North Korea threatening to attack Guam

"Like CNN, FBI and granma from flat next door."

 

Precisely.

Cheers,
Jason Bourne

 

Pretty sure if the us attacks nk it wil take a fair amount of losses and would be forced to invade and occupy it since nk is going to invade and bomb the south in retaliation if the us attacks. You can bet on that.

Then comes the worst if you ask me. Even if you defeat nk in the field they probably been planning a guerilla war for decades in the event of a invasion and probably got weapons ammo and tunnels acros the entire country prepared for it. Would be a nightmare far worse then afganistan or iraq if that is the case

Ofcourse the army could rise up and get rid of the great leader but i would not count on them for it. Hope for the best expect the worst id say

 

Welcome to the unsupported conjecture festival.

Cheers,
Jason Bourne

 

Please get informed correctly. North Korea made an announcement that North Korea's missile arsenals
made a proposition to fire missiles to waters near Guam (out of the US territory), and it needs Kim Jung Un's approval before execution.

I don't think its anything illegal. Its certainly not an "attack", but you can probably call it a "threat".

But when you think about United States makes threats to North Korea by sending out these bombers near North Korea all the time saying its for defensive purpose, you can probably say the missile firing is for defensive purpose.

 

What else does anyone have to go on in this example?

 

Here is my wild scenario:

The Americans, the Chinese and the Russians have a secret meeting in the White House, or the Kemlin, or Tiananmen Square (wherever) and then they wait for Kim to lob some missiles at Guam and hope he comes within 1000 miles.

The US, S.Korea, Japan respond is such a way that Kim tells his people to prepare for war (again).

Immediately after, the Chinese government announces they are withdrawing all support of the N. Korean regime unless Kim steps down.

Kim is out on the basketball court as his palace with Dennis Rodman when he gets the news from a Russian who offers to give him asylum at the embassy in Pyongyang.

Next thing, Kim is on a plan to Moscow where Putin offers to lease him one of his super palaces on the Black Sea, or in Spain, for one dollar per year. Kim threatens war if Putin doesn't give him the keys to both palaces for the dollar.

Everybody is happy.

Kim gets to hobnob with leftest celebrities like Chelsea Handler and Madonna.

The Chinese get N. Korea.

The N. Korean people get a new Nike plant.

Dennis Rodman is put in charge of the Nike plant so he can get out of hock.

The S. Koreans are happy to smell rice across the border instead of kim-chi.

The Japanese go back to worrying about earthquakes and tidal waves and--

Trump Jr. cuts a deal to turn all of Kim's palaces into hotels.

Putin gets the short end of the deal, but he has it coming for messing with our elections.

Sounds good to me.

 

The US can handle Kim.

So far, they have been playing one upmanship with him.

If his idea of a bulls eye with missiles is the Pacific Ocean, the US can respond with something like parking some old ships off the coast of N. Korea and sinking them with their own missiles from 1000's of miles away.

That is rubbing the chubby kid's face in the dirt.

In the meantime, the US can remind China that if their client wants to be in the big leagues, they will hold them responsible when he gets out of line.

The Chinese are not stupid. They are not going to let anyone determine their foreign policy for them.

 

Including Americans.

 

Who do you think the Chinese would prefer to have better relations with--the US, or the Orient's version of Jerry Lewis?

 

Trump needs to make an arrangement with China which adequately assures them the preservation of the status quo after Kim's removal, that's all.

 

I think the US broadly speaking seeks to destroy China.
And I think they know this full well.

The two empires are rivals.

Pandering to America in this would be appeasement. They would be fools to do so.

I think the common interests you share, trade for mutual benefit, are real and strong, but I think your end goals are ultimately in direct opposition with each other.

 

Kim Jung Un is PERFECT for China's long term goals. It is not about 'relationships." Fools think in terms of niceness and relationships in foreign policy. It is about competing wealth, power and territory. The greater risks their surrogate leader of China's slave labor province of N. Korea the better. Ideally, to China, Kim uses the components China provides to build ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and obliterates a dozen or two USA cities plus Seoul, Tokyo and a few other Japanese and S. Korean cities. In return, North Korea is obliterated, meaning the USA, Japan, S. Korea and N. Korea are no longer problems.

China can claim no complicity, claim they had sternly warned N. Korea, claim we should not have antagonized N. Korea - and then China rapidly takes over all of Asia and the Pacific with no opposition.

China, unlike the USA, plans long run games. China's surrogate Kim and their slave province N. Korea can give China one half of the entire world - with no risk, minimal expense, complete deniability, and without firing a shot. 2 years, 5 years, 10 years or 20 years - just a few minutes in the scope of human world history. I see nothing stopping this evolution because we are so stupid we actually believe foreign policy and military risks are just about words and slogans - not reality.

 

You think too much. Take a break. China has already stated that if N. Korea attacks S. Korea and/or the United States it will not honor its protective commitment under the Sino-N.Korean Treaty.

Cheers,
Jason Bourne

 

You obviously don't understand the differences in our tech and theirs. You don't appear to understand why AA and SAM batteries don't want to turn their radar on unless necessary. However those we know the location of it doesn't matter as much. It does matter if a Wild Weasel attacks vs a bomber or ACLM attacks but not a huge deal. The Wild Weasel wants them to turn on their radar so they can counter it. Those planes are equipped with countermeasures to defeat their radar while sending a missile down that path. The size of missile is actually a hindrance to hitting the F16s. The smaller and faster/agile missiles are more a danger than some antique telephone pole sized missile. I'm not going to try to debate you further as I see it as pointless when you don't know the topic and just keep repeating yourself without explanation.

 

On the nosey. As soon as it became clear China was supplying missiles/parts they became transparent. I guess not hearing this from the talking heads means they are oblivious (unlikely) or just parroting the silence of the lambs in Washington who don't have plans longer than 4 years (actually they seldom even have a plan). And I hate conspiracy theories. This scenario just matches the facts however inconvenient that is.

 

@JakeJ

I think China seeks "conquest" of the pacific, not through military means or through war or proxy war.
I think it seeks it by diplomatic manoeuvre.

This is how I imagine it.

The population of Taiwan hold an election, and the unify with China faction (About half the nation) gets into power and asks American forces to leave. Lease ends and is not renewed perhaps.

American navy sails away.... Chinese navy buys the old US bases. Sails into harbour unopposed, stays there for the next 100 years.
China's preferred outcome.

South Korea, the same model.
Once it is clear that the USA cannot protect them, or indeed worse, places them in jeopardy and the people buy into this, they USA out party takes ascendance and change over of hegemony ensues.

That's what I think China wants, Hong Kongesque conquests.
No war just leases not renewed in recognition of the change in power in that region.

Overt wars will manifest as their power grows. Interventions with those that it is easy to intervene in.
As their military grows this will become the path of least resistance in some circumstances.

And I think we are seeing that with fisheries disputes.

 

You have a very vivid and unusual imagination. Hilarious.

Cheers,
Jason Bourne

 

I get it.

But you don't,
Your missiles vs their missiles.

This is not a hypothetical.
In this scenario, their missiles have proved repeatedly to win in this scenario.

In Bosnia using the exact same weapon systems, they shot you down again and again, and you never blew them up. That's how it went down. And they had a considerably smaller force up against you than NK has.


Why people turn their radars off is because they are fighting a superior force.
When they are the superior force and you are not, it is you who will be turning your RADARS off and not they.

What I cannot accurately ascertain at this point is who has the superior force.
I don't know what NK has and with respect neither do you nor does anyone in your nation.

Picture instead the nightmare scenario for your F16.
He is carrying 8 anti radiation missiles, and twenty radars are detected.
Oh ****.

So how do we fight a superior force from the air. Well, how we were trained to do it is NAP.
Not to fly around like a bloody great target hoping someone tries to get a lock on us so that we can find them. We don't give them the first shot advantage. This is a ****ing stupid strategy that has failed us.

Instead we fly low and fast and make raids.

Or we go the technology solution. Which I'm afraid is not ye olde F16's.
It's unmanned aircraft.

 

What's your source for this absolute load of rubbish?

Cheers,
Jason Bourne

 

What China has stated and what China actually ends up doing, `well... ever heard a politician lie?

What I expect China to do is the same as that guy in their newspaper does. But events.

Not everything can be clearly forseen.

What Trump has suggested is a first strike on North Korea will take place within one year of this day. And the Chinese author has stated that he believes they will respond to intervene in this case.

 

Please consult posts made above. They include documented examples of F16 shoot downs and flight recordings of those shoot downs.
We have Pentagon reports on the damage our air campaigns did to Serb forces. And we also have Serb reports.
I only have public domain information to go on. No inside line. Just my own conjecture based on the study of events that took place in my life time.

I use wiki mostly to give me idea's of military dispositions. It may not be accurate but it gives a loose idea for me to play with.

I am however a big believer in the saying a picture speaks a thousand words.
So, with that in mind.

Bosnian air campaign.






Essentially what happened in Bosnia is not very much. The air campaign delivered no results and took so many casualties that they withdrew.
(This was a period of history when the US was still very casualty adverse after Vietnam).

Most notably, the vaunted super weapons of the Gulf War, Stealth bombers and Apache helicopters were withdrawn from theatre. No more teenage movies ever to be made about them.

 

No one wearing United States military uniform items.

Cheers,
Jason Bourne

 

They weren't shot down by their own side old boy.
That's the enemy.





Escape adventures ensue. Owen Wilson stars in a Hollywood version of one f 16 shoot down I have referenced to above.


He was looking for American uniforms too. At the risk of ruining the ending for you... don't worry he eventually finds them.

 

F117 and two F16 were not shot down in Bosnia. Those were shot down in Serbia during 1999 war.

In 1999 War in Serbia.
1x F117
2x F16
2x Helicopters
25x UAV's
3x Fighter Jets damaged.
A lot of Tomahawks were also shot down, there are several of them at Belgrade Museum of Aviation.

In 90's War in Bosnia
1x F16
1x Mirage
Couple of helis.

Keep in mind that Army of Republic of Srpska did not have at all the same capabilities as the Yugoslav(Serb one) And also the Yugoslav technology was old Soviet 50,60s tech.

Those numbers above are NATO numbers, Serb ex-generals and soldiers will tell you that there are a lot more downed Jets and Helis on NATO side, but I guess the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Most of Yugoslav(Serb) Equipment was shipped back from Kosovo intact after the NATO campaign, that is all thanks to our allies within NATO. If there weren't so much information getting back to Serbian Intel I guess the damages would be greater. Majority of the equipment that was destroyed were old T55's Orao and jastreb planes, some MIG 29s and a heck of a lot decoys.