Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I looked into that reinfection case.
Apparently the guy is from Honkongistan. The first infection was with the Asian strain. The second infection is with the European strain, which he caught either in Spain or the UK. They compared the gnom of his viruses.
Rather interesting, the second time with the Euro-virus he is asympthomatic, so something in his body is suppressing a full outbreak.
Sounds to me like shingles, once you had them and than get vaccinated, the vaccine suppresses them, they are there, you can tell, itching, burning, red skin, but never the whole misery of a outbreak.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-024, posted 2020-08-025, 09:45 GMT +2, #12092.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-024, posted 2020-08-025, 10:15 GMT +2, #12093.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Tuesday, 2020-08-025 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
The world went over 24 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on this day.

֍֍**** 24,051,170 ****֍֍
+248,298 new C19 cases over the day before, slightly less cases than the Tuesday before.
159 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 87 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 822,728 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,154 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +250,546 new C19 cases per day and +5,602 deaths per day.
1,290 US-American, 1,215 Brazilian, 1,066 Indian, 320 Mexican & 277 Colombian daily deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,468 (-161 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The second day of this week ended with the world landing just over 24 million. Now that the rolling average is just above +250,000 per day, we can automatically calculate 4 to (maximum) 5 days from million to next million. Therefore, if conditions hold, on Saturday, 2020-08-029, the world will likely cross over 25 million cases.

The number of daily deaths (6,154) for the day currently being analysed was less than the 3 Tuesdays before but more than the 4th before. It is now looking as if the average daily peak in deaths was on 2020-08-011 (5,934) and has been sloping gently downward (in a sinus curve fashion) since then.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

A number of critical events relative to the COVID-19 stats are happening right now:

1.) INDIA, INDIA, INDIA: for the first time, this last week, India crossed the +70,000 threshhold in daily cases and every day last week, had the most cases, above both the US and Brazil. India also crossed over the 3 million line. I have an extrapolation up and running as to when India is likely to surpass Brazil in total cases. I posted this on 2020-08-024:

India extrapolation correction, posted 2020-08-024, 09:56 GMT +2, #12069.

2.) Russia is now very close to the 1-million mark. I posted this on 2020-08-024:

Russia is -43,251 away from the million mark, extrapolation continues, posted 2020-08-024, 10:06 GMT +2, #12070.

3.) The daily cases in the USA are slowing down considerably, but daily deaths appear to be plateau'ing.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was 1 nation-rubrik-jump on this day: Bahrain

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +400 C19 cases and above):
​

India watch, margin behind Brazil:
2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 =37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 =20,327
India will surpass Brazil in total cases sometime next week.

Russia watch, number of cases away from 1,000,000:
2020-08-023: -43,251
2020-08-024: -38,507
2020-08-025: -33,811

USA watch, number of cases away from 6,000,000:
2020-08-023: -125,584
2020-08-024: -84,370
2020-08-025: -44,272
At the rate that the USA is experiencing (thank goodness) a reduction in daily cases, it will either hit 6,000,000 today or land just under 6,000,000. Wait and see.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

An uncommon occurrence on the 1,000 list: Ethiopia, now for the second time in a row.
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

Currently at 182,404 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.17% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before it was 22.18%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has generally receded from over 25.5% to now 22.4%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 116,666 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 14.18% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 14.14%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.35% of all worldwide C19 deaths. As pertains to the current number of deaths in Brazil, for those into prophetic religious 'numbers', BEWARE.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. When each of those nations goes over 60,000 deaths, then I will start an extrapolation for each similar to what I did with Brazil starting on 2020-06-024. India will cross over 60,000 deaths today, 2020-08-026 (it is currently at 59,612).

Mexico crossed over the 60,000 death line on 2020-08-023. I have not done an excel-table workup for Mexico yet, but here were the deaths in Mexico from Monday to Sunday of this week (2020-08-017 through 2020-08-023): 214, 266, 751, 707, 625, 504 and 644 = 3,711 deaths in Mexico in this week. Average = 530. On 2020-08-023, Mexico was -39,746 away from the 100,000 line. Therefore: 39,746 / 530 = 75 days. If Mexico maintains this pace, it will go over the 100,000 death line around October 21, 2020. India is going to get their more quickly. India is currently at 57,692 deaths and I suspect that by Thursday of this week, I will have an extrapolation up and running about that nation as well. Currently, Mexico is -39,200 away from 100,000.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for India (current): 943 per day (the day before: 946)
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 950 per day (the day before: 971)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,047 per day (the day before: 1,057)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA has now had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 29 continuous days.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

48 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Vietnam having crossed over the 1,000,000-test-line on 2020-08-025; of those 48, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 8.57 million total tests, Spain is next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-08-025, the world travelled from 23.802 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 23.9 and 24.0 million to land at 24.05 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 25 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Saturday, 2020-08-029.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-024, posted 2020-08-025, 10:15 GMT +2, #12093.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-025, posted 2020-08-026, 08:43 GMT +2, #12103

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Tuesday, 2020-08-025 (EOD = GMT +0):
The 57th -and final- Unit (Pacific Territories) went over the 1,000 total C-19 case mark on this day.

*****5,955,728*****
+40,098 new COVID-19 cases, slightly less cases than the Tuesday before.
There are now 182,404 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,290 of them were recorded on this day.
USA 7-day rolling average = 42,822 new infections & 1,047 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 7th day in a row.
The USA will likely go over or land just under 6 MILLION confirmed C-19 cases today, 2020-08-026.
CALIFORNIA WATCH: -17,915 away from 700,000 confirmed C-19 cases.
16,468 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-249 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 77.9 million, a daily jump of +1.2 million.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The second day of this week ended with the USA -44,272 away from the 6,000,000-mark, which it will likely cross or land just under on Wednesday, 2020-08-026

There were less daily deaths on this day (1,290) than on the four Tuesdays before.

In short: the rolling average in cases is going down considerably, while the rolling average in deaths is sloping down at a moderate pace. The USA has now had an average of over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths per day for 29 continuous days, with the peak day having been on 2020-08-002 (1,217 average deaths).

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were 2 unit/rubrik changes on this day: The Western (Pacific) Territories (Guam / Marianas Islands) and Veterans Affairs. You see that in the rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is highlighted in purple. This means that the value is permanent, since it cannot possibly go any higher.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It would be appropriate to note that the USA now has 3 states with over +600,000 cases apiece (and California, which is less than -18,000 away from 700,000, will cross that mark in the next days). Were those three states to be nations, then in the worldwide rankings, then currently, California would be rank 5, Texas would be rank 7 and Florida would be rank 8.

Not long ago, the the US Military sprung over the 50,000-line; then, the Dept. of Veterans Affairs went over the 50,000-line on 2020-08-025, meaning that the number of people currently in or formerly associated with the US-Military who have contracted C19 will be more than 100,000 (currently: 102,493).

Continuing, the Navajo Nation (currently: 9,573) is moving quickly toward 5-digit status of 10,000 total C19 cases, as well.

Finally, the Western Territories (Guam & Northern Marianas Islands), the 57th and final Unit, crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-08-025 - also noted under the rubrik worktable above. The day will also likely come when the 57 Units that had passed the 1,000-mark will have also passed the 5,000 mark. This could very well happen by Christmas Day of this year.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. As you can see from the rubrik-worktable above this screenshot, California lead in new cases on day 1 of this week, but Texas lead on day 2. This is exactly the same pattern we saw develop last week, just to note.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

This time, 4 states had more than 100 daily deaths to mourn.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Circa 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 182,404 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of NEWPORT NEWS, or slightly less than the population of BROWNSVILLE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently +4,407 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.2 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+3,027), to note. Our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Spiegel.de asked in an article a interesting question :
Why are hospitalization and death are not following the surge in Germany, 1400 to 2000 new cases per day.
2 good explanations.
1. the vacation returnees are all younger folks, the 60 plus are warned and are more careful and stay at home.
2. The virus might have changed again. High virus load in nasal tract or mouth, but the virus does not migrate to the lungs any more ( that is currently jus a speculation by some medical folks, because research into that has just begun. It takes a bit to check the genom ).

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...aradox-a-1c86a930-45c1-4b8e-b9f2-08716b57f630

 

On that re-infect.
One possibility for the a-symptomatic case could be memory T-cells, they are checking that out, especially the folks who are working on a vaccine.

 

India has come in just under +76,000 (+75,995) new C19 cases and +1,017 deaths, bringing India over 60,000 total C19 deaths.
This is also the first time that India has suffered more than +1,000 C19 deaths 2 days in a row.

Just one month ago, India had just cracked +50,000 cases and had 33,000 deaths.

There can be no doubt about it anymore: India is now the leader in daily +C19 cases, over the USA and Brazil.

 

Looks like TX passed South Africa in total cases two days ago.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-025, posted 2020-08-026, 08:43 GMT +2, #12103.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-025, posted 2020-08-026, 09:17 GMT +2, #12104.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Wednesday, 2020-08-026 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍**** 24,324,572 ****֍֍
+273,402 new C19 cases over the day before, slightly more cases than the Wednesday before.
India sets a new record for itself, with almost +76,000 new C-19 cases, leading the world.
159 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 87 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
The USA crossed over 6,000,000 total confirmed COVID-19 cases on this day.
There have now been 828,914 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,186 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +250,768 new C19 cases per day and +5,531 deaths per day.
1,249 US-American, 1,090 Brazilian, 1,017 Indian, 650 Mexican & 295 Colombian daily deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,714 (+246 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The third day of this week ended with the world landing 24.3 million, just one day after cracking the 24 million barrier. Now that the rolling average is just above +250,000 per day, we can automatically calculate 4 to (maximum) 5 days from million to next million. Therefore, if conditions hold, on Saturday, 2020-08-029, the world will likely cross over 25 million cases. You will notice the arrow I drew in column 'N' from 2020-07-029 to 2020-08-026. 2020-07-029 was the day with the largest rolling +case average thus far in C19 history: +260,195. It took 20 days to fall from there to +250,768, a fall of an average of +10,000 cases per day. It's not a huge decrease (-3.62%), but every bit helps.

The number of daily deaths (6,186) for the day currently being analysed was less than the 3 of the 4 Wednesdays before. The 7-day rolling average in daily deaths continues to decrease, a good sign.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were no nation-rubrik-jumps on this day.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +400 C19 cases and above):
​

India watch, margin behind Brazil:
2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 =37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 =20,327
2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 =27,787
India will surpass Brazil in total cases sometime next week.

Russia watch, number of cases away from 1,000,000:
2020-08-023: -43,251
2020-08-024: -38,507
2020-08-025: -33,811
2020-08-026: -29,135

USA watch, number of cases away from 6,000,000:
2020-08-023: -125,584
2020-08-024: -84,370
2020-08-025: -44,272
2020-08-026: +365
As projected the day before, the USA just hit the 6 million mark on 2020-08-026. Life comes at you fast!

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

An uncommon occurrence on the 1,000 list: Ethiopia, now for the third time in a row. Also, Costa Rica is a very small nation (pop 5.1 million) and has appeared on the +1,000 list now for the 2nd time (non-consecutive).
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

Streamlining the old text, here:

USA, total deaths: 183,653 / 22.16% of worldwide deaths (22.17% the day before), -16,347 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 117,756 / 14.21 % of worldwide deaths (14.18% the day before), -82,244 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

Mexico, total deaths: 61,450 / 7.41 % of worldwide deaths (7.39% the day before), -38,550 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

India, total deaths: 60,629 / 7.31 % of worldwide deaths (--- the day before), -39,371 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007.

Combined, the top four nations currently represent 51.09% of all total deaths in the world to-date.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for India (current): 948 per day (the day before: 943)
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 938 per day (the day before: 950)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,045 per day (the day before: 1,047)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA has now had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 30 continuous days.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

48 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 48, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 8.57 million total tests, Spain is next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-08-025, the world travelled from 23.05 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 24.1, 24.2 and 24.3 million to land at 24.32 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 25 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Saturday, 2020-08-029.

-Stat

 

WTF?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/26/health/cdc-guidelines-coronavirus-testing/index.html

Commentary on this by Andy Slavitt who tried to research WHY this just happened.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1298659348617424896?s=08

Apparently he was stonewalled so he made the following comments;

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1298679999264940037

I KNOW that the above is POLITICAL but it directly IMPACTS our ability to TRACK the Covid-19 Virus here in America.

In essence the number of New Cases and Total Cases will DECLINE while the Hospitalizations and the DEATH TOLL continue unabated and could potentially RISE!

By throwing the testing in the TRASH that NULLIFIES all of the Tracking and Tracing attempts to CONTROL the spread of the virus.

We the People are being DELIBERATELY placed at NEEDLESS RISK for the SELFISH political benefit of the Covidiot-in-Chief!

He wants to BRAG and DECEIVE the electorate into believing that Pandemic is over!

He does not give a flying fart about the lives of the people that he is placing in harm's way.

I am utterly APPALLED that ANYONE would ever do something of this nature but to have it coming directly from the Oval Office is the act of a genocidal CRIMINAL IMO!

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-025, posted 2020-08-026, 09:17 GMT +2, #12104.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-026, posted 2020-08-027, 11:37 GMT +2, #12109.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Wednesday, 2020-08-026 (EOD = GMT +0):
THE USA WENT OVER THE 6,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASE-MARK ON THIS DAY.

******6,000,365******
+44,637 new COVID-19 cases, slightly more cases than the Wednesday before.
There are now 183,653 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,249 of them were recorded on this day.
USA 7-day rolling average = 42,776 new infections & 1,047 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 8th day in a row.
CALIFORNIA WATCH: -12,500 away from 700,000 confirmed C-19 cases.
16,378 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-90 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 78.6 million, a daily jump of +700,000.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The third day of this week ended with the USA cracking the 6 million mark in total confirmed C19 cases, and I mean, just cracking the mark: 6,000,365!

This time, it took 20 days to get to the next million, from 5 million to 6 million.

The number 6 million plays a role in our world's history, for instance, in the Nazi-Holocaust of the 1940s, or also in television medium:



Though the above pic is meant in jest, the point is that certain numbers have found a way deep into the conscience of man, and 6,000,000 is certainly one of them.

There were less daily deaths on this day (1,249) than on the four Wednesdays before.

In short: the rolling average in cases is going down considerably, while the rolling average in deaths is sloping down at a moderate pace. The USA has now had an average of over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths per day for 30 continuous days, with the peak day having been on 2020-08-002 (1,217 average deaths).

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was 1 unit/rubrik change on this day: UT

You see that in the rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is highlighted in purple, now that the Pacific Territories went over +1,000 cases on 2020-08-025. This means that the value is a permanent, locked-in statistic, since it cannot possibly go any higher and this is also why this field is already in the table for the rest of the week.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It would be appropriate to note that the USA now has 3 states with over +600,000 cases apiece (and California, which is less than -13,000 away from 700,000, will cross that mark in the next days). Were those three states to be nations, then in the worldwide rankings, then currently, California would be rank 5, Texas would be rank 7 and Florida would be rank 8.

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. As you can see from the rubrik-worktable above this screenshot, California lead in new cases on day 1 of this week, but Texas lead on both day 2 and day 3, now divergins from the pattern we saw develop last week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

Again, as the day before, 4 states had more than 100 daily deaths to mourn.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Circa 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 183,653 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of NEWPORT NEWS, or slightly less than the population of BROWNSVILLE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently +4,806 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.7 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+3,440), to note. Our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

LOOKING BACK EXACTLY ONE HALF YEAR AS OF TODAY:​

Exactly one half year ago today, on 2020-02-027, I started to follow the COVID-19 numbers through WorldOMeter and before creating this thread in Mid-March, I first posted the numbers via twitter.

So, here is the first screenshot I ever made of the COVID-19 numbers:



(You can also find that screenshot in the OP, just go back about 12,000 postings!)


And, now, here the numbers from this morning (my time) on 2020-08-027, exactly six months later:



Ok, exactly 6 months, minus one hour, but it's good enough fer Gubbermint work.

So, look at how fast things have advanced in 6 months time.

Since my very first screenshot, the world has grown 24,273,273 more C19 cases. That's 295-FOLD growth.
The world has, very unfortunately, gone from 2,808 to 830,131 deaths, +827,313 more deaths. That's 294-FOLD growth.

On 2020-02-027, only 52 nations and 1 international convoyance (Diamond Princess) had reported C19 cases and/or deaths. On that day, China was rank 1, with 78,514 cases, S. Korea was rank 2, with 1,766 cases and the ship Diamond Princess was rank 3, with 705 cases. On that day, only 6 nations had 100 cases or more. With "only" 60 cases, the USA was rank 9. On that day, India, Russia and Brazil were ranks 33, 38 and 42, with 3, 2 an 1 cases, respectively. No ****, that's how they got started.

Today, 2020-08-027, 213 countries and territories plus 2 convoyances are reporting C19 figures.

To compare:

-with 6,000,000 cases, the USA (which was rank 9) is now firmly at rank 1

-Brazil (which was rank 42), with 3,722,000 cases, is rank 2

-India (which was rank 33), now with 3,315,000 cases, is rank 3

-Russia (which was rank 38 ), with 976,000 cases, is rank 4.

Meanwhile:

-China, which was rank 1, is now rank 35

-South Korea, which was rank 2, is now rank 74, and finally:

-the Diamond Princess, which was rank 3, is now rank: 164!

And this has happened in only 6 months time. Life comes at you fast.

Food for thought. Just imagine what the next four months, in absence of a vaccine, will bring.

 

So, off to work with me. Wishing all my PF friends (and foes) a good Thursday.

-Stat

 

LET'S TALK ABOUT HUGE NUMBERS OUT OF INDIA​

Today, India DID come in over +76,000 new C19 cases, busting it's record from yesterday; actually, it was closer to +77,000. Currently: +76,826, the second highest daily haul thus far in C19 history, just slightly behind behind the USA's high-water-mark of +78,278 on 2020-07-016.

Just to make this clear: India just accumulated more than 152,000 new cases in just two days's time. If these two days all by themselves were a nation, then they would be rank 24, between Indonesia and Canada, in the worldwide rankings.

Also, for the 3rd day in a row, India has recorded more than +1,000 C19 deaths.

This pandemic is not letting up, not even a little bit. Let that sink in.

 

Slow day here today, nööööö......

 

Were with India I would suggest a very large dark number concerning death, especially in the very rural areas.

I still have a problem with Argentina, those death figures are extremely low. Are the counts wrong, how do they count, or do they have a different strain.
Something is not ok with those figures. I asked family members in Arg, but they have no answer,too

 

The positives ae moving down.

Theoretically we should see deaths go go down to 5 o 600 deaths a day at this rate.
The Covid Tracking report changed the way they report history by State making it difficult to dig out the daily data. I hate it when people do that, So I am abandoning the hot spot tracking. It's been interesting.

 

With LESS testing per the nefarious political suppression at the CDC the positives will decline in what is REPORTED. The same will apply with deaths that were never tested for the virus.

However neither of those will be an accurate reflection of what is happening in terms of ACTUAL infections and deaths caused by the virus.

This DECEPTION will MISLEAD people into believing that the Pandemic is over when it is still very much a THREAT. By the time a safe vaccine is available it will be too little, too late IMO.

 

Not as easy to hide the dead..

 

Doesn't mean that they are not already doing exactly that.

According to the CDC there are an ADDITIONAL 58,000 deaths as of the end of July that are over and above what would be considered normal that are NOT included in the Covid death toll.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-026, posted 2020-08-027, 11:37 GMT +2, #12109.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-026, posted 2020-08-027, 12:09 GMT +2, #12111.
Looking back exactly 1/2-year, posted 2020-08-027, 12:38 GMT +2, #12112.
INDIA records almost +77,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-08-027, 23:16 GMT +2, #12114.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Thursday, 2020-08-027 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍**** 24,615,938 ****֍֍
+291,366 new C19 cases over the day before, second highest case-haul to-date.
India again sets a new record for itself, with almost +77,000 new C-19 cases, leading the world.
Five nations had +10,000 new cases, among them, SPAIN. (See: below)
160 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 87 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 834,970 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,056 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +252,236 new C19 cases per day and +5,513 deaths per day.
1,143 US-American, 1,065 Indian, 970 Brazilian, 626 Mexican & 284 Colombian daily deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,231 (-483 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The fourth day of this week ended with the world landing 24.6 million, just two day after cracking the 24 million barrier. Now that the rolling average is just above +250,000 per day, we can automatically calculate 4 to (maximum) 5 days from million to next million. Therefore, if conditions hold, on Saturday, 2020-08-029, the world will likely cross over 25 million cases. You will notice the arrow I drew in column 'N' from 2020-07-029 to 2020-08-026. 2020-07-029 was the day with the largest rolling +case average thus far in C19 history: +260,195. It took 20 days to fall from there to +250,768, a fall of an average of +10,000 cases per day. It's not a huge decrease (-3.62%), but every bit helps. However, the rolling average rose on 2020-08-027 again.

There is a 17,943 case disparity between the total new cases listed at WorldOMeter and my excel table. That is a large discrepancy and has most all to do with Spain:



You can compare it for yourself. On 2020-08-027, Spain's total C19 cases landed at 451,792. The day before, the total was 426,818, which makes for a +24,974 case gain. However, at the WorldOMeter table for 2020-08-027, Spain is listed with only +3,781 cases, making for a 21,193 disparity for Spain alone. Of course, those 21,193 cases have not been accounted for in my excel table, but they are today, which actually makes Spain one of 5 nations with over +10,000 new cases today, although it does not appear that way at WorldOMeter. The changes in Greece and Ireland (see: screenshot above) then bring the disparity from 21,193 down to 17,943. See also: DISCLAIMER at the top of the analysis.

The number of daily deaths (6,056) for the day currently being analysed was more than the Thursday before but less than the 3 Thursdays before that. The 7-day rolling average in daily deaths ticked slightly upward on this day.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were 3 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Chad, Syria and Morocco. Spain is in parenthesis - see above.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +400 C19 cases and above):
​

India watch, margin behind Brazil:
2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 =37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 =20,327
2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 =27,787
2020-08-027: -379,918. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 =34,107
India will surpass Brazil in total cases sometime next week.

Russia watch, number of cases away from 1,000,000:
2020-08-023: -43,251
2020-08-024: -38,507
2020-08-025: -33,811
2020-08-026: -29,135
2020-08-027: +24,424

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

An uncommon occurrence on the 1,000 list: Ethiopia, now for the fourth time in a row. Nepal has appeared on the +1,000 list for the first time. I mentally moved Spain from rank 10 to rank 4 because of the +case discrepancy. See: above.
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

Streamlining the old text, here:

USA, total deaths: 184,796 / 22.13% of worldwide deaths (22.16% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 118,726 / 14.23 % of worldwide deaths (14.21% the day before), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

Mexico, total deaths: 62,076 / 7.43 % of worldwide deaths (7.41% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

India, total deaths: 61,694 / 7.39 % of worldwide deaths (7.31 the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007.

Combined, the top four nations currently represent 51.18% of all total deaths in the world to-date (51.09% the day before).

India will likely overtake Mexico in total deaths either today, 2020-08-028 or Saturday, 2020-08-029 at the very latest.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 900 per day (the day before: 938 )
Average daily deaths for India (current): 960 per day (the day before: 948 )
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,053 per day (the day before: 1,044)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA has now had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

48 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 48, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 8.57 million total tests, Spain is next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-08-027, the world travelled from 24.32 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 24.4, 24.5 and 24.6 million to land at 24.62 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 25 million confirmed COVID-19 cases tomorrow, 2020-08-029.

-Stat

 

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that this will be handled in the adjustment that happens after the year ends.

As a political matter, Trump completely lacks the intellectual and moral ability to deal with a pandemic. So does it really matter. Once the Fall Flu season gets rolling, hiding the dead won't be possible, the exact numbers less important than the horrific damage that will be on the evening news every nite.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-026, posted 2020-08-027, 12:09 GMT +2, #12111.
Looking back exactly 1/2-year, posted 2020-08-027, 12:38 GMT +2, #12112.
INDIA records almost +77,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-08-027, 23:16 GMT +2, #12114.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-027, posted 2020-08-028, 10:36 GMT +2, #12121

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Thursday, 2020-08-027 (EOD = GMT +0):

******6,046,634******
+46,269 new COVID-19 cases, slightly more cases than the Thursday before.
There are now 184,796 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,143 of them were recorded on this day.
USA 7-day rolling average = 42,909 new infections & 1,053 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 9th day in a row.
CALIFORNIA WATCH: -7,220 away from 700,000 confirmed C-19 cases.
16,231 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-147 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 79.47 million, a daily jump of +840,000.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The fourth day of this week ended with the USA landng at the 6.05 million mark in total confirmed C19 cases.

There were more daily deaths on this day (1,143) than on the Thursday before, but less than the 3 Thursdays before that.

The rolling average in cases and daily deaths are currently in flux. The USA has now had an average of over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths per day for 31 continuous days, with the peak day having been on 2020-08-002 (1,217 average deaths).

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were no unit/rubrik changes on this day.

You see that in the rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is highlighted in purple, now that the Pacific Territories went over +1,000 cases on 2020-08-025. This means that the value is a permanent, locked-in statistic, since it cannot possibly go any higher and this is also why this field is already in the table for the rest of the week.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It would be appropriate to note that the USA now has 3 states with over +600,000 cases apiece (and California, which is -7,000 away from 700,000, will likely cross that mark tomorrow, (2020-08-028 ). Were those three states to be nations, then in the worldwide rankings, then currently, California would be rank 5, Texas would be rank 7 and Florida would be rank 8.

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. As you can see from the rubrik-worktable above this screenshot, California lead in new cases on day 1 of this week, but Texas lead on both day 2 and day 3. California again came out on top on day 4.

Iowa is on the +1,000 list, I believe, for only the 2nd time (non-consecutively).

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Circa 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 184,796 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of BROWNSVILLE, or almost all of the population of WORCESTER, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that we are currently +5,099 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 6 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+3,677), to note. Our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

For lack of a better place to post this as I don't think it justifies a whole new thread, I'm posting it here: the world now has three vaccines approved for use by their respective governments; the Russian one as we've known, and the Chinese have approved their Sinovac vaccine Coronavac for emergencial use (healthcare workers, military) and also one of the two Sinopharm vaccines; both the Sinovac and the Sinopharm vaccines are undergoing phase 3 trials of appropriate size, but got emergencial approval ahead of the conclusion of phase 3.

I wonder if we will have this kind of approach here in the US, especially considering the election.

 

India has now surpassed Mexico in total C19 deaths, assuming rank 3 among the nations of the world: