daily cases / +8,016 daily deaths
+4,511,821 cases over the week before / +80,269 deaths over the week before
For more details, see: Worldwide EOW analysis when it is published 2020-12-021​

USA:
֍******* 18,267,579 *******֍
THIS DATA IS ONLY SEMI-FINAL
+189,570 daily cases / +1,465 daily deaths
+1,527,611 cases over the week before / +18,384 deaths over the week before
THE USA CROSSED OVER 17 & 18 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
For more details, see: USA EOW analysis for when it is published 2020-12-021
​

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------​

INDIA:
֍ 10,056,248 ֍
+24,589 daily cases / +330 daily deaths
+171,532 cases over the week before / +2,450 deaths over the week before
India exceeded 10,000,000 total confirmed COVID-19 cases on 2020-12-018

​

BRAZIL:
******* 7,238,600 *******
+25,445 daily cases / +417 daily deaths
+336,610 cases over the week before / +5,354 deaths over the week before
Brazil exceeded 7,000,000 total confirmed COVID-19 cases on 2020-12-016

​

RUSSIA:
** 2,848,377 **
+28,948 daily cases / +511 daily deaths
+194,449 cases over the week before / +3,917 deaths over the week before
​

FRANCE
** 2,473,354 **
+12,799 daily cases / +131 daily deaths
+96,502 cases over the week before / +2,683 deaths over the week before
​

UNITED KINGDOM:
** 2,040,147 **
+35,928 daily cases / +326 daily deaths
+190,744 cases over the week before / +3,231 deaths over the week before
The UK exceeded 2,000,000 total C19 cases on 2020-12-019​

TURKEY:
** 2,024,601 **
+20,316 daily cases / +246 daily deaths
+187,873 cases over the week before / +1,680 deaths over the week before
Turkey exceeded 2,000,000 total C19 cases on 2020-12-019
THE WEEK BEFORE, TURKEY SPRUNG SUDDENLY FAR OVER THE MILLION MARK. SEE:
Turkey swings wildly over 1,000,000 C19 cases, posted 2020-12-010, 21:38 GMT +2, #12965.​

ITALY:
* 1,953,185 *
+15,102 daily cases / +352 daily deaths
+109,473 cases over the week before / +4,279 deaths over the week before

​

SPAIN:
* 1,817,488 *
+0 daily cases / +0 daily deaths (no change from the day before)
(+63,379) cases over the week before / (+1,041) deaths over the week before
Spain revises it's weekend figures on Mondays, so I will complete the Spain weekend figures on Monday evening.
​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,541,285 *
+4,116 daily cases / +50 daily deaths
+43,125 cases over the week before / +1,047 deaths over the week before
ENORMOUS 34.27% POSITIVITY-RATE IN ARGENTINA

​

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Pre-EOW-analysis tables for for the week of 2020-12-014 through 2020-12-020
(GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT), Part 2:
Worldwide and and top 18 nations (split into two postings)


GERMANY:
* 1,514,783 *
+20,822 daily cases / +350 daily deaths
+176,300 cases over the week before / +4,358 deaths over the week before
Germany advanced over Colombia in the total C19-case rankings on 2020-12-020
​

COLOMBIA:
* 1,507,222 *
+11,160 daily cases / +207 daily deaths
+81,448 cases over the week before / +1,422 deaths over the week before

​

MEXICO:
* 1,313,675 *
+12,129 daily cases / +627 daily deaths
+72,239 cases over the week before / +4,172 deaths over the week before
ENORMOUS 39.04% POSITIVITY-RATE IN MEXICO
​

POLAND:
* 1,202,700 *
+8,590 daily cases / +143 daily deaths
+67,024 cases over the week before / +2,533 deaths over the week before
​

​

IRAN:
* 1,158,384 *
+6,312 daily cases / +177 daily deaths
+50,115 cases over the week before / +1,429 deaths over the week before
​

PERU:
997,517
+1,618 daily cases / +69 daily deaths
+12,544 cases over the week before / +426 deaths over the week before
Peru: 997,517, averaging +1,792 new infections per day = 1.4 days before Peru jumps as 16th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-022
​

UKRAINE:
964,448
+8,325 daily cases / +116 daily deaths
+70,233 cases over the week before / +1,431 deaths over the week before
Ukraine: 964,448, averaging +10,033 new infections per day = 3.5 days before Ukraine jumps as 17th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-024
​

SOUTH AFRICA:
921,922
+9,445 daily cases / +152 daily deaths
+60,958 cases over the week before / +1,415 deaths over the week before
South Africa: 921,922, averaging +8,709 new infections per day = 9 days before South Africa jumps as 18th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-029
​

Appendix - There were some important analyses thoughout the week from 2020-12-014 through 2020-12-020 (including this 2-part analysis from this morning):
Pre-analysis tables Part I for 2020-12-013, posted 2020-12-014, 10:30 GMT +2, #12984.
Pre-analysis tables Part II for 2020-12-013, posted 2020-12-014, 10:32 GMT +2, #12985.
Combined Worldwide and USA EOW analysis for 2020-12-013, posted 2020-12-014, 22:46 GMT +2, #12998.
EOD general quick analysis for 2020-12-014, posted 2020-12-015, 09:59 GMT +2, #12987.
EOD general quick analysis for 2020-12-015, posted 2020-12-016, 11:56 GMT +2, #12989.
US state of California: over +61,000 cases and +407 death in one day, posted 2020-12-018, 12:45 GMT +2, #12995.
EOD general quick analysis for 2020-12-016, posted 2020-12-017, 15:00 GMT +2, #12996.
EOD general quick analysis for 2020-12-017, posted 2020-12-018, 10:01 GMT +2, #12998.
EOD general quick analysis for 2020-12-018, posted 2020-12-019, 09:50 GMT +2, #13004.
EOD general quick analysis for 2020-12-019, posted 2020-12-020, 09:39 GMT +2, #13021.
Pre-analysis tables Part I for 2020-12-020, posted 2020-12-021, 08:53 GMT +2, #13026.
Pre-analysis tables Part II for 2020-12-020, posted 2020-12-021, 08:55 GMT +2, #13027.





-Stat

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Combined Worldwide / USA / Spain analysis for the week of 2020-12-014 through 2020-12-020
(GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT)
​

Until now, I have always done separate Worldwide and USA analyses, but I have not been feeling well for a number of weeks now and simply do not have the energy to write so much small-detail blah-blah, well aware that those who have been following my postings are excellent at interpreting the data for themselves. Also, since Spain waits until Mondays to get the weekend data in, I think that this mini-format will be the right one for the future.

The crown-jewel in this new format is this table:



The values in columns L and O are the most important: they show the difference to the week before. In the case of Covid-19, positive values are bad, negative values are good. This table saves me oodles of text to write. If you, however, have any questions about it, then let me know.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍******** 77,170,693 *******֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
+564,881 daily cases / +8,357 daily deaths
+4,532,590 cases over the week before / +80,610 deaths over the week before
106,275 ICU CASES AT PRESENT
INDIA CROSSED OVER THE 10-MILLION MARK THIS WEEK, JOINING THE USA
For more details, see the rubrik worktable below and the weekly change-table at the start of the analysis​

There were 22 nation-rubrik changes in the last week.

USA:
֍******** 18,273,607 ********֍
+195,598 daily cases / +1,531 daily deaths
+1,533,639 cases over the week before / +18,450 deaths over the week before
27,997 ICU CASES AT PRESENT
THE USA CROSSED OVER 17 and 18 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES THIS LAST WEEK
For more details, see the rubrik worktable below and the weekly change-table at the start of the analysis
​

There were 8 unit-rubrik changes over the last week. Also, with +61,569 cases in just one day, California set a horrifying +case record on Wednesday, 2012-12-016.

For months now, I have been extrapolating the likely future total deaths in the USA. For a long time, that extrapolation held, but as you can see, in the last 4 weeks, ever increasingly, the explosion of deaths has blown this extrapolation fully out of the water, so I am just gonna leave it here for all to see and that's that. We are now over +47,000 deaths past the extrapolation and if things get worse, we may very end up over 350,000 total deaths in the USA by year's end. It's a sign of a pandemic totally out of control and badly managed. No other country in the world has even close to this level of deaths. It's just.... staggering. And sad...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------​

SPAIN:
* 1,822,607 *
+5,554 daily cases / +111 daily deaths
+68,538 cases over the week before / +1,264 deaths over the week before
Spain, like Turkey, has problems with prompt reporting due to the backlog in autonomous regions of the country
​

I think that for a while, I will just tack the Spain stats onto the weekend reports and keep it this way - shorter, both the Worldwide and USA figures together, less blah blah and published later on Monday evening (my time) for the Sunday totals so that the slight shifts in the weekend totals that happen every single Monday can be accurately reflected.

-Stat

 

I've nothing to say except, sigh.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Short COVID-19 analysis for WINTER SOLSTICE, Monday, 2020-12-021 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 1,500,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: I'm releasing only barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations throughout the week.
-Then, I will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week and also two large analyses at End of Month (EOM) and End of Year (EOY).
-You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

As of 2020-12-007, I added Turkey, Ukraine and South Africa to the tracking. Turkey is now in the daily small analyses. Of the other two plus Peru, all three of which are now over 900,000 cases:

Peru: 998,475, averaging +1,764 new infections per day = 1 days before Peru jumps as 16th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-022
Ukraine: 970,993, averaging +10,047 new infections per day = 2.9 days before Ukraine jumps as 17th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-024
South Africa: 930,711, averaging +9,226 new infections per day = 7.5 days before South Africa jumps as 18th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-028

It very much looks like we will end the year 2020 with 18 nations over the 1,000,000-mark.

BTW, I would like to encourage everyone that, when you read the excel table screenshots, look at the +cases and +deaths for each country and then go to columns N & O and do a quick mental comparison to the 7 day rolling averages for both of those figures. I think that this can often be very enlightening.

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 18 NATIONS
In the week, the figures for worldwide +12 of those nations are published as screenshots here, with Germany and Colombia having been added today.​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍****** 77,707,303 ******֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
+536,610 daily cases, less than the Saturday before / +8,943 deaths
ROLLING 7-DAY AVERAGE = +646,540 daily cases / +11,563 daily deaths
WORLDWIDE, 8 PEOPLE ARE DYING FROM COVID-19 EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF EACH DAY
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOUTH KOREA EXCEEDED 50,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 90th NATION TO DO SO
S. KOREA and THE USA REPORTED THEIR VERY FIRST CASE ON THE SAME DAY IN JANUARY, 2020
PARAGUAY EXCEEDED 100,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 74th NATIONS TO DO SO
PERU IS NOW 1,525 AWAY FROM THE MILLION-MARK, WILL BE THE 16th NATION TO CROSS OVER
BOTSWANA EXCEEDED 500,000 TOTAL PERFORMED C19 TESTS ON THIS DAY, 101st NATION TO DO SO
​

USA:
֍******** 18,473,716 ********֍
+200,109 daily cases, slightly less than the Monday before / +1,837 daily deaths
The USA's rolling +case average has stayed above +200,000 for 16 consecutive days now
MICHIGAN EXCEEDED 500,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, THE 10th UNIT TO DO SO
​

INDIA:
֍ 10,075,422 ֍
+19,174 daily cases / +302 daily deaths
India is now 3,855 away from 150,000 total C19 deaths
​

BRAZIL:
******* 7,264,221 *******
+25,621 daily cases / +549 daily deaths
Brazil is now 12,678 away from 200,000 total C19 deaths
​

RUSSIA:
** 2,877,727 **
+29,350 daily cases / +493 daily deaths
​

FRANCE:
** 2,479,151 **
+5,797 daily cases / +351 daily deaths​

​

UK:
** 2,073,511 **
+33,364 daily cases / +215 daily deaths​

Today is the twelth day to post Turkey's stats in the short daily analysis but before you read, if you did not see the analysis for 2020-12-010, please read this: Turkey swings wildly over 1,000,000 C19 cases, posted 2020-12-010, 21:38 GMT +2, #12965.

TURKEY:
** 2,043,704 **
+19,103 daily cases / +254 daily deaths

​

ITALY:
* 1,964,054 *
+10,869 daily cases / +415 daily deaths
​

SPAIN:
* 1,830,110 *
+7,503 daily cases / +112 deaths
​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,547,138 *
+5,853 daily cases / +184 deaths
​

GERMANY:
* 1,534,116 *
+19,333 daily cases / +533 deaths
​

COLOMBIA:
* 1,518,067 *
+10,845 daily cases / +205 deaths
​

 

PERU GOES OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES, IS THE 16th NATION ON EARTH TO DO SO.​

This happened today, 2020-12-022:



The Peru excel-table:

 

Yes we did it, 1129 cases, what a proud number.
Broke the threshold
And the Bonus, doubled the death by covid.

131 in a week that is solidly over a 10% increase.
Nearly 800 active cases, that is MAGA, that is winning

Every Saturday, from 10 to 11am, we have the motorcade, Trump 2020. They have become less, but they just mount more flags to counter it.

Rather pathetic.
Everything is still open, churches packed to capacity

If this were in Mutti Land they would built a fence around the county and block the roads.

This will be a very long winter and there will be a lot of tears.

Bro, how does the lock down effect you ?

 

We all do.

 

Cases doubled in a week in my rural area where there are around 7,000 people. I had to see the doctor and was given a Covid19 test although I was there for a different medical issue entirely. On my way home there was someone trying to hitchhike while not wearing a mask. Why would I take that risk?

Unconfirmed rumor going around that suicides are on the increase too but I haven't been able to either confirm or disprove it. However for those who have already lost loved ones and are in the depths of depression and feeling alone during the holidays because of the pandemic I can understand why this is a real possibility.

FTR results came back negative.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Short COVID-19 analysis for Tuesday, 2020-12-022 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 1,500,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: I'm releasing only barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations throughout the week.
-Then, I will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week and also two large analyses at End of Month (EOM) and End of Year (EOY).
-You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

As of 2020-12-007, I added Turkey, Ukraine and South Africa to the tracking. Turkey is now in the daily small analyses. Peru just went over the 1,000,000-mark on this day, which I noted HERE.

Of the other two both of which are now over 900,000 cases:
Ukraine: 979,506, averaging +10,061 new infections per day = 2.03 days before Ukraine jumps as 17th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-025, maybe, just maybe, 2020-12-024
South Africa: 940,212, averaging +9,505 new infections per day = 6.3 days before South Africa jumps as 18th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-028

It very much looks as if we will end the year 2020 with 18 nations over the 1,000,000-mark.

BTW, I would like to encourage everyone that, when you read the excel table screenshots, look at the +cases and +deaths for each country and then go to columns N & O and do a quick mental comparison to the 7 day rolling averages for both of those figures. I think that this can often be very enlightening.

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 18 NATIONS
In the week, the figures for worldwide +12 of those nations are published as screenshots here.​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍******* 78,346,527 *******֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
+639,224 daily cases, slightly more than the Tuesday before / +14,517 deaths, an all-time high
ROLLING 7-DAY AVERAGE = +650,818 daily cases / +11,739 daily deaths
WORLDWIDE, 8.1 PEOPLE ARE DYING FROM COVID-19 EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF EVERY SINGLE DAY
AT THIS RATE OF GROWTH, THE WORLD WILL END 2020 WITH OVER 84 MILLION TOTAL C19 CASES
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
MONGOLIA EXCEEDED 1,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 173rd NATION TO DO SO
PERU EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 16th NATIONS TO DO SO
MONGOLIA EXCEEDED 500,000 TOTAL PERFORMED C19 TESTS ON THIS DAY, 102nd NATION TO DO SO
​

USA:
֍******** 18,684,628 ********֍
+210,912 daily cases, slightly more than the Tuesday before / +4,052 daily deaths (MORE than another "911")
The USA's rolling +case average has stayed above +200,000 for 17 consecutive days now
At this rate of case growth, the USA will go over 20 million total confirmed C19 cases on 2020-12-028
CALIFORNIA ALONE IS NOW ON THE CUSP OF 2,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
THE USA IS NOW 19,176 AWAY FROM 350,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS
AT THIS RATE OF +DAILY DEATHS, THE USA WILL EXCEED 350,000 C19 DEATHS ON 2020-12-029
​

INDIA:
֍ 10,099,308 ֍
+23,886 daily cases / +331 daily deaths
India is now 3,524 away from 150,000 total C19 deaths
At an average of +335 deaths per day, India will go over 200,000 total deaths on 2021-01-002
​

BRAZIL:
******* 7,320,020 *******
+55,799 daily cases / +963 daily deaths
Average +daily cases & +daily deaths in Brazil have both DOUBLED over the last 6 weeks
Brazil is now 11,715 away from 200,000 total C19 deaths
At an average of +776 deaths per day, Brazil will go over 200,000 total deaths on 2021-01-006
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 28.48%
​

RUSSIA:
** 2,906,503 **
+28,776 daily cases / +561 daily deaths
At an average of +28,364 daily cases, Russia will go over the 3-million mark on 2020-12-026
​

FRANCE:
** 2,490,946 **
+11,795 daily cases / +802 daily deaths​

​

UK:
** 2,110,314 **
+36,803 daily cases / +691 daily deaths​

Today is the thirteenth day to post Turkey's stats in the short daily analysis but before you read, if you did not see the analysis for 2020-12-010, please read this: Turkey swings wildly over 1,000,000 C19 cases, posted 2020-12-010, 21:38 GMT +2, #12965.

TURKEY:
** 2,062,960 **
+19,256 daily cases / +251 daily deaths

​

ITALY:
* 1,977,370 *
+13,316 daily cases / +628 daily deaths
​

SPAIN:
* 1,838,564 *
+8,544 daily cases / +260 deaths
​

GERMANY:
* 1,556,611 *
+22,495 daily cases / +944 deaths
Germany surpassed Argentina in the C19 total case rankings on this day
​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,555,279 *
+8,141 daily cases / +257 deaths
​

COLOMBIA:
* 1,530,593 *
+12,526 daily cases / +251 deaths
​

 

I am sensing that you and I are going to get along famously, Laddie!!!

 

The bolded: YES, they would.

Hey, bro.

The lockdown sucks, but I see it as necessary. Germans really are taking this seriously. Practically no one is buying anything with cash right now, so that bills do not need to pass hands. Most are using their smartphones to pay for stuff. Aldi now has the "Abstandslinie" at 2.5 meters instead of 1.5. Long lines before essential businesses that are still open. The streets make Bonn look like a Ghost-town. I and four of my neighbor buds (the neighbors call us all "the Meister Proper Gang" - the Mr. Clean gang):



still check in on the elderly neighbors and do their shopping for them. We will also be helping them to dispose of their Christmas trees in January. I always have two extra masks with me, freshly washed and packed in a small plastic bag. A small bottle of hand sanitizer is always in my left buttpocket.

My daughter will be here on the 25th to celebrate "Weihnachten" with Papa (I'm a Jew, she's Christian) and then I won't see her for about 3 weeks because she and her mother will go into 2 weeks of voluntary quarantine before they do a post-Christmas with relatives elsewhere in Germany. Those are going to be three very lonely weeks for me.

The business is running mostly digital and I have discovered a new software that allows for audio in real time, without more than 0.01 second delay, so that helps.

The two dogs got sick, first the one with diarhhea, then the other one. A neighbor illegally put out of rat-poison without marking the spot with a warning sign, so a lot of dogs in the neighborhood got sick, mine as well. Because the dude laid the stuff out where a small child could also pick it up and die from it and I filmed the remaining poison pellets and called the police, who gathered up the stuff and are doing the forensic stuff. We will see what happens, but I suspect that the guy will end up before a judge and I will have to testify. Happy, happy, joy, joy. The neighborhood is reacting very negatively to him, deliberately blocking his driveway, confronting him on the street and I do believe that someone egged his car yesterday morning. I read him the riot act yesterday, with some very, very harsh words.

So, I am plugging along and thankful that I have not gotten infected.

Good to hear from you.

 

= "CONCATINATE"

 

Vero, e vero!

Some like to see bar graphs and pretty pics but I love to see the cold, hard numbers, baby!!!

 

The next couple of days I plan to intersperse some holiday joy into this COVID-19 thread. After such a shitty year known as 2020, it only seems fitting to still have some humanity in all of this.

This young group out of Utah is really very talented and this is their latest premiere:



Happy approaching Holidays!

 

Hi Bro.

You are doing good stuff in your live, Meister Proper and his gang.
Christmas, 25tn I take a day of from Covid. 9 am I will in my company, no mask, no shield and do some major fixing of machines.
Like the old times, sound rather strange, don't you agree.
Just me and my dogs, the pigs can not come. Have a duck, a few glasses of red whine, Argentine Merlo, home of Grand Ma and wrench, grease and oil and have some rather nasty old hard core rock at full blast, window breaking.
Might throw in some Beethoven, the real hard core heavy stuff, Ode, for his 250.
I like the Ode, I think I will start and end, in between, Led Zeppelin, the Who, Jimy blues, Janis blues and than let Beethoven end the day, slight drunk.
I will throw the Misa Creola in, that is powerful stuff. Atheist, I am..
Reminds me of one of my stupidities.
I was walking across the Andes, 81. At the 24 of Dec I reached a small village, just before when the real serious part started, the rather high stuff, were it got rather nasty.
I pitched my tend close to the church and the priest invited me, for the 24th Holy Night celebration. I will never forget that moment, -20 and than that guy belted that song out, SENIOR..............................
4 weeks later I sat at the Pacific, slightly worn and I heard that guy again,
SENOIR, heard him all the way, the power, the will, in my brain

Be save Bro
Enjoy your daughter

 

Misa Criolla - Ariel Ramírez (1964) - YouTube

Thats the one I mean.

Powerful.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Short COVID-19 analysis for Wednesday, 2020-12-023 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 1,500,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: I'm releasing only barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations throughout the week.
-Then, I will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week and also two large analyses at End of Month (EOM) and End of Year (EOY).
-You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

As of 2020-12-007, I added Turkey, Ukraine and South Africa to the tracking. Turkey is now in the daily small analyses. Peru just went over the 1,000,000-mark on 2020-12-021, which I noted HERE.

Of the other two both of which are now over 900,000 cases:
Ukraine: 989,642, averaging +9,991 new infections per day = 1.04 days before Ukraine jumps as 17th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-025, maybe, just maybe, 2020-12-024
South Africa: 954,258, averaging +10,082 new infections per day = 4.5 days before South Africa jumps as 18th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-028

It very much looks as if we will end the year 2020 with 18 nations over the 1,000,000-mark.

BTW, I would like to encourage everyone that, when you read the excel table screenshots, look at the +cases and +deaths for each country and then go to columns N & O and do a quick mental comparison to the 7 day rolling averages for both of those figures. I think that this can often be very enlightening.

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 18 NATIONS
In the week, the figures for worldwide +12 of those nations are published as screenshots here.​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍******** 79,036,690 ********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
+690,163 daily cases, less than the Wednesday before / +13,722 deaths, 2nd highest total to-date
ROLLING 7-DAY AVERAGE = +645,714 daily cases / +11,745 daily deaths
WORLDWIDE, 8.2 PEOPLE ARE DYING FROM COVID-19 EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF EVERY SINGLE DAY
AT THIS RATE OF GROWTH, THE WORLD WILL END 2020 WITH OVER 84 MILLION TOTAL C19 CASES
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CYPRUS EXCEEDED 100 TOTAL C19 CASES ON 2020-12-022 (RETROACTIVELY), 136th NATION TO DO SO
VENEZUELA EXCEEDED 1,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY, 83rd NATION TO DO SO​

USA:
֍******** 18,917,152 ********֍
+232,524 daily cases, less than the Wednesday before / +3,394 daily deaths (another "911")
The USA's rolling +case average has stayed above +200,000 for 18 consecutive days now
THE USA WILL EXCEED 19 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C19-CASES TODAY, 2020-12-024
At this rate of case growth, the USA will exceed 20 million total confirmed C19 cases on 2020-12-028
CALIFORNIA EXCEEDED 2,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
MINNESOTA & SOUTH CAROLINA BOTH EXCEEDED 5,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY
THE USA IS NOW 15,782 AWAY FROM 350,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS
AT THIS RATE OF +DAILY DEATHS, THE USA WILL EXCEED 350,000 C19 DEATHS ON 2020-12-029
​

INDIA:
֍ 10,123,544 ֍
+24,236 daily cases / +302 daily deaths
India is now 3,222 away from 150,000 total C19 deaths
At an average of +327 deaths per day, India will go over 200,000 total deaths on 2021-01-002​

BRAZIL:
******* 7,366,677 *******
+46,657 daily cases / +979 daily deaths
Average +daily cases & +daily deaths in Brazil have both DOUBLED over the last 6 weeks
Brazil is now 10,735 away from 200,000 total C19 deaths
At an average of +777 deaths per day, Brazil will go over 200,000 total deaths on 2021-01-006
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 25.76%
​

RUSSIA:
** 2,933,753 **
+27,250 daily cases / +549 daily deaths
At an average of +28,471 daily cases, Russia will very likely go over the 3-million mark on 2020-12-026
​

FRANCE:
** 2,505,875 **
+14,929 daily cases / +276 daily deaths​

UK:
** 2,149,551 **
+39,237 daily cases / +744 daily deaths​

Today is the fourteenth day to post Turkey's stats in the short daily analysis and the last day that I will mention this, but before you read, if you did not see the analysis for 2020-12-010, please read this: Turkey swings wildly over 1,000,000 C19 cases, posted 2020-12-010, 21:38 GMT +2, #12965.

TURKEY:
** 2,082,610 **
+19,650 daily cases / +259 daily deaths

​

ITALY:
* 1,991,278 *
+13,908 daily cases / +553 daily deaths
​

SPAIN:
* 1,847,874 *
+9,220 daily cases / +178 deaths
​

GERMANY:
* 1,587,908 *
+31,297 daily cases / +886 deaths

​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,563,865 *
+8,586 daily cases / +60 deaths
The positivity rate in Argentina is an enormous 34.01%
​

COLOMBIA:
* 1,544,826 *
+14,233 daily cases / +243 deaths
The positivity rate in Colombia is an enormous 20.11%
​

 

UKRAINE GOES OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES, IS THE 17th NATION ON EARTH TO DO SO.​

This happened early today, 2020-12-024:





The Ukraine excel-table:



The timestamp at the Excel table already says "EOD" because Ukraine, like Russia, does not do updates, their data for 2020-12-024 is already final.


Up next in the coming days: South Africa.

 

The chart below is from 11/15/20 and that was 10 days BEFORE Thanksgiving.



The chart below is from 11/24/20 which is where we were for Thanksgiving.



And this is the chart from 12/23/20 a month AFTER Thanksgiving.




Do we really want to see what the chart is going to look like just days AFTER the Inauguration?


It is NEVER too LATE to MITIGATE!

 

First, I would like to wish everyone in PF a Merry Christmastide! (Yes, in the past, "Christmastide" was very often used of as a friendly term) In Germany, the main emphasis at Christmas is at "Heiligabend" (Holy Evening) - Christmas Eve. In spite of a truly terrible year (by so many metrics), I hope that each and every one of you enjoys a wonderful, loving, warm, fullfilling Christmastide.

Second, I wanted to write my impressions about what is likely to happen in the next days as far as COVID-19 is concerned. As we all know, a virus knows nothing of nor does is care about holidays and Christmas, like Easter, is a holiday that will be celebrated in pretty much every corner of the world. What does that mean from the viewpoint of one who has been watching the COVID-19 statistics evolve since February 27th, 2020? It means that we are looking at heightened travel by plane, train, boat and car for millions and millions of people, thus putting them in contact with a pretty large amount of strangers. So, desired or undesired, planned or unplanned, conscious or unconscious, a number of chains of contact are going to be created. We also know that people will congregate more at the holidays and unfortunately, it is likely that many will let their guard down. This all will invariably lead to a new surge in C19-infections and as to the mortality rate as a result, only time will tell.

I submit to you that the USA is in the worst possible position of all, as the USA had just recovered from the Labor Day surge and then, long BEFORE Thanksgiving, right around the end of October, had a massive surge and then came Thanksgiving, the effect of which we are seeing just now, and now, on top of all of that, we are looking at the Christmas holidays and then the New Year celebrations. Also, it is worth noting that the Christmas Eve and the first day of Christmas are on a Thursday and Friday and then Silvester (New Year's Eve) and New Years will also be on a Thursday and Friday: both occasions will be followed by a normal weekend and as we have seen all year, Sunday COVID-19 reporting has tended to be the very lightest day of every single week since the Pandemic began to catch out attention in March.

So, we are looking at the prospect of a huge number of infections happening, but not being caught for a while. That's veery, very dangerous. In fact in some corners of the world, we may see the C19 numbers - as of today, Christmas Eve - go artificially down for a while, maybe until Tuesday, January 5th, 2021.

But in some other corners of the world, we may actually see an explosion of case reporting next week Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday as many countries have medical budgets that need to be expended by the end of the year, otherwise, those budgets get cut some in the following year. In Germany's health-care system, this is the case.

So, from today until January 5th, the numbers may look somewhat erratic, but this does not mean that COVID-19 has gone away. It just means that we have taken our eyes off the virus for a short time to celebrate two holidays right after each other. And you know, medical personnel who have been busting their asses all year long to save lives also have families and they might just want to open up a gift or two from Santa as well.

I am not criticizing any of this. I am merely pointing out that the holidays, although wonderful and for many, absolutely necessary, are doubtless going to lead to yet another surge. And in the USA, this literally means a surge on top of a surge on top of a surge. Heck, in the USA, you can stop calling it a surge and simply call it one big old tsunami.

And finally, between Christmas and the New Year I will write how I plan to change some aspects of the COVID-19 analyses starting on January 4th, 2021.

 

While you are blowing the windows out, try some of these.

 

I just have a old Geto Buster, 40 pounds, but runs cds, but for sure makes a lot of noice.
First time I did that 15 years ago I had to cops nocking at the door. By now they know.

But nice music, like it.

But when I have to deal with a 1000 pound metal beast and 10 ton bearing press, than I need hard core rock, so I do not hear my own cussing

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Short COVID-19 analysis for Christmas Eve, Thursday, 2020-12-024 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 1,500,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: I'm releasing only barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations throughout the week.
-Then, I will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week and also two large analyses at End of Month (EOM) and End of Year (EOY).
-You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

As of 2020-12-007, I added Turkey, Ukraine and South Africa to the tracking. Turkey is now in the daily small analyses. Peru just went over the 1,000,000-mark on 2020-12-021, which I noted HERE. And Ukraine just went over the 1,000,000 early on this very day, Christmas Eve, which I noted HERE.

Of the final tracking country with over 900,000 cases but not yet at 1,000,000:
South Africa: 968,563, averaging +10,821 new infections per day = 2.9 days before South Africa jumps as 18th nation over 1,000,000 = 2020-12-028, maybe, just maybe 2020-12-027.

We are going to end the year 2020 with 18 nations over the 1,000,000-mark.

BTW, I would like to encourage everyone that, when you read the excel table screenshots, look at the +cases and +deaths for each country and then go to columns N & O and do a quick mental comparison to the 7 day rolling averages for both of those figures. I think that this can often be very enlightening.

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 18 NATIONS
In the week, the figures for worldwide +12 of those nations are published as screenshots here.​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍********* 79,722,392 *********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
+685,702 daily cases, less than the Thursday before / +11,758 deaths
ROLLING 7-DAY AVERAGE = +637,321 daily cases / +11,566 daily deaths
WORLDWIDE, 8.1 PEOPLE ARE DYING FROM COVID-19 EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF EVERY SINGLE DAY
AT THIS RATE OF GROWTH, THE WORLD WILL END 2020 WITH OVER 84 MILLION TOTAL C19 CASES
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE USA EXCEEDED 19,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
ITALY EXCEEDED 2,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
UKRAINE EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 17th NATION TO DO SO
MALAYSIA EXCEEDED 100,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 75th NATION TO DO SO
​

USA:
֍********* 19,111,326 *********֍
THE USA EXCEEDED 19 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C19-CASES ON THIS DAY
+194,174 daily cases, less than the Thursday before / +2,848 daily deaths (another "911")
At this rate of case growth, the USA will exceed 20 million total confirmed C19 cases on 2020-12-029
THE USA IS NOW 12,937 AWAY FROM 350,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS
AT THIS RATE OF +DAILY DEATHS, THE USA WILL EXCEED 350,000 C19 DEATHS ON 2020-12-029
​

INDIA:
֍ 10,147,468 ֍
+23,924 daily cases / +350 daily deaths
India is now 2,872 away from 150,000 total C19 deaths
At an average of +328 deaths per day, India will go over 200,000 total deaths on 2021-01-002​

BRAZIL:
******* 7,425,593 *******
+58,916 daily cases / +768 daily deaths
Average +daily cases & +daily deaths in Brazil have both more than DOUBLED over the last 6 weeks
Brazil is now 9,968 away from 200,000 total C19 deaths
At an average of +737 deaths per day, Brazil will go over 200,000 total deaths on 2021-01-006
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 25.96%
​

RUSSIA:
** 2,963,688 **
+29,935 daily cases / +635 daily deaths
At an average of +28,717 daily cases, Russia will very likely go over the 3-million mark on 2020-12-026
​

FRANCE:
** 2,527,509 **
+21,634 daily cases / +290 daily deaths​

UK:
** 2,188,587 **
+39,036 daily cases / +574 daily deaths​

TURKEY:
** 2,100,712 **
+18,102 daily cases / +254 daily deaths

​

ITALY:
** 2,009,317 **
+18,039 daily cases / +505 daily deaths
ITALY EXCEEDED 2,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
​

SPAIN:
* 1,869,610 *
+21,736 daily cases / +126 deaths
​

GERMANY:
* 1,614,326 *
+26,418 daily cases / +554 deaths

​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,571,680 *
+7,815 daily cases / +78 deaths
The positivity rate in Argentina is an enormous 34.18%
​

COLOMBIA:
* 1,559,766 *
+14,940 daily cases / +280 deaths
The positivity rate in Colombia is an enormous 20.11%
​