Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Yes, I mean, not in so many words, but little by little, discussing these themes with her as time goes by. But anyway, like I said, this was not just for you; whoever is reading this and has kids might benefit. I'm speaking in general terms even though I used your example for specific wording.

Masks: I don't know about European standards as much as I do about American ones. I know that your FFP2 respirators are roughly equivalent to our N95s. But I'm more interested in ASTM level 3 masks. They can be bought from other countries and shipped to Europe. FDA-certified ASTM level 3 facemasks have the blown melt filter that is used in N95s too, and can achieve up to 98% filtration of particles of 0.1 micron, thus going even above N95's (and FFP2s which are rated 94% at 0.3 micron), provided that they have a tight seal. As they are simple surgical masks (although thicker and smoother and more wet-proof than the flimsy stuff that is not ASTM level 3) they would leak on the sides. So, two former Apple engineers have designed a neoprene rubber sheet brace which goes around the mask with a loop behind the head, which greatly enhances the seal of a surgical ASTM level 3 mask. With the brace, these masks have confirmed the 98% filtration at 0.1 micron, in tests done at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine (America's #3 top-ranked medical school). The two engineers placed the template for the rubber brace on their website, open source, free, not-for-profit. One can download the template and use it to cut off a brace from a neoprene rubber sheet (they tell you where to get those and what number and size to buy) and with a simple pair of scissors you can make your own brace at home. I did do it, and I made one for each family member (me, my wife, daughter, son, and daughter-in law) and after some use two snapped and I made more. I've made so far some ten braces with one rubber sheet and I have space for 5 more (one sheet is enough for 15 braces and costs about $20 to $25). It's been several months of daily use and only two snapped, the others continue to work fine. So one sheet can last for several months. The braces are comfortable, reusable, washable, and deliver perfect seal. Get the instructions and download the template at fixthemask.com - they also teach you how to make a provisional brace simply interlacing three common rubber bands while you wait for the shipment of the neoprene rubber sheet. It's genius.

Now they are crowd-sourcing to make a silicone version that has some spikes to make the seal even better around the nose, and they ask for contributions to cover the costs. I pledged 60 bucks for 5 silicone braces, one for each family member as these are supposed to be durable and snapping-proof. They should be delivered in October. Meanwhile I'm happy (and much safer) with my rubber braces. The beauty is, N95s or FFP2 masks are uncomfortable to wear long-term, but ASTM surgical masks are soft and comfortable, and there is no discomfort with long-term use, and they are much more available (like in boxes of 50 for $60) than N95 respirators. I do have enough N95s too, but I find that I end up only wearing the N95s in certain very contaminated situations (in which case I don an N95 and ON TOP OF IT I place an ASTM level 3 mask, and on top of both the rubber brace (I cut a slightly longer one to account for the thicker apparatus; now the longer ones stopped snapping; the two that snapped did, because I stretched them too much by putting them on top of both an N95 and an ASTM). Then I also don medical-grade goggles, and depending on what I'm doing even a face shield for even higher protection, on top of everything; I look like a bee tender when I have the full thing on). I figure that with this apparatus I'm the most protected person among my colleagues and even though I do get daily exposure to the virus in my field of professional activity, I haven't caught it and neither has my wife (who shares the same profession with me).

I find that this is very helpful information and I like to diffuse it (although I have nothing to do with the two female former Apple engineers beyond the fact that I think that they are both very cute; you'll see them in instructional video clips). I actually forwarded it to the infection control officers in my organization... and they shrugged their shoulders and didn't act on it... bummer. Anyway, I've mentioned it to my colleagues and only one (in addition to my wife) has embraced the idea. I don't know why. It's a simple and elegant solution... it should be much more diffused. If people don't want the hassle of waiting ten days for the neoprene sheet to arrive, and print the template, cut it off, and make the braces (each one takes some half an hour to make), they should at least use the three rubber bands technique which already greatly enhances the seal. I don't understand why people don't jump on this and adhere to it. Anyway, I'm very protected and so is my family; I just wish that more people benefited from it. Instead people keep wearing barely effective cloth masks when for a few bucks they could get much better protection.

 

Other tan Texas thing are settling down a bit.
The death rate should start to move down towards the 600 a day rate.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-019, posted 2020-08-020, 15:30 GMT +2, #12041.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-019, posted 2020-08-020, 15:50 GMT +2, #12042.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Thursday, 2020-08-020 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍** 22,850,287 **֍֍
+281,088 new C19 cases over the day before, more +cases than the Thursday before.
155 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 86 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
The world will go over 23 million confirmed C19 cases today, 2020-08-021.
There have now been 796,378 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,183 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +256,071 new C19 cases per day and +5,665 deaths per day.
1,234 Brazilian, 1,087 US-American, 981 Indian, 707 Mexican & 204 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,822 (-95 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The number of daily deaths (6,183) for the day currently being analysed was considerably less than the Thursday directly before and slightly less than the three Thursdays before that.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was 1 nation-rubrik-jump: Vietnam

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

Currently at 177,424 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.28% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before it was 22.32%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.4%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 112,423 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 14.12% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 14.07%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.40% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. Mexico is currently ahead of India, but India, which just crossed over the 50,000-death line on 2020-08-015, is accruing more deaths per day on the average than Mexico, so, soon India will surpass Mexico. I suspect that both will reach 100,000 total deaths within days of each other.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for India (current): 976 per day (the day before: 979)
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 980 per day (the day before: 989)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,001 per day (the day before: 1,029)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

47 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Sweden crossing over the 1,000,000 test-line on 2020-08-020; of those 47, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 8 million total tests, Spain is next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.

FACIT: on 2020-08-020, the world travelled from 22.57 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 22.6, 22.7 and 22.8 million to land at 22.85 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 23 million confirmed COVID-19 cases today, 2020-08-021.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-019, posted 2020-08-020, 15:50 GMT +2, #12042.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-020, posted 2020-08-021, 08:43 GMT +2, #12053.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Thursday, 2020-08-020 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,746,272*****
+45,341 new COVID-19 cases, less cases than the Thursday before.
There are now 177,424 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,087 of them were recorded on this day.
FLORIDA went over the the 10,000 total C19 death-mark on 2020-08-020.
USA weekly average = 47,229 new infections & 1,001 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 2nd day in a row.
16,817 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-58 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 73.7 million.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The USA ended the fourth day of this new week at 5.75 million C19 cases.

In short: the rolling average in cases is going down, while the rolling average in deaths continues to rise, at least it did until 2020-08-017 and then dropped some on 2020-08-018, 2020-08-019 and now, on 2020-08-020. Now remains to be seen whether this is a blip in the sinus curve or perhaps the beginning of a trend. The USA has now had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 24 continuous days.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

There were less daily deaths on this day (1,087) than on the four Thursdays before.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were 2 unit/rubrik changes on this day: OK and FL.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It should be noted that not long from now, both the US Military (currently: 49,778 ) and the Dept. of Veterans Affairs (curently: 48,368 ) will go over 50,000 total C19 cases. Also, the Navajo Nation (currently: 9,500) is moving quickly toward 5-digit status of 10,000 total C19 cases, as well. And the only Unit in the USA with under 1,000 total C19 cases, the Western Territories (Guam & Northern Marianas Islands), now have a total of 758 C19 cases.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Almost 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 177,424 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of CHATANOOGA, or somewhat less than SPRING VALLEY, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently +3,677 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 4.3 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+2,718 ), to note.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Today, in Covid-19-land, South Africa will break over 600,000 C19 cases, Israel will go over 100,000 C19 cases and the world, now already at 22.9 million C19 cases, will go over the 23 million mark by the end of this day.

India will go over 3 million C19 cases tomorrow, 2020-08-022.

 

Speaking of breaking over 600,000 Cases it looks like Texas will hit that milestone in the next two days with a moving average of 6700.

 

The South better prepare for a double banger during c19, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2.
2 Hurricanes in the Gulf, never heard of such a thing.
When ever you think 2020 can not get wilder, than just wait for the next day.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-020, posted 2020-08-021, 08:43 GMT +2, #12053.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-020, posted 2020-08-021, 08:59 GMT +2, #12054.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-08-021 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
The world goes over 23 million confirmed C19 cases

֍֍*** 23,108,416 ***֍֍
+258,129 new C19 cases over the day before, considerably LESS +cases than the Friday before.
157 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 87 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
Both Ukraine and Israel went over the 100,000-mark on this day.
There have now been 802,600 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,222 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +251,878 new C19 cases per day and +5,705 deaths per day.
1,776 US-American, 1,031 Brazilian, 953 Indian, 625 Mexican & 385 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,828 (+6 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

If you look at the Excel table, you can see that in one mathematical month, from 2020-07-021 through 2020-08-021, our world jumped EIGHT MILLION C19 cases.

There is a 606 daily death disparity in the USA between my Excel table and WorldOMeter, but there is only a 160 daily death disparity worldwide, which means there also were retroactive changes elsewhere, probably spread across many nations. See: DISCLAIMER.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The number of daily deaths (6,222) for the day currently being analysed was somewhat more than than the Friday directly before and pretty much in-line with the three Fridays before that.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were 5 nation-rubrik-jumps, all in the category of total C19 cases: Reunion, Lesoth,Libya, Ukraine and Israel.

I did a quick analysis on Israel here on 2020-08-002, 19 days before:
Quick ISRAEL analysis from 2020-03-002 to 2020-08-00, posted 2020-08-002, 21:57 GMT +2, #11661.

And a follow-up here, on 2020-08-014, 7 days before:
Israel update, posted 2020-08-014, 23:01 GMT +2, #11922.

Of the 29 nations that now have more than 100,000 confirmed C19 cases, Israel has the 2nd smallest population (9.2 million), after Quatar (2.8 million).

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

What is disconcerting about this listing of the +1,000 (or considerably more) new C19 cases is the geographical diversity that we see. Let's look at that list by continent:

North America: USA
Middle America: Mexico, Costa Rica,
South America: Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia
Europe: Russia, France, Spain, Ukraine, Germany, Romania, UK
Middle East: Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel,
Asia: India, Phillipines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Japan
Africa: South Africa, Ethiopia, Morocco

I'll let you draw your own conclusions about that. I bolded four countries that you would probably not expect to see on this list.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

Currently at 179,200 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.33% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before it was 22.28%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has generally receded from over 25.5% to now 22.4%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 113,454 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 14.14% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 14.12%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.47% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. When each of those nations goes over 60,000 deaths, then I will start an extrapolation for each similar to what I did with Brazil starting on 2020-06-024. Mexico will likely cross over the 60,000-death line tomorrow, 2020-08-023, whereas India will do it sometime next week, I suspect, on Tuesday or Wednesday.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for India (current): 971 per day (the day before: 976)
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 983 per day (the day before: 980)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,095 per day (the day before: 1,001)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA has now had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 25 continuous days.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

47 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Sweden crossing over the 1,000,000 test-line on 2020-08-020; of those 47, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 8 million total tests, Spain is next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.



FACIT: on 2020-08-021, the world travelled from 22.85 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 22.8, 23.0 and 23.1 million to land at 23.10 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 24 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, 2020-08-025, Wednesday at the very latest.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-020, posted 2020-08-021, 08:59 GMT +2, #12054.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-021, posted 2020-08-022, 11:00 GMT +2, #12058.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Friday, 2020-08-021 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,796,727*****
+50,455 new COVID-19 cases, 10,000 less cases than the Friday before.
The US-Military went over 50,000 total confirmed C19 cases on this day.
Texas will likely go over 600,000 total confirmed C19 cases today, 2020-08-022.
Florida will likely go over 600,000 total confirmed C19 cases tomorrow, 2020-08-023.
There are now 179,200 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,776* of them were recorded on this day.
Georgia will go over 5,000 total C19 deaths today, 2020-08-022.
USA weekly average = 45,780 new infections & 1,095 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 3rd day in a row.
16,801 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-16 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 74.7 million.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The USA ended the fifth day of this new week just shy of 5.8 million C19 cases.

*There is a 606 daily death disparity in the USA between my Excel table and WorldOMeter, but there is only a 160 daily death disparity worldwide, which means there also were retroactive changes elsewhere, probably spread across many nations. See: DISCLAIMER. You can see the death shift for the USA on 2020-08-020 (two days ago) here:



When I did the analysis for 2020-08-020, the EOD table from WorldOMeter showed 177,424 deaths. WorldOMeter updated that number to 178,030 very late in the day on 2020-08-021. My +figure, for the purposes of calculation, is correct, because those 606 deaths had not yet been accounted for here in PF.

There were considerable more daily deaths on this day (1,776) than on the four Fridays before.

In short: the rolling average in cases is going down, while the rolling average in deaths generally continues to rise. The USA has now had an aveage of over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths per day for 25 continuous days.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was 1 unit/rubrik change on this day: the US-Military

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It should be noted that not long from now, now that the the US Military has sprung over the 50,000-line, the Dept. of Veterans Affairs (curently: 48,896) will soon also go over the 50,000-line, meaning that those currently in or formerly associated with the US-Military who have contracted C19 will total 100,000.

Also, the Navajo Nation (currently: 9,531) is moving quickly toward 5-digit status of 10,000 total C19 cases, as well.

And the only Unit in the USA with under 1,000 total C19 cases, the Western Territories (Guam & Northern Marianas Islands), now has a total of 821 C19 cases, placing that Unit now 179 shy of the 1,000-case mark. The day will also likely come when the 57 Units that had passed the 1,000-mark will have also passed the 5,000 mark. This could very well happen by Christmas Day of this year.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. As you can see from the rubrik-worktable above this screenshot, California has lead if new cases in four of the 5 days thus far this week. Texas lead on Tuesday. Arizona has stayed under 1,000 new cases every day this week thus far. Oklahoma has joined the 1,000-list and Indiana has been on for a number of days, non-consecutively.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Almost 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 179,200 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of FORT LAUDERDALE, or exactly the population of PROVIDENCE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently +4,603 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.4 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+2,888 ), to note. Our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Can you PM me links to those masks?

 

INDIA WILL GO OVER THREE MILLION COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-08-022​

Here the latest stats for India:



Our world's second largest nation, India, cracked the 2 million mark on Thursday, 2020-08-006. Today, at the beginning of the day, 2020-08-022, it is only -26,632 away from the 3 million mark, which it will easily clear today. This means that India will have gone from 2 million to 3 million cases in 16 days time.

Also, India has had more than +60,000 new C19 cases on 13 of the last 16 days. It has lead over the USA on, I believe, most all of those days.

Brazil is currently at 3.54 million C19 cases, so for a while, both Brazil and India will be together in the 3 million and then in the 4 million zone. There is a strong possibility that India overtakes Brazil in the next 30 days and then becomes rank 2 among all nations in terms of total COVID-19 cases. There is even the possibility that by the end of November 2020, India will also overtake the USA in terms of total cases. Wait and see. This would not be all to surprising since India's population is 4 times that of the USA.

Also, India is now just more than 44,000 away from the gruesome 100,000 death line. There is a good possibility that India will overtake Mexico in total deaths, but I expect both of those nations to land at the 100,000 death mark in close proximity to each other.

-Stat

 

RUSSIA IS NOW LESS THAN 50,000 AWAY FROM 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES:​

Whether or not we can trust the Russian numbers is not the issue. To quote one famous individual from the last weeks: "it is what it is". (*cough, cough*)

EXTRAPOLATION:​

As of today (and this screenshot is already marked for the end of day, 2020-08-022 as Russia only publishes final numbers once per day, between 10-12 Moscow time), Russia is now -48,103 away from the million-mark. Seeing a downward drop of -245 from 2020-08-002 to 2020-08-009, then down to -193 from 2020-08-009 to 2020-08-016, then down to -186 but momentarily only 6 days instead of 7, from 2020-08-016 to 2020-08-022) and assuming that by tomorrow, that average will have dropped to +180, the mean of those three values would be -206, which I will now handicap to -195.

This means a handicapped mean of -195 less daily cases for each weekly average, we can assume an daily average of +4,664 for the next 7 days, +4,469 for the 7 days following, +4,274 for the 7 days following and +4,079 for the 7 days following and so forth and so on.

So, mathematically that means: 4,664 * 7 = 32,648. 951,857 + 32,543 = 984,505. So, by Saturday, 2020-08-029, Russia should be about 15,495 away from 1,000,000. Today in one week, I will quote this posting to see how accurate it was.

Further: the following 7 days: 4,469 *7 = 31,283. 984,505 + 31,283 = 1,015,788, meaning that likely, on Wednesday (2020-09-002) in the middle of that 7-day spread, Russia will go over the 1-million-line.

You know, this math is really almost too easy. The downward slope of +cases in Russia, when you look at it with the trained eye, is actually far too even, not irregular enough to be natural. This has been going on since Russia's +10,000-case fever broke from 2020-05-015 to 2020-05-016. I am just going to leave it at that....

Doubtless, in the next 10-12 days, Russia will become the 4th nation on our planet to go into the seven-digit range in C19-cases, with South Africa, Peru, Mexico and Colombia not all that far behind.

-Stat

 

Per Worldometers as of 8/21/2020 the official death toll in the USA was 179,200.

Back on 7/31/2020 the official death toll was 157k.

I just want to extract a reference to the CDC from this article since I do not have another source for this as yet.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coro...source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

If we make the assumption that ALL deaths over and above the anticipated number are either as a DIRECT or INDIRECT result of the IMPACT of the virus on our ability to function as a society then our current death toll is under counted by 58k.

Using that math we are at 237,000 deaths and possibly more given that we are probably still under counting the last 3 weeks that are not included in the 58k.

I have long suspected this was happening but the degree to which this is happening appears to on the order of 32% which is quite staggering..

The worst part of this is KNOWING that other nations like Germany and Australia implemented the proper Pandemic protocols and procedures and thereby avoided having a horrendous number of deaths.

Leadership matters and a LACK of leadership ends up causing NEEDLESS deaths.

 

Representative Dan Meuser (R-PA-09) has tested positive for COVID-19.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-021, posted 2020-08-022, 11:00 GMT +2, #12058.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-021, posted 2020-08-022, 11:30 GMT +2, #12059.
India will go over 3 million cases today, posted 2020-08-022, 11:57 GMT +2, #12061.
Russia: extrapolation toward 1 million cases, posted 2020-08-022, 12:43 GMT +2, #12062.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-08-022 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍*** 23,370,910 ***֍֍
+262,494 new C19 cases over the day before, more +cases than the Saturday before.
157 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 87 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
INDIA has a record-breaking +70,000 new C19 cases & goes over 3,000,000 total C19 cases on the same day.

There have now been 807,943 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,343 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +252,185 new C19 cases per day and +5,674 deaths per day.
974 US-American, 918 Indian, 823 Brazilian, 504 Mexican & 400 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,716 (-112 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The number of daily deaths (5,343) for the day currently being analysed was less than the 4 Saturdays before.

2020-08-022 was INDIA day: INDIA broke over the +70,000 new case barrier and also broke over 3 million total C19 cases, all on the same day. It took 16 days for India to get from 2 million to 3 million and the doubling from 1.5 million to 3 million was: 25 days. So, INDIA is now moving at a pace where the USA was at its peak in the "summer surge".

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was 1 nation-rubrik-jump: Morocco

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

Currently at 178,174 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.30% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before it was 22.33%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has generally receded from over 25.5% to now 22.4%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 114,277 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 14.14% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was also 14.14%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.44% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. When each of those nations goes over 60,000 deaths, then I will start an extrapolation for each similar to what I did with Brazil starting on 2020-06-024. Mexico will likely cross over the 60,000-death line today, 2020-08-023, whereas India will do it sometime next week, I suspect, on Tuesday or Wednesday.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for India (current): 966 per day (the day before: 971)
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 997 per day (the day before: 983)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,081 per day (the day before: 1,095)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA has now had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 26 continuous days.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

47 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Sweden crossing over the 1,000,000 test-line on 2020-08-020; of those 47, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 8 million total tests, Spain is next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.



FACIT: on 2020-08-022, the world travelled from 23.10 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 23.2 and 23.3 million to land at 23.37 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 24 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, 2020-08-025, Wednesday at the very latest.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-021, posted 2020-08-022, 11:30 GMT +2, #12059.
India will go over 3 million cases today, posted 2020-08-022, 11:57 GMT +2, #12061.
Russia: extrapolation toward 1 million cases, posted 2020-08-022, 12:43 GMT +2, #12062.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-022, posted 2020-08-023, 08:40 GMT +2, #12065

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Saturday, 2020-08-022 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,841,428*****
+44,701 new COVID-19 cases, 9,000 less cases than the Saturday before.
Texas went over 600,000 total confirmed C19 cases on this day.
Florida will likely go over 600,000 total confirmed C19 cases today, 2020-08-023.
There are now 180,174 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 974 of them were recorded on this day.
Georgia went over 5,000 total C19 deaths on this day.
USA weekly average = 44,520 new infections & 1,081 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 4th day in a row.
16,739 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-62 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 75.47 million.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The USA ended the sixth day of this new week at 5.84 million C19 cases.

There were less daily deaths on this day (976) than on the Saturday before, but the level of deaths was almost identical to 2 Saturdays before. Over the last 5 Saturdays, the deaths have jumped back and forth between the low 900 to 1,100 range.

In short: the rolling average in cases is going down, while the rolling average in deaths generally continues to rise. The USA has now had an aveage of over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths per day for 26 continuous days.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were no unit/rubrik changes on this day.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It should be noted that not long from now, now that the the US Military has sprung over the 50,000-line, the Dept. of Veterans Affairs (curently: 49,057) will soon also go over the 50,000-line, meaning that those currently in or formerly associated with the US-Military who have contracted C19 will total 100,000.

Also, the Navajo Nation (currently: 9,531) is moving quickly toward 5-digit status of 10,000 total C19 cases, as well.

And the only Unit in the USA with under 1,000 total C19 cases, the Western Territories (Guam & Northern Marianas Islands), now has a total of 821 C19 cases, placing that Unit now 179 shy of the 1,000-case mark. The day will also likely come when the 57 Units that had passed the 1,000-mark will have also passed the 5,000 mark. This could very well happen by Christmas Day of this year.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. As you can see from the rubrik-worktable above this screenshot, California has lead in new cases in 5 of the 6 days thus far this week. Texas lead on Tuesday. Arizona has stayed under 1,000 new cases every day this week thus far.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Circa 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 180,174 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of PROVIDENCE, or slightly less than the population of HARLEM, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently +4,727 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.6 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+3,109), to note. Our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

INDIA SURPASSED THREE MILLION COVID-19 CASES ON 2020-08-022​

As predicted yesterday, India, our world's second most populous nation, sailed easily over the 3,000,000 total COVID-19 case-line. On that same day, India also broke the +70,000 barrier in C19 cases as well. It took India 16 days to get from 2 million to 3 million and 25 days to double from 1.5 million to 3 million. So, INDIA is now moving at a pace where the USA was at its peak in the "summer surge".

Here the excel table for India as it now stands:



Columns P, Q and R are not complete yet, I will be inputting the total performed case day all the way back to April slowly, but surely.

I suspect that we will end this week (today) with India at slightly over +65,500 cases on the average. Right now, it stands at 64,890. At the end of the last week, it was +61,882, so India's daily average is growing.

To contrast, Brazil, currently rank 2 among all nations, is probably going to end the week at around +37,000, well under India's average. The average for the week before was +43,516, so Brazil's daily average is shrinking.

Right now, India is accumulating, on the average, 28,000 more cases per day than Brazil. Looking at how fast the two are moving in opposite directions, let's take 36,000 as a mean over the next three weeks (it will grow to more than that). This is probably a very conservative mean, but let's start there.

At EOD on 2020-08-022, India had 3,043,436 total cases, while Brazil ended the day with 3,852,698 cases. This means that right now, India is 809,262 cases behind Brazil.

Simple, back-of-the-envelope-math: 809,262 / 36,000 = 22.5 days. So, assuming these conditions happen and hold, on Monday, September 14th, 2020 - at the very latest, India will overtake Brazil in total C19 cases and assume rank 2 among the nations. Now, this could happen sooner if the mean value over three weeks shoots up far farther than 36,000 (difference in daily cases between India and Brazil), but let's start with that.

On Monday, August 31st, I will quote this posting and report back how the weekly +C19 case averages actually worked out for the week and there we will be able to see if this rough projection is holding, or not.

One thing is now for sure, after many days of observations: INDIA is now rank 1 in daily +C19 cases, over the USA, Brazil and Colombia.

If you would like to inform yourself more about how the pandemic is affecting India, the WIKI for this subject is pretty good.

Here is a relatively current map of India (from 2020-08-019), showing the case intensity per state:




At the wiki is a table of the 28 states and 8 union territories of India and how they are suffering. Here a screenshot of that table, sorted by highest number of cases (dated, 2020-08-022, shortly before the 3 million mark):



9 states within India have more than 100,000 C-19 cases, and the state with the most, Maharashtra, currently has has around 657,000 cases, which is just slightly less than the US-state of California,which ended the day on 2020-08-020 with 664,959 cases. Only, California's population is 40 million residents, while Maharashtra's is: 122.7 million, 3.1 times larger than California. And here's the real kicker: Maharashtra is not the most populous state in India. It's the 2nd most populous.

The most populous state in India is Uttar Pradesh (which literally means: North Territory), with 237 million residents:



Just imagine what is going to happen when testing kicks into full swing in Uttar Pradesh....and just to get some more perpective here, the Governor of Uttar Pradesh governs over a population that would be more than 2/3 of the population of the USA.

And here, same date, by total deaths:



Here, Maharashtra also leads in total deaths, way above the field. Put shortly, in terms of deaths, Mahrashtra is the New York of India. But in terms of demographic, Maharashtra, with Bombay (Mumbai) as it's state capitol, is by far the most industrialized state in India. What we call the industrial midwest in the USA or Lombardy in Italy of the Ruhr-area of Germany would be Maharashtra in India:



All of that being said, if you look at the first map above, the +daily case-itensity in Uttar Pradesh seems to be lightening up, while it is intensifying in other parts of the nation. I am wondering if we are seeing a shift in hotspots in India as we have also encountered in the USA, but my knowledge of the country is just too limited to be able to make a claim like that - yet.

Now, my knowledge base of India is still very limited, but as promised, I am working to reduce this deficit.

To note, the Capitol City of India, New Delhi, is in the state of Delhi, which is currently rank 6 in total cases (158,604, comparable to the US state of North Carolina) and rank 4 in total deaths (4,270, comparable to the US state of Connecticut)

There is good reason to believe that, in absence of a vaccine, India will also surpass the USA in total cases and quite possible, also in total deaths by sometime in the spring of 2021. It could even happen by Christmas. When looking at such a massive (and in many places, very overcrowded) population, logic would dictate that this is a real possibility.

I will be putting out a complete analysis of India alone at least once a month. There is so much to learn about this land.

-Stat

PS. Are there any member of PF who are from India and can help with this information??

 

Or maybe they died of laughter at the "moon of cheese" whopper fallacies that you, OP and one or two usual suspects engage in post after post.

The LARP continues.

See Mackay, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

 

INDIA vs. BRAZIL EXTRAPOLATION - A CRITICAL CORRECTION​

Yesterday, I wrote this:

The number from Brazil was not correct, but the idea behind the extrapolation still holds. So, here the excel tables for both India and Brazil from EOD on 2020-08-023:





So, the real numbers going into this week:

Brazil 3,605,783 - India 3,105,185 = Brazil +500,598. So, India is not 809,262 cases behind Brazil as I wrote yesterday, but rather, it is 500,598 cases behind. Sorry, for the error in the Brazil numbers: as I squinted at them yesterday, the 5 and the 8 switched places. BRAINFRY!!!!

Ok, that put aside, the error changes nothing on the method, but it does move the timetable up considerably.

India went from +58,491 average cases per day on the week ending 2020-08-009 to 61,883 average cases per day on the week ending 2020-08-016, an average gain of +3,392 per day over the week before. India then went from 61,883 average cases per day on the week ending 2020-08-016 to 65,410 average cases per day on the week ending yesterday, 2020-08-023, an average gain of +3,527 per day over the week before. Therefore, handicapping this at yet another gain of over 3,000 per day on the average, let's take the mean of the two (although it will probably be more): +3,460, meaning that on Sunday, 2020-08-030, we could probably see a weekly average of 68,870 cases per day. Remember that number: 68,870.

Brazil went from +43,129 average cases per day on the week ending 2020-08-009 to 43,516 average cases per day on the week ending 2020-08-016, an average gain of +387 per day over the week before. However, Brazil then went from 43,516 average cases per day on the week ending 2020-08-016 to 37,941 average cases per day on the week ending yesterday, 2020-08-023, a steep average loss of -5,575 per day over the week before. Therefore, handicapping this at yet another loss of circa 5,000 per day on the average, let's take the mean of the two (although it will probably be more): -2,594, meaning that on Sunday, 2020-08-030, we could probably see a weekly average of 35,347 cases per day. Remember that number: 35,347.

Assuming that the trends continue as they have, then 68,870 -35,347 = 33,523, meaning that on the average, at least for the next week, India will be gaining 33,523 MORE C19 cases per day than Brazil.

So, closing the gap: 500,598 / 35,347 = 14.2 days. The extrapolation from yesterday, including a gradient for the second week, saw a time-period of 22.5 days.

One thing is for sure: by next Sunday, the C19 gap between Brazil and India should close from +500,598 to around +253,169, if these figures hold. On next Monday, 2020-08-030, I will quote this posting instead of the one for yesterday in order to see how accurate the numbers ended up being.

It is certainly looking as if India is going to surpass Brazil in total C19 cases not this week, but rather, within the next week, depending on how are in each direction both nations go in their averages. Of course, it's always possible that Brazil suddenly sees another surge and whizzes up to +70,000 per day for a while or that India suddenly has a plateau (very unlikely), but there is no doubt that India is closing in fast on Brazil.

I wanted to get this out before the worldwide analysis today.

-Stat

 

RUSSIA IS NOW -43,251 AWAY FROM 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES:​

So, the extrapolation that I started on Saturday is up and running.

Here the figures from the end of last week:



Let's see if by the end of this week (on 2020-08-030) if we end up at an average of 4,664 cases per day and if that holds, we should be circa 15,000 cases away from the big 1,000,000 at the end of this week.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-022, posted 2020-08-023, 09:00 GMT +2, #12066.
India surpassed 3 million C19 cases / projection vis-a-vis Brazil, posted 2020-08-023, 10:01 GMT +2, #12067.
India extrapolation correction, posted 2020-08-024, 09:56 GMT +2, #12069.
Russia is -43,251 away from the million mark, extrapolation continues, posted 2020-08-024, 10:06 GMT +2, #12070.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-08-023 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍*** 23,577,908 ***֍֍
+206,998 new C19 cases over the day before, less +cases than the Sunday before.
158 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 87 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 812,194 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,251 of them were on this day.
Worldwide weekly rolling averages: +251,399 new C19 cases per day and +5,634 deaths per day.
846 Indian, 644 Mexican, 495 Brazilian, 430 US-American & 348 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,699 (-17 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You can see from the weekly averages that we had a stark reduction in average daily cases over the week before, from +257,367 on the Sunday ending on 2020-08-016, to +251,399 yesterday, ending last week. At the same time, the average daily deaths rose, from +5,593 on the Sunday ending on 2020-08-016, to +5,634 yesterday, ending last week. Since deaths tend to be a lagging indicator, even as the world is perhaps recovering from the so-called "Summer Surge of 2020", expect many more deaths to come.

The number of daily deaths (4,251) for the day currently being analysed was less than the 4 Sundays before.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

A number of critical events relative to the COVID-19 stats are happening right now:

1.) INDIA, INDIA, INDIA: for the first time, this last week, India crossed the +70,000 threshhold in daily cases and every day last week, had the most cases, above both the US and Brazil. India also crossed over the 3 million line. I have an extrapolation up and running as to when India is likely to surpass Brazil in total cases: India extrapolation correction, posted 2020-08-024, 09:56 GMT +2, #12069.

2.) Russia is now very close to the 1-million mark: Russia is -43,251 away from the million mark, extrapolation continues, posted 2020-08-024, 10:06 GMT +2, #12070.

3.) The daily cases in the USA are slowing down considerably, but daily deaths appear to be plateau'ing.

4.) A large number of countries crossed into new categories within the Rubrik worksheet. See: below.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was 1 nation-rubrik-jump on this day: Trinidad and Tobago. For the entire week, there was a total of 15 nation shifts, all of them within the total cases rubrik. In the total deaths rubrik, the statistic remained stabile.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +400 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

Currently at 180,604 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.24% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before it was 22.30%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has generally receded from over 25.5% to now 22.4%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 114,772 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 14.13% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 14.14%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.37% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. When each of those nations goes over 60,000 deaths, then I will start an extrapolation for each similar to what I did with Brazil starting on 2020-06-024.

Mexico crossed over the 60,000 death line on 2020-08-023. I have not done an excel-table workup for Mexico yet, but here were the deaths in Mexico from Monday to Sunday of this week (2020-08-017 through 2020-08-023): 214, 266, 751, 707, 625, 504 and 644 = 3,711 deaths in Mexico in this week. Average = 530. Mexico is currently 39,746 away from the 100,000 line. Therefore: 39,746 / 530 = 75 days. If Mexico maintains this pace, it will go over the 100,000 death line around October 21, 2020. India is going to get their more quickly. India is currently at 57,692 deaths and I suspect that by Thursday of this week, I will have an extrapolation up and running about that nation as well.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for India (current): 950 per day (the day before: 966)
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 985 per day (the day before: 997)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,068 per day (the day before: 1,081)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA has now had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 27 continuous days.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

47 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 47, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 8 million total tests, Spain is next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-08-023, the world travelled from 23.37 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 23.4 and 23.5 million to land at 23.58 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 24 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, 2020-08-025, Wednesday at the very latest.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-022, posted 2020-08-023, 09:00 GMT +2, #12066.
India surpassed 3 million C19 cases / projection vis-a-vis Brazil, posted 2020-08-023, 10:01 GMT +2, #12067.
India extrapolation correction, posted 2020-08-024, 09:56 GMT +2, #12069.
Russia is -43,251 away from the million mark, extrapolation continues, posted 2020-08-024, 10:06 GMT +2, #12070.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-023, posted 2020-08-024, 10:48 GMT +2, #12071

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Sunday, 2020-08-023 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,874,146*****
+32,718 new COVID-19 cases, the least +daily cases since 2020-06-022, 2 months ago.
Is the "Summer Surge" over?
Florida went over 600,000 total confirmed C19 cases on this day.
There are now 180,604 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 430 of them were recorded on this day.
USA weekly average = 43,931 new infections & 1,036 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 5th day in a row.
16,717 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-22 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 76.16 million.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The USA ended the week from 2020-08-017 through 2020-08-023 at 5.87 million C19 cases and jumped down into the +30,000-case range in daily C19 cases on 2020-08-023, a real surprise, the first time in the +30,000 range since 2020-06-023 and the smallest total +case number since 2020-06-022, right before the "Summer Surge" began. However, it should also be noted that the the daily reported performed tests has also dropped considerably, as you can see from columns P, Q and R of the excel table. When you don't test, then you don't find cases.

There were less daily deaths on this day (430) than on the four Sundays before.

In short: the rolling average in cases is going down, while the rolling average in deaths may have peaked and is now plateau'ing, when you look at the weekly average for the week before compared to this Sunday (+1,073 vs. +1,068). The USA has now had an average of over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths per day for 27 continuous days.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were no unit/rubrik changes on this day. For the entire week, there were three unit/rubrik changes, as you can see. For the coming two weeks, however, there is just a bevy of states hovering right under the next rubrik-line, so as has often happened, expect a lot of states to have changes all at once.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It would be appropriate to note that the USA now has 3 states with over +600,000 cases apiece (and California will surely go over 700,000 by the end of the week starting today, 2020-08-024). Were those three states to be nations, then in the worldwide rankings, then currently, California would be rank 5, Texas would be rank 7 and Florida would be rank 8.

It should be noted that not long from now, now that the the US Military has sprung over the 50,000-line, the Dept. of Veterans Affairs (curently: 49,181) will soon also go over the 50,000-line, meaning that those currently in or formerly associated with the US-Military who have contracted C19 will be more than 100,000.

Continuing, the Navajo Nation (currently: 9,531) is moving quickly toward 5-digit status of 10,000 total C19 cases, as well.

And the only Unit in the USA with under 1,000 total C19 cases, the Western Territories (Guam & Northern Marianas Islands), now has a total of 821 C19 cases, placing that Unit now 179 shy of the 1,000-case mark. The day will also likely come when the 57 Units that had passed the 1,000-mark will have also passed the 5,000 mark. This could very well happen by Christmas Day of this year.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. As you can see from the rubrik-worktable above this screenshot, California lead in new cases in 6 of the 7 days in this week. Texas lead on Tuesday. Arizona has stayed under 1,000 new cases every day this week thus far.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Circa 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 180,604 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of PROVIDENCE, or slightly less than the population of HARLEM, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently +4,307 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+2,781), to note. Our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

One thing is for sure: people will never be able to bitch and moan that there aren't enough numbers on this thread to read!!

 

Spain seemed to have beaten the virus. Yesterday they had almost 4,000 new cases. This is horrible. When I see this kind of thing I get really discouraged. It's like everything that we try can't control this virus. The only hope is a safe and effective vaccine.

Today I saw rumors that Trump wants the FDA to grant provisional approval to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine before election day. The FDA spokesperson said it isn't true.

I actually hope it is... I'm almost to the point of thinking that Putin and Xi are right. They are already vaccinating their population, regardless of phase 3 results. Sometimes I think that the virus is so aggressive, with more and more long-term consequences piling up, that maybe we should jump into approving a vaccine sooner rather than later, even if there is a risk that it might be less than very safe. I'm thinking risks and benefits. Three western vaccines - Moderna/NIH, Oxford/AstraZeneca, and Pfizer/BioNTech, have already progressed to phase 3. Several thousand people have already received their phase 3 doses, for each of these vaccine candidates. Nothing horrible has happened, so far, that I know. So, let's say, why not keep going with a few more thousand subjects, but then, using the same rationale of emergency authorization to start using the vaccine before final results?

After all that was done for HCQ... which actually doesn't work. With much better reason it could be done for the vaccines, which have a much higher likelihood that they might work.

75% of vaccines that reach phase 3 are ultimately deemed safe and effective. With the onslaught this illness keeps exercising, wouldn't it be reasonable to be a bit bold and to take a bit of a chance? Of course, there is the fiasco of the Swine Flu vaccine, but even that, it killed a couple dozen people... but the disease was killing thousands and thousands.

I'm sick and tired of this and eager to see the end of it... and eager to get a vaccine dose myself. I actually enrolled as a volunteer for the Moderna trial but they haven't called me yet. The downside is that if I'm selected I won't know if I'm getting the vaccine or the placebo... and then I wouldn't be allowed to get, say, the AstraZeneca one on top of it... so I'll probably just decline if they call me, if it looks like the AstraZeneca one is going to win the race, or the Pfizer one. I guess I enrolled impulsively, but the idea of getting a placebo and staying one year periodically going back for antibody tests is not that appealing. It would be if I could be certain of getting the vaccine and not the placebo, but one can't be certain, so...

 

The problem with approval before Phase 3 is finished will be the trust in the vaccine. Hayday for antivaccer, CTs and so on. As long as one behaves like an adult and uses the recommended precautions, mask, shield, 6 feet and handwashing, all a pain in the ars, I would say one is fine.
Most of the new infections happen because people behave like children. They can not follow the recommendations for 6 to 10 month.
I have to have my vacation
I have to have that birthday party
I have to socialize in a bar
No discipline and they pay the price

2/3 of the cases in Germany are now people who return from vacations, you get what you pay for.
Groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehl