Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Having reported +78,572 C19 cases today, India has now recorded the highest daily +case total for any nation on earth, unseating the USA, which recorded +78,278 on 2020-07-016.

India is now the undisputed leader in +daily C19 cases, tendency: rising.

 

We all predicted this, somewhere around page 200, or so.

It's very sad. The living conditions in India are atrocious. A close friend of mine has a nephew who lives just outside the slums of Mumbai. She's afraid for him. Very.

 

Quite simply, I would never trust a vaccine from China and Russia, till those vaccines get certified and approved by the EU. At the present I would say the same by any US vaccines, because of our political situation.
Bunker Boy screwed up the response to C19 and is now desperate, because of the election, and pressures FDA to certify any snake oil he hears about.

97% ?
Just ?
99.9% should be the number, like election results.

 

Jonathon Rothberg prophesies a future where self testing for COVID-19 is a morning ritual like cleaning your teeth. ( ac the front cover of the New Yorker)
What a prospect. That we’ll be living with this forever.

 

What? 97% is excellent. People were expecting 70% at best.

There is no reason to doubt this vaccine, it is made with the true and tried method of inactivated virus. That is a proven concept, unlike the mRNA vaccines that have never been approved for human use before. You are reacting with a knee-jerk just because it was developed in China. I do trust the opinion of the Brazilian institute; they are very reputable virologists. There are other candidates, including two others from China, so if the Instituto Butantã is endorsing this one, I'm very hopeful for it.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-028, posted 2020-08-029, 09:26 GMT +2, #12141.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-028, posted 2020-08-029, 09:54 GMT +2, #12143.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-08-029 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
Our world went over 25 million total COVID-19 cases on this day.
֍֍***** 25,157,543 *****֍֍

+257,898 new C19 cases over the day before, somewhat less than the Saturday before.
161 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 88 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 845,891 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,214 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +255,233 new C19 cases per day and +5,421 deaths per day.
954 US-American, 944 Indian, 904 Brazilian, 552 Mexican & 297 Colombian daily deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,262 (-1 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We ended the fifth day of this week going over the 25 million mark. You can see from the excel table excerpt that in one mathematical month, from 2020-07-029 to 2020-08-029, the world travelled 8 million cases, from 17 million to 25 million.

The worldwide rolling average in daily cases has begun to rise again, while the worldwide rolling average in daily deaths is currently in flux.

The number of daily deaths (5,214) for the day currently being analysed was less than the 4 Saturdays before.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012. As you can see, at the end of August, 2020, we are already at 25 million cases.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 1 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: DRC

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +400 C19 cases and above):
​

India watch, margin behind Brazil:
2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 = 37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 = 20,327
2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 = 27,787
2020-08-027: -379,918. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 34,107
2020-08-028: -351,365. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 28,533
2020-08-029: -307,253. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 44,112
2020-08-030: ?
India will surpass Brazil in total cases sometime next week.

Russia watch, number of cases away from 1,000,000:
2020-08-023: -43,251
2020-08-024: -38,507
2020-08-025: -33,811
2020-08-026: -29,135
2020-08-027: -24,424
2020-08-028: -19,595
2020-08-029: -14,654
2020-08-030: ?

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 186,855 / 22.09% of worldwide deaths (22.11% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 120,498 / 14.25 % of worldwide deaths (14.23% the day before), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

India, total deaths: 63,657 / 7.52 % of worldwide deaths (7.46 the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 63,146 / 7.46 % of worldwide deaths (7.45% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

Combined, the top four nations currently represent 51.32% of all total deaths in the world to-date (51.25% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 889 per day (the day before: 877)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 954 per day (the day before: 957)
Average daily deaths for India (current): 973 per day (the day before: 969)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

49 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Switzerland having crossed over the 1,000,000 test line on 2020-08-029; of those 49, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Both currently at 8.50 million total tests, Spain and Italy are next to cross over the 10-million line. The USA is now only 10 million tests behind China in the total test count.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-08-029, the world travelled from 24.899 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 24.9, 25.0 and 25.1 million to land at 24.9 million, at 25.16 million. At this trajectory, the world will most definitely go over 26 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, 2020-09-002.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-028, posted 2020-08-029, 09:54 GMT +2, #12143.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-029, posted 2020-08-030, 09:10 GMT +2, #12156.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Saturday, 2020-08-029 (EOD = GMT +0):
CALIFORNIA went over 700,000 total confirmed C-19 cases on this day.

******6,139,078******
+42,483 new COVID-19 cases, slightly less cases than the Saturday before.
There are now 186,855 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 954 of them were recorded on this day.
USA 7-day rolling average = 42,521 new infections & 954 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 11th day in a row.
The USA daily death average stayed under +1,000 for a 2nd day in a row, a good sign.
16,025 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-159 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 81.1 million, now less than 9 million behind China.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The sixth day of this week ended with the USA landing at the 6.14 million mark in total confirmed C19 cases.

I'm not sure that people are really registering what a big number "700,000" is, but the fact that one state in the USA (and pretty soon, it will be three) has crossed over 700,000 cases is just.... amazing. Soon, California will be far closer to 1,000,000 cases than it is to 500,000 and the day will very likely come when California, Texas and Florida will all three go into the 7-digit zone. Before you read any further, I would ask of you to take a quiet moment and reflect on this paragraph.

There were less daily deaths on this day (954) than on 4 saturays before.

The rolling average in cases and daily deaths are both going downward. The USA has had an average of over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths per day for 31 continuous days, with the peak day having been on 2020-08-002 (1,217 average deaths). That average was broken on 2020-08-028, when the USA went under the 1,000 average.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: AZ

You see that in the rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is highlighted in purple, now that the Pacific Territories went over +1,000 cases on 2020-08-025. This means that the value is a permanent, locked-in statistic, since it cannot possibly go any higher and this is also why this field is already in the table for the rest of the week. You will also see that in total deaths and new deaths, I have already fed in the value for highest numeric category, as there is no way this week that those numbers will be reached. In the future, most likely, but not this week.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It would be appropriate to note that the USA now has 3 states with over +600,000 cases apiece, with California having passed the 700,000 case mark on 2020-08-029. Were those three states to be nations, then in the worldwide rankings, then currently, California would be rank 5, Texas would be rank 7 and Florida would be rank 8.

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. As you can see from the rubrik-worktable above this screenshot, California lead in new cases on day 1 of this week, but Texas lead on both day 2 and day 3. California again came out on top on days 4 and 5, whereas Texas lead on day 6. Florida has been rank 3 for exactly 3 weeks, now. The last time that Florida lead in +cases was on Saturday, 2020-08-008.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Circa 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 186,855 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of OVERLAND PARK, or somewhat less than the population of GRAND PRAIRIE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that we are currently +5,458 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 6.4 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,727), to note. Our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

A numeric palindrome like this is unusual:

 

You do not get the irony, election results in China are 99%, so 97% for the vaccine is not really that good, don't you think so ?

When it comes to c19, I do not believe what China, Russia, Brazil and to a lesser degree the US tells us, same for Turkey, NK and so on.

 

Oh, yeah, I didn't get the electoral part. Haha, funny, and a decent point.

No, this 97% is coming from the Brazilians, not from China. At least, that's the source I consulted, and I happen to know very well the Instituto Butantã and I do trust them. I can't transfer my trust to you or detail very much why I trust them and what's my relationship to them without disclosing private information, but yes, I do trust them. To compare Brazil to Turkey and North Korea is quite preposterous, or even to China and Russia. The Brazilians are much more reliable than those countries you've mentioned. Sure, they have a quite nutsy president right now, but the Instituto Butantã is actually a state institution, linked to the government of the State of São Paulo (Brazil's most developed state; a state that is as developed and as advanced as any first world country). So I trust them because I know them very well and while I do not trust the current federal government in Brazil, I do trust the Instituto Butantã. Not only they are State but they are also very independent, very well-trained, very reputable, and they enjoy a lot of credibility among the international scientific community.

 

INDIA IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TO +80,000 DAILY C19 CASES.​

Yesterday, India recorded +78,572 fresh C19 cases, breaking all previous records.

Today, India recorded +79,457 new C19 cases, breaking yesterday's record.

Also, India has now had five straight days of +76,000 cases or more:



Those are likely the end-stats for India for this day. Notice that the weekly average from last Sunday to today went from +65,410 per day to +73,426 per day. The USA, until now, has never seen this kind of average.

 

That was a predictable train wreck waiting to happen. With how infectious this virus is, given how so many Indians live in conditions of poverty in over-crowded quarters with barely access to soap and clean water, and given the country's huge population, I was actually surprised that they seemed to have it under control at first. Well, sadly, predictably it didn't last. I think India has the potential to become the hardest hit country in the world.

 

@gnoib

If you will, explore a bit the history of the Instituto Butantã (as the name should be written in modern Portuguese, and as it is called in official governmental texts, but oddly, the Institute itself prefers the old spelling Butantan).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instituto_Butantan

It is a majorly reliable organization that is quite internationally prestigious, with their 119 years of existence and pioneering work. They operate in close relationship with two other outstanding organizations, the Institut Pasteur in Paris, France, and the Fiocruz (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz), in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, which is the other biological organization in Brazil that has earned international acclaim and respect.

Here is their English-language website, with their cute moto "In Service of Life":

http://butantan.gov.br/instituto-butantan

 

Sorry, 97%. Can not find that number on the internet. I speak Spanish fluent, reading Portuguese is easy

If there were a vaccine, which has the unbelievable high number of 97%, don't you think, that it would be world news.
I mean serious World News, Big Time, every were.
97%, c19 would be over, done, Hasta La Vista, Tschuess, Good By, Winke Winke.

Nope, I call it a BS claim, show us the research by Butantan, their press release, their documentations.
I call your cute claim BS.

I says 97 degrees in the shade, real hot, real, hot in the shaaaaaade

186.000 deeed on parade.............

You get the drift?

You need to watch, but without that joint.

 

Sorry, fellow. Don't EVER accuse me of BS because I DON'T DO THAT. If you can't find the information and you don't know how to go about it (you not being a professional in this area like I am), don't blame me.

Here:

Sorry, I did make a mistake. I said 97% but it's rather 97.4%. Oh the horror, it's BS, I forgot to include 0.4% more!!!

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.31.20161216v1

Now, the above is the complete result of the Phase 2 trial. Click on Preview PDF to have access to the whole thing.

And you say people are not talking about it? Yes, they are. Here:

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1293062320319426560

You think the Instituto Butantan is not involved? Yes, they are, here:

https://www.saopaulo.sp.gov.br/coronavirus/vacina/?no-cache

See on the top of the page, CoronaVac, and Instituto Butantan. This is the OFFICIAL page of the São Paulo State Government.

Browse down and see the Brazilian component of phase 3, with 9,000 subjects, all of them healthcare workers (in the green box). 12 test sites, scroll further down and you'll see them listed.

Now, what happens is that Phase 3 HASN'T ENDED YET!!! (as you can see on the page; it started on July 21st).

So, if you WERE familiar with this process (which you obviously aren't) you'd know that there AREN'T publications with the phase 3 Brazilian results yet. It would be highly unethical to publish before it is all concluded... But what happens is that I have friends in the Instituto Butantan, and I asked them, "how is your phase 3 going; are you confirming the 97% of seroconversion found by the Chinese?" And the answer was an enthusiastic YES!

Now, feel free to doubt that part if you will, but the results WILL be published and I'll be happy to add them to this thread once they are. But I can't obviously show you a draft that hasn't been sent anywhere yet.

But do you want to see an article in the Brazilian press confirming that the Butantan is so enthusiastic about the CoronaVac that they are recommending fast approval and are already saying they will produce 45 million doses in December 2020, 60 million in March 2021, and 100 million in May 2021? Since you say you read Portuguese, here it is:

https://jovempan.com.br/noticias/br...onavac-diz-diretor-do-instituto-butantan.html

By the way, it is against the rules of this site to post in a foreign language, but I speak fluent Portuguese too, so if you doubt it, PM me and I can chat with you in Portuguese. Why did I learn Portuguese? PRECISELY BECAUSE OF MY RELATIONSHIP WITH THE INSTITUTO BUTANTAN!!! Which is why I have friends there.

Do you want proof that the Brazilian portion hasn't concluded yet, which is why you can't find a paper? Here, an article from two days ago:

As per the rules of this site and what the moderator Adfundum told me, here is the translation:

Now, of course, what happened is that Dr. Dimas Covas (we often call him Dimas Tadeu, including his middle name) knows that the vaccine is seroconverting at 97%... but he can't say it officially because phase 3 hasn't concluded yet. Do you remember the brouhaha against Moderna because they issued a press release before their phase 1 concluded? Well, Dimas Tadeu is not stupid and is not a spring chicken, being WAAAAAY more experienced with vaccines than Moderna, being the director of one of the biggest vaccine makers in the world, unlike Moderna that has never placed a product in the market, so he absolutely won't make the same mistake. Which is why you CAN'T find a press release... LOL.

Do you think Anvisa would have issued "immediate agreement" if the Brazilian portion of phase 3 were going poorly and not replicating the Chinese results??? Of course not!!! The enthusiasm and the willingness to jump into production immediately (delivering 45 million doses already in December) is PRECISELY because it is going so well.

I do have the insider information... obviously I can't publish here my interaction with my buddies from the Butantan, because it would violate their confidentiality... but it WILL be published and you'll hopefully eat crow when it does. Meanwhile, the evidence above is more than sufficient, as Anvisa would NEVER issue the immediate agreement and the Institute would NEVER jump into the expensive production of 45 million doses if they weren't absolutely in awe of the preliminary results.

Why do you think Dimas Tadeu went running to ANVISA? Look at the timeline... because he has just collected the internal results of the antibodies tests at 28 days!!! Which happened at the end of the third week in August, given their start date of July 21st. They collected the data, analysed it, and he ran to Brasilia, and then mentioned the agreement to the press (without disclosing the scientific data to the public, of course, not to be accused of releasing results before the full conclusion of phase 3, like Moderna was accused; the international scientific community is not kind to people who make this kind of rookie mistake). QED.

Now, I expect from you an apology for having called me BS'ter. Please, kindly say your apology in your next post. Thank you.

 

@557 look at the post above... This guy gnoib is calling *me* a BS'ter, LOL. Can you believe it?

 

By the way, the absence of more diffusion of this in the American press is understandable. This is a blow to American pride. I mean, here we are, struggling with the Pfizer mRNA vaccine we already reserved for 1.9 billion dollars, which, oops, requires storage and handling at -70 to -90 degrees... The Moderna one running into trouble with minority recruitment to complete their phase 3 with the required ethnic mix by the FDA to represent the population... and with only some 8,000 subjects so far; Moderna being under doubts by the NIH for not being experienced enough to run a large phase 3 trial... and we got them half a billion dollars too. We say that maybe we'll have a vaccine in early 2021... Fauci is saying we should get at most 70% seroconversion... the FDA says they'll approve a vaccine with 50% seroconversion...

And then, boom, the Chinese come up with a stable, inactivated virus vaccine that doesn't require super-low temperatures (which simplies a lot the distribution logistics) and produces a whooping 97.4% seroconversion, has already reached 24,000 test subjects (9,000 of them in Brazil) and the preliminary data are so good that the Chinese have already started vaccinating their healthcare workers and their military, and the Instituto Butantan in Brazil through the technology transfer agreement is already fast-tracking approval and is poised to deliver 45 million doses to their universal healthcare system already in December 2020...

This puts Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca to shame... and indicates that American and European technology are no longer the absolute world leaders. Here come the Asians and the South Americans...

No wonder it's not being widely commented upon here...

But rest assured, it will be. Like I said, it looks like we have a winner, and it's not American or European...

 

@gnoib After reading post # 12165, read this:

By the way, a few days ago Dimas Tadeu *did* mention the number 97%... actually said "more than 97%" although he was careful to put it in the conditional (again, not to be accused of releasing results ahead of the conclusion of the phase 3). Observe that he said so on August 24... just 3 days after the first batch of 28-days tests:

https://noticias.uol.com.br/saude/u...vac-podera-trazer-mais-de-97-de-imunidade.htm

Do you want another one?

https://diariodonordeste.verdesmare...as-doses-afirma-diretor-do-butantan-1.2980888

What about one more?

https://www.sbt.com.br/jornalismo/s...garantir-mais-de-97-de-imunidade-diz-butantan

Hey, what about one more? This one, from a trade journal:

https://panoramafarmaceutico.com.br...de-com-duas-doses-afirma-diretor-do-butantan/

Oh, interesting, here is a source in English too, also quoting the 97%, LOL:

https://www.worldnewj.com/inside-th...as-push-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine/?amp

The Indonesians are talking about it, too:

https://www.republicworld.com/world...stage-trials-for-chinas-covid-19-vaccine.html

Oh boy, your Internet skills need a retraining... you said you couldn't find the number anywhere in the Internet and you read Portuguese... LOL - and hey, there are sources in Portuguese mentioning the 97% all over the place, and even sources in English.

Come again, it's BS?

Is that apology coming along?

 

Before I release the worldwide and USA analyses (plus some other things as well) today, here the excel tables for the C19 stats for worldwide and the top 4 nations:

Worldwide​

USA​

BRAZIL​

INDIA​

RUSSIA​

This gives you the reader a good overview of the change in the weekly averages (columns N, O), from the Sunday before to this Sunday.

-Stat

 

This looks like a lecture, chill.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-029, posted 2020-08-030, 09:10 GMT +2, #12156.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-029, posted 2020-08-030, 09:27 GMT +2, #12157.
India records almost +80,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-08-031, 00:40 GMT +2, #12161.
Excel data for Worldwide, top four nations, posted 2020-08-031, 09:36 GMT +2, #12169.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-08-030 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍***** 25,378,403 *****֍֍

+220,860 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Sunday before.
At just a hair under +80,000 new C19 cases, more than 2 times the USA on this day, INDIA sets a new worldwide record.
Russia is on the cusp of 1,000,000 total C-19 cases, will cross over the 1,000,000-line on Tuesday, 2020-09-001.
There are 161 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 90 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 850,163 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,272 of them were on this day.
Worldwide weekly rolling averages: +257,214 new C19 cases per day and +5,424 deaths per day.
963 Indian, 673 Mexican, 398 Brazilian, 369 US-American & 300 Colombian daily deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,372 (+110 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We ended this week going close to the 25.4 million mark worldwide.

The worldwide weekly average in daily cases has risen from +251,399 to +257,214, while the worldwide weekly average in daily deaths dropped from +5,634 to +5,424. So, cases rising, deaths receding. We've seen this happen before... the difference this time around is the the USA is not driving the increase in average worldwide cases, and neither is Brazil. India is doing it in part, but a number of somewhat smaller nations are gathering more and more +cases per day, which I personally consider to be a very ominous sign for the Fall of 2020.

Can anyone remember when the world had an average of less than +200,000 C19 cases per day? I can tell you: it was on 2020-07-008, about 7 weeks ago.

The number of daily deaths (4,272) for the day currently being analysed was more than the Sunday directly before but less than the 3 Saturdays before that.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012. As you can see, at the end of August, 2020, we are already at 25 million cases.

A number of major numerical events in C19 history are going to happen this week:​

-Russia will most definitely cross over the 1 million mark, either Tuesday, or Wednesday at the latest.

-Both Brazil and India will most definitely cross over the 4 million mark within this week, they could very well do it on the same day; further it could end up being the very same day in which India will surpass Brazil and become rank 2 in the worldwide rankings.

-The USA will overtake China in the total number of performed C19 tests sometime this week, I suspect, on Wednesday, Thursday at the latest.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
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By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 3 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Greece, Croatia and Ethiopia. This is especially important in the case of Ethiopia, which is part of my (still running) "Future Upperdecks" series.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +20 C19 cases and above):
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The countries highlighted in GREEN this time around are the 11 countries in my "Future Upperdecks" series, for which I will be posting an update today, 2020-08-031.

India watch, margin behind Brazil:

2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 = 37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 = 20,327
2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 = 27,787
2020-08-027: -379,918. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 34,107
2020-08-028: -351,365. Margin reduction over 2020-08-027 = 28,533
2020-08-029: -307,253. Margin reduction over 2020-08-028 = 44,112
2020-08-030: -243,132. Margin reduction over 2020-08-028 = 64,121
The current margin spread for 2020-08-030 is important in that I promised an update on the India/Brazil analysis, which will be coming out today.

India will surpass Brazil in total cases sometime this week. Hard to say exactly when, but two days before, we will know for sure. I am thinking Thursday or Friday of this week. Wait and see.

Russia watch, number of cases away from 1,000,000:
2020-08-023: -43,251
2020-08-024: -38,507
2020-08-025: -33,811
2020-08-026: -29,135
2020-08-027: -24,424
2020-08-028: -19,595
2020-08-029: -14,654
2020-08-030: -9,674

As is the case with the India/Brazil margin spread, the Russia number away from 1 million is also important as I also promised a Russia update today, and it will follow the two major regular analyses. But as you can see with your own eyes, a little less than 4,840 new cases per day today and tomorrow would put Russia over the top tomorrow, 2020-09-001. If not then, then on 2020-09-002 at the very latest.

Psssst.... don't tell anyone....pssst.... the figures for Russia for 2020-08-031 are already in; Russia will DEFINTELY go over 1,000,000 on September 1, 2020 (WWII-day). Somehow poetic.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

Once again, Nepal has reached the +1,000 list, and on a Sunday, to boot, kind of the odd man out in the grand scheme of things. It's very discouraging that France reported more than +5,000 cases. As you can see, Russia, France, the UK and Italy are the European nations on the +1,000-list. We also see that just under the +10,000-mark are 4 Middle-and-South American nations.
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In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
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The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 187,224 / 22.02% of worldwide deaths (22.09% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 120,896 / 14.22% of worldwide deaths (14.25% the day before), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

India, total deaths: 64,617 / 7.60% of worldwide deaths (7.52 the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 63,819 / 7.51% of worldwide deaths (7.46% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

Combined, the top four nations currently represent 51.35% of all total deaths in the world to-date (51.32% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 875 per day (the day before: 889)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 945 per day (the day before: 954)
Average daily deaths for India (current): 989 per day (the day before: 973)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

49 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Switzerland having crossed over the 1,000,000 test line on 2020-08-029; of those 49, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 8.6 and 8.5 million total tests, respectively, Italy and Spain are next to cross over the 10-million line. The USA is now only 8.6 million tests behind China in the total test count.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-08-030, the world travelled from 25.16 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 25.2 and 25.3 million to land at 25.38 million. At this trajectory, the world will most definitely go over 26 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, 2020-09-002.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-029, posted 2020-08-030, 09:27 GMT +2, #12157.
India records almost +80,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-08-031, 00:40 GMT +2, #12161.
Excel data for Worldwide, top four nations, posted 2020-08-031, 09:36 GMT +2, #12169.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-030, posted 2020-08-031, 10:31 GMT +2, #12171.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Sunday, 2020-08-030 (EOD = GMT +0):

******6,173,236******
+34,158 new COVID-19 cases, slightly more cases than the Sunday before.
There are now 187,224 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 369 of them were recorded on this day.
USA weekly rolling average = 42,727 new infections & 946 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 12th day in a row.
The USA daily death average stayed under +1,000 for a 3rd day in a row, a good sign.
15,996 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-29 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 81.83 million, now 8.6 million behind China.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The week ended with the USA landing at the 6.173 million mark in total confirmed C19 cases.

The USA weekly average in daily cases receded from +43,931 to +42,727, and also receded in the weekly average in daily deaths, from +1,068 to +946. So, cases receding, deaths receding. We've seen this happen before... the difference this time around, when you compare the USA to the worldwide movement is that the USA is not driving the increase in average worldwide cases, and neither is Brazil. India is doing it in part, but a number of somewhat smaller nations are gathering more and more +cases per day, which I personally consider to be a very ominous sign for the Fall of 2020. There is also the distinct possibility that the USA will see another rise in the sinus-curve of the 1st wave starting at the end of September.

There were less daily deaths on this day (369) than on 4 Sundays before. It is also the smallest daily death count in the USA since: 2020-07-005 (also a Sunday).

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: WV

Over the course of the entire week, there were 7 unit/Rubrik changes (highlighted above).

The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher. You will also see that in total deaths and new deaths, I have already fed in the value for highest numeric category, as there is no way this week that those numbers will be reached at the current time.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

The USA now has 3 states with over +600,000 cases apiece, with California having passed the 700,000 case mark on 2020-08-029. Were those three states to be nations, then in the worldwide rankings, then currently, California would be rank 5, Texas would be rank 8 and Florida would be rank 9.

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COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. As you can see from the rubrik-worktable above this screenshot, California and Texas split the +case lead, with California leading in new cases on days 1, 4, 5 and 7 of this week, while Texas lead on days 2, 3 and 6. The last time that Florida lead in +cases was on Saturday, 2020-08-008.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

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COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Circa 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths by April/May. California and Texas joined that miserable statistic on 2020-08-006 and 2020-08-016, while Florida crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-08-020.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 187,224 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of OVERLAND PARK, or somewhat less than the population of GRAND PRAIRIE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that we are currently +4,977 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.6 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,307), to note. Our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

INDIA vs. BRAZIL EXTRAPOLATION - CHECK-IN AFTER ONE WEEK'S TIME​

It looks as if my math from one week ago was very solidly grounded.

First, the excel tables for both Brazil and India from Sunday, 2020-08-030:





One week ago, I made a projection of the margin gap between Brazil and India going from +500,598 on Sunday, 2020-08-023 to +253,169, on Sunday, 2020-08-030, based on estimating that the weekly average in daily cases in Brazil would shrink to +35,547, while the weekly average in daily cases in India would rise to +68,870.

You can see from the screenshots above that Brazil actually landed at an average of +36,646 (it's descent slowed more than I thought, so my estimate was mathematically a bit too liberal), while India actually landed at an eye-popping +73,426, above my estimation (which means that my estimation vis-a-vis India was mathematically a bit too conservative).

Over at the worldwide analyses, I have been tracking the margins every day since then and here is where we landed on 2020-08-030:

So, I extrapolated Brazil +253,169 (which is equal to India -253,169) and we actually landed at India -243,132 (which is equal to Brazil +243,132); this means that my extrapolation was only 10,137 away from reality: pretty darned close, I would say.

Now, seeing the trends in both India and Brazil, it would not surprise me in the slightest if India goes over +80,000 cases at least two, if not three or four days this week, moving it's average up to at least +78,500, if not considerably higher. Meanwhile, since Brazil's descent has slowed, if we assume an average of only +35,500, that would put the two countries, on the average, 43,000 cases away from each other in margin every day. Therefore, simple, back-of-the-envelope math:

243,132 / 43,000 = 5.6 days, including today, 2020-08-031.

I suspect it will be more than that, so it looks very much to me as if India will surpass Brazil this coming Friday, 2020-09-004.Not only that, an average of +78,000 cases puts India over the 4,008,000 mark on Friday as well, while an average of +35,500 puts Brazil over the 4,004,000 mark on Thursday. But this is, at best, an inexact science. For all I know, India could jump to an average of +81,000 cases this week, hitting +90,000 on at least one day, and that would put India closer to Thursday than Friday. But one thing is for sure: by Saturday at the very latest, India is going to to surpass Brazil in total C19 cases, changing the worldwide rankings. I give this a 99.99% probability of happening.

-Stat

 

RUSSIA IS NOW A HAIR'S BREADTH AWAY FROM 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES: THE EXTRAPOLATION IS ALMOST OVER...:​

Here is the excel-table for Russia from Sunday, 2020-09-030, one week since the last data for analysis:




Also, this last week, at the worldwide analyses, I kept tracking Russia's negative margin to the 1,000,000 mark:

A week ago, I extrapolated Russia coming within -15,000 of the million mark based on seeing a weekly average of +4,664 fresh C19 cases per day, but as you can see from the excel table above, +4,796, which means that Russia's descent, on the average, was less than I thought would come to be, which also means that, as was also the case with me and Brazil, my extrapolation about Russia was mathematically a bit too liberal. So, Russia was, as of 2020-08-030, less than -10,000 away from the magic 1-million.

But hold on, Russia has already published it's figures for today, 2020-08-031:



Therefore, continuing the Russia watch from above:

Russia watch, number of cases away from 1,000,000:
2020-08-023: -43,251
2020-08-024: -38,507
2020-08-025: -33,811
2020-08-026: -29,135
2020-08-027: -24,424
2020-08-028: -19,595
2020-08-029: -14,654
2020-08-030: -9,674
2020-08-031: -4,681

When you consider that Russia's numbers for today, Monday, 2020-08-031 (+4,993), are greater than both Mondays before (+4,744, +4,892) and we see that on the last two Tuesdays, Russia came in at +4,748, +4,696, respectively, it looks as if Russia is either going to come in just under or just over 1,000,000 on Tuesday, 2020-09-001.

Either way, in the next day (or two days) Russia will join the USA, Brazil and India in the exclusive COVID-19 million club.

The sad part: after Russia hits the 1,000,000 mark, the US-state of California is very likely to hit 1,000,000 right around the same time as the country of PERU. Currently, California stands at 705,866 and Peru stands at 647,166, margin: California +58,700. Both will probably get there in the middle of October, 2020.

-Stat

 

"Future Upperdecks" Series #1 and #2: revisiting these 11 countries after 3 months' time.​

At the beginning of July, I published an end-report for 11 small nations that I had designated as "Future Upperdeck" nations. You go back through the posting trail to see why. I started tracking these 11 countries at the end of May and extrapolated a course based on their growth rate for that one single day. Most of the extrapolations did not happen, while the growth rate on one specific day was just too large to maintain over a long period of time. That was the entire idea behind the thought experiment: to show that one day trends are relatively meaningless, that we all need to have and maintain the longer view when it comes to COVID-19.

Anyhow, I though that three months later, it would be good to take a look and see how these nations are doing:



You can see that the table is sorted two ways. Interesting development, eh?

We can see that at the end of May, 2020, when this experiment began, none of these 11 nations had 1,000 C19 cases, ranging from 63 to 968..
Now, 9 of the 11 are above 1,000 cases apiece, 6 of them, considerably above 1,000 cases, en toto ranging from 1,953 to 51,112.
The growth in Libya and Ethiopia was the most pronounced, whereas in Comoros and CAR, it was most "staid".

If you add up the raw number of cases from all 11 nations combined and then compare that to now:

Beginning of thought experiment (end of May): 4,155 total C19 cases. That is roughly equivalent to the current C19 total for the US state of Maine (4,512).
2020-08-030 (end of August): 97,610 total C19 cases. That is roughly a little more than the US state of Indiana (93,313) or just a little less than the nation of Egypt (98,727)

Growth of these 11 nations combined from end of May to end of August = 23.49 : 1

In otheer words, these 11 nations combined have grown 23.5 times in size since the end of May, 2020.

And by the way, all 11 nations are African nations.



Were these 11 nations to grown another 23.5 times in the next three months, then combined, they would have: 2,292,859 total C19 cases.

In three months, at the end of November, 2020, I will visit these 11 countries once again. Let's see what happens.

-Stat