The Dawn of the Clone Wars

Its not an appeal to stupidity. Its a citation of a particular cultural quirk in middle eastern militaries. Its LITERALLY a defined term called "Baksheesh". You bribe your commander for good duties or to get out of bad ones or to get the best recruits for your unit instead of another or get better equipment etc. Another part of that is you generally cut corners and steal/sell **** like replacement parts etc to provide the quid that makes up the Baksheesh.
I guarantee you, that's user error.

 

It really doesn't matter what level someone might claim Iran to be, but I haven't see any evidence that Russia is all that advanced in drone technology. Indeed, they have relied on Israel for some of their technological advances in this field, while they have also been in contact with Iran in this regard as well.
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/08/29/2086050/russia-eager-to-buy-iranian-drones-general
Russia Eager to Buy Iranian Drones: General
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – An Iranian military official said Russia is interested in purchasing Iran’s homegrown drones.

 

Military technology never stops advancing

 

Never mind the Saudis. The US has a ring of radar and air defense systems in the area, with major bases in Bahrain and Qatar. Yet, they haven't been able to produce any evidence to show they had a clue what happened. Nothing was detected by them, even though the debris of the missiles and drones show that there were such missiles and drones used.

 

So if a drone fails to return home it is not a drone ?

Regardless - there is more to a drone than the ability to return home.

 

While I ordinarily wouldn't want to cite a source known to work for Israeli intelligence, this report should make people realize why the kind of cruise missile used against the Saudi installations, which IMO were fired from Yemen and not Iran or anywhere else, wouldn't be something that any US air defense system would be able to pick up. And that has nothing to do with any 'user error' by the Saudis.

https://www.debka.com/neither-israel-or-us-has-the-capacity-to-counter-irans-new-cruise-missile/
Neither Israel nor US has the capacity to counter Iran’s new cruise missile

 

You are misunderstanding the "appeal to stupidity" fallacy in play here.

I agree that systemic corruption and ineptitude exists within the Saud Military. What I disagree with is the claim that this was necessarily the cause of the failure of the Sauds to intercept the drones/missiles that were fired ... and certainly not defacto the cause as you inferred.

 

I was speaking in relation to both drones and missile technology .. It may well be that Iran has made some advancements in this area that are desirable - and they must have if Russia is wanting to buy some. This however is a small slice of a bigger picture.

 

Good point ... and an interesting path to follow. Would the drones have passed in range of US air defenses ?

 

Yes, but refer to my post #81 to see why that is the case.

 

I had edited the previous post to ask "would the drones/missiles been in range of the US air defenses being operated by US personnel

 

My point is that they are designed to go undetected by US air defense systems and radar. While the missiles might or might not have been in range of US air defenses depending on their flight pattern and from where they were fired (generally around 200 km for THAAD), if they were detectable, they would have been detected by US surveillance and radar systems regardless.

 

you guys overblown drone threat. drone is just another long range slow moving target, its slower than fighter jet and easy to detect/track if its not a stealth drone. also easier to jam. you can't expect any military on full alert 24/7 when not in war situation. Saudi probably just didn't think the rebel has that kind drone and ppl on the ground operating air defense probably was not in full alert mode. also they didn't expect the drone lunch from north, their geolocation also give them less response time.

 

It is a drone that didn't return home.

Of course, but missiles don't return home.

 

The Houthis have used drones to hit many well guarded Saudi installations, including airports and other oil installations in the past. They have also used drone boats to hit state-of-the art Saudi frigates. This attack was distinguishable mainly because it involved a more complicated and sophisticated attack, involving a combination of drones and cruise missiles that hit with pin point accuracy rather critical installations in the facilities that were attacked.

 

And the got that equipment where?

 

The Houthis have different weapon systems, from different origins and they do manufacture or assemble some equipment themselves as well. Past UN investigation of their cruise missiles and drones, however, suggest they are assembled from kits and components of Iranian origin. Where they get them, isn't clear.

The video below shows a different type of drone, i.e. a 'drone boat' as opposed to a UAV, hitting a Saudi frigate. The US, of course, blamed Iran for the attack at the time, although the US navy only said it was 'likely Iranian'. The more the US blames Iran, of course, the less effective the naval blockade imposed by Yemen by 'coalition forces' appears to be!


https://news.usni.org/2017/02/20/navy-saudi-frigate-attacked-unmanned-bomb-boat-likely-iranian
Navy: Saudi Frigate Attacked by Unmanned Bomb Boat, Likely Iranian

 

Where they get Iranian kits isn't clear? Did they buy them from Paraguay?

 

There are literally dozens of militia and other forces all over the region which Iran admits arming, including specifically Hezbollah in Lebanon and various Iraqi militia under the PMU umbrella. They could be getting them from them, or even from the black market. Just because the origin of a system is traced to some country doesn't mean that country is necessarily supplying them with the weapon.

 

drone attack is not new, however against well equipped air defense is much harder. Saudi may have some the highest military budget but i'm not sure about their training and their air defense layer. for example Israel has been very successful to intercept missile from gaza, which has much less response time, lower altitude, typically smaller than drone and fly faster.

also even US destroyer was dmg by terrorist when they are not watching, but it doesn't mean drone and such will be the ace in modern combat against well equipped foes. Saudi is pretty big, it can't cover all its pipeline etc.

 

This is another Houthi attack on Saudi oil installations in June.

 

Watch the video I posted and do a simple google search and you will find the reports you need on Houthi attacks on Saudi installations.
As for Israel being 'successful' against what you mention, that isn't true and, besides, its apples and oranges. The cruise missile used in the last Houthi attack, and the drones involved, are not comparable to the rockets Hamas fires at Israel. Iran has plenty of stealth drone systems designed to avoid detection and Iran's cruise missile aren't detectable by any country on earth.

https://www.jta.org/2019/05/07/isra...-dead-israelis-is-the-iron-dome-getting-worse
ISRAEL
700 rockets, 240 intercepts, 4 dead Israelis: Is the Iron Dome getting worse?
BY SAM SOKOL MAY 7, 2019 2:46 PM

 

This was also in June this year.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019...a-abha-airport-wounds-26-190612090351880.html
Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia's Abha airport wounds 26
Saudi-led coalition says missile struck arrivals hall of airport in town of Abha in kingdom's southwest.

 

the only difference between rocket fired by hama vs drone/cruise missile are the sophistication of guidance and rocket motor(better range). for defender Israel or Saudi, as long they pay attention to detect/track, then its easier to intercept cruise missile or drone compare to smaller, fast moving target like rocket/missile. I think Saudi probably fall sleep or something and got sucker punched. modern radar can easily detect slow moving drone, especially in high altitude. furthermore in real war situation, the area of interest will be Jammed by EW etc, which make remote control drone useless.

 

https://www.debka.com/neither-israel-or-us-has-the-capacity-to-counter-irans-new-cruise-missile/
Neither Israel nor US has the capacity to counter Iran’s new cruise missile