The Dawn of the Clone Wars

The pros and cons of cruise missiles and drones are discussed in this article by a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank with close ties to the military industrial complex.

https://www.dailysignal.com/2019/09...to-defend-against-drones-and-cruise-missiles/
3 Reasons It’s Tough to Defend Against Drones and Cruise Missiles

 

You brought up the Iron Dome and I mentioned that even against the Hamas rockets it is designed to hit, its success rate recently hasn't been great (25%). As for the other layers in Israel's air defense network, none are really capable of doing a reliable job against cruise missiles and low flying stealth drone. That is not my assessment; that is what even Israel's experts would concede.

 

isn't the reason I said before? yes its smaller and terrain hugging but as it get closer, radar can pick it up more easily, its essentially how many cruise missile fired vs how many layer air defense have. Saudi can't cover all its resource with multi layer defense, however in a war time they have to be on full alert. during peace time many country don't even turn on their military radar for fear of ELINT collection. don't expect a success when 1-5 missile aim at a heavily defend location, and don't expect a lightly defend location to stop several dozens saturation missile attack. if you want more info go ask ppl on defensetalk or sinodefence forum or other dedicated military forum which usually has many experts on this.

 

where you get 25%? usually 70% consider a success. small rocket are inherently harder to hit, due to smaller, faster, less reaction time. for drone and cruise missile once it was detect/tracked, its much easier to hit it. where you get the idea iran has a good stealth drone?

 

I already posted this before.
https://www.jta.org/2019/05/07/isra...-dead-israelis-is-the-iron-dome-getting-worse
700 rockets, 240 intercepts, 4 dead Israelis: Is the Iron Dome getting worse?

I also posted this as well:
https://www.debka.com/neither-israel-or-us-has-the-capacity-to-counter-irans-new-cruise-missile/
Neither Israel nor US has the capacity to counter Iran’s new cruise missile

 

that's because its attacker overwhelm the defense, simple as that. for example if foes fire 50+ missile within very short period of time at 1 US destroyer, then the destroyer will get overwhelm and can't protect it self. however if we add 2-3 more destroyer to the equation then we reach equilibrium, where they might get something like 70% success rate. if we add few more destroyer then they might reach over 90% success rate. quantity has its own quality.
like I said there are professional study these tech/success rate, there are military forum member who know more about this topic. military has it own version on how many missile a particular defense can handle before overwhelmed.
furthermore I already said rocket is harder to intercept compare to drones due to speed/size/low reaction time.

in term of tech/training etc Iran is far from US. US has been working on ways to defend cruise missile/anti-ship missile since cold war against USSR. just goto defencetalk or sinodefense or other similar forum ask around and read their post.

 

Sure. Lets ignore even experts close to Israel and rely on anonymous posters in the forums you like to visit.

 

Lacking something coherent to say you create a strawman by suggesting I inferred that there needed to be a 100% success rate - as if this was some kind of black vs white paradigm. I said no such thing.

 

those poster are retired colonel/some even general and experts who wrote article on defense like sites. also where in your site indicate hes an experts.
do you know for every rocket hamma fired, Israel need about 2-3 intercept rocket to have high probability of success. also they probably has less than 10min reaction time to detect/track/fire anti-missile, and they had to be on alert almost 24/7, where the opposition can be relax and hit them any time, so which one has the advantage.

 

i'm just point out there are defense against cruise missile, some ppl think cruise missile/drone are this golden key that can destroy US air/missile defense easily. the only way to do is fire thousand at the same time to overwhelm the defense. but that require a lot coordination, and will be pick up by intel

 

Here is another report from Israel, which points out what I suggested we might see pretty soon. When it happens, we can revisit how reliable and good are Israel's air defense systems.

https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/09/26/iran-could-fire-cruise-missiles-at-israel-from-iraq/

 

here it mention success rate of the Iron dome about 85% night and 93% during day, like I said you cant use 700missile then said its success rate is 25%. typically success rate is calculate per missile. for example if for every missile there is 1 interceptor, the chance of that interceptor to destroy the target say 60%, but increase interceptor to 2, the success rate might increase to 80-90%

 

All these promotional videos are besides the point. The Iron Dome is worthless in a real war. At best, it will provide some protection to a few military installations which it will try to protect.

 

lol sure, unless you have real data, anything is propaganda. Iron dome was meant to fight against crude rocket. in real war against something like iran, its likely use THAAD/patriot missile and other system to defend. but most likely Israel will do a preemptive strike 1st and take out as many site as possible.

 

You are so clueless, its not worth discussing these things with you. Whatever you like to believe, all Israel is capable of doing against Iran is start a war for the purpose of dragging the US into the conflict to try to finish for it -- a war that will engulf the entire region and burn Israel anyway. Which is why even that is just a bluff by the Israelis. Otherwise, Israel can't even reliably take out bases next door to it despite its repeated bombings, much less do anything against bases thousands of miles away which it doesn't have much reach to hit!

 

Of course there is defenses Iron Dome, Patriot and so on. The problem is that these defenses do not work very well. This is the big elephant in the room that you are desperately trying to deny ... Ignoring this gap in our defenses is not the kind of thinking that keeps us safe.

Your claim that 5000 cruise Missiles/drones are required to overwhelm our defenses is patent nonsense on steroids. You have no clue what you are talking about. If we are talking Russia - India - China 1 hypersonic missile has a good chance of getting through to our Carriers (which are way better defended than against an attack on the homeland) - never mind 10.

Sorties of normal anti ship cruse missiles welded by these nations will overwhelm the aegis system.

Never mind that though .. our facilities in the US are not defended with anti missile systems like an Aircraft carrier.

 

You don't need to go far to understand the vulnerability of US aircraft carriers to anti ship ballistic missiles. The US sent the USS Abraham Lincoln to the "region", but keeps it far away from Iran, precisely for that reason. And its commander has said so as well. Indeed, US military planners have long mentioned that in case of war with Iran, US naval assets such as aircraft carriers will need to be kept at a distance from Iran.

 

It is a somber reality that our carrier groups so vulnerable to modern missile technology - to the point of shooting fish in a barrel in some cases.

 

This is an interesting article, and analysis, of certain footage and video released by Iran recently showing it has hacked American drones. Overall, electronic warfare is a very important component in today's military landscape and while I am glad Iran was able to show its capabilities in this regard, it also shows (as the article alludes to) that perhaps this particular capability vulnerability in US drones has somehow been fixed since then.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2019/10/01/has-iran-been-hacking-u-s-drones/
Has Iran Been Hacking U.S. Drones?

 

No, here is a quote from the article you posted:

So according to you the system performs with 99.1% interception rate.
Now assume it was in Saudia, not a single rocket would have hit the target because there were much fewer than 100 rockets and they came from afar, not like the ones coming from Gaza to Ashdod, only couple of miles away.

 

The defense system is as good as the weakest link. In the Saudi case, the people who operate it.
You can spend trillions of $ on weapon systems, but if the operators do not know how to operate it or operate it like careless robots and not like thinking humans, you get nothing in return.
This is the case here.
They spend ton of $, but the army is rotten, corrupt and indifferent. The results are accordingly.

 

I posted that article for the actual statistical figures, not the spin by the Israeli military you wanted to quote. And these were crude rockets from Hamas. They have little to do with the kind of systems that Israel's own experts acknowledge they have no real defense against. On the latter, I have already posted the article that says exactly what I am saying.

But we don't need to go with propaganda from either side. Often, actions speak louder than words. You seem to forget that the USS Abraham Lincoln was sent to counter Iran from 700 miles away, with its commander specifically saying they operate from that distance to be out of Iran's range. If you want, I will find the comments I am referring to and post them here.

But we don't need to go even back several months. Here is a report about the temporary relocation of the HQ of US Central Command that will hopefully help educate you more, although it is clear to me that you prefer not to be anyway.
https://www.businessinsider.de/us-m...h-carolina-sitting-duck-iran-2019-9?r=US&IR=T
The US military is practicing moving its Middle Eastern command base to South Carolina because its Qatar base is a 'sitting duck' for Iranian attacks

 

If you send 100 accurate rockets at a single target, you will hit it. Iron dome is not 100%. I do not knoq the exact number, but it is between 75% and 90%.
Also there is no current good defence for any nation right against drones.
Still, if you have to concentrate that much resources to hit each single target, you will lose the war.

The US forces are proyected there by patriot missiles, which are not very good. They are nothing like irone dome or arrow defense systems and cannot protect against massive attacks at all.
The Iranians can create some big damage using a terrorist act, but for the sake of the Iranian people, dont get the american too upset. It will be like kicking a hornet nest, you get instant sutisfaction followed by horror.
Just dont go there.
Remember ww2. Japan hit US very hard, much more than anything Iran can even dream of doing. Yet it was Japan who was destroyed in the end. Just do not go there.

 

Your gibberish about some other things notwithstanding, including about the "Iron Dome" (it is not defense against either drones or low-flying cruise missiles), you are right about one thing: Iran doesn't want war with the US, if it has any choice. We can hit the US a lot more strongly than you imagine, and even pretty much wipe Israel off the map, but to what end? At the end, the Japan analogy does have merit.

Which is why Iran isn't going to push things that far. It will show patience, even when patience is hard given the measures taken against Iran by the US/Israel. Occasionally, it will try to remind you that you are pushing too far and too hard. But, ultimately, if the US re-positions itself more and more out of the region; if the Saudis come to their senses and accept their place in the order of things, content with their unearned money and not seeking to do anyone else's dirty work; and if Israel understands that it can't continue on this path indefinitely without things blowing up in its face too; we can then find something worthwhile come out from all of this. If not, either US/Israel prevail in cutting up the region in pieces and preoccupying it with internal strife over real and imagined issues without a war. Or they will need a war to get there, in which case, besides what will happen to Iran, you will see the global economy collapse and Israel find out what it means to be wiped off the map.

 

Almost civilized, but then the small genocidal barbarian has to come out in its full glory boasting about wiping whole nations off the map.
Well, every time some barbarian spue that threat, another Iranian proxy or war mongers in Syria or Iraq is blown to meet his maker by some unidentified forces.
It looks like somebody is taking the barbarians words seriously and takes actions accordingly.