Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Tomorrow, I will know what the results are.

 

Just to clarify, that isn't true. Malaysia and Thailand have more, and even in the US the greatest number are in California. Also, check out the top nations for the Chinese diaspora. Australia, South Korea, and Singapore are also in the top ten .. so clearly it isn't a significant factor.

 

What are you comparing it to, though? Italy, or New Zealand?

 

"Seems"

So, I am going to do this V E R Y S L O W L Y because quite apparently, it's just not getting through to you.

That write up that you have quoted more than once is from August, 2005, almost 15 years ago.

the NOVELCoronaVirus did not exist in 2005. See the problem, there?

Since then, there have been lots of peer studies over the Chloroquine family, some well founded, others, less so.

Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine have been used with *some* positive effect for people suffering from COVID-19 and I, for one, am for anything that works without killing a bunch of people. In most cases, the drug helped to shorten the time-frame in which the subject had the worst symptoms, so that their body could heal more quickly.

But in some other cases, the application of either Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine, either alone or in tandem with either Xythromax or Zinc, has led to some deaths.

So, the jury is out on the Chloroquine-family. It's worth researching, but it is not the miracle cure for COVID-19. For that, we will need a vaccine.

You just keep on quoting the same old stuff from 15 years ago, but real doctors and real scientists in 2020 are producing their own studies and results.

See how that works?

Better luck to you next time.

 

Oh, don't worry, I won't disappoint, will be reiterating all my main points about the massive overcounting of Covid cases in the corrupt Soprano States sometime tomorrow with new death figures, whether they are responded to directly or fallaciously

 

In this country it was staff. Staff who weren't quarantining themselves outside working hours, or who lived with people who didn't - which is totally not on if there is a healthcare worker in the home.

 

I can look at raw numbers on a comparative basis, but I know better than to use those comparisons to make judgments about whether a country is doing "good" or doing "bad". Every country is using different standards for who get tested, which tests get used, which labs confirm results, what gets reported to the government, and how to code a "Covid death" with heart disease or a "Heart disease death" with Covid. The U.S. is using a very liberal guideline, counting deaths with lab-confirmed Covid as "Covid deaths", where a different country would count as "Heart failure".

It's not just country variations either. Even within the U.S., some states are reporting some data which others are not reporting, such as differences in nursing home counts or deaths at home vs hospital. Then CDC changes and adds to the reporting criteria mid-stream.

The only way the data would be relevant to make judgments just by comparing the raw data would be if everyone tested at the same rates with the same tests, and if hospitals, doctors, medical examiners all followed the exact same rules for reporting to the state or federal government...and didn't change the rules in the middle of the counts, or all changed exactly at the same time.

We can't know if the numbers for any reporting location are underreported or overreported. We can be sure that a lot of inconsistences are present because we know that not everyone is using the same set of rules. The "counting" is an exercise in math, not science.

 

I keep mentioning British Columbia because they're a good test for what we can--and perhaps cannot--do in North America. They're in the process of opening types of businesses they shut down and we will have reliable information on their progress.

At this time, I think a BC resident would have to be extraordinarily unlucky to get COVID-19 in the community. Yesterday, BC had 15 new cases.

How much can they open up and keep the virus suppressed?

We have a federal government bureaucrat and cruise ship industry toady pushing for opening up BC to Alaska cruises. There is always someone willing to screw things up for money. BTW, I don't think there's a chance in hell people are going to cruise to Alaska from Vancouver.

 

Your article is about a different virus - SARS.
What we have now is COVID -19.
SARS went away all by itself.

Global SARS Outbreak, 2003
How many people contracted SARS worldwide during the 2003 outbreak? How many people died of SARS worldwide?
During November 2002 through July 2003, a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with severe acute respiratory syndrome that was accompanied by either pneumonia or respiratory distress syndrome (probable cases), according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Of these, 774 died. By late July 2003, no new cases were being reported, and WHO declared the global outbreak to be over. For more information on the global SARS outbreak of 2003, visit WHO’s SARS websiteExternal

 

Sorry, sloppy post on my part.

Clarification: ..Manhattan's China Town has the densest population of immigrants (Western Hemisphere), and New York City has the largest ethnic population outside Asia.

(For a single city....not to be compared to entire statewide counts in the U.S., or to Asian countries in the Eastern Hemisphere.)

 

SARS-Covid2 is in the same family as the original SARS. It's a mutation. A lot of scientists are using SARS findings and research for help with trying to understand this current "cousin" of SARS.

 

I hope you have that rant saved in WORD or something. I hate to think of you typing it over and over.

 

Never underestimate the motivation of extroverts!

And why not? Alaskans would be taking a larger risk of contagion from BC'ers than the other way around.

 

Why are you particularly interested in tracheal intubation? My concerns would be focused on getting the Chinese government to openly share medical data. They should be pressured to live up to this responsibility.

All this Trump finger-pointing is nonsense. We need PPE for front-line workers who interface with lots of people, or must be close to them. N100 masks with HEPA filters. Goggles or face shields. We need to look at economic activities we want to keep alive and see how we can manage it safely.

If people feel safe, they'll go out. And they won't feel safe if the virus hasn't been suppressed. Let's keep businesses big and small alive until we see they're no longer viable even if we have a vaccine and effective treatments. Most of the economy can go ahead if we can keep workers and clients safe.

Trump needs to use the Defense Production Act to make sure truly effective PPE is widely available. Masks, HEPA filters, and eye protection can be had for under $100.

 

Cruise passengers from Europe and the United States are the problem. You could at this point include some Canadian provinces. I don't think most British Columbians want to open the border, either.

If you want to drive through BC to Alaska, you should have to quarantine at your expense for two weeks. A reliable anti-body test might get that waived if we can get such a test.

 

I think the test you took is rather good and not this horrible 15 minutes thing they use in the US.
But tha consider this, when you go back to work, especially in your profession, us after each client a UV-C light to sanitize the room and the air.
Takes about 15 minutes. Naturally nobody can be in that room during that time. There a portable lights on the market, with remote control and timer. They do in 20 minutes a 500 square feet room.
I have installed in my business UV-C lights which switch on at midnight, timer, and than run for 1 hour.
In the morning the place is sanitized.
I hour is overkill, but than, better overkill

 

Agree mostly. However those 'different rules' are part and parcel of a nation's response.

 

1) We're starting to feel that way here, too. We've had 10 new cases in 24 hours, and no deaths in the past 4 days ... and that's the entire country, not just my state. My state has only had 1 new infection in 24 hours, despite many thousands of tests. Crucially though, recent infections have all been via known cases/clusters - which is significant. It means none were via random untraceable community transmission.

2) Not much. If we want more of the same (and therefore faster economic recovery), we have to continue to be cautious for a while yet.

3) The cruise ship industry is dead. People will never return to it in the same numbers they did. A few reckless bargain hunters maybe, but that won't sustain a massive industry. And yes, there is always someone willing to screw things up for money.

 

Great idea. Hope more businesses, transport operators, schools etc do the same.

 

Always liked Alaska. More reason than ever, now.

 

Yes, they are, and the differences make comparisons between countries not too useful. The U.S. is counting people with mild-moderate symptoms of Covid who die of end-stage final heart disease as a Covid death, as long as they tested positive.

That makes counting here "streamlined", easy, and consistent, but makes the U.S. mortality numbers look very high by comparison to a country which would count the same death as a heart disease death.

 

Not sure that's where the major disparities lie. Testing protocols seem to be a much bigger issue.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17436985

Neoliberalism (as ideology) "postulates that the reduction of state interventions in economic and social activities and the deregulation of labour and financial markets, as well as of commerce and investments, have liberated the enormous potential of capitalism to create an unprecedented era of social well-being in the world's population".

Plenty of meaning there.

But to be more specific (in MMT terms, which is a description of how money is actually created):
neoliberalism results in the denial of the policy choices available to currency-issuing sovereign governments, ie neoliberalism insists that money can only be created in the private sector, which means sovereign governments must tax or borrow before they can spend, and are therefore beholden to private financial interests.

False ideology. Sovereign currency-issuing governments are constrained by available resources and the nation's productive capacity, not money.

So, with definition supplied, I hope this is all sorted.

Fundamentally disproved above. Your neoliberal ideology (as defined above) is responsible for your erroneous concept of "non dependent private sector taxpayers". All citizens are equal before the Law. Your division of citizens into "dependent and independent taxpayers" is itself ideological.

OTOH, everyone has something to contribute and everyone can be guaranteed the right to participate, because it is both possible, and a necessity, for "an economy that works for all".

So in contrast to your conception of (implied...unworthy) "dependent taxpayers", I contend my bolded statement is NOT ideological but MORAL, because today's highly productive economies CAN guarantee universal above poverty participation in the economy.

Like I said, neoliberalism (as defined in MMT) does make us all dog-eat-dog competitors, so I won't bother disputing your conclusions.

(Note: the Left attacks the Right for being too stingy, and the Right attacks the Left for being too profligate, yet they are both beholden to neoliberal balanced budget mythology, which results in endless silly political games).

At least Krugman is now saying that governments don't need to worry about paying down covid19 rescue debt, because borrowing costs are near zero for the foreseeable future.

 

The USA ended up having a comparatively great day. ~20,000 new cases and 750 deaths. Even compared to the low numbers from the last couple of sundays, those numbers are very significant improvements. And I know you will delve into the report with much more detail, so I would just like to take the opportunity to update my report on how the States are doing. You can find me previous posting of this information here: http://politicalforum.com/index.php...-in-the-world.569531/page-324#post-1071656119

One difference is that I added a couple of new categories in the Diff Grouping under each State. Specifically, I added "Cases (PC) Growth" and "Deaths (PC) Growth." I know I ****ed up the formula a bit, but essentially if you ignore the whole number, you will see the percentage growth from last week to this week for each of those categories. So Arizona saw its Cases, per Capita, increase by 28.7% and it's deaths, per Capita, increase by 48.1%.

Here's the Data, posted in groups of 12 and ranked according to the mortality rate:











Some of the big findings: Arizona continues to claim the spot with the worst mortality in the country, followed by Michigan, Connecticut, and Louisiana (same as last week by the way). New Jersey jumped up 3 spots and Pennsylvania jumped 14 spots, all the way to number 7. The States with the best mortality rate almost stayed the exact same as last week. By the way, the number just above the name of the States is the ranking based on that metric, so you can quickly find how your own State (or the State which you'd like to know) ranks based on the mortality of the virus.

In terms of moving, unsurprisingly Pennsylvania saw the largest jump in mortality rate. Going up by 1.587%. Arizona maintained its top spot because it's mortality rate also got worse by 1.481%, which is a slightly smaller margin than Pennsylvania. New Hampshire, Missouri, and Connecticut round out the top 5 in terms of the mortality rate getting worse. In terms of the mortality rate getting better, Minnesota did the best by far, seeing it's mortality rate drop by 1.16%. It was the only State to see it's mortality rate drop by more than 0.5% even and it was enough to drop Minnesota from 7th worse down to 18th. Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, and Nebraska round out the top 5 in terms of improving mortality rate (range of -0.261% to -0.404%).

As for the hotspots to develop over the last week, the States which saw its Cases increase by the largest percentage were: Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and Kentucky. The range was 69.2% growth to 32% growth. New York, Vermont, Alaska, Hawaii, and Montana were the five best States, in terms of percentage growth of new cases. The range was 6% for New York down to 1.8% for Montana.

If you instead use the raw PC case count change, the top five States were: Rhode Island, Nebraska, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Delaware. The range being 1700 new cases, per capita, down to 1281 new cases, per capita. The five best States in terms of new cases per capita were: Montana, Hawaii, Alaska, Vermont, and West Virginia. The range being 7.7 new cases, per capita, for Montana up to 93.6 new cases, per capita, for West Virginia.

The new deaths are grew the fastest in the following States: South Dakota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Iowa. The range being 61.9% growth for South Dakota down to 30.4% growth for Iowa. The States with the slowest increase to their deaths per capita were: Montana, Wyoming, Vermont, Hawaii, and Idaho. The range being a 6.3% growth for Idaho down to a completely flat (i.e. they lost no new lives) for Wyoming and Montana.

If you instead use the raw PC death count change, the top five States were: New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvannia. The range going from +155.3 new deaths, per capita, for NJ down to +98.6 new deaths, per capita for PA. The five slowest risers were: Montana, Wyoming, Hawaii, Alaska, and Vermont with a range of 0 new deaths per capita for Wyoming and Montana to 1.60 new deaths, per capita, for Vermont.

 

The percent positive charts for today.
I changed the US, Italy and germany chart to start with the peak positives as opposed to peak cases. Makes the curve fits much better,

Georgia and Florida seem to be humming along. Although the look a little "nervous."




The high positives on the same day as the high tests makes me think they are chasing a few hot spots.