The Dawn of the Clone Wars

I am confident in my culture and civilization and am not going to be bothered by your hurling such terms. Especially when your double-standard is clear: you feel that a phrase that is preceded by the US/Israel going to war against Iran, and a description of what happen as a consequence of a war they will have actually started, points the finger of blame at anyone but those who would have started the war.

The only people who boast of wiping 'whole nations' off the map are those Israeli and pro Israeli mouthpieces who boast about using the weapons that are meant for that purpose. Israel is a state; an implanted one to be sure; but it is not a nation. Wiping Israel off the map is not about wiping its people off the map. I do wish Iran had the means to deter any notion by Israel to wipe our people off the map, but for now, what Iran has (unless it has things none of us know about) is merely the capacity to wipe out Israel's government and its supporting institutions and to collapse its superstructure. In other words, to wipe the state of Israel off the geopolitical map.

The forces aren't "uindentified": they even try to 'boast' being the only ones killing "Iranians". Alas, as with everything else with Israel, much (not all) of it is pure propaganda. The Israeli attacks against so-called "Iranian"/"pro Iran" bases in Syria and Iraq you allude to do take place; most don't make even a dent in anything. Of course, and to be sure, Israel has been working diligently to drag the US in a fight with Iran and knows that best way to do so is for it to start something with Iran and have the Americans come in and finish it for them. That (dragging the US in a fight with Iran) has been pretty much the entire Israeli policy for the past 15+ years.

 

One thing I should add: ultimately, for Iran, taking care of the Israeli issue falls within the portfolio of Hezbollah, and other pro Iran militias in Syria and Iraq, with the guidance and assistance of Iran's Quds force. As long as Israel observes its limits, and knows the lines not to cross, Iran as a whole has bigger fish to fry.

p.s.
https://news.yahoo.com/shadowy-iran-commander-gives-interview-2006-israel-hezbollah-201134720.html
Shadowy Iran commander gives interview on 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war
AFP•October 1, 2019

 

I agree that the Iron dome is pretty good but - it is not 90% and the targets are the easiest possible targets.

1) slow moving rockets - essentially hyped up fireworks that travel a completely predictable parabolic path
2) sensors everywhere that can tell when a rocket is launched.

A cruise missiles - or as we saw in Saudi Arabia - a drone - is a completely different subject ... something the dome has never been tested against.

Sounds like you are suggesting a nuclear strike by the US on Iran. Not saying this isn't possible but, highly unlikely. We would use conventional force .. this would pad the pockets of the international financiers that run this nation - which is the objective of our foreign policy to begin with.

Israel ? that is a different story .. they have nukes as well .. Should Israel be hit to hard .. they might just use one. Crazy stuff this is.

 

I never said anything about nuclear weapons.
No nation should ever use them. Certainly not against Iran.
Japan was loosing ww2 to US without the nukes. They just terminated the war quickly with much less deth.
US, if provoked could decimate Iran, just like it did Iraq.
As for iron dome, it is not designed for drones and even if it could it would not be cost effective.
The issue is, Israel is not Saudia. Attacking civilian facilities in Israel will trigger huge retaliation in Iran itself and the Iranian regime cannt afford to show the people how much it is useless when real damage is inflicted.

 

Without nukes, Israel does not have the capability to do much of anything against Iran except to start a war for the US to finish. That is understood by anyone with a clue about the subject.

 

I should add that the Israelis, after all their claims of driving Iran out the regions in Syria bordering Israel, are now publicly admitting that their "air power" hasn't accomplished the job! While the real reason for Israel to signal that it is planning a land incursion into Syria, is because they are getting desperate and hoping they will find a trigger that will bring a war between Iran and the US (something they have been plotting for some time), the fact that once their "coalition government" has been formed, they plan to invade the border regions in Syria for this purpose, should be telling enough. When confronting Iranian trained forces, Israel couldn't even defeat a much smaller Hezbollah force defending a town sitting right on their border, namely Bint Jbeil. For all their air superiority over Syria, with the Russians actively working with the Israeli to remove so-called Iranian bases and militia from the region near Israel, they haven't been able to even make a dent in Iran's ability to build up allied forces right next door to Israel. The idea that the Israelis have anything else, other than the US (or nukes) to fight Iran (who forces are all pretty much out of range of anything Israel has except a small number of planes that can be used in a surprise attack) is a silly joke. The only reason anyone takes this joke seriously is because it is clearly understood that if Iran does hit Israel hard, the US will have to enter the fight on behalf of Israel. That limits Iran's ability to respond to some of what Israel does, but at the end, if Israel is determined enough to start a fight, they will get one.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-opens-a-second-front-along-israels-border-11570056375
Iran Opens a Second Front Along Israel’s Border
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies control Syrian land near the Golan Heights.

 

I don't see Iran attacking Israel .. Sans some extreme event like the US attacking Iran.

 

Unlike anybody else in the middle east, Israel have been very careful to use only its forces in its conflicts. There is no way Israel is going to drag USA into a conflict.
However, the issue with Iran is not an Israeli conflict. Israel is a very small part of it, a loud one, but minor. The conflict here is between Islamic Shia faction (Iran and friends) and Islamic Suni faction (the rest of the ME).
Iran is taking over all the ME. It has taken over Lebanon through Hizbulla, it has taken over much of Syria through the civil war, it it taking over Yeman through another civil war and it has taken over most of Iraq due to American idiocity.
Much greater forces needs to take care of Iran than Israel, alas EU is an impotent banch of idiots, the US is ruled by a president who will not do it.
So Israel needs to protect its borders and drive Iran proxies futher alone.
Israel will be very dumb to invade Syria.
Why should it get involved in an internal Islamic conflict?
I also do not see any political talk in Israel reflecting such an idea. Not in the main political parties nor even at tge far right parties.

 

I am not sure.
It looks like Iran tries to put some pressure back on the USA to ease the sanctions.
They are escalating theirs attacks.
The last one was on major Saudi interest and was designed also to hard global economy.
Still it did not make a dent.
So what is the next escelation?
Maybe the only lavarage the Iranian got now is attacking Israel.

 

The most ridiculous comment I have read. Israel uses its "own forces" when those forces are strong enough to deal with a problem. It uses the US to take care of the rest, asking the US to basically set up the geopolitical map and landscape in the region to favor it. You need to educate yourself a lot more on these subjects, reading less from the propaganda script for the average masses and more from (if nothing else) at least articles and works produced for the more educated people in Israel and the US. You can start on this issue reading what is basically an Israeli/American insider account:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/magazine/iran-strike-israel-america.html
FEATURE

In the meantime, don't imagine that the US established a permanent military base in Israel itself because the Israelis don't have people to operate these systems. Like the other temporary deployments and temporary bases in Israel, the whole thing began as a signal of America's 'commitment' to defend Israel. A commitment, frankly, that didn't need these actions as it evident from "electoral politics" (the euphemism in the NYT Magazine feature article as to why a war between Iran and Israel would inevitably drag the US into the conflict as well) in the US. The real purpose is to make it clear that any attack on Israel will be an attack on the US, meaning war with the US. (The problem US faces, however, is that the threat of war with the US is itself not going to be enough, especially when it comes to carefully calibrated moves that are unlikely to justify costly war for the US) to cow Iran to submit to the US and its current campaign against Iran).

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-us-establishes-permanent-military-base-in-israel/

That is also the same real reason why the US is sending a token force to Saudi Arabia.

All of what you have been told on the subject is a propaganda narrative. The real genesis of the who 'sectarian wars' you allude to is found in this article before those wars really started!

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
The Redirection

The US, as everyone else with a clue, faces the problem of wanting to make Iran submit to agendas meant to bring about the Israeli driven agenda of seeing Iran "implode", without taking things to the point which will start a war that no one really wants. It is a game of chicken. One one side, in Iran, those who believe the US is the one that will blink because it has no real reason (the propaganda aside) to wage a costly war of choice in pursuit of its imperialistic (and Israeli inspired) agenda. On the other side, are American hawks (and Israelis) who claim it will be Iran which will blink and that Iran will never really lash out given the fact that the US/Israel ultimately have nuclear weapons. Otherwise, if Iran shows it really won't blink, no one (not even the Israelis) would be pushing for war with Iran. And don't underestimate the important role the Europeans play in this equation: they basically subsidize the voices in Iran who want Iran to blink!
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/03/middleeast/iran-war-games-kiley-intl/index.html
Any war between the US and Iran would be a catastrophe. And no one could win it

Maybe it will be dumb, but that is what Israel has been signalling. What is clear is that Israel is planning to ratchet up its actions to trigger a war as they are finding out that even Trump (who they thought would be idiotic enough to jump at their calls to wage war on Iran) is blinking.

 

The attack on Saudi Arabia was by the Houthi's .. albeit aided by Iran's weapons. It is not some secret that Iran has been on the side of the Houthi's throughout the war in Yemen. This has little to do with Israel - other than the normal concern about strife in the region .. which has been the norm for decades.

There are few rational individuals - with any informed objective opinion on the war in Yemen - who do not think the Saudi's had it coming.
The Houthi's represent a large chunk of the people in Yemen - and they have every right to fight for their country against an invading army.

The Houthi's are not running around the globe doing random terrorist acts - (Like the groups that Saudi Arabia have been arming and supporting for decades). They are fighting a war for their freedom - from Saudi Arabian style Strict Sharia Salafi Islamist extremism.

Saudi Arabia is doing a heck of a lot more to Yemen than a few drones and missiles. They have been waging full on war - in which they have been accused of countless war crimes and humanitarian atrocities. They are also guilty of Crimes against humanity for the blockade which has caused mass famine and epidemics such as cholora.

It is not like the Houthi's are anything great or wonderful - but, the idea that Saudi Arabia are the 'good guys" in this battle .. is complete nonsense.

The actions of Saudi Arabia have been so obscene that congress voted to stop shipping arms to our allies in this war. Trump had to use his veto.

Sure we are all concerned about actions which can effect global oil markets - but - there are a whole lot of people in this nation - and in the world - (ones who have a clue what is happening and not the spoon fed propaganda narrative) who have a bit of sympathy for this underdog ... a little "Go Houthi's" Further .. the sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have also affected the global oil markets.

So what side are you on ... Al Qaeda/ Saudi Arabia - and friends ... or the Houthi's ? and what does this have to do with Israel ?

Iran has never attacked Israel - not even back in the day when numerous other ME countries were taking a shot at Israel.

Things have obviously gone down hill in recent decades but they have never come to direct blows .. except when Israel bombed an Iranian nuclear facility.

Iran is doing deals with China and Russia - Oil is being moved to and through these nations which allows Iran to get around at least part of the sanctions. Stuff is also going on with Iraq and obviously Syria.

 

What are you talking about? Israel has never bombed any Iranian nuclear facility. They have threatened to do so a zillion times, to drag the US to take action against Iran, but they have never done anything of the sort.

1- China buys some Iranian oil but has drastically cut its imports. The Russians don't do anything useful, except at the UN, and even there, not consistently.
2- The 'stuff' going on in Iraq is the Saudis/US/Israelis trying to isolate Iranian militia forces from within and take shots at them from without. In Syria, the Israeli and the Russians have the lead to remove pro Iranian forces from that country.

 

I thought Israel had attacked a facility once ... perhaps that was in Syria .. OK .. then the two have never come to blows -which was the main point I was making.

Iraq is still buying Iranian gas ... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/15/reu...ort-iranian-energy-for-three-more-months.html
UPDATE 2-U.S. allows Iraq to import Iranian energy for three more months

We will see how much longer that lasts.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...ran-discuss-investment-projects-idUSKCN1VN1PK

Not sure how you can't look at stuff like the above - as doing something positive for Iran

 

Yeah, but that mistake is actually significant. If Israel ever directly attacks Iran without the region blowing into pieces, with Israel in rubble and ruins itself, it.will be checkmate for Iran. And that is the main argument from the neocon faction: that Iran will blink and the US/Israel should hit it and prove the point.

I don't want to reveal too much, but trust me: Iranian oil and gas transactions and negotiations is something I know very well, from personal, first hand experience.

Good or bad isn't the point for me. The truth is. And the truth isn't what you may imagine. Iran and Russia can discuss energy projects and investments till the cows come home, but nothing comes out of those "discussions" that is real. I know. The attitude of Russian companies when it comes to US sanctions against Iran isn't at all any different than European companies.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-due-to-threat-of-u-s-sanctions-idUSKCN1IU1M7
Lukoil puts Iran plans on hold due to threat of U.S. sanctions

The bigger truth is that Russia's attitude towards Iran isn't one you will find from an ally but more what you would find in a rival. Iran, which is surrounded by enemies, simply doesn't have the leverage to do much about what the Russians are also doing in concert with the Israelis. But, unfortunately, it is very clear to Iran despite the 'diplomatic niceties": the Russians can't be trusted.

 

I will take your word for it .. Sucks to be Iran right now.

 

As some neocons are fond of saying, using the poker analogy, Iran plays a weak hand very well.

To be sure, Iran's hand isn't quite as "weak" as the neocons want people to believe. But, overall, given the array forces lined up against it, it is the weakest hand of all.

Still, the poker analogy fails in one sense. In this game, if everyone's bluff is called but no one folds, and the cards are eventually laid on the table, none of those playing will win. They all lose.

In the meantime, here is a developing story. Indications are she will be released and sent back home after her hearing today. But while she is accused of spying for Israel, increasingly, it is difficult to tell if someone is spying for Israel or for Russia (or both).

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019...ow-summons-iranian-envoy-191004133931554.html
Iran arrests Russian journalist, Moscow summons Iranian envoy
Court to rule on Saturday whether to let go or press charges against Yulia Yuzik, who is accused of spying for Israel.

 

Ye ye, the good old antiscemitic 'jews run the world' bullshiet.
The US is persuing US interests. Sadly Iran have been chanting 'death to the US' for the last 40 years.
You failed to provide any proof for your claims. Some articles from useful idiots in the NYT is not proof.
Is there a defense treaty between Israel and the US? No.
Hell, Israel is not even member of Nato.
Had American troups been involved in any of Israel wars? And they had plenty? No.
Actually, it was the russians who were involved on the other side, but still US was not involved.
All you have is some conspiracy theory and antiscemitic notions.

I guess this is the excuse Iran is giving for getting involved in places it does not belong.
Well, continue spending money down the drain on proxy wars rather than taking care of you prople.

 

As always, you don't read -- because if you did, you would see top Israeli leaders (people you would know) saying what I have said using slightly different language. Quoted by the NYT magazine. And those quotes have never been disputed. Besides, the NYT is anything but 'antisemitic"!!

As for Iran's situation, it is not as bad you imagine. Iran's stock market is roaring while the value of Iran's currency has rebounded significantly the past several months.
https://www.ft.com/content/62c734d6-e5ae-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc
Iran’s stock market outstrips global rivals
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...l-rebounds-despite-tightening-trump-sanctions
Iran's Rial Rebounds Despite Tightening Trump Sanctions
Bloomberg-4 Oct 2019
Iran's currency has appreciated 40% in the past year, the country's central bank governor said, recovering from historic lows reached after the ...


In the meantime, this article ends with a note that you can hear many Israeli say these days. And the reason they are saying this is precisely because the US did NOT jump at the opportunity to wage on Iran, even during Trump's watch, as they had hoped.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/or...an-war-general-soleimani-saudia-us-trump.html
ISRAEL PULSE
Israel worried Iran might attack soon
READ IN: עברית

Ben Caspit October 4, 2019

 

Another article --- this time about the Israeli military industrial complex trying to skim money from the 'average Jacob" in Israel! But the 'panic' has one realistic note to it: it reflects how Israel is beginning to question whether they can drag the US to fight Iran!

https://breakingdefense.com/2019/10...llions-immediately-to-counter-iran-netanyahu/
Israel Needs ‘Many Billions Immediately’ To Counter Iran: Netanyahu

 

The fact that Israel is worried over an Iranian attack, is very true.
This has nothing to do with your claim that Israel wants the US to fight its wars.
Again, Israel fought many wars and in none had it acted like you claimed.

 

The only real change in anything that has happened the past 'few weeks' is the realization that Trump may not be eager to jump and fight the war Israel wanted the US to wage. Otherwise, Israel knows full well that Iran would not attack it unless Israel does something that leaves Iran no choice. Attacking Israel for Iran means war with the US. That hasn't changed. What has changed is that the US will not be waging a war on Iran for some 'preemptive' notion that is merely the excuse for the actual, underlying, agenda of Israel (namely, for the US to basically disarm, dismantle, neuter and render its adversaries militarily incapable of standing up to it).

 

Anybody with eyes in his head knows Trump will not risk Americans. This is his main ticket. He will use what he can to achieve American goals using economy rather than harm his army and spend billions of dollars without getting anything back.
In addition anybody with eyes in her head will understand Trump will not go to war in election year, so until 2020 ends, Iran has nothing to fear from the Americans in the coming year.
Your claim is baseless for so many reasons and the above is only one.
Another simple reason is that your claim has no logic into it. You claim A yields B and therefore not A yields C. No logic what so ever, and as proven above even your basic assumption is baseless.

 

In an election year, especially, Trump will not be able to ignore Iran (except in self-defense) launching an attack on Israel. He would lose more support if he does than anything he will gain from those who may be opposed to a war even under such a scenario. Besides, the American system will not stand for it.

What has changed is that the US (or at least Trump) may no longer be on board to come and protect Israel in case of Israeli actions that would trigger such a war.

But lets assume Israel doesn't take any aggressive action and stop its 'campaign between wars' against Iran. Would the Israelis still worry about Iran attacking them? Would the US really sit by and not come to Israel's aid in such a scenario? The answer to both questions is no. So Israel's fear of war is only a 'fear of war' that results from Israel attacking Iranian targets without the US to back it up. A fear they didn't have when they felt the US would back them up and was on the same page. And a fear they wouldn't have if they stopped this behavior.