Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Are all those Trump rallies now coming home to roost?

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Short COVID-19 analysis for Monday, 2020-11-009 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 1,500,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week. You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish. Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file)

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 12 NATIONS​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍ 51,233,658 ֍֍֍֍֍
+510,568 daily cases
ITALY is approaching 1,000,000 total cases very quickly, will probably get there on 2020-11-012
FRENCH POLYNESIA goes over 10,000 total cases / BELARUS goes over 5,000 total deaths


​

USA:
֍ 10,422,026 ֍
+133,546 daily cases
THIS MARKS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW OVER +100,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS PER DAY
KANSAS WENT OVER 100,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
AVERAGE +CASES ARE NOW ABOVE +122,000 PER DAY

​

INDIA:
******** 8,591,075 ********
+37,211 daily cases
THE WAVE IN INDIA IS RECEDING VERIFIABLY
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,675,766 *****
+11,651 daily cases
​

FRANCE:
* 1,807,479 *
+21,055 daily cases
​

RUSSIA:
* 1,796,132 *
+21,798 daily cases
​

SPAIN:
* 1,426,602 *
+18,340 daily cases
Spain updated it's figures for the Sunday and Saturday before, it does this most every week.
​

-Stat

 

The Montezuma County RE-1 school district is pulling the plug. Nov 12 remote learning only. No in person learning till Jan 11.
Reason, last Monday we had 244 case, this Monday 318 cases in the county.
Out of control.
No reaction from the county or city.

 

I haven't explained these charts for quite some time, so I will again tonight.
I don't like to use cases to compare data because they are subject to the amount of testing you do. So I use percent of tests that are positive. I have found good correlation (70%) between this and the death rate. Roughly 117 deaths per percent positive.

You can see this in the following chart, but be aware there is still a lag between the time of the tests and death and also between a reduction in positives until people already sick stop dying. So visualize the curves without the shift in time.


So what we are seeing now is almost as bad as what we saw this summer, but still rising, even though the number of cases is going wild.
To illustrate this is a chart showing tests vs cases.


I have another chart that I have not been able to fully explain. That one is positives vs hospitalizations.
I cant explain why they were lower in the first outbreak.



Bottom line. We are on the way to some big trouble.

 

Quick Math;

U.S. currently has 36 ICU per 100,000 pop, thus, near 120,000 ICU’s, and generally, 40% to 60% NON-Covid19 occupied, thus, available; 60,000 ICU’s.

At 60K “currently hospitalized”, near 20,000 in ICU’s, thus, at 120K, near 40,000 in ICU’s......Geeeeeze, at 120K, how many regions will be airlifting their Covid19 patients, and/or rationing their health care?

 

Given that we knew almost nothing at all when the Pandemic began and there was a great deal of concern about overwhelming our hospitals we essentially allowed people to remain at home until they were in dire need.

Now I think that has changed. If you are in a high risk group they hospitalize you and treat you with the drugs that have proven to be effective. This appears to be lowering the death rate so that might explain what you are seeing.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Short COVID-19 analysis for Tuesday, 2020-11-010 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 1,500,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week. You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish. Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file)

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 12 NATIONS​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍* 51,797,152 *֍֍֍֍֍
+563,494 daily cases
ETHIOPIA went over 100,000 total cases / CANADA went over 10,000,000 total tests performed
ITALY WILL EXCEED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-11-011, 10TH NATION TO DO SO
MEXICO IS NOW LESS THAN 5,000 AWAY FROM THE 100,000 COVID-19 DEATH-MARKER



​

USA:
֍ 10,559,263 ֍
A record-shattering +137,237 daily cases
THIS IS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW OVER +100,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS PER DAY, 9TH DAY OVERALL
CALIFORNIA WILL EXCEED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES TODAY, 2020-11-011
THE USA HAS NOW EXCEEDED CHINA IN TOTAL COVID-19 TESTS PERFORMED (160,595,579)
AVERAGE +CASES ARE JUST BELOW +124,000 PER DAY

​

INDIA:
******** 8,635,754 ********
+44,679 daily cases
THE WAVE IN INDIA IS RECEDING VERIFIABLY
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,701,283 *****
+25,517 daily cases
​

FRANCE:
* 1,829,659 *
+22,180 daily cases
​

RUSSIA:
* 1,817,109 *
+20,977 daily cases
​

SPAIN:
* 1,443,997 *
+17,395 daily cases
​

-Stat

 

ITALY GOES OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
​

Today, 2020-11-011, it happened. Notice in the screenshot that one month ago, Italy was at 360,000 cases. Italy is now the 10th nation to clear the million-hurdle, sadly:

 

BLAME TRUMP!

 

I'm getting totally disheartened by these numbers.

My BFFs father & step mother now have COVID. They are in Indiana, they don't take it seriously, and now they are sick.

She's super worried; collectively, they weigh a LOT. A lot-a-lot.... like, probably 600+ pounds between them? They are quite large.

She's in a panic. She's already had a cousin and an aunt die from it. Here's to thinking rural Indiana is immune.

 

I’d be panicking too if I were her.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Short COVID-19 analysis for Wednesday, 2020-11-011 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 1,500,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week. You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish. Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file)

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 12 NATIONS​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍** 52,422,155 **֍֍֍֍֍
THE WORLD WENT OVER 52 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
+625,003 daily cases, highest Wednesday haul to date, 2nd highest overall daily haul to-date
ITALY EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY, IS THE 10TH NATION TO DO SO
MOZAMBIQUE EXCEEDED 100 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS, IS THE 127TH NATION TO DO SO
MEXICO IS NOW JUST OVER 4,000 AWAY FROM 100,000 COVID-19 DEATHS

​

Because Wednesdays-Fridays are the heaviest days of the week (and I have already done this a couple of times), here the +cases, in descending order, by continent:

USA:
֍ 10,708,728 ֍
A record-shattering +149,465 daily cases
THIS IS THE 9TH DAY IN A ROW OVER +100,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS PER DAY, 10TH DAY OVERALL
THE USA HAS A SERIOUS PROBLEM ON ITS HANDS, TO PUT IT MILDLY
CALIFORNIA WILL EXCEED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES TODAY, 2020-11-012
THE USA HAS NOW EXCEEDED CHINA IN TOTAL COVID-19 TESTS PERFORMED (161,917,567)
AVERAGE +CASES ARE AT CIRCA +129,600 PER DAY

​

INDIA:
******** 8,684,039 ********
+48,285 daily cases
THE WAVE IN INDIA IS RECEDING VERIFIABLY
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,749,007 *****
+47,724 daily cases
​

FRANCE:
* 1,865,538 *
+35,879 daily cases
​

RUSSIA:
* 1,836,960 *
+19,851 daily cases
​

SPAIN:
* 1,463,093 *
+19,096 daily cases
​

-Stat

 

Why? Why make such a silly, illogical statement here?
I see no one here giving Trump the blame for the flare up in Italy. Do you?
Maybe next time you can contribute something rooted in actual fact, you know, like adults do.

 

I am truly sorry to hear this.

 

Good man, good man.

We don't want anyone, anywhere, to contract Covid-19, muss less die from it.

 

A number of known negative/positive factors since the pandemic began;

Lowering Hospitalizations;

1. Home remedies haven’t improved, thus, not a factor.

2. Still no preventive medicine, thus, not a factor

3. Protecting our most vulnerable population, mainly Senior/Nursing Homes; Preventive measures have already been improved, thus, not a main reason why we’ve surpassed previous Hospitalization peaks.

4. Main negative factor; Case Hospitalization Rate, thus, record high new daily cases 7-day rolling average EQUATES to record high Hospitalizations.

5. Said record highs, main factor; Tired of following Covid19 prevention practices, both collectively and individually.

Lowering the daily death toll/7-day rolling average;

1. Treatment methods and drugs have substantially improved, however, new record high Cases, and Hospitalizations will eventually offset said improvements.

Previous peak; 59,790 “Currently Hospitalized”
November 11th; 65,368

Previous high; Daily death 7-day rolling average; 1,077 (Aug 2nd)
November 11th; 1,022.71

Note; We will reach our previous high within a week.

2. Thus, despite the fact treatment methods and drugs have substantially improved, it’s still a numbers game.

Last; Trump and his loyalists’ Assessment, same ole, same ole;

“We have more cases because we’ve increased testing, Period!”

 

I’m not quite done with my above-mentioned assessment, but first, here’s a main reason why no one in this forum has ever fooled me;

Critical Thinking; An impartial analysis of facts

Versus

Partisan Thinking; A bias analysis of facts


Like father, like son;

Trump Jr.; “Our daily Covid19 death toll (1,011), and its 7-day rolling average (857), equates to “Almost nothing”

Really?

Well, here’s an impartial analysis of facts;

Leading causes of death, CDC 2018

1. Heart disease; 655,381
Daily Average; 1,810

2. Cancer; 599,274
Daily Average; 1,655

3. Accidents (unintentional injuries); 167,127
Daily Average; 462

4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases; 159,486
Daily Average; 440

Leading causes of death, 2020

Undoubtedly Number 3. Covid19; 247,398 (257 days since first confirmed Covid19 death (Feb 29)
Daily Average; 962

Note; Prior to year-end, will increase significantly, and its daily average may equate to our second leading causes of death.

Question; Is our third leading causes of death, both cumulative and its daily average, equates to “Almost Nothing”?

Again, like father, like son

 

Our county will go level red this week, we have 422 cases per 100.000 over the last week.

Still our city and county Government can not jump over their political shadow and make masks mandatory.
70% Republican county

 

Simply, people - even on PF - are blaming Trump for "whatever"
regarding our continuing COVID pandemic in
But, the experience in Western Europe has been the same
regardless of leadership.

I am a cuppa coffee short right now
so I hope the above makes sense to you.

 

Would you agree that Trump is more likely to be believed by Red states than Blue states? Now look at the number of cases per million for each state in US. How would you explain what can be observed - Red states occupying the highest cases per million?

 

No!

 

So Trump is more likely to be believed by blue states than red states?

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009

Short COVID-19 analysis for Thursday, 2020-11-012 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 1,500,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week. You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish. Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file)

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 13 NATIONS
I HAVE NOW ADDED GERMANY TO THE TRACKING
SOON, POLAND AND IRAN WILL ALSO BE ADDED TO THE TRACKING​

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍֍** 53,076,770 **֍֍֍֍֍
THE WORLD WENT OVER 53 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
THE WORLD WENT OVER 52 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 JUST THE DAY BEFORE
+654,615 daily cases, highest overall daily haul to-date
7 NATIONS EXCEEDED CERTAIN RUBRIK MARKERS, SEE: ONLINE RUBRIK TABLE
MEXICO IS NOW JUST OVER 3,500 AWAY FROM 100,000 COVID-19 DEATHS

​

USA:
֍ 10,873,936 ֍
A record-shattering +165,208 daily cases
THIS IS THE 10TH DAY IN A ROW OVER +100,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS PER DAY, 11TH DAY OVERALL
THE USA CROSSED OVER 10 MILLION CASES JUST 6 DAYS BEFORE, IS ALREADY AT 10.9 MILLION
CALIFORNIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES ON 2020-11-012
AVERAGE +CASES ARE AT CIRCA +136,300 PER DAY
USA IS NOW AVERAGING, PER DAY, WHAT THE ENTIRE WORLD WAS AVERAGING MIDDLE OF JUNE

​

INDIA:
******** 8,727,900 ********
+43,861 daily cases
THE WAVE IN INDIA IS RECEDING VERIFIABLY
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,783,647 *****
+34,640 daily cases
​

FRANCE:
* 1,898,710 *
+33,172 daily cases
​

RUSSIA:
* 1,858,568 *
+21,608 daily cases
​

SPAIN:
* 1,464,868 *
+21,775 daily cases
​

-Stat

 

Bingo.