An idea to get Trump to resign without institutional crisis

Yes, but he might just do it to screw the Republicans. I predict that Trump in the weeks, months, and years to come, will turn progressively more and more against the Republicans. We saw how he didn't hesitate in throwing Pence under the bus, not to forget Mitch, Kemp, Barr, Loeffler and Perdue, etc. The Dems are already "the enemy" but Trump will see the Republicans as backstabbing traitors. He craves loyalty so he will see them as disloyal and will seek revenge (he is revengeful fellow). Disloyal traitors in his view are worse than the ones who were declared the enemies from the beginning.

 

LOL. My point is Trump is toast. He’s not going to be running for President again. The notion he is running again is the least likely scenario.

However, I believe there is value in talking and thinking through all these theories. My introduction of Trump running as a Democrat is partly intended to foster examination of why votes are cast for any politician. I heard many say they would vote for anyone who wasn’t Trump. To me that’s as logical/illogical as voting for him if he switched parties and populist policies. Many vote down ballot based on nothing more than tradition, peer influence, or a candidate’s perceived popularity. In such a world, what prevents my scenario from occurring?

 

A new party is an interesting thought. It would be a very small party. This premise that Trump voters are the equivalent of Trumpers (or whatever the current favorite term is) is a false premise. The vast majority of past Trump voters will not vote for him on a Republican ticket or a new MAGA ticket.

 

Well, I don't mean he would do I what I suggest out of calculation. I think it would be all pure, knee-jerk reaction to such a situation - basically the same way it is with every situation he confronts. It just turns out that throwing tantrums scores points for him with a good half of the Republican electorate. What an amazing life experience this guy has had - he's the most consequential case of arrested development in American history. He basically stopped developing at age 8, and like a badly socialized person at that age he acts out to get whatever he wants, and he's lived his whole life that way and he got everything he ever wanted (supposedly).

 

My bad. I should have read to the end of your post. And in gratitude for your service, during this pandemic, I'll play your game; if it's the way you like to relax, you've earned some fantasy-time.

So change my vote. IF the Senate HAD 17 Republican members who were actually willing to convict Trump, and this meeting took place so that NO ONE else was even aware of it (including their fellow-Senators), so they could all, including Trump, be sure that it would never get out-- maybe if they all hid in Trump's bedroom until he was about to go to sleep-- AND they could GUARANTEE a Pence pardon (which I think is unlikely, nevertheless more likely than either of the previous stipulations), I DO believe Trump would take the deal. How could he not? His choice would be guaranteed impeachment w/ no political future, or full pardon & guarantee of no future impeachment (for events that have, to this point, transpired). That's a no-brainer.

I did change your OP, with the guaranteed pardon, as opposed to their just talking to Pence about it, but it seemed that would be an odd place for you to want to make a stand, as far as scenario-credibility, so I figured you'd let it slide. But tell me if you'd like me to answer, on the situation without that final guarantee.
DEF.

 

I'm not sure about "vast majority" but I believe that he wouldn't win, running with the Republicans or 3rd party, so yes, he is toast.

 

Yes, I'm cool with the guaranteed Pence pardon. Maybe Pence in this scenario would come along with the 17 Republican senators and confirm that he would do that. I think Trump would yell and scream and call them RINOs and traitors and threaten to destroy their political careers, and then the next day would capitulate and take the deal, especially if the 17 senators + Pence remained firm and meaning business, saying to him that they would indeed convict if he didn't take the deal and they weren't bluffing.

This is like a plea deal... if the perp knows that it is inevitable that he will face hard time without a deal, he'll take the deal even if it is not the most palatable one.

Trump is very narcissistic but he takes deals to save face. For example, the plaintiffs against Trump University; he settled out of court to avoid (part of) the negative publicity.

 

From the time you suggested that Pence might go along-- since I still had my hide in the President's bedroom scenario, in my head-- I have been seeing Pence's upper half, popping out of a linen & blanket chest, at the foot of Trump's bed, like a Jack-in-the-Box; it won't stop. I hope it doesn't give me nightmares.

 

I get your point about poking the hornet's nest. I am also split on this, because one part of me feels that if we want to heal the nation, we can't make scapegoats of Trump voters.

On the other hand, I feel that, for once, Trump (not his voters) needs to be punished. He needs to feels the consequences of his actions. For his whole life, his dad's money has shielded him from feeling those consequences. For example, he defrauded students of his university. What did he get? A slap on the wrist through a measly fine. That's exactly why we are in this sad position today. He has learned that he can get away with even the most egregious unethical and borderline criminal behavior. The cowardice of the GOP Senators to remove him from office has reinforced this belief.

Now, it is time that he faces the music. He has gone too far. Future presidents have to see that such behavior will not go unpunished, just because we cannot hurt his voters' feelings.

 

Some more on the legality of it:

What are the basics of disqualification?

• Article I, Section 3 of the Constitution says: “Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.”
• The Constitution does not specify whether disqualification requires a two-thirds Senate vote, as conviction in an impeachment trial does, or only a majority vote. The Senate has previously used a majority vote.
• The Senate has barred three people, all federal judges, from holding future office: West Humphreys (in 1862, for waging war against the U.S.), Robert Archbald (in 1913, for corruption) and Thomas Porteous (in 2010, for bribery and perjury).
• The Senate has tried a former War Department secretary — William Belknap, in 1876 — after he resigned. Both the House and the Senate decided that Belknap could be tried after he had left office.
• Disqualifying a president from future office, because of the stakes and lack of precedent, would probably come before the Supreme Court. History suggests that the court would be more likely to uphold a bipartisan congressional vote than a largely partisan one.
• For more: “If an impeachment begins when an individual is in office, the process may surely continue after they resign or otherwise depart,” Michael Gerhardt of the University of North Carolina School of Law writes in the online publication Just Security.

 

I agree with you. My point is that someone needs to take the high road and try to do what is best for the country for the long term

 

No.

 

There has to be a point where politics have to be discarded and justice, when it is supremely important, given we are talking about the presidency, has to reign supreme over all other considerations.

Why? Because the world, and history, is watching, and the national political dynamics are no match.

 

You are saying both sides are the same. That classic cynicism, and though the other characterizations may be incorrect, that one is correct. No one is saying a particular side is without faults, that is not the point. But one side is definitely on the wrong side of history with the election, and support, of a demagogue. There is no equivalent on the democrat side, to the election of Donald Trump.

There just isn't.



Sorry.

 

Pence knows the importance of rule of law, despite his being a Trump sycophant. He proved that on January 6th. He must have seen what was coming.

He must therefore understand the political dynamic of pardoning Trump. It would assure pariah status in terms of history. He's already lost his favor with Trump's base, so, therefore, that, being the only incentive to pardon, having been removed, there is no logical reason he would pardon Trump, if Trump resigned. But, since Trump is not going to resign, ( because if he resigned, how could he run again? ) it's a moot point.

Trump did the video because he was told he would definitely be in serious legal jeopardy if he didn't. That incentive is not present for resigning, therefore, the 'if' comparison doesn't work.

 

Do you know anyone personally who voted for Trump? If so, were any of them at the Capitol demonstration/riot? Do you think any of them wish they had been?

This forum has taught me a lot about the differences between “coast” Republicans and “heartland” Republicans. I won’t lie, I didn’t realize how different they are, even though the signs were there.

So I can’t speak to “coast” Republicans, but I’m pretty familiar with “heartland” Republicans. And I can assure you what happened at the Capitol isn’t approved of by the Republicans I’m familiar with.

I don’t know how to make this point tactfully, so I won’t try too hard. What you saw at the Capitol was a cheap imitation of what we’ve been seeing with demonstrations and riots for the last few years. This last week’s events didn’t happen in a vacuum and the idea to invade the Capitol wasn’t a brilliant, original thought. It’s an old play we’ve seen over and over. Like my preceding analogy, these rioters are on the same ride as all the rioters we’ve been dealing with to date. It just took a little more urging to get this week’s rioters to ride in the front seats. But eventually they saw it was acceptable to enjoy the ride from the front seats.

Now, heartland Trump voters (and others I assume) that voted for him as the lesser of evils or on policy like trade, appeasement, and the Second Amendment are not even the demonstration type, let alone rioters. But they believe in the Republic, the Constitution, and Federalism. And if they keep getting the blame for cops shooting people, nuts “storming” the Capitol, and every other real or perceived problem this country faces, patience will wear thin. These people don’t wave flags, break into buildings, and dress up in costumes if you know what I mean.

It’s become politically expedient to incite violence and discontent and use the resultant mayhem as justification for erosion of freedoms. This tit for tat game where game pieces are easily manipulated fools and the game board is small seems harmless, especially when those you’ve been told to hate are getting the worst of it. Someday it won’t be a game anymore and the adults will have to clean up the mess. Nobody will like that because everyone will be getting the worst of it. Never has a society taken this path without consequence.

Those that really do oppose violence, I implore you to get off this ride. You don’t want to be on it when it’s no longer profitable to the operators.

 

Both sides are being used in the same game. Pointing that fact out is not cynicism, it’s realism, as I stated. Both sides are engaging in demagoguery. You can’t see it because you are in the front seat, waving your arms and screaming.

This isn’t a scored game where one side “wins” because it’s slightly less “bad” today. There doesn’t have to be exact equivalency today for my position to be reality.

I understand how you feel. Like I said, it takes courage to get off the ride. Ten years ago I would have sounded just like you.

 

I'm thinking of additional ways to think of this. Here is a very attractive excuse for Trump to use if he resigned under this deal (he would know that there wouldn't be a conviction in the Senate given that he took the deal): "The nasty Democrats are trying to impeach me which they can do with their puny majority (which we will by the way reverse in 2022) and they hope to convict me and strip me of my political rights so that I can't run and win in 2024. So, being the stable genius that I am, I'm taking pre-emptive action that will defeat their plan: I'm resigning just a few days before the end of my term (big deal...) and with this, I'm taking the wind off their sail, and there will be no appetite whatsoever for the Senate to convict me, given that it's a moot point; how will the nasty Dems manage to prevent me from running in 2024? So, my dear followers, bear with me; a few days away through this bogus resignation, and then, up and go, launching the 2024 campaign, laughing all the way at the Dem's pathetic attempt that I so cleverly defeated."

That's a way to resign and save face... and still run in 2024.

Anyway, you do understand that these are just hypotheticals I'm exploring for fun, right? As a matter of fact I don't expect a resignation to happen.

 

Again, excellent post, especially the paragraph before last.

Yes, I have a number of Republican friends, with whom I relate very well because as I've mentioned, my ideological position can be described as center-right with a large number of conservative views, contrary to what some people here think, just because I vehemently oppose Trump (newsflash for them; not needed for you: Anti-Trump =/= Leftie). Every single one of my friends was horrified at the events on Wednesday, and many said that they now regret that they voted for Trump. I do not know any crazy extreme-right Trump fanatic / conspiracy theorist QAnon type, failed actor Mom's basement dweller, like Horn Boy (these characteristics, I'm not making up; these ARE his characteristics, and presumably those of others like him), for the simple fact that between those types and my circle of friends there is a HUGE abysm in education, wisdom, civility, intelligence, and wealth, therefore we don't frequent the same circles, and it would be extremely odd if I befriended a nutjob like that one.

So, no, I don't know THAT kind of Trump follower... the Trump followers I do know for the most part are respectable people who want what is best for the country and do not want our democratic traditions destroyed. That's one of the reasons why Trump has shot himself in the foot, and has experienced a drop in popularity, making it virtually impossible that he will pull off a 2024 comeback victory. Again, like in the November general elections, the person who defeated Trump is one Donald J. Trump. These wounds are self-inflicted. He has alienated, on Wednesday, most decent Americans, as shown in a poll I saw (sorry, I didn't retain the link), that 83% of Americans were horrified at the Wednesday events.

 

My friend, we don’t see this thing much differently. In fact on consequences for Trump I’m in agreement.

Where we diverge is lumping “his voters” in with rioters and nuts. For years I kept hearing the claims Democrats don’t equal Antifa or “pigs in a blanket, fry ‘em like bacon”. And I agree with that. And I can assure you the Capitol rioters do not equal Trump voters. Do what you want with Trump. But holding all voters responsible for his actions is not a valid position. It’s neither here nor there, but if the DNC hadn’t run the worst possible candidate in the 2016 general election, Trump never would have been president.

So again, do with Trump what you will. Just be consistent in the professed belief that rioters are responsible for their behavior, not other people who happened to vote for the same candidate.

Thanks for your response, you know I value your opinions.

 

Regardless...you so called "heartland Trump voters" need to accept responsibility for your mistakes...
instead of making excuses to minimize your own contribution to the problem.
How about you and your innocent "heartland" voters take a good look at your own voting criteria...
because right now it sucks.
Instead of spouting off about everyone but yourself...look in the mirror...
"patience is wearing thin" because you are part of the problem...
until you can admit that fact...you can't be part of the solution.

 

How am I part of the problem? What mistakes were made? Be specific.

What specific voting criteria suck?

 

Did you vote for tRump? Did your "heartland tRump voters" vote for tRump??
Your vote counted...did it not? Was it a mistake to vote for tRump? Or are you pleased with your decision?
Did you/they make a mistake by voting for the tRump?
Or do you/they completely deny any responsibility for him being in a position of power?

By what criteria did you cast your vote for tRump?
557 said: "heartland Trump voters (and others I assume) that voted for him as the lesser of evils or on policy like trade, appeasement, and the Second Amendment"
The "lesser of two evils"....that is what decides your vote???
How is that non-sense working for you??

 

Before Congress can lay any consequences, there must me a "judgement" - that is, he must be found guilty by 2/3 of the senate.

Else, as Trump has already been impeached, there need be no further impeachment for congress to vote on removing his pension, etc.