Trump and Biden

Well, in a little over four months, I could certainly be proven wrong. But we will see.

I have consistently criticized President Trump for electing to just fire up his base, and not attempt to expand it.

The polls--all that I have seen, anyway (including one from Fox News)--now show him considerably behind Joe Biden.

Of course, the popular vote throughout the nation is really inconsequential--as Donald Trump showed in 2016.

But the popular vote in certain swing states is very consequential.

And President Trump appears to be trailing--by a great deal--in these important swing states.

Will President Trump's fired-up base come out to vote, in enormous numbers, whereas those supporting Joe Biden will not do so, as their support is only lukewarm?

I am guessing that the Trump haters--and they are ubiquitous; just as his supporters are--will, indeed, show up in large numbers.

But my guess plus a dollar will get you a newspaper.

Anyway, we will soon see...

 

Fox News is now operated by the son of the founder and he is not really a conservative and so Fox News has steadily drifted leftward. It's moveing rather slowly so as not to alarm its viewership, but the ideological/political drift has finally become obvious.

These are exactly the same polling tactics that the collective political Left used to try and convince the nation that Hillary Clinton was guaranteed to be our president in 2016 and thus Trump supporters need not even try to vote. It didn't work then; not with all the corrupted polling companies and all of the DNC's politically allied media outlets swearing that Hillary was going to win by a landslide. It's not going to work now either. The end result, however, will be Fox News gradually losing more and more of its critical viewing base over time as it gradually becomes MSNBC's spiritual shadow.

 

Why does anyone believe these polls?

 

The polls are bent to tell the folks paying for them what they want to hear. Those interested in social engineering think they we all live in a high school popularity contest and we'll just vote for who we think everyone else is voting for.

Some of us do precisely that...

But not so many of us as they think, methinks.

Its also a preparatory tactic to dissuade and debunk suspicions of election fraud...

 

Hillary was reported to be 12 points ahead of Trump on 6/26/16. Nothing's changed. Well, except that Biden's dumber, though just as crooked, just not as successful at it.

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Biden's handlers won't allow him to appear at a debate with Trump, it would finish him, if he isn't already finished.

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Perhaps I am mistaken--I do not remember perfectly, here--but did those polls not show Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote (which is really irrelevant)?

And she did, of course--by almost three million votes--but President Hillary Clinton will go down in history right alongside President Al Gore...

 

If Trump wins PA he wins the Presidency.

In June 2016 JUN. 11-20 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Clinton +9

Polls generally show the GOP losing at this point in the race, then the race tightens after labor day, and by election day it's within a few points but the Democrat position is leading.

ABC News/Wash Post 6/17 - 6/20/05 Kerry +4

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Yes, Trump has made the mistake of not even trying to expand his base. It's relative the same size it was in 2016. The big difference is Trump won independents in 2016, it was independents that carried him to victory. Not only in the electoral college, but in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump won independents nationally over Hillary 46-42 with 12% voting third party, against both Trump and Hillary. In Michigan Trump won the independent vote 52-36 over Hillary, in Pennsylvania it was 48-41 Trump and in Wisconsin Trump won independents 50-40 which squeaking to wins in all three states by a few thousand votes each.

The problem this year is Trump is trailing Biden among independents 43-35 nationally. His 35% is 11 points lower than in 2016 while Biden is a single point higher than Hillary was. Concentrating on pleasing his base while ignoring independents, not attempting to expand his base of support is going to hurt him in his attempt at reelection. Biden isn't as disliked by independents as Hillary was either. 47% of independents view Biden unfavorably, 70% viewed Hillary unfavorably in 2016. Trump is seen unfavorably by 56% of independents today whereas 57% seen him unfavorably in 2016. Whereas Trump unfavorable's were 13 points lower among independents than Hillary's when he won in 2016, today his unfavorable's are 9 points higher than Biden's. I bring this up as history shows folks usually don't vote for someone they dislike and as of today, independents dislike Trump more than Biden. In 2016 it was the reverse, they disliked Hillary more than Trump.

The bottom line, the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties, Trump and company must win the independent vote or lose the election. As it stand now, Trump will lose the independent vote and lose the election in so doing.

 

What does that have to do with the polls?

You realize that not everything that happens and does not benefit Trump is NOT a worldwide conspiracy, right?

 

Hey! Here's an idea. Maybe Trump can re-hire Comey and have him announce some sort of "investigation" against Biden one week before the elections, like he did last time.

Though I don't think it's going to work this time because... everybody's expecting it.

 

A few easy questions...

1. Is Joe Biden a better candidate than Hillary Clinton? No

2. Has Trump lost most of the support that he had behind him in 2016? No

3. Is Trump currently trailing in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin? No

4. Is Minnesota out of Trump's reach in 2020? No

5. Will Evangelical voters sit out this election in large numbers? No

 

There are polls

and then there is how people vote at the moment of voting.



Who better to manage the Post Corona Virus economy?

"It's the economy, stupid", Bill Clinton​

Moi

Don't ize
​

 

Florida - Biden +9
N.C. - Biden +2
Ohio - Biden +1
Wisconsin - Biden +8
Minn. - Biden +16
Source RCP

 

Who cares if Biden is better than Hillary? What is relevant is that he's better than Trump.

Lots of it to coronavirus.

And Texas. According to Fox News poll.

The question is if Democrats are going to sit out this election in large numbers like they did last time.

Mind you, I think Trump is going to win. And we need to convince Democrats that he's going to win. Democrats tend to become complacent when they think it's in the bag. We must not allow that to happen. Any help we can get from you in accomplishing that will be greatly appreciated.

 

Still too much time till November.

 

FYI, on 26 Jun 2016 Hillary was up by 5.6 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

The big number or the more important number is there were 21% of the electorate stating they'd vote third party or were undecided. A fairly good size pool to pull from to make up that 5.6 point deficit without convincing a single Hillary supporter to jump her ship for the Trump train.

Today, Biden is up by 9.4 points, but more importantly the pool of those who say they'll vote third party or are undecided is much smaller at 11.4% of the electorate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

There's no realistic way Trump will win 83% of those 11.4% of voters. This year it is a must for Trump to convince quite a few of Biden supporters to switch allegiance from Biden to Trump. Something Trump didn't need to do in 2016 with that much larger pool to pull from.

I think we don't need to watch the horse race numbers so much, but pay attention to the pool of voters that are undecided or stating they'll vote third party. Whereas on 26 Jun 2016 you had 12.6% of the voters stating they'd vote third party, for Johnson or Stein which could be convince to change to Trump much easier than to switch to Hillary since Hillary represented the status quo or the in-power establishment. Third party voters are really dissatisfied with the status quo and the party in power. They may not care for the out of power party, but it's much easier to convince them when it comes to voting for the lesser of two evils or the least worst major party candidate that the out of power party, candidate is better than the status quo or in-power party you don't like and want to change.

This year we have but 4% stating they'll vote third party instead of 12.6%. The undecided so far is a rather small 7.4%. Trump now represents the in-power establishment and the status quo instead of Hillary. Bottom line, this election is all about Trump, not so much about Biden. A referendum on Trump. Whereas in 2016 it was a referendum on Obama and the Democrats along with Hillary who was campaigning as the third Obama term.

Unless we have some drastic changes to our current situation, Trump is going to lose and probably lose very large. Today, the trend and the numbers are stacked against "The Donald." This time in 2016, it was still a fairly even race when one considers the margin of error.

 

Florida Trump +7
N.C. Trump +6
Ohio Trump +8
Wisconsin Trump +4
Minnesota Trump - Biden even
Source 6-26 RDAD Internal Summary

 

1. Is Joe Biden a better candidate than Hillary Clinton? Probably not. But he isn't as disliked by independents as Hillary was. 70% of independents disliked Hillary, 57% disliked Trump in 2016. Thus Trump won the independent vote 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates. Today 47% of independents dislike Biden, 56% dislike Trump. 43% of independents say they'll vote for Biden, 35% for Trump. Remember the GOP is still the smaller of the two major parties which means Trump and company must win the independent vote or lose the election. The Democrats just have to come close, not win, but keep the independent vote close.

2. Has Trump lost most of the support that he had behind him in 2016? Not his base, but he has lost a lot of independents who voted for him as the lesser of two evils. The candidate they wanted to lose the least, not win, but lose the least. As of today, Biden is that candidate they want to lose the least, the lesser of two evils so to speak.

3. Is Trump currently trailing in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin? He's trailing in all four. Florida by 6,8, North Carolina by 2.4, Ohio by 2.7 and Florida by 6.8

4. Is Minnesota out of Trump's reach in 2020? Trump is trailing by 10.5

5. Will Evangelical voters sit out this election in large numbers? No, I agree with that.

 

RDAD???

 

I cannot find a flaw in your logic or in your numbers. But I still say Trump is favorite to win. We can't underestimate the power of a President with no scruples when it comes to cheating. The only way to overcome that would be a huge win. Almost unprecedented. But I can't trust the reliability of Democrats to show up when they are convinced that the Democrat is going to win. I think we must convince ourselves so we can convince others that there is a real clear chance that Biden could lose.

 

The coronavirus will decide this election. Thanks to our government's mismanagement, the US is the epicenter of the coronavirus, and we have a second wave already in the summer while other countries have seen a massive decline in cases and are opening up safety. We are also seeing 13% unemployment thanks to not being able to beat this virus after many months and negligible aid to businesses. Our initial response was also weak and we failed to lock things down early on and test people well. This is why Trump's support is crumbling. The only thing that can save Trump now is a vaccine.

 

How has Trump not tried to expand his base when he has done unprecedented outreach to black and Latino voters?

 

It's early, numbers today mean what they say today and not in November. I don't think you need to worry about Democrats showing up, the dislike to hate for them against Trump is too intense. Although they didn't show up in 2016, they did in 2018 for the midterms. Independents switched from going to Trump 46-42 in 2016 to voting for the Democratic congressional candidates 54-42 in 2018. That a plus 4 for Trump in 2016 and the GOP to a minus 12 in 2018. A swing of 16 points. I'm not worried about the Democratic turnout as I think Trump's turning off independents will more than make up if the Democrats don't show up as expected. I think they will.

Another important number is that 12% of independents voted third party, against both Trump and Hillary. Hillary was really disliked by independent, Biden isn't as disliked by a long shot by independents as Hillary was while Trump's dislike percentage has remained constant. I do agree, the Democrats better not become complacent. It's not the Democrats enthusiasm for Biden that will drive them to the polls, it's their hate for Trump, their anger at Trump. Anger is a motivational factor that outweighs all others. You seen it in 2018, but not in 2016. Democrats had only a 3 point party advantage in 2018, but a 4 point party advantage among those who voted in 2018. Compare that to 2016 when the Democrats had a 6 point advantage over the Republicans in 2016, but that 6 point advantage shrunk to 3 points among those who actually voted.

Another way to put that is in 2018 a higher percentage of Democrats turnout to vote than Republicans. Although in 2016, Republicans turned out in a much higher percentage than Democrats. I think anger and hate will drive Democrats to the polls overcoming the Republican enthusiasm to Trump. Also with independents wanting a return to normalcy, to saner times, wanting a president who acts presidential instead of like a five year old spoiled brat who throws temper tantrums and call other names, they'll support Biden over Trump who they really don't like much. I've been saying for over 3 years now that Trump's obnoxious and uncouth personality, his very unpresidential behavior along with his schoolyard bullying persona has been turning off independents. that independents won't support him like they did in 2016. 2018 is an example of that.

My two cents on the subject anyway.

 

As others here have pointed out polls mean just a thin hair above zero. At roughly the same time in 1988 HW Bush trailed Dukakis by almost 20 points. At the same time in 1992 Bill Clinton trailed both HW Bush and Ross Perot. The polls and the media were predicting a massive landslide victory for Hillary Clinton in 2016 right up to the morning of the election.