If Trump is not removed through Impeachment, will we lose in 2020?

It is good you are accepting defeat early. It will save you alot of heart ache.

 

The fact is that nothing will remove Trump if he is allowed to enlist the aid of foreign governments to help in his campaign by using the power of the United States to extort their aid. The day after Mueller gave his deposition in congress. The day he started to believe that he wouldn't be impeached because all of his obstruction of justice and other crimes... That's the day he started his extortion of Ukraine. Just imagine what would have happened if Biden were the candidate, and just a few days before the election an announcement comes from the President of Ukraine saying that Biden has been found guilty of manipulating his corrupt predecessor for personal profit. And, to prove it, they had a "Server" belonging to the Democratic Party which they would have ready to make public on November 4... one day after the elections.

Trump is doing everything he can to have these elections decided by anything but the will of the people. We need to start considering the possibility that he just might succeed. Because he will definitely succeed if Democrats don't call attention to this. Impeachment is one way to call attention of people who don't normally follow politics. Make them aware that, even if he is not removed, why it is that he should be removed.

 

The rest of your post was off topic. Actually, your whole post was off-topic. The topic of this thread is Trump's extortion of a foreign government, as has been proven by witnesses and documents.... and even Trump himself, and others in his staff. If you have something to say about that, go for it. If you prefer to talk about something else, open your own thread.

 

Are you saying that not even the democrats suborning the Constitution by doing a fake impeachment will not be sufficient to remove President Trump?

 

That's why I'm the expert. Because I learn from everything I can get my hands on to learn. Including adolescence.

Just like you choose to learn only from what you hear on Fox and their echo-chamber. We each have made our choices.

 

That post was meant for a serious discussion. Obviously not directed to you.

 

You don't think I am serious? You have admitted willingly or unwillingly, that the democrats are walking all over the Constitution and that does not bother you. Before it bothers you, you think it has to be worse than Trump. I swore to defend the Constitution, not walk all over it because it got in the way.

 

Oh! It's nothing against you personally. You're probably very serious. I just mean that I don't think a serious discussion is for you. I have tried. Many times. And every time you end up completely misrepresenting what I say. I don't know if that's by design, or if it's a matter of some ability. Remember when I ask you to quote where I said something you misrepresented? You refuse. You just did the same again the message before this one.

I always give people a chance to show that they're here to debate seriously. Usually more than one. But there is a limit. After the limit, I understand that they're here just to repeat talking points and have no intention (or maybe capability... I have no way of knowing for sure) to use reason and logic on their own. So, from then on, I respond to them accordingly.

 

Would you care to restate this in a way that makes sense?

 

what part did you have trouble understanding and I will try to help you

 

You aren't truthfully referencing your own words and topic. Anti trumpers love their mantras.

 

First off, after 10 days of hearings let's see what the numbers show.

Public response to impeachment hearings. Comparing Trump’s approval ratings, percentage of those who want Trump impeached and removed along with those who don’t.

Impeachment hearings began on 13 Nov 2019 vs. 24 Nov 2019

Trump’s approval 13 Nov 43.9%, 24 Nov 44.3%


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html



13 Nov Democrats for impeachment and removal 82%, 24 Nov Democrats for impeachment and removal 87%.

13 Nov Republicans for impeachment and removal 12%, 24 Nov Republicans for impeachment and removal 9%.

13 Nov Independents for impeachment and removal 38%, 24 Nov Independents for impeachment and removal 41%.

13 Nov Democrats against impeachment and removal 6%, 24 Nov Democrats against impeachment and removal 8%.

13 Nov Republicans against impeachment and removal 80%, 24 Nov Republicans against impeachment and removal 87%.

13 Nov Independents against impeachment and removal 39%, 24 Nov Independents against impeachment and removal 47%.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ment_and_removal_of_president_trump-6957.html

10 days after the start of the hearings, we finally see a bit of movement. Impeachment and removal have gained 5 points among Democrats and 3 points among independents. Although support for impeachment and removal has dropped 3 points among Republicans. The biggest rise was independents against impeachment and removal, an 8-point rise, Republicans against impeachment and removal have risen 7 points. It seems after 10 days of hearings, Republicans and Democrats have harden their view on this. But I think it is more important to keep tabs on independents, the less to non-partisan group, probably most not in either the pro or anti Trump camps. On 13 Nov you had 38% for impeachment and removal, 39% against. 24 Nov shows 41% of independents for impeachment and removal, 47% against impeachment and removal.

As for 2020, I've always said that this impeachment revolves around how independents view it. The less to non-partisan's, swing voters. Probably most not in either the pro or anti Trump camps. Whether they view it as a political vendetta against Trump or a search for truth and justice. Also a lot depends on who the Democrats nominate. In my view the latter is more important than the former. Call me crazy. I think candidates matter, which is a lesson that should have been learned by the Democrats from 2016.

The impeachment hearings I would say has been basically a wash up to this point. Everyone expects the House to impeach, the senate to acquit. The more important numbers I think are those who are paying attention to the hearings. Question 7. Did you watch any part of the public impeachment hearings? Democrats 52% yes, 48% no. Republicans 44% yes, 56% no. Independents 31% yes, 69% no.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u9tu99dui5/econTabReport.pdf

Republicans and Democrats have their minds made up. Independents are the ones who's minds could change. Yet very few in this latter group are watching or paying attention to impeachment. Hence, I don't think impeachment will have much effect on the 2020 elections. Who the Democratic nominee is in my view will mean much more.

 

If Trump is not removed through Impeachment, will we lose in 2020?

You will find out around this time next year.

 

Yet Schiff is opting for more hearings........

 

I will look forward to the montage of Leftists crying and knashing their teeth!

 

There you go again with the exaggerations. You just can't help yourself.

What talking point? I don't remember anyone else saying that what the democrats are doing is an abuse of power. According to you they are trying to convince the American people. The only thing the American people can do in response to this is vote. That makes what the democrats are doing is trying to influence the election. That is clearly illegal.

By the way, whatever you want to call it, it isn't working. The support for impeachment has gone down.

 

Just walk in and mess with them. They set the machines up days ahead and in most places don't guard them. In less than 2 minutes you can hack and reprogram the machines and nobody will be the wiser.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomas...acking-election-voting-machines/#48e286f21d55


This guy goes to polling polling places every year before voting starts and takes photos of himself standing with unattended voting machines.



The whole thing is an open book to any organized effort.

 

I'm predicting a massive red wave. Too many undecideds come out to vote only during Presidential elections, so, team Blue has done pretty well off year. The Democratic party looks suicidal to the vast majority of ordinary people. They are going to vote Republican in record numbers. I wonder if there will be enough wins to have the super majorities needed to re-write the US Constitution? The Republicans were only 2 dozen seats from being able to do so in 2016. What would such a constitution look like drafted today?

 

Fascinating. This happened where?

 

You make several good points, but I disagree with a couple of the main ones.

It already had a "big impact". It was when the information first came out. Anybody who thinks that a single 1 or 2% variation one way or another is meaningful doesn't understand polls very well.

Assuming there is no "big revelation" from now to the moment the Senate puts this out to vote (which is a bit of a stretch to assume... but let's assume), what I think we'd be likely to see are small variations. Independents are not relevant in this time-frame. They won't be until the elections. Most are not very well informed and just follow the trend. Before the elections they can go one way or the other, but it's meaningless unless there is a clear unequivocal reason, given that most don't follow politics closely.

So, as I said, there was one significant variation at the end of September. The next significant one will likely be (again, short of some "big revelation") when the time comes to actually have a vote in the Senate on this. The next one after that (as far as we can tell at this point) will be the actual elections. Today, most people (especially independents) don't know what the evidence for Trump is. So they can sit and wait. When time to vote in the Senate comes, they will understand that all the evidence is out. And if none whatsoever has come that will redeem Trump. And instead, they manage to keep the documents locked up and the witnesses silent, that alone will come against Trump.

Republican Senators will have to weigh how all of this will affect them. I think that the longer it takes the Senate to take a vote, the worse it will be for them. Information is not going to stop coming out, even if they fail to remove him. And their biggest fear right now is a tweet from Trump that could motivate a primary challenger against them. That particular fear will be gone when there is no longer time for somebody to jump in.

So all this could take several routes. But I don't see a single one that would be beneficial for Trump. Except, if he released all the documents and allowed all the witnesses to appear under oath and all that had any indication that he's innocent. Even if it doesn't prove it. So much as a sensible "alternative explanation", would work in Trump's favor. But he would have to be innocent for that to work. What do you really think? Is he and would he do that if you think he may be? What do you think the majority of the American People will believe in November of next year?

 

In a serious discussion you don't just "say" something. You show compelling reasoning. You explain all the underlying implications and address the known facts. How does it benefit democrats? Why would it benefit them more now than months ago? And in order for it to be "abuse of power", as opposed to carrying out their constitutional duty, you would need to be convinced that Trump is innocent. So you have to show your reasons for assuming that despite the multiple witnesses and documentation to the contrary. Or, at a minimum, that there are not sufficient motives to suspect that Trump has committed any impeachable offenses whatsoever. You need to explain away the fact that a whistleblower complaint was confirmed by all the witnesses. You would need to explain why, if Trump is innocent, he stonewalls the investigation. That fact alone is motive enough to impeach him...

I mean.... That's only a small sample. I could either go on and on trying to show you what a serious discussion would look like. Or I could work on the serious discussions I am already engaged on, as well as researching (read my sig) for the next serious discussion.

I choose the latter.

BTW: "You exaggerate" (your favorite backdoor escape) is yet another sign of somebody who is not interested in a serious debate. You have to show that I'm wrong! Not just qualify what I say.

 

Most states. Only paper ballots are immune but most of the country dumped them after the 2000 election because of what happened in Florida.

 

So the voting machines were tampered with in most states?

 

It could be the Democrats have backed themselves into a corner. Perhaps the only person around who realized there could be a downside to official, public hearings on impeachment is Speaker Pelosi. So what we have seen is the hardening of views, Democrats for impeachment and removal, Republicans against. Independents not paying much attention at all. I call it a wash so far.

Where this could hurt the Democrats isn't so much in the presidential contest, but in the contest for House seats. Remember of the 40 seats the Democrats picked up, 31 were by moderate Democrats in districts Trump won back in 2016. If the folks in those 31 districts view this as a partisan Democratic political vendetta, quite a few of those 31 seats could revert to Republican hands in 2020. Time will tell.

 

Yes, I agree when the talk about impeachment began, that was a big moment. So far the hearings hasn't moved anyone except to harden one's view. I also agree about the senate and their vote. This puts Collins, Gardner, Ernst between a rock and a hard place. Trump's approval rating is down to around 40% plus in all three states. A vote against impeachment and removal probably dooms their chances for reelection in the general. A vote for impeachment, means they'll be primaried out. The probability the Democrats pick up all three seats is very high. McSally and Tillis are two more walking a tight rope.

On the other side is Jones, Alabama where Trump has a 60% approval rating. A vote to impeach and removes dooms Jones's slim chances for reelection. Also there is Manchin, West Virginia who isn't up for reelection, but where Trump approval rests at 61%. Whereas I don't think impeachment will effect the presidential race much, it sure could the senate. Perhaps even in the house. Remember that 31 of the 40 seats the Democrats picked up were by moderate Democrats in districts Trump won back in 2016. The GOP needs a 19 seat net gain to retake the house.

I also agree on the polls, most have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. A gain or loss within the MOE means basically nothing. But a gain or loss outside the MOE, one should take that seriously. That specifies movement one way or the other.

Now who the democrats nominate I think is more important than these impeachment hearings. The outcome is a foregone conclusion. Especially when 2/3rds of independents, the swing voters aren't paying it one bit of attention.