Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Have a good time.

 

As preface to the end-of-week analyses, first the excel tables for the worldwide figures and the top 4 nations for 2020-09-027:

Worldwide​

USA​

INDIA​

BRAZIL​

RUSSIA​

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-026, posted 2020-09-027, 10:00 GMT +2, #12460.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-026, posted 2020-09-027, 10:54 GMT +2, #12462.
Russia is experiencing a 2nd wave, posted 2020-09-027, 11:12 GMT +2, #12463.
INDIA surpasses 6,000,000 confirmed C19 cases, posted 2020-09-027, 17:01 GMT +2, #12473.
The world exceeds 1,000,000 total C19 deaths, posted 2020-09-027, 18:13, +12474.
Pre-analysis: excel tables for World, top 4 nations, posted 2020-09-028, 23:54 GMT +2, #12477.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-09-027 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍֍*** 33,310,317 ***֍֍֍


THE WORLD WENT OVER THE 1,000,000 COVID-19 DEATH-THRESHOLD ON THIS DAY
INDIA CROSSED OVER 6,000,000 CONFIRMED TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY

+263,250 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Sunday before.
TOTAL C19 cases: 165 nations with 1,000+, 99 with 10,000+, 60 with 50,000+, 38 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.
There have now been 1,002,292 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,007 of them were on this day.
INDIA has reported more than +1,000 new deaths per day for 27 days in a row and for 31 of the last 34 days total.
INDIA is now only -4,426 away from 100,000 total COVID-19 deaths in that nation.
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Worldwide WEEKLY rolling averages: a record-shattering +297,217 new C19 cases per day / +5,361 deaths per day
+1,040 Indian, +399 Mexican, +335 Brazilian, +275 US-American & +206 Argentinian new deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 65,366 (+6 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

I could write all sorts of information here, but the fact that 1,000,000 people have now lost their lives to this virus has made me... speechless.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 1 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Myanmar. You can see that for the entire week, there were 15 (16) nation-rubrik changes.

The way the rubrik table is presented, you can easily (and mathematically) see how the week has developed until its end.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +50 C19 cases and above):
​

India, which passed Brazil in total cases 21 days ago, is now +1,341,039 (the day before: +1,272,466) cases ahead of Brazil and -1,247,995 (the day before: -1,296,180) cases behind the USA. As you can see, India has now crossed over the halfway point between the USA and Brazil and is now less cases behind the USA than it is ahead of Brazil. This happened exactly 3 weeks to the day after India surpassed Brazil in the rankings. Right now, on the average, India is experiencing 38,700 more +C19 cases per day than the just. Let's handicap that to 38,500. If that stays as is, then in 32 days, India will overtake the USA in total cases, but it just depends on whether or not the USA has a huge surge again, or not.

Also, both Colombia (813,056) and Peru (805,302) have both passed the 800,000 mark and (with Spain as well) are well ahead of Mexico. It is quite possible that both of them will hit 1,000,0000 cases in the same week, probably by middle of October, 2020. BTW, the US-State of California currently has 810,091 total C19 cases.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

Lebanon is on the +1,000 list for the third time in a row. Canada is on the 1,000-list as well.

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 209,543 / 20.90% of worldwide deaths (20.95% the day before). The USA is currently expected to hit 250,000 deaths Mid-November, 2020.

Brazil, total deaths: 141,776 / 14.15% of worldwide deaths (14.17% the three days before). Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12-020.

India, total deaths: 95,574 / 9.53% of worldwide deaths (9.47% the day before), -4,425 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,167 per day, from 2020-09-015 = +15.3 days: 2020-10-001. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 76,243 / 7.61% of worldwide deaths (7.60% the day before). No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

Combined (523,136), the top four nations currently represent 52.20% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 52.19% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

6 of the top 10 nations are from the Americas.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

58 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 58, 11 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece, with Turkey having crossed over the 10,000,000-line on 2020-09-027: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy, France and Turkey.


END-FACIT: on 2020-09-027, the world travelled from 33.05 million total C19 cases over the day before, hopscotching over 33.1, 33.2 and 33.3 million to land at 33.3 million. The world will go over 34 million confirmed COVID-19 cases Wednesday, 2020-09-030.

-Stat

 

And all that to just screw up the US election and it will vanish Nov. 4th
Puuuuuuuuuuuuuufffffffffffffffffff.
A hoax.
A Marxist conspiracy. I was told to today that I am a Marxist, because I enforce the mask law in my business.
I laughed and touched the little button on my left collar, the finger button and threw the clown out.

Did you have a good time ?

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-026, posted 2020-09-027, 10:54 GMT +2, #12462.
Russia is experiencing a 2nd wave, posted 2020-09-027, 11:12 GMT +2, #12463.
INDIA surpasses 6,000,000 confirmed C19 cases, posted 2020-09-027, 17:01 GMT +2, #12473.
The world exceeds 1,000,000 total C19 deaths, posted 2020-09-027, 18:13, +12474.
Pre-analysis: excel tables for World, top 4 nations, posted 2020-09-028, 23:54 GMT +2, #12477.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-027, posted 2020-09-029, 00:33 GMT +2, #12478.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for for Sunday, 2020-09-027 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

******* 7,321,343 *******

+33,782 new COVID-19 cases over the day before, less than the Sunday before.
FLORIDA went over 700,000 total COVID-19 cases on this day.
There are now 209,453 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, +276 of those deaths were recorded on this day.
USA WEEKLY rolling average = 45,225 new infections & 762 deaths per day. Tendency for both rubriks: rising.
14,130 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+34 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 104.3 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The number of daily deaths on this day (276) was less than the corresponding day in the week before (294).

It should be noted that a pretty major surge in +cases is hitting the world right now. Last week, our world had 3 days in a row of +300,000 cases per day; this week, the same thing happened, with most every day about +10,000 more cases than the day before, the exception being Saturday, 2020-09-026. I expect to see a proportionally quiet Sunday, as usual. But important to note is that, unlike the phenomenon from June/July into August of 2020, this time, the USA is not the main driver of the world-wide surge. Rather, India is, and a large number of smaller nations all combined are showing daily plus totals that would have made your skin crawl just 4 months ago. However, as Dr. Anthony Fauci just said in the last 96 hours, live, on TV, an average of even "just" +40,000 per day is still way too much as we enter into the regular flu-season as well, increasing the danger of a so-called "twin-demic".

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day. For the entire week, there were 2 unit/.rubrik changes.

The way the rubrik table is presented, you can easily (and mathematically) see how the week has developed until its end.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The outlier, for a fourth day in a row, where it is hot and dry and there is lots and lots of space for people, is: Utah.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

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FACIT: we ended the 48 hour period analysed with 209,543 total US deaths from COVID-19.



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than the population of MARYVILLE or just slightly less than the population of ROCHESTER, never to get the one or the other back again.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013). 200,000 deaths were reached 5 days before, on 2020-09-015.
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently at +3,406 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 4 days ahead of the next milestone-projections. This value is lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,021), to note.

I know it may be tiring to see these statistics all the time, but I do think it's important to follow the data-path every day and to put it in print, for posterity's sake, so that the naysayers cannot say "nay" without looking totally ignorant.

NEW CONCLUSION: mitigate! As of the data for 2020-09-028, I will only be doing these full analyses at end of week (published on Mondays for the Sunday directly before) and also for End of Month and historical occasions I feel warrant a full analysis. With the shortened form that will come out on 2020-09-029 for 2020-08-028, you will see that a number of things will be missing, but the extrapolation you can always see at work at the online excel table, etc.

-Stat

 

good man, good man.

Yom Kippur is a fasting holiday, so "good time" is not how I would describe it, but it was good for my soul. Man oh man am I tired.

 

So, folks, the two analyses I just posted, for Sunday, 2020-09-027, are now going to be coming out once every week instead of every day, analyzing the span of time from Monday-Sunday of the week before. So, daily analyses are going to become weekly analyses, and the next weekly analysis comes out in, you guessed it, one week!

When I put out the mini-analysis for 2020-09-028 later today (it's already 2020-09-029 my time, nööööö), you will see what is missing. But your eyes will also see what is there, and that will be good practice for you! Putting out a small amount of data will not cost me the time the big analyses do.

Just remember, to find the latest numbers, just click on my sig file.

I will still be posting here every day, only, the volume of information from Tuesdays through Sundays will be less, unless it's end of month / end of Quarter / end of Year.

I am REALLY hoping that the world will soon have some viable vaccines ready for mass production before the mass dying begins, because this coming winter may end up being hell on earth otherwise.

I must admit, working with these numbers every day has been very, very hard on my soul. We are talking about human beings who have been killed or maimed by this vicious virus. Sometimes, my eyes even get wet thinking about it.

-Stat

 

Very important part, what is good for the soul, is a good time. We can not forget that in those times.

I am sure glad you were able to refresh your soul, brother.

 

Almost back to where we were 3 months ago and right on schedule Florida opens everything.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Monday, 2020-09-028 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Worldwide & top 4 nations:​

As indicated after the analysis for 2020-09-027, starting with the next date I am only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 4 nations (all over 1,000,000 cases). Sometimes, I will post excel-table screenshots from India, Brazil and Russia, sometimes not. Remember, all of those things, including the US death extrapolation, can be found at my online excel table (or, just click on my signature file). As other nations cross over the 1,000,000 line, I will include them here.

So, without any extra words, I will let the tables and screenshots speak for themselves and you can interpret them for yourselves. This will be the new format apart from weekly / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all a good Tuesday.

-Stat

Worldwide:​

USA:​

INDIA:​

BRAZIL:​

RUSSIA:​

 

An important piece of information regarding Sweden:
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-housing-crowded-lowered-coronavirus-death-rate-2020-9
It seems like more than half of their households is made of one person, including the elderly, which discourages transmission.
Any possible partial success they have had there with their unconventional strategy maybe has more to do with the above than with the strategy itself. @557

 

And 1/2 of all their cases are in Stockholm.
So 23% of the population has had 50% of the deaths.

 

Yeh I’ve seen that statistic. It certainly has meaning, especially since I’ve been pointing out to Americans for months mitigation in public is less effective than at home since transmission is many times more likely to happen at home. Unfortunately people think homes are magical places where masks, etc. don’t work or aren’t necessary.

I’ve thought a lot about the above statistic and come to the conclusion it is a factor, but not a big factor. Otherwise there wouldn’t have been the initial high infection rates that everyone is constantly criticizing them for. It’s another case of you not being able to have it both ways. We can’t say it affects R0 now but didn’t affect R0 significantly during peak infections.

I’m pretty sure co-living/cohousing residents are counted as living alone in the above statistics and this living arrangement is quite common in Sweden. So shared dining and socializing spaces would negate many benefits of “living alone”. I’ve also read Swedes are very good about looking in on and helping especially older people who live alone. So there would be more interaction than in the US where those demographics don’t socialize much at all living alone.

Bottom line, yes it has to have some effect. But how much considering they did have high rates of infection? How much does cohousing mitigate the effect?

 

But didn't you say that their initial high rate of infection was linked to nursing homes? Once the virus finished getting those easy pickings, then maybe the R0 dropped because of so many people living by themselves.

 

I believe their mortality rates were influenced by nursing homes and the decision to not treat older infected people outside and inside nursing homes.

I don’t think policy in relation to the aged affected infection rates, just mortality rates.

 

Well, sometimes the virus spreads like wildfire in nursing homes. I know nothing about Sweden. Maybe they have a cluster of nursing homes all maned by the same governmental agency and the thing spread all over the place.

I've never been to Sweden... The only thing I know about them is that their women are very pretty, LOL

 

So I’ve discovered as of July 47% of deaths were in nursing homes. Seven percent of Stockholm nursing home residents died. Nationally it was only 3% so it’s definitely regional.

Another 25% of total deaths were consumers of home health services.

I think we agree the overall infection rate of Sweden equals and likely exceeds most of its peers based on not only PCR testing but antibody testing they have done as well. We still disagree on the exact figures but agree Sweden did have a lot of infections.

This breaks things down by PCR data on age.
Number of cases
9 years and younger 680
10-19 years 4,472
20-29 years 14,843
30-39 years 13,894
40-49 years 14,669
50-59 years 15,677
60-69 years 8,931
70-79 years 6,160
80-90 years 6,764
90 years and older 3,645
Unknown 21

I’ve also read anecdotal accounts from healthcare workers that people over 60 years of age just aren’t being routinely treated. Also that even severe cases not requiring hospitalization immediately weren’t even tested let alone treated for Covid. I get the feeling Sweden’s health care is not as good as advertised. I think their CFR is double ours.

As far as their women you’ve presented good evidence to support your case. There is a town in my state not too terribly far from me that is called Gothenburg and their mascot/sports team name is the “Swedes”. Outside of some local cuisine and a yearly Swedish festival I’m not sure how much culture remains there. Oh, there are a couple AM radio stations around that area that still play some polka for a few hours on the weekends. I’ve learned more about Sweden from this pandemic than from any other source.

 

It's interesting that their cases seem to fall preferentially on the 20-59 age range.

 

I haven’t really kept up with our statistics by age. Are ours a lot different?

 

depends what your age is..


But really the virus doesn't give a flying eff what your age is.. If you are the .3 percentile.. Adios

death rate is lower for lower ages.. I was embellishing.. but it does kill all age groups

 

My age has no effect on what US demographics have the most infections.

The rest of that I’m not sure I understand. Are you saying age is not an underlying condition making death of the infected individual more likely?

 

Probably not, we've had a surge of younger people lately.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Tuesday, 2020-09-029 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Worldwide & top 4 nations:​

As indicated yesterday: only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 4 nations (all over 1,000,000 cases). I will let the tables and screenshots speak for themselves and you can interpret them for yourselves. This will be the new format apart from weekly / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all a good Wednesday.

-Stat

Worldwide:​

USA:​

INDIA:​

BRAZIL:​

RUSSIA:​

 

"I'm Statistikhengst and I ENDORSE this posting!!!"

 

I came across this UNOFFICIAL website and since it had some interesting charts I felt that it was worth sharing since it reveals WHERE the virus is CURRENTLY running rampant.

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/r...fb-a678-b021c0123e94/page/BUkaB?s=qMsU1RVhcJM

We are just 33 days away from the election and while it is clear that ALL districts have a MINIMUM of 10 to 50 cases per 100k it is quite clear which districts face HIGHER risks when it comes to in person voting on November 3rd.

I very much doubt that there will be any significant drop in Cases in those areas facing the highest risks in the next month given that the current TREND is showing no indications of a decline.