Get used to it.

Much ado about nothing.
A Lesson On 10-Day Forecasts: GFS Models Once Showing Düsseldorf 44°C Corrected Downward 14°C!
By P Gosselin on 12. July 2022

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The model generated fantasy murder heatwave that the media confused as science and reality.

On July 9th, I posted the following chart, from Kachelmannwetter on Facebook. At the time, the US GFS model was showing Düsseldorf would reach a whopping 44°C (111°F) on July 18, and see an overnight low of a scorching 28°C On July 19th.



Image: Kachelmannwetter.com

That temperature of course would smash Germany’s all-time record high of 41.2°C to smithereens, if it ever happened. Yet, anyone with any sense understands that model forecasts 10 days out just can’t be taken seriously and that it would certainly soon get adjusted downward back to reality. That is, except the media.

Over the past weekend my mobile phone was lit up by a stream of push messages warning of the coming unprecedented scorching record heat of the likes we’ve never seen before. Climate alarmists were already practicing their lines.

Temperatures in the mid 40s?

For example, Germany’s daswetter.com reported two days ago on one GFS run here showing temperatures reaching the mid 40s C across much of Europe, warning of “murder heat”:



Europeans would drop like flies, by the tens of thousands! Climate crisis!

“Several weather models predict 40 degrees and more next weekend. The heat summer will reach Germany with full force,” blared daswetter.com. “If you don’t have a fan yet, you should get one quickly. The devices will soon become scarce.”

Reality: “Murder heat” to last a whole half a day

Today, 2 days later, the GFS of course has since corrected its computer generated fantasy forecast. Now it shows the following for July 18th:



Image: Kachelmannwetter.com

The latest GFS forecast July 18 high for Düsseldorf stands at about 30°C – a whopping 14°C correction.

That “murder heat wave” has been pushed off to July 19, and will persist a whole 12 hours! After that, the poor citizens of Germany will have to struggle with sizzling temps of 25°C (20°C in Hamburg) – just brutal.

 

And yet . . .
". . . However, there is no calculation based on first principles that leads to a large warming by CO2, none. . . .
In fact, there is no evidence on any time scale showing that CO2 variations or other changes to the energy budget cause large temperature variations. There is however evidence to the contrary. 10-fold variations in the CO2 over the past half billion years have no correlation whatsoever with temperature; likewise, the climate response to large volcanic eruptions such as Krakatoa. . . . "
How Climate Change Pseudoscience Became Publicly Accepted

 

I stipulated weeks ago that there is no shortage of fake science produced by pseudo scientists without a background in climate science, of dubious motivation, willing to refute reality. https://www.space.com/2020-global-temperature-nasa-climate-change-interview

 

<snipped>
Every informed person knows CO2 is a greenhouse gas. That is not evidence that it governs the earth's surface temperature, sorry.

 

Proving me right again.

 

Close, but no cigar. And btw, the UAH data are collected in a NASA/NOAA program.
UAH Global Temperature Update for June 2022: +0.06 deg. C
July 1st, 2022
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2022 was +0.06 deg. C, down (again) from the May, 2022 value of +0.17 deg. C.

Tropical Coolness

The tropical (20N-20S) anomaly for June was -0.36 deg. C, which is the coolest monthly anomaly in over 10 years, the coolest June in 22 years, and the 9th coolest June in the 44 year satellite record.

 

Every post you write proves my point. "I stipulated weeks ago that there is no shortage of fake science produced by pseudo scientists without a background in climate science, of dubious motivation, willing to refute reality."

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2016.1156106?journalCode=fenp20

 

I.e., you attempted to use a poisoning-the-well fallacy as an argument.

 

Thanks, but I'll stick with the data.

 

How many of these places purportedly setting "all-time" record highs even had official thermometer readings back in the 1930s? Spain, for example, was in the midst of a civil war. And few places had any reason to make or record accurate weather observations before aviation became widespread after WW II.

 

These folks aren't in the habit of pulling numbers out of their a** like climate change deniers.

Europe’s brutal heat wave may be continent's worst since 1757
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...wave-could-be-worst-in-over-200-years/1216701

 

Actually, they don't have credible data back to the 1930's.

 

Ah, yes, actually, they are. And use of the term, "climate change denier" is conclusive proof of a false claim made with intent to deceive.

"May be." "Could be." Numbers pulled out of fundaments. Check.

And, uh, given that the heat wave of 1757 is considered worse than the current one, and you claim only fossil fuels could be causing the current one, how did fossil fuels cause that one, hmmmmmmmmmmmm?

<crickets>

 

Extreme Heat Continues Its March Across Western Europe

LONDON — The weather maps for Europe were blood red on Sunday as heat that has been baking Spain and Italy and fanning fires in southwest France worked its way north toward Britain.

In London, it was warm, in the high 80s, but temperatures on Monday and Tuesday were forecast to hit 100 or higher and to shatter records in a place where air-conditioning is rare and buildings are constructed to retain heat.

In France, the extreme temperatures that have fed wildfires in the south are expected to sweep into the north, especially along the Atlantic coast, which was bracing for uncharacteristically scorching weather.

In Italy, where temperatures were expected to be in the 90s on Sunday, the heat was bad enough, but the country is also experiencing its worst drought in years. The government has allocated 36.5 million euros, about $36.8 million, for water-starved farmers in northern regions. Two hydro-electrical plants had to be shut in the area because there was not enough water to cool them.

And in Spain, a heat wave entered its eighth day, with 30 wildfires burning across the country. Relief is hard to find, even after the sun goes down — Saturday night was Madrid’s fifth consecutive “torrid night,” a term used when temperatures do not fall below 77 degrees Fahrenheit. The previous record stood at three nights. Rubén del Campo, the State Meteorological Agency’s spokesman, said that of the 27 torrid nights recorded in the past century, over half, 15, were since 2012.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/17/world/europe/europe-uk-heat-wave.html

I have no doubt there is an ample supply of TV weathermen, or guest bloggers, willing to deny the science, and the demonstrable evidence that human activity is causing global warming.

https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...xists-earth-warming-and-humans-are-main-cause

 

Irony alert!!

 

Refuted by the facts.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01290-z

 

That paper has already been shown to be a swing and a miss.
Is the Southwest U.S. Experiencing a Megadrought Fueled by Global Warming?

". . . Unfortunately, there are some major problems with this study and many of the hyperbolic claims--as I will explain below.
The US Southwest has clearly experienced a dry spell recently, but global warming (a.k.a. climate change) is only a minor contributor compared to natural variability. Decadal dry periods are not unusual or unknown for the U.S. Southwest. They have happened many times before during periods when human-caused climate change could not be the origin.
Why 22 years?
A key aspect of this paper is its claim that the last 22 years were the driest over the southwest U.S. for the past 1200 years. Their measure of dryness was soil moisture and they secured this indirectly by relating tree ring chronologies to such moisture. Here is a plot of soil moisture from their paper:

Figure 1b from Williams et al. 2002. Nature Climate Change. The soil moisture
is expressed as standard deviations from the mean.
Tree rings are, of course, imperfect measurements of soil moisture, but let's put that aside for the moment.
You will notice a lot of ups and down in southwest U.S. soil moisture, and that in most ways, the recent dry period is unremarkable. In fact, there were many previous events in which the soil moisture was drier. There were many periods when the soil moisture was low (say less than -1) for longer periods.

Now, I am not a little surprised that none of the "curious" media stopped for a moment and asked: why did these researchers pick 22 years? Why not 25 years, 30 years, or 50 years?

The answer is that their whole narrative, their whole claim of unusual drought, would have weakened greatly if they had used 25 years or 30 years or anything longer. . . ."

 

Because of warming, fewer hurricanes.
Tropical cyclones now ‘13% less frequent’ due to climate change [link]

 

Yeah like most business folk they adapt as best the can. Big oil now builds big windmills as energy prices soar because green energy is inefficient. Among other things that come with that sweltering west Texas heat is not enough wind to make your wind chimes tingle let alone turn the blades of a hundred foot wind mill.

 

Exxon never lied.
The "Exxon Climate Papers" show what Exxon and climate science knew and shared
2016 › 04 › 20 › the-exxon-climate-papers-show-what-exxon-and-climate-science-knew-and-shared

The risks are far from proven and what Exxon knew, they did communicate to the public.

 

Climate Change Is Accelerating, Bringing World ‘Dangerously Close’ to Irreversible Change

Even the ground itself is warming faster. Permanently frozen ground, or permafrost, is thawing more rapidly, threatening the release of large amounts of long-stored carbon that could in turn make warming even worse, in what scientists call a climate feedback loop.

In a recent commentary in the journal Nature, scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and other institutions warned that the acceleration of ice loss and other effects of climate change have brought the world “dangerously close” to abrupt and irreversible changes, or tipping points. Among these, the researchers said, were the collapse of at least part of the West Antarctic ice sheet — which itself could eventually raise sea levels by four feet or more — or the loss of the Amazon rainforest.

“In our view, the consideration of tipping points helps to define that we are in a climate emergency,” they wrote.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/climate/climate-change-acceleration.html

 

But what if there is some really cool stuff under that ice? Like a talking dinosaur?

 

Not just propaganda tub-thumping, but three-year-old tub thumping. Those "tipping points" are already in the rear view mirror.

 

Get used to it.

U.K. Heat Live Updates: Britain Braces for Its Hottest Day Ever

Britain has declared a national emergency because of the heat.
LONDON — With trains slowing to a crawl, schools and doctors’ offices closing, and the government urging people to work from home, Britain girded on Monday for what recordkeepers said could be the hottest day in its history, with temperatures forecast to soar near 40 degrees Celsius (about 104 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of the country.

The current record of 38.7 degrees Celsius (101.7 Fahrenheit) was set in 2019, according to the Met Office, Britain’s national weather service.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/18/world/europe-uk-heat-weather

 

Ok so it is getting hotter. And?