U.S. Economy Flashes Signs It’s Downhill From Here

We see it every day...people around the world gaining freedom, gaining information, signing into Amazon, etc., manufacturing and technology locating throughout the world, more and more opportunities equals more income equals more consumption. I'll bet before your extinction event that the other 95% of world citizens will all have credit cards and be $10,000 in personal debt...

 

Not quite! I won't be abusing Malthus to demand enforced sterilization of the poor. I do think overpopulation concerns naturally subside with trade (fair trade mind you, with economic development as a core principle). This is about overconsumption and how our throwaway cultures have been spawned by the terrors of market failure.

 

The mass extinction is now, so you've lost that one already.

 

The US will be left in the consumption dust as the other 95% bud into full-blown debt-created consumers...

 

Current estimates refer to 10% destruction of world GDP from climate change. There's two issues with that. It's likely to be an underestimate. There is an uneven effect across the globe, with much higher losses expected in developing countries.

 

You are not stating the 'net' effects of climate change...surely there will be plenty of economic upside as well...

 

Wine industry in East Anglia before it's flooded via rising sea levels?

The net effect is very much negative, with any gain more focused on redistribution between industry (e.g. consumer market changes due to changenin weather patterns).

 

Only if you've acquired newly created beach front property!

 

Although I love the wine industry this is but a single example...no matter there will be significant upside economies to net out against any downside...

 

Already been researched. Any positives are drowned out by the negatives...

 

The US population growth rate from 2010 to 2015 was 0.72%. For the world it was 1.2%.

That rate of growth isn't enough to sustain capitalism with it's historical average growth rate of about 3% for productivity, markets, sales, and profits.

 

Yeah, like affordable healthcare for all, improving commodity quality, alternative energy, banning of GMO crops, affordable cars getting 40 to 50 MPG, low-cost internet, net neutrality, secure web transactions, etc. instead of government and business working together to deny the public most of these.

 

The irrational expectations of the American people are the result of propaganda. Look at how much the national debt is cited as the Big Problem. And yet the debt has a cause. Look. Here's the situation we're faced with:

• Beginning in about 1980, the US shifted from a manufacturing economy to a financial economy.

• Enormous bailouts in Obama's first year because financial institutions told him if he didn't bail them out, the economy would crash and there would be bigger problems.

• Quantitative Easing pumped more money into the economy.

• Productivity has sharply increased over the past few years but real wages have stagnated.

• In spite of increased productivity, capacity utilization has remained low at about 78%.

• Wealth and income disparity sharply increased.

• Businesses like auto manufacturing and airlines are making more money from financial activity than from selling cars and flying people.

• GDP is apparently "healthy" but GDP includes all investments, and much of the QE money went into investments from stocks to real estate.

• GDP isn't a good indication of productivity and consumption.

Here is what has happened since the 2007-2008 crash:

The monetary side has picked up very fast since 2007 and 2008 but very little progress has been seen on the physical side of the nation as a whole.
Quantitative Easing money went mostly to the rich, and this has boosted their wealth and income tremendously and therefore wealth and income disparity.

When the govt bailout and QE put all that money into the banks after 2007 and 2008, where did it go? About 20% went into to real investment in business, and the rest went to stock buy-backs and investments in assets like the stock market in general, and speculating on housing and property and real estate.

Thus we get wealth and income disparity increasing wildly because the bulk of the money has been retained by the rich and corporate interests in new investment in assets, and the cost of real estate in the cities has in many cases risen too high for ordinary people to live there as a consequence.

This has resulted in the stock market rising for 10 years without a serious bear market intervening, which is unprecedented, and the rise has not been based on increases in real value, but in bid-up increases, which means hot air is the basis for the rise rather than real growth. An increasing share of business income is derived from manipulation of financial instruments including loans offered by auto manufacturers instead of buyers having to go to their bank for a loan, and investment in the futures markets.

Capacity utilization is at 78% because manufacturers are able to produce more goods than they can sell, so calls for investment in productivity are falling on deaf ears. Increased employment levels are related to increases in the proportion of the working public who work at part-time jobs, often 2 or 3 to make ends meet, and those are counted as 2 or 3 jobs. That artificially increases the apparent employment rate.

Capitalism cannot sell as much product as they would like to sell in order to maintain the historic level of 3% average increases in production, markets, sales, consumption, and profits. Capitalism is in crisis. And when profiting off financial transactions maxes out, capitalism is going to crash. That day is coming closer and closer each day.

 

To have affordable healthcare for all, first you have to have affordable healthcare.
That's not a problem the Left has been able to work out yet.

 

It would require a wholesale stripping of privileges from large, powerful corporate interests and a reordering of priorities with restructuring to make it what it should be, and no politician has the guts or financial independence required to do it. It's always a matter of shuffling the current corporate-dominated design to create some minor advantage or appearance of advantage for the public while keeping the game squarely in the pockets of the corporate interests.

"Problem of the Left" is a completely inaccurate, or at least incomplete, characterization.

 

Talking solely about capitalism, capitalism will provide whatever the consumer demands. Of course to satisfy the demand there must be a reasonable and/or profitable business model. IMO affordable healthcare is an oxymoron. Many of the things you mention are available today. Government can set some policies to force direction, like 50 mpg vehicles, but government is not going to partner with the private sector to implement the policy. You also mention above 'affordable' and 'low-cost' but what does this actually mean? When 50% of Americans earn $34K gross/year or less there is no such thing as 'affordable' healthcare for them. And in the next 30% of wage earners, maybe up to $60K gross/year, depending on their cost-of-living situation, how much healthcare can they afford? So with perhaps 80% of Americans, who cannot afford current healthcare, who is going to subsidize them? These are complex issues that cannot be resolved with simple solutions...

 

Tell the rest of the world that.

 

Can't speak for the rest of the world...today in the US affordable healthcare is an oxymoron! Sure people can talk about how to greatly reduce healthcare costs but it seems like the tradeoffs always get in the way. You can't force a private sector healthcare system to become non-profit. You can't eliminate private health care in favor of public healthcare. Lots of Americans demand and can pay for the best healthcare, as well as visitors from around the world coming to the US for health care, and in a for-profit health care economy this drives up the prices. Healthcare is another extremely complex topic that has no easy answers. If it was simple to achieve a wholesale change it would have been done by now. Even our government healthcare in Medicare and Veterans care and Medicaid, etc. are extremely costly. Maybe if the US could go back in time perhaps to 1930 and put in place some form of public healthcare and let it evolve to satisfy the masses is one thing, BUT to try today to force wholesale change in our current healthcare systems is a steep road to travel...

 

We have to. A way MUST be found.

 

Why?

 

Why even bother posting LIE after Lie... Where do you get your news, info wars ? Or you just make them up in your head. Obama had a lot of 3 and 4%. The market is a blown up gigantic Bubble with fair value at 13K DOW. Maybe your a stock trader, work for Edward Jones, or Raymond James and you need to believe in the system for you to pay your bills.
You can go read on the ULTRA Conservative website news Zero hedge, they like to the St. Louis Fed chart once a week.
Things are a credit bubble, buybacks off of cheap loans, that came from free money we printed and handed out to the RICH.

This is 2007 all over again. When you hear a republican POTUS talk about rising wages along with his Finance cabinet, you know you are screwed. They always go up a couple of % points right before the fall. It is the only thing they have left.

Just like Larry Kudlow did in 2008, you will too. Preach "It is going to turn up soon, get better, you watch, any day now" Everytime it goes up, you will be here to say "I told you so" everytime it goes down, there will be an excuse.
Not until they take MASS TAX from the rich, give affordable healthcare by stopping the greedy filthy DOctors, Insurance corps, medical, biotech sales, etc. All of it, can go on and on...

What I know for a fact is that for every one of you cheer leaders, there is 10 people that know the truth and 5 people buying into your lies along with all the republican propaganda and POTUS LIES...
ANyone can pull one sector out each week that may be up 1% and brag on it while ignoring everything that fell 10%. The only problem still left is when will the gullible learn, they didn't under Reagan, or Bush, or Bush Jr, now ? Nope ! They will always fall for the lies. Amazing

 

All they have to do is call a Jubilee, dont pay the 21T debt. Cancel out the student Loans. Raise the tax on the top 0.08% to 80% like 1935 - 1985. Force Insurance medical to stop ripping people off, force Doctors to accept reasonable pay. And lay down a national work set of Laws.
It is easy, but "THEY" dont want it and will never accept it. They dont care if people starve in the streets, they really dont... They wont even bother to walk around the dead, just step right over them... Greed is in certain blood ! It can't be stopped.

 

You do realize you are suggesting that the government say to those who hold T-Bills, T-notes, and T-bonds including Social Security and Medicare "we are not going to pay you back the money you lent us. Your investment in that asset is now worthless", right?

See, I think you're not distinguishing debt you owe to someone from debt that someone owes TO you.

 

As long as we have a private sector healthcare system, with few subsidies from government, health care is going to be expensive to average Americans. No matter what type of healthcare system is ultimately created, all taxpayers will need to fund it. I suspect one reason public healthcare does not move faster is the funding is forced on a minority of Americans. Americans who have Medicare must pay a share of the costs but when most talk about public healthcare they believe it's going to be free...nothing is free!!

 

This is a great philosophical question...why? Why don't Americans expect the tax payers to provide a free house, free car, free education, free food, etc.? Why is healthcare different?