What Happened? How the Polls got Hillary's Defeat so Wrong.

National polls did not have Clinton leading by huge margins. Clinton had a 5 point lead in the RCP average 10 before the election, when Comey decided he had to torpedoed her chances by announcing he was reopening the email investigation. Polls had Trump leading at the end of July and Clinton with just a one point lead in mid September.

 

I agree that Comey was wrong in reopening the email investigation. Comey was wrong to exonerate Clinton to begin with. She should have never been the democrat nominee. But nevertheless, Clinton was so far ahead in the polls MOST of the time in the months leading up to the election which gave people the impression that she would win in a landslide.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

\

Comey's exoneration of Clinton was well within his discretion as AG, despite your partisan take.

His announcement of reopening the investigation just days before the election was a complete break with established rules and protocol designed to prevent unfair interference in an election.

Clinton was ahead most of the time, but so what? Peoples' attitudes change. That doesn't mean the polling is false.

 

Yes so what that basically proves is the leaked Emails and the Comey letter changed the course of the election from a clear Hillary victory to an election that within the margin of error was too close to call. Thanks for posting the before and after polls.

But it is fun to read the responses by people who obviously can't read and think the data shows polls don't work and are not accurate.

 

That 5.7 million number was debunked ages ago and is based on a deliberate missinterpretstion of what the Harvard study actually determined. This is what the Professors who conducted the Harvard study said as mentioned later in the article.

" On the other side are the professors who conducted the study and contended that “zero” noncitizens of about 18 million adults in the U.S. voted."

THe actual Harvard study is available online shoud you care to actually read it rather than quoting fake news from a Conservative fake news site quoting a fake Conservative think tank. If you actually read the study you will find that the 5.7 million number is what what the Harvard study said was the upper range of the number of ineligible voters listed on the voter roles in the United States most of whom were dead people or people listed on more than one voter role, or people whose addresses could not be verified etc,etc. The study did advocate for an effort to update and improve the accuracy of the voting lists.

 

nothing you posted supports you claim. try again.

 

none of that shows illegals voted.

 

No, the polls were not predicting an easy win. The polls showed Hillary's popular vote lead at only 1.5-3%. They showed Trump surging in the swing states and almost all the swing states were complete tossups and guessing from the slim margins it looked like a 272 - 266 victory for Hillary but those margins were slim and were basically tossups and polls can't take into account last minute surges or certain groups showing up to vote in stronger than expected numbers.

 

Comey wasn't AG, he was FBI Director. The AG, Lorretta Lynch recused herself because she met with Bill Clinton to plot how to get Hillary out of criminal prosecution for her crimes. The DOJ has the authority to decide who to prosecute, not the FBI Director. The decision belonged to the Assistant AG. Comey overstepped his bounds. (Which is probably exactly what Bill and Loretta had designed when they met on the tarmac in Arizona, that Comey would then make the decision not to prosecute). Comey was following Loretta Lynch's and Bill Clinton's orders.

The polls were off tremendously even the day of the election which is the point of the thread. It's a 50 state race, not a national popular vote.

 

The polls were inaccurate because of Comey. Got it. Good for Comey. He did wrong but it had the great outcome of preventing crooked Hillary Clinton from taking office as the first woman president who paid Russia for a fake dossier smearing President Donald Trump with the accusation that he colluded with Russia. It prevented the most corrupt politician from re-entering the White House after selling out her country by accepting bribes from Russia in exchange for 1/5th of America's uranium reserves.

 

We know the democrats are against securing the vote with voter ID laws. We know why. Take the dead voters, the double voters, the ineligible voters, the fraud voters and the legal and illegal alien voters away and they'll never win another election.

 

Millions of ineligible aliens vote. Let's see what the investigation turns up.

 

Except of course there is absolutly no evidence of any significant degree of illegal voting in the national election. But republicans never let facts interfere with their hidden agendas.

 

No you have a comprehension problem. Public opinion changed after the Russian leaks and the Comey memo. The polls were never wrong.

 

Got it. Crooked Hillary lost because of Comey and Russia, Russia, Russia.

But before that, the polls were way off. Even on the day of the election as I showed in the OP.

 

Actually you should read your own OP. The last set of polls were off by 2.1% which is in every poll I have ever read within the margin of error.

And by the way the release of the summary of polls the day of the election does not mean that the polls summarized were conducted the day of the election. In fact they were not, all they were was the last polls conducted before the election in those states.

 

Yup.

The National polls were spot on.

Analysts (like Silver, Sabato, etc.) underestimated the effect of late-breaking voters (which defied historical patterns and broke heavily for Trump).

 

Apparently you refuse to read the OP. Some of the polls were off by as much as 10% on the day of the election. THE POLLS WERE DEAD WRONG ON THE DAY OF THE ELECTION!

That is why everyone was predicting a Hillary landslide on the day of the election and why they thought she would win the election up until about 8pm EST on election night.

 

Actually no. You don't understand what the RealClear summary of polls was summarizing which was the last polls conducted before the election not polls condicted the day of the election. Here is the actual data used in the summary

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Pay particular attention to the three polls condicted on election day. You will note that of the three polls conducted on Nov 8 two predicted a Trump win.

And yes I did read the OP. Unfortunatly it appears that you must have have failed to actually understand the data you posted. My guess is you excerped it from a politically motivated source rather than going to the actual source of the original data .

 

That's fantastic. Except they weren't. they were horribly wrong. People didn't change their minds. The pollster just changed the results to save their reputations. The do the same every election. That much is predictable.

But this is not a National election, it's a 50 state election, because we are a republic, not a democracy. The national polls are irrelevant, and the results of the national elections are suspect because states like California are allowing illegal aliens to vote. The state by state elections were off even worse than the national polls. One of them was off by more than 10%.

 

Hillary got the most votes in the polls and the election.... affirmative action for the smaller states is why Trump still won with less votes

what does Trump think of those that win with less votes?

 

You should quit before you dig your hole even deeper.

 

No you don't understand how it works obviously. They push poll then delete the results they don't like in order to influence public opinion hoping that stupid people believe their polls and vote for the person they say is winning. The polls were wrong because they are designed that way to influence public opinion.

Sure they have to tighten them up the day before election day to save some of their credibility, but of course, they still ended up in Hillary's favor by 1.2%. The pollsters are a bunch of crooks and should have to be made accountable for their fake news polls.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

I think he thinks he did win with more votes. He understands that about 5 million illegal aliens voted for Hillary.