Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

You have focused a bit on herd immunity based on numbers you deem insufficient to reach. But the problem is, even with higher numbers, we still won't have herd immunity.

It doesn't seem like the SARS-CoV-2 will ever be stopped by herd immunity, either natural or from vaccination or both, due to the large number of variants that have a potential for re-infections and breakthrough infections.

You know, the variants will keep coming. This virus is likely to become endemic, and to wax and wane over the years, being a constant pain.

Viruses often become more infectious but less lethal as they mutate, as an evolutionary advantage. Often but not always. This hasn't happened to the SARS-CoV-2 yet (the less lethal part). It's becoming more infectious but just as lethal.

People may have the wrong impression that it is less lethal because case-fatality rates have dropped. Yes, they've dropped, but it's not because the virus became less lethal. It's because of a combination of 3 factors:

1. After picking up the low-hanging fruit (the very elderly), the virus is now spreading among younger people, who are less likely to die from it.
2. A lot of the cases, now, come from fully vaccinated people with breakthrough infections. These get infected but die less often, so they push down the numbers, too.
3. Therapeutics have improved. We are more efficient in treating the disease, now.

But strictly from the Virology standpoint, the new variants such as the Delta, have not behaved in a less lethal way than the ancestral variants. Actually the opposite is suggested (but not confirmed yet), given that Delta seems to yield viral loads about 1,000 times higher than those yielded by the ancestral variants.

The new variants, especially the Delta and the Gamma, have, on the other hand, demonstrated three properties:

1. More infectious
2. Less responsive to vaccines so there are cases of breakthrough infection among the vaccinated
3. Able to re-infect people who have had the ancestral variant or the Alpha variant

These are not conducive of herd immunity, and the Delta is not the last variant... there will be more.

Herd immunity at this point is looking like an impossible dream, regardless of the number of people infected.

Herd immunity functions in a reverse relationship with infectiousness. The more infectious, the higher the number of people who need to become immune to reach herd immunity. But that's only valid if we consider a single strain and if that strain doesn't re-infect people who have already had it.

All these new variants threw the concept out the window, already. This was demonstrated by what happened in the city of Manaus, Brazil, in which 75% of the population had already had the ancestral variant, and the numbers were way down, suggesting heard immunity... but then the Gamma variant came around and decimated the city.

The Delta is demonstrating the same thing, now.

 

What is the treatment? What has improved in the way of treatment since the inception of COVID-19 last year?

 

Quercetin, vitamin C, zinc picolinate, famotidine, atorvastatin, high dose aspirin, high dose melatonin, ethyl eicosapentaenoic acid, vitamin D, possibly ivermectin, fluvoxamine, high flow oxygen, remdesivir, mab cocktail, convalescent plasma, enoxaparin, dexamethasone or methylprednisolone, prone position, delayed invasive ventilation, treatment of secondary infections... With variable evidence, all of the above have shown some impact on disease course although neither one is curative. Of these, dexamethasone and enoxaparin likely have the biggest impact in saving lives as they deal with complications such as cytokine storm and disseminated intravascular coagulation. Evidence that ivermectin helps is mounting:

https://journals.lww.com/americanth...mectin_for_Prevention_and_Treatment_of.7.aspx

 

That does sound promising. Certainly much better than what we knew or had last year. I'm assuming the volume and percentages are down now that more people are vaccinated. Is this correct?

Have you seen any reduction in the number of admissions and/or severity of symptoms in hospitalized patients? Reduction in recovery times?What about the secondary conditions in the various body symptoms (ie. heart, lungs, etc.)?

 

Yes, there's been a reduction in number of admissions in my area, but we haven't had the full impact of the Delta yet, over here, so it's not excluded that the numbers will climb up, again. Yes, reduction in recovery times as compared to the beginning of the pandemic, due to all the treatments I mentioned above. Secondary conditions: I do mostly inpatient; I'm a hospitalist, and these secondary conditions do and will manifest later in the outpatient sector so I'm not exactly in position to have the best viewpoint on this. I do follow the literature and there's been more and more reports of late complications. For example, lately we've noticed that the SARS-CoV-2 affects the beta pancreatic cells that secrete insulin, leading to new-onset diabetes.

 

By far one of the best and most informative postings I have ever read.

I really can't disagree with anything you wrote. Spot-on.

 

So, I am wildly crunching the numbers for end of month for July, 2021, with 42 out of 50 tracked nations done, but as a nice appetizer, this I can already provide for the PF community, something I introduced in February of this year: the COVID-19 tracking tree:



That would be the world composite numbers plus the 50 nations I am currently tracking, in order of total C19 cases but categorized somewhat like a chart you would have to read at the eye-doctor's office.

Much more coming in the next days.

Oh, and Bolivia will fall out of the tracking within the next 14 days, to be replaced by Cuba, which is moving up in the rankings very quickly.

-Stat

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) July 2021, 2021-07-031
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 1 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)

READ!​

The end-of-month analyses are pretty intensive and take time to do well. Here the schedule:

-the following five postings are the screenshots of the Worldwide figures and the top 50 nations. Two nations nations were added to the tracking (Thailand, Tunisia) in July, 2021 and two were eliminated from the tracking (Paraguay, Bulgaria) as well, keeping the ceiling at 50. 31 Of them are over 1,000,000 C19 cases, which means that three nations went over the 1,000,000 mark in July 2021 (Bangladesh, Pakistan and Malaysia). Three nations are currently on track to exceed the million mark in August, 2021 (Portugal, Japan and Thailand).

The Worldwide figures will not be posted here, since they will receive an individual analysis. Instead, a screenshot (2 pages) of the preliminary Worldwide figures from WorldOMeter plus the 50 nations currently being tracked will be posted as proof of the veracity of the data.

-later on in this day, I will publish the final USA figures in the form of a large special, unplanned analysis, covering EOM July 2021. It was not planned that I would continue the USA monthly analyses but then came the Delta Surge in my homeland, so I think that a special analysis is indeed in order, here, at least for this month.

-Tomorrow, on 2021-08-002, I will then publish the end-analysis for the Worldwide figures for 2020-07-031. WorldOMeter has a "2 days ago" function at its main table, which allows us to wait one more day to see the final numbers. The advantage to this is that nations that may be adjusting their total figures will have one more day to do so. Like the USA analysis, the worldwide analysis will be very large but it will likely be spread out over 2 postings. The new luxury table I have been using has been expanded to include the 7-day rolling averages in +cases and +deaths, for better context. I am also added a new probability table for the tracked nations currently under 1,000,000 cases, to see as of this time which of them are likely to cross over the 1,000,000 mark by year's end, or not.

I've eliminated a lot of extra text in these five postings. If you want to see where the virus has grown or receded, then take a good look at the monthly + numbers (+cases and +deaths over EOM May 2021), at columns P and Q in row three for EOM this month and in row 33 for EOM of the month before. The exact growth rates will be calculated on a separate table, as always.

So, let's get started.

WORLDWIDE:
The Worldwide EOM/Half-year analysis for will be published on 2021-07-002

​

For in the meantime:

USA:


A USA EOM special analysis will be published later in the day 2021-07-001​

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------​

INDIA:
֍֍֍* 31,654,584 *֍֍֍​

BRAZIL:
֍********* 19,917,855 *********֍
BRAZIL IS ON TRACK TO CROSS OVER 20,000,000 C-19 CASES IN THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST 2021
​

RUSSIA:
RUSSIA OVERTOOK FRANCE IN THE C19 RANKINGS DURING THIS MONTH
RUSSIA SURPASSED 6,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES ON 2021-07-020
****** 6,265,873 ******
​

FRANCE:
****** 6,127,019 ******
FRANCE SURPASSED 6,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES ON 2021-07-027

​

UNITED KINGDOM:
***** 5,856,528 *****
THE UK SURPASSED 5,000,000 C-19 CASES ON 2021-07-008, ENTERED THE WEEKLY CONCISE ANALYSES

​

​

TURKEY:
***** 5,727,045 *****

​

ARGENTINA:
ARGENTINA IS ON TRACK TO EXCEED 5,000,000 C-19 CASES IN AUGUST 2021
​

COLOMBIA:
COLOMBIA IS ON TRACK TO EXCEED 5,000,000 C-19 CASES IN AUGUST 2021
​

SPAIN:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) July 2021, 2021-07-031
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 2 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)
​

ITALY:
​

IRAN:
​

GERMANY:
​

INDONESIA:
INDONESIA EXCEEDED 3,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES ON 2021-07-022
​

POLAND:
​

MEXICO:
​

SOUTH AFRICA:
​

UKRAINE:
​

PERU:
​

NETHERLANDS:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) July 2021, 2021-07-031
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 3 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)
​

CZECHIA:
​

IRAQ:
​

CHILE:
​

PHILLIPPINES:
​

CANADA:
​

BANGLADESH:
BANGLADESH EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES ON 2021-07-009, 29th NATION TO DO SO
​

BELGIUM:
​

MALAYSIA:
MALAYSIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES ON 2021-07-025, 31st NATION TO DO SO
​

SWEDEN:
​

ROMANIA:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) July 2021, 2021-07-031
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 4 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)
​

PAKISTAN:
PAKISTAN EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES ON 2021-07-023, 30th NATION TO DO SO
​

PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL IS ON TRACK TO CROSS OVER 1,000,000 C-19 CASES AROUND 2021-08-012
​

JAPAN:
JAPAN IS ALSO ON TRACK TO CROSS OVER 1,000,000 C-19 CASES AROUND 2021-08-012
​

ISRAEL:
​

HUNGARY:
​

JORDAN:
​

SERBIA:
​

SWITZERLAND:
​

NEPAL:
​

UAE:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) July 2021, 2021-07-031
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 5 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)​

AUSTRIA:
​

MOROCCO:
​

THAILAND (new as of July 2021):
at the current rate of +cases, Thailand is on track to break over the 1,000,000 mark around 2021-08-024!
​

TUNISIA (new as of July 2021):
​

KAZAKHSTAN:
​

LEBANON:
​

SAUDI ARABIA:
​

GREECE:
​

ECUADOR:​

BOLIVIA:
​

Cuba is extremely likely to enter the tracking by mid-August, 2021, which means that Bolivia will then leave the tracking.

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

USA COVID-19 statistical analysis for EOM July (2021-07-031)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)

֍֍֍***** 35,745,024 *****֍֍֍
THE USA DATA FOR JULY 2021 IS FINAL

THIS IS AN EXTRA, UNPLANNED ANALYSIS, MADE NECESSARY BY THE DELTA-VARIANT WAVE

+56,518 daily cases / +251 daily deaths
+1,204,179 cases over the month before / +9,066 deaths over the month before
That is a considerable rise in +cases over June 2021, but slightly less +deaths

USA 7-day rolling averages:
+80,050 new C19 cases per day (one month ago: +13,120) / +372 deaths per day (one month ago: +280 )
Every single day in July except 1 saw the USA at less than 500 deaths per day, showing real progress in combatting the virus
---------------------------------------------------------
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases in the USA: 11,529 (one month ago: 3,891 )
Total USA C19 tests: at month's end, the USA was just under 530,000,000 total C19 tests administered
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

I was planning to not report on the USA any more on a monthly basis, but then the Delta-Variant struck the USA, most notably in states where not enough people have been vaccinated. This will be a more concise analysis. There is no rubrik table for the USA anymore, it has served its purpose. If you don't ready anything else here, read the postitivity rates and see where the high rates are coming from.

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, Total cases, daily values:
​

First, the WorldOMeter values:





And here is the look with my monthly compare excel table:

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, Total cases ​

The nice thing about this format is that the territories are not necessarily shunted off to the bottom of the table. For instance, US Military and Veterans Affairs are ranks 35 and 36. There continue to be 11 Units, all 11 of them being states, with over 1,000,000 total confirmed C19 cases. To put this in perspective, including the entire USA itself, the entire world has 31 nations that are over the 1,000,000 mark.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, + monthly cases​

Here the monthly +cases, something you cannot see at WorldOMeter:




As you can see, in the course of July 2021, 30 Units added more than +100,000 cases and 3 of those Units (states) added more than +1,000,000 cases.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total performed tests​

​

It's kind of mind-boggling to realize that the USA has now conducted over ONE HALF BILLION Covid-19 tests.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, + monthly tests:​

The order of total tests you can find at worldometers, but here, the +tests (monthly), which you cannot find at WorldOMeter:

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, POSITIVITY RATE:
​

The positivity rate is something that WorldOMeter does not show, but it is very easy to calculate. Furthermore, Thi iss the rubrik that tells us which states are getting hit the hardest and is most informative about the progression of the Delta Variant wave in the USA




Ok, time for gravy with the potatos: 19 units have a postivity rate over 9%, which is catastrophic. Take out the federal prisons system for a moment (their statistic was terrible every time) and we are left with the following 18 units: SD, ND, KS, AL, WI, AZ, CO, DE, ID, OK, MS, Navajo Nation, NE, TN, NV, AR, GA and TX.

4 of those units are from America's Breadbasket states
4 are from the SW
1 is a blue sky state
1 is from the MW
1 is from the East
7 are from the South

11 units were Trump country in 2020, 6 were Bidenland.

We see a very clear ideological, political, cultural and likely socioeconomic divide as to where the most infections are popping up.

The vast majority of units (states) with positivity under the national positivity rate are blue states.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

At half-year, 20 Units have now suffered 10,000 or more C19 deaths (it was 19 in June) and of them, 4 units have suffered more than 50,000 deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, + monthly deaths:​

In July 2021, 27 Units added +100 or more C19 deaths and of them, 1 unit added more than +1,000.


In conclusion: I'll keep it short. What is happening in the USA is a self-inflicted wound, because a swath of the population has been constantly lied to about vaccinations and will not get vaccinated. The unvaccinated are bringing the rest of the country into danger. And that in the richest land on earth, where there are more than enough vaccines to cover the entire adult population.

-Stat

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

WORLDWIDE COVID-19 statistical analysis for EOM July 2021 (2021-070-031)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)

Published August 2nd, 2021
WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍******** 198,510,217 ********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍Ώ
THE WORLDWIDE DATA FOR JULY 2021 IS FINAL
+542,435 daily cases / +8,940 daily deaths
+15,541,154 cases over the month before / +269,623 deaths over the month before

Hard-statistics at EOM JUNE 2021:
TOTAL C19 cases: 105 nations with 100,000+, 31 nations with 1,000,000+, 3 nations with 10,000,000+.
Bangladesh, Malaysia & Pakistan crossed over the 1,000,000-mark in July 2021.
Japan, Portugal & Thailand are poised to cross over the 1,000,000-mark in August 2021.

There have now been 4,323,448 total COVID-19 deaths worldwide
For monthly cases & deaths (top 50 nations) see: new monthly calculation tables below.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +590,934 new C19 cases per day (was: +374,016) / +9,205 deaths per day (was: +7,971)
---------------------------------------------------------
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 90,058 (one month ago: 76,226)
The FIFTY top nations on Earth have now administered 2,500,0000 C19 tests.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The month of July 2021 was like watching a clock get rewound for the next round. The Delta-Variant (and now, in the last days, Delta-+) has reached all corners of the planet (proven by the continental calculations). Most disturbing is the sharp upward trend in the USA. New in the news was Indonesia, which lead for a number of days in either +cases, +deaths, or both. And the fast climb of cases in Thailand, Japan and Vietnam is now cause for real concern.

Ye Olde Tracking Tree:​

In February, I developed the tracking tree (based on the idea of an ancestral family tree design). Here is how the tracking tree looks right now:




The tracking tree is a good way to get a quick and reliable overview of the situation at hand without getting all down in the weeds with too much numerical minutae. It's also an excellent way to determine if your eyes are good or if perhaps a visit to and opthamologist of your choice would be a good thing to do....

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
here the last three days of July, 2021
​

The first three weeks can be found with each weekly concise analysis (7th, 14th and 21st of each month).

The top 50 nations (all in my current tracking) within the worldwide figures:​

Here the screenshots of the excel tables for 50 top nations nations alongside the worldwide figures today can be found in the pre-analysis reports:
EOM Pre-analysis tables, Part 1 for 2021-07-031, posted 2021-08-001, 12:04 UTC +1, #13633.
EOM Pre-analysis tables, Part 2 for 2021-07-031, posted 2021-08-001, 12:08 UTC +1, #13634.
EOM Pre-analysis tables, Part 3 for 2021-07-031, posted 2021-08-001, 12:12 UTC +1, #13635.
EOM Pre-analysis tables, Part 4 for 2021-07-031, posted 2021-08-001, 12:13 UTC +1, #13636.
EOM Pre-analysis tables, Part 5 for 2021-07-031, posted 2021-08-001, 12:14 UTC +1, #13637.

Also, an extra, unscheduled USA analysis:
USA special analysis for 2021-07-031, posted 2021-08-002, 11:57 UTC +1, #13638.

WORLDWIDE TOTAL C19 CASES (2 of 7 screenshots from WorldOMeter):
​

The remaining 5 screenshots are at the overflow link at the top of the analysis.

Always searching to build a better and quicker mousetrap and knowing that the top 50 nations I am tracking on a daily basis account for at least 90% of the Covid-19 activity across the world, I've took the USA monthly excel table I've been using for a while and adapted it vis-a-vis worldwide stats for the top 46 nations being tracked, in 3 major rubriks (cases, deaths, tests) that can be sorted a number of ways and therefore eliminates the need for so many other WorldOMeter screenshots.

WORLDWIDE TOTAL C19 CASES, DEATHS and TESTS (top 50):​

Here we can see that at the end of July 2021, the top 50 nations accounted for at least 92.00% of most everything.

Sorted three times in the same table can be good for your eyes. We can see that the top 5 in total cases is not necessarily the same top 5 in total deaths or total tests.

WORLDWIDE TOTAL C19 +CASES, +DEATHS and +TESTS (top 50):​

Here we can see that Indonesia moved to the top 1/3 of the statistics in most ways.

WORLDWIDE TOTAL C19 +CASES +DEATHS GROWTH RATE (top 50):​

When you look at the growth rates, interested country names pop up at the top of the list compared to the months before, for instance, Kazakhstan, Tunisia and Ecuador.

NEW: THE TRACKED NATIONS UNDER THE 1,000,000-MARK, HOW CLOSE TO 1,000,000?​

As of and including August 1st, 2021, there are now 153 days left in the year 2021.

I've created a new table for the nations that I am tracking under the 1,000,000 mark to see which of them, based on their current 7-day-rolling average, will cross over the 1,000,000-case milestone within these last 153 days. Cuba, which is not being tracked yet, is also on the list, I am quite sure you will see why. So, with Cuba, that makes for 20 out of 51 nations.

Rows 2-7 of this table are sort of a primer for us all, to get a good ballpark view of what a nation at each of those round C-19 case totals would have to suffer in order to go over 1,000,000 cases.

I've sorted it three ways for you. First, in descending order of total cases at current:



Second, by current 7-day rolling +case average (most enlightening):



Third, by the number of days (ascending order) until certain nations are likely to reach the 1,000,000 mark, which I have also translated into a calendar date for you:



The long and short of this is that the numbers, if they hold as they are now, point to 8 nations I am currently tracking plus Cuba (which will upseat Bolivia in the tracking in about 13 days, so actually, 9 nations) that are going to cross the 1,000,000 case threshhold. The only calendar date I calculated for 2022 was for Greece, because cases are on a rising curve there and this date is sure to change, perhaps radically.

Can all of this change? You bet it can. For a long time, Israel stood still in time and I assumed they had beaten Covid-19 back and would not cross over this marker, but now, Israel is on track to get there at the end of September, 2021.

Also, there are nations not even close to 500,000 cases right now that, based on their trajectory, may actually go over 1,000,000 by year's end. Based on what I am seeing, that could very likely be nations like Vietnam, Georgia, Libya or Myanmar.

WORLDWIDE TOTAL STATISTICS BY CONTINENT:​

All of the WorldOMeter screenshots of the continental data are at the overflow link at the top of the analysis. Here is the distillation of the top-line data for the continents:



And next we can see a statistical monthly compare, sorted in descending order by cases, deaths, recovereds, +cases, +deaths, +recovereds, and the growth rates as well:




We see a continuation of the stark statistical rise in Asia, but now even Africa and even Oceana have jumped into the fray.

Right now, as summer winds down, it's a race against time to get to herd immunity before the Fall "wave" has a chance of becoming a wave.

-Stat

 

So, enough for a while.

Time for a gin-and-tonic.

 

For the third time in its history, the small island nation of Fiji reported over +1,000 Covid-19 cases (+1,100, to be exact). Only 900,000 people live on Fiji, which is located in the South Pacific, direct north of New Zealand and direct East of Australia.

Lots and lots of wealthy tourists like to visit Fiji, it is often a getaway location for the rich and famous.

Just sayin'

 

VIETNAM SPECIAL SHORT ANALYSIS - UPDATE 2
​

Exactly one week ago, on Tuesday, 2021-07-027, I posted a Vietnam update. Here is the 2nd such update. On that day, Vietnam had 109,111 cases and was rank 99.

Now, exactly one week later:



165,339 cases, rank 90.

165,339 - 109,111 = +56,228 cases in one week and rank movement of 9 places.

56,228 / 7 = +8,032.57 cases per day, 7-day average. As of today, there are exactly 150 days left in this year. 8,032.57 * 150 = 1,204,885 + 165,339 = 1,370,224 Covid-19 cases in Vietnam by year's end if it maintains this course.

Vietnam is moving up the rankings very quickly, as is Cuba and a couple of others. If this does not abate, then it is only a matter of time before Vietnam will enter my 50-country daily tracking.

-Stat

PS. Update in one week from now.

 

At end of day (EOD) yesterday, 2021-08-002, the world stood at 199,565,656 total confirmed Covid-19 cases. This means that +434,344 cases today, 2021-08-003, would get our world to the 200-Million mark.

Right now, the world is at 199,826,295 cases and 8 of the top nations in the rankings have reported nothing yet, plus the top two (USA, India) have only reported small partial totals.

One week ago, on Tuesday, the world recorded +588,895 cases, on the Tuesday before that, it was +531,250, on the Tuesday before that it was +593,163, so there is every reason to believe that the world will go over +500,000 cases today as well and therefore over the 200,000,000-mark. I will post again when we reach this milestone. Will probably happen late this evening my time in Germany.

-Stat

 

THE WORLD CROSSED OVER 200,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY​

On Monday, January 25th, 2021 (2021-01-025), our world crossed over the first 100,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases.

Today, Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 (2021-08-003), around 21:30 my time (UTC +1), which is around 15:30 on the East Coast of the USA, our world crossed over the 200,000,000 mark:

ΏΏ 200,011,333 ΏΏ​

It took our world an entire year to get to the first 100 million case-mark. It took just a little more than 6 months to double that figure to 200 million.

Today is a horribly historic day.

-Stat

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Special COVID-19 WORLDWIDE concise analysis: 2021-08-003
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 50 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 7 of the 50 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.
​

On Tuesday, 2021-08-003, our world went over the 200,000,000 Covid-19 case-marker. That alone justifies a concise analysis for this day, but more importantly, getting down into the weeds as to where the +cases are coming from is quite enlightening, to say the least. If you don't read anything else, read the stuff at the bottom: it's important.

Yesterday when I reported on this event as it unfolded around 21:30 my time in Germany, the total stood at 200,011,333. I also wrote earlier in the day yesterday that at end of day (EOD) on 2021-08-002, the world stood at 199,565,656 total confirmed Covid-19 cases. This meant that at that time, +434,344 cases would get our world to the 200-Million mark on 2021-08-003. Now that the EOD end-figures have been published, you will see that the worldwide composite went well over the requisite +434,344.

WORLDWIDE:

ΏΏ 200,237,136 ΏΏ
+671,480 daily cases / +10,414 daily deaths
rolling 7-day + cases avg = 613,538 = 426.1 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
rolling 7-day +deaths avg = 9,487 = 6.6 new deaths every minute, tendency: rising
THE USA EXCEEDED 36,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
C-19 TESTING IN THE USA IS *SHARPLY* ON THE RISE, A POSITIVE SIGN
BRAZIL IS ON THE CUSP TO 20,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES, WILL EXCEED THAT MARK ON 2021-08-004
PORTUGAL & JAPAN ARE QUICKLY NEARING 1,000,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES
54 NATIONS HAD OVER +1,000 NEW C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 16 OF THEM ARE NOT IN MY TRACKING
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS, SEE THE LAST TWO SCREENSHOTS AND EXPLANATION
INDONESIA IS ON THE CUSP OF 100,000 TOTAL C-19 DEATHS, WILL EXCEED THAT MARK TODAY, 2021-08-004
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I really don't know if this is a solemn moment or just a horrifying moment, but our world went from 100,000,000 to 200,000,000 cases in just over 6 months time, from January 25th, 2021 to August 3rd, 2021. Let's be real here: on January 25th, 2020 the pandemic had just started to crank-up and most people were unaware of it; there were barely any cases registered, it was maybe 20,000 or so. Therefore, the world took an entire year to accrue the first 100 million and then 6 months and 1 week double that figure.

As of and including today, 2021-08-004, there are exactly 150 days left in this year. Now look at the current 7-day rolling average: +613,538.3 cases per day.

+613,538.3 * 150 = 92,030,745 more C-19 cases. This means that the world could very well land close to 300,000,000 cases at year's end. And if the average shoots was up we could go well over 300,000,000.

Here the entire table of all 222 entities being tracked by WorldOMeter, followed by the top 59 nations in +cases on this day (that's where the nitty-gritty stuff is easy to see).

WORLDWIDE C-19 FIGURES BY TOTAL CASES, DESCENDING:​

On an interesting side-note, at the beginning of the pandemic, the cruise ship DIAMOND PRINCESS was rank 2. It is now rank 200. China was rank 1 at the beginning of the pandemic. It is currently rank 107.

WORLDWIDE C-19 FIGURES BY +CASES, DESCENDING (TOP 67):​

On this day, 54 nations had over +1,000 new cases. You would think that virtually all of the top 50 nations would also be in the top 50 of +cases, but that actually not the case. All of the nations that I have highlighted in green are nations that are not (yet) in my top 50 tracking. As of one month ago I decided that I will not go over 50 unless more than 50 nations end up over the 1,000,000 mark by years end, which I still consider unlikely.

The nations highlighted in blue are nations that ARE in my tracking but under rank 50. To give this more context, I decided to screenshot every nation over +700 cases to give us a little more context and this is what it looks like:




So, to break down what this means within the top 50, 14 of them are NOT in my tracking and of the 54 nations over +1,000 on this day, it's 16 that are not being tracked by me.

Here are the names of those nations, in descending order of +cases on this day:
+5,000 to just under +10,000: Cuba, Vietnam
+2,000 to +5,000: Georgia, Myanmar, Reunion, Guatemala, Sri Lanka, Libya
+1,000 to +2,000: Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Algeria, Fiji, South Korea, Kenya (Mongolia, Honduras)

Not a single one of those non-tracked nations is within Europe or North America. Those nations are either in Asia, Africa, South America or are small island states, for instance, in Oceana.

When you look at the top 50 nations I am tracking, a number of them that are well over the 1,000,000 mark have slowed to a snail's-pace in terms of +cases, most notably (here the top 50 table from EOM July 2021, sorted accorded to 7-day rolling averages):






As you can see, 13 of the nations I am currently tracking are under +1,000 cases on the daily average. I highlighed everything from rank 39 to 50 in +cases and from rank 37 to 50 in +deaths.

Ecuador and Bolivia are currently rank 49 and 50 of the top 50 in total cases and surely within the next 2 weeks, Cuba will enter the tracking and Bolivia will leave the tracking. Afterward, either Georgia or Vietnam will eventually supplant Ecuador as well.

Of the nations over 1,000,000 cases that have slowed the pace of +cases, most them are from East/Central Europe: Switzerland, Ukraine, Austria, Serbia, Czechia, Romania, Poland and Hungary. It should also be noted that 6 of these 8 nations are not testing very much. However, Austria leads all of Europe in testing pro capita and Switzerland has tested a great deal as well.

So, I think you get the point: the pandemic is now reaching corners of the world that were very quiet for a long time and are now experiencing an explosion of cases, largely due to the newest variant(s), also due to the fact that many in the Northern Hemisphere are on summer vacation, people are mixing more and way too many people are letting down their guards.

One last note: EGYPT. Over the last 15 months, I have criticized a number of nations and accused them outright of not being forthright with their Covid-19 stats, foremost among them Russia, India, Pakistan, Turkey and Brazil. I have also mentioned Egypt, a nation of 105,000,000 people and yet, Egypt only recorded +325 cases and +42 deaths within the last 7 days. That is absolutely impossible for a nation this large, a nation with the same kind of social gregariousness at its neighbors. Egypt has also only performed 3,000,000 tests in one year. Little UAE, with 1/10th of Egypt's population, has performed almost 67,000,000! So, I'll just say it right now, once again: Egypt is lying out it's ass about what is going on in that nation concerning Covid-19 and this dishonesty is going to end up biting Egypt in said ass. Remember December 10th, 2020? I do. That was the day when Turkey could no longer hide its lies and suddenly added +800,000 cases in one day, swinging wildly over the 1,000,000 mark and from rank 16 to rank 8 overnight. I took a lot of time on that day to report about this.

In 2020, I predicted more than once that India, Pakistan, Turkey and Brazil would get hammered hard by Covid-19 and just as I mentioned Egypt back then, I am mentioning it again. At some point in this year, Egypt will no longer be able to hide the case count or the graves that they must dig. It's that simple and once again proof that authoritarian regimes and pandemics DO NOT MIX.

-Stat

 

Holy freaking cow, we had 121,000 new cases today!!! This is going very, very poorly!!! The increase has been very sharp, and we're still in the summer with high temperatures. The way things are going, we'll be back to square zero in the fall and winter. The upward curve now is as sharply up as it was in November, so, we may be headed to a *huge* surge.
Or not, there's been a drop in Europe, and we're delayed in regards to them, so, who knows? It's been harder and harder to predict things, these days. This virus is very unpredictable.

Anyway, the virus is still showing that when people say "it's over" the virus is unimpressed.

 

I think I can help with that: in some parts of Europe, parts that are barely testing, the numbers are remaining artifically low.
But in at least two countries (Austria, Switzerland) where the testing is more than on par, the numbers are only slightly rising, if at all.
Iin Germany, the numbers are rising ,but still Germany is averaging "only" +2,500 daily cases (it was +2,100 at last month's end), not bad at all for a nation with 84 million residents.

However, in Western and Southwestern and Southeastern Europe, the numbers are on an upward march. In Greece, Crete, Spain and Malta, things are not looking good.
Portugal will go over the 1,000,000-mark in the next 7-9 days (maximum).

The difference is that the number of hospitalizations vis-a-vis the last wave are considerably less.

 

Today, 2021-08-006, Japan sprung over Portugal in the rankings and is now currently at 985,690 cases (it was at 807,951 on 2021-07-006, to note). The 7-day rolling average has jumped from +7,372 cases per day at the end of last month to (currently) +11,853. +14,310 cases on Saturday would get Japan to the million mark. It had +15,230 today, +14,025 on Thursday and +11,644 on Wednesday, so we can see a stark upward trend even in the last 3 days.

Japan will become the 32nd nation on Earth to go over the million-mark and it will either happen tomorrow, 2021-08-007 or Sunday 2021-08-008 at the very latest.

 

Thanks for the clarification. OK, so, it's worse than I thought.