Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

THE WORLD GOES OVER 27 MILLION COVID-19 CASES​

On 2020-04-002, our world went over 1,000,000 C19 cases. A little more than 5 months later:

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
The world goes over +300,000 C19 cases in one day, posted 2020-09-005, 01:13 GMT +2, #12217.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-004, posted 2020-09-005, 09:38 GMT +2, #12221.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-004, posted 2020-09-005, 09:59 GMT +2, #12222.
India records +90,594 new C19 cases, posted 2020-09-005, 22:20 GMT +2, #12225.
The world goes over 27 million COVID-10 cases, posted 2020-09-005, 23:19 GMT +2, #12226.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-09-005 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍******* 27,054,187 *******֍֍
THE WORLD GOES OVER 27,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES.

+270,643 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Saturday before.
There are 163 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 91 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
INDIA records over +90,500 new cases, setting a new worldwide record for the 4th day in a row.
There have now been 883,176 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,842 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +270,949 new C19 cases per day / +5,326 deaths per day.
+1,044 Indian, +707 US-American, +646 Brazilian, +522 Mexican +268 Colombian new deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,849 (-55 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The world just crossed over the 26 million line on 2020-09-002 and already three days later, 2020-09-005, we have jumped over the 27 million line.

The 7-day rolling averages in cases is INCREASING but in average deaths, is DECREASING.

The number of daily deaths (4,842) for the day currently being analysed was less than the 4 Saturdays before.

A number of major numerical events in C19 history happened / are happening this week:​

-Russia crossed over the 1 million mark on 2020-09-001, making it the fourth nation in the "Million Club".
-Brazil crossed over the 4,000,000 mark on 2020-09-002.
-India crossed over the 4,000,000 mark on 2020-09-004.
-India achieved a rolling 7-day average of over +1,000 daily deaths on 2020-09-005, for the very first time.
-India will overtake Brazil in total cases today, 2020-09-006.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
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By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 2 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Albania & Israel.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
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I've not been paying all that much attention to this detail yet, but there are now five nations with between 500,000-700,000 total C19 cases: Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Mexico and Spain. Very likely at least 4 of the 5, if not all 5, will be well over the million mark by year's end. Two of them (Peru and Colombia) are now already closer to 700,000 than they are to 600,000.

India watch, margin behind Brazil:

2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 = 37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 = 20,327
2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 = 27,787
2020-08-027: -379,918. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 34,107
2020-08-028: -351,365. Margin reduction over 2020-08-027 = 28,533
2020-08-029: -307,253. Margin reduction over 2020-08-028 = 44,112
2020-08-030: -243,132. Margin reduction over 2020-08-029 = 64,121
I did an independent India/Brazil analysis on 2020-08-031 for 2020-08-030: India vs. Brazil total C19 case margin extrapolation/prediction, update from one week ago, posted 2020-08-031, 11:31 GMT +2, #12173.
2020-08-031: -222,962. Margin reduction over 2020-08-030 = 20,170
2020-09-001: -186,682. Margin reduction over 2020-08-031 = 36,280
2020-09-002: -152,454. Margin reduction over 2020-09-001 = 34,228
2020-09-003: -113,026. Margin reduction over 2020-09-002 = 39,428
2020-09-004: -71,562. Margin reduction over 2020-09-003 = 41,464
2020-09-005: -12,161. Margin reduction over 2020-09-004 = 59,401

In just 13 days time, India has closed the gap to Brazil from -500,598 to -12,161. That is an enormous gap reduction.

100% probability that India will pull firmly ahead of Brazil in total cases and become rank 2 among the nations. When all is said and done today, I suspect that India will land by between +35,000-42,000 cases ahead of Brazil. Wait and see.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

For the fourth day in a row, India broke the worldwide +cases record: on 2020-09-002 with over +82,000, then on 2020-09-003 with over +84,000, then on 2020-09-004 with over +87,000 and then on 2020-09-005 with +90,600.

Again, 6 of the 10 top nations in +cases are from the Americas.

Morocco is on the +1,000 list, I believe, for the 2nd time in total (non-consecutive)

It sure looks as if, with these numbers, France may very well be heading into a 2nd lockdown. Ditto Spain.
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In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
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The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 192,918 / 21.84% of worldwide deaths (21.87% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 126,230 / 14.29% of worldwide deaths (14.30% the day before, for the 2nd time), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

India, total deaths: 70,679 / 8.00% of worldwide deaths (7.92% the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 66,857 / 7.55% of worldwide deaths (7.56% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

Combined (456,684), the top four nations currently represent 51.71% of all total deaths in the world to-date (51.65% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 819 per day (the day before: 856)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 852 per day (the day before: 887)
Average daily deaths for India (current): 1,003 per day (the day before: 989)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

51 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with both Ethipia and Greece having crossed over the 1,000,000-test-line on 2020-09-005; of those 51, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 9.2 and 9.1 million total tests, respectively, Spain and Italy are next to cross over the 10-million line. China has upped it's total performed tests from 90,410,000 to 160,000,000!

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-09-005, the world travelled from 26.78 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 26.7, 26.8, 26.9 and 27.0 million to land at 27.05 million. With this sudden increase in daily cases, at this trajectory, the world will most likely go over 28 million confirmed COVID-19 on Wednesday, 2020-09-009.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-004, posted 2020-09-005, 09:59 GMT +2, #12222.
India records +90,594 new C19 cases, posted 2020-09-005, 22:20 GMT +2, #12225.
The world goes over 27 million COVID-10 cases, posted 2020-09-005, 23:19 GMT +2, #12226.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-005, posted 2020-09-006, 09:15 GMT +2, #12227

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-09-005 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

****** 6,431,152 ******
+42,095 new COVID-19 cases, slightly less +cases than on the Saturday before.
There are now 192,818 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 707 of them were recorded on this day.
The USA is now -7,182 away from a total of 200,000 officially recorded, certified COVID-19 deaths.
USA 7-day rolling average = 41,725 new infections & 852 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 18th day in a row.
The USA daily death average stayed under +1,000 for the 9th day in a row, a good sign.
14,942 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-120 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 86.76 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The USA ended the 6th day of the 9th month of this year with 6.43 million C19 cases.

There were considerably less daily deaths on this day (707) than on all four Saturdays before. Of course, this is a major holiday weekend in the USA and the last time we had a major holiday weekend (Memorial Day), the numbers dropped then as well.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020 (the world just sprang over 27 million cases on 2020-09-005). Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
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By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day.

The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher. You will also see that in total deaths and new deaths, I have already fed in the value for highest numeric category since there is no way week that those numbers will be reached at the current time.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

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COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
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COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

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I find it good news to see that for this day, we were down to just one state with over 100 C19 deaths, a welcome respite.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
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FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 192,818 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of SALT LAKE CITY, or just somewhat less than the population of MOBILE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current, the table for August, then the table for September:




This means that we are currently at +5,471 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 6.4 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,977), to note. If this range holds, is reduced to par or even goes under par as of today, 2020-09-006, then the USA will still most definitely surpass 200,000 deaths on 2020-09-014 instead of the extrapolated date of 2020-09-020, in 10 days from and including today, because by the time the USA average would come well under the extrapolated +850 per day, it will take a couple of days, and 6.4 days into the future are currently already "baked" in. This is the entire reason for doing and critically watching extrapolations as they unfold.

New (as of 2020-09-004): I would like to point out that the rolling 7-day daily death average in the USA has now lowered to +852, just +2 above my assumed model of an average of +850 per day, so it is entirely conceivable that in the start of the coming, the actually 7 day rolling average and my assumed value will be equal to each other. If that happens, I will not reset the target dates listed above, but continue to note that we are either so and so many days ahead of (or hopefully soon) behind the projection. Because things can and likely will change again by the end of this year.

And remember, our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Kind of quiet, dry and barren here these days...... was it something I said???

 

I suppose the slow, relentless increase in virus numbers discourages comment.....

Meanwhile the lack of a plan by the world's central bankers, to guarantee above poverty employment by and for everyone as economies open up, is the new social catastrophe waiting in the background.

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-rate-double-us-410000_n_5f5308e5c5b6578026ce41ac

The REFUSAL to wear masks is the REASON for this DIRE prediction and my concern is that even WHEN there is an effective VACCINE there will be a REFUSAL to have it by the same covidiots that are NOT wearing masks now.

 

It wasn't that long ago that they both shot up into the top tier and they have stayed there ever since.

 

Good point and that explains why nations like Russia and China are using their vaccines now rather than waiting for testing to be completed. They are willing to sacrifice some of their populations in order to have strong economies when the rest of the world is wallowing in a global economic collapse.

The EU nations will probably not be impacted as much as others given that they already have social safety nets in place but everywhere else, including here in America, is going to struggle.

 

They often lack information to assess risk and want help from someone they trust to tell them the truth. From parents and others in control of their world, they want assurances they will be protected. Teachers, parents, and other authority figures should not forget that while they may forgive you for telling them a white lie, but they won't trust you.

Good stuff for a bright pre-teen who has an understanding of percentages. (@Statistikhengst's daughter no doubt lives in a world filled with percentages, averages, and maybe even medians, modes, and standard deviation.)

This applies to all risks.

For older kids, suddenly wearing mask might be accompanied by an explanation that you're changing procedures in light of new information.

 

Someday, that bright girl will be a loving daughter who may be the person who protects you from abuse in a care home. She's just getting a head start.

 

Yes, it is an important point. People criticized Putin a lot for starting vaccination of the population ahead of conclusion of the tests, and yes, it's definitely risky and bold and imprudent, but yes, it may also pay off royally if the vaccine is shown to be safe, since Russia would then jump ahead in getting rid of the contagion and economically recovering faster than Western and other Asian economies. Also, if their vaccine is wildly successful, they will be profiting from it too; other than being a giant gas station (their economy is largely based on natural gas and oil exports) they would become a key exporter of coronavirus vaccines.

The interesting part is, if the Russian vaccine is actually safe and efficacious, other countries would be highly interested in purchasing it, because, after all, it would have results of not just a phase 3 with 40,000 subjects (that's the size of the phase 3 they are about to start), but also, it would be the only vaccine with post-market experience, field tested in millions of subjects rather than merely thousands. It the Russian massive vaccination campaign succeeds with minimum serious reactions, their vaccine will be the true winner and frontrunner given that many countries will want to order it. And then, the Russian Federation population is much smaller than China's so the Russians would be able to finish vaccinating their entire population and then being in the position of exporters, while even if the Chinese CoronaVac also succeeds wildly, China will take a lot longer to finish vaccinating their huge population in order to become exporters.

By the way, the Russians have released results of their phase 1-2 trial (published by The Lancet) and the results look good (although with 50% of hypertermia but reportedly void of truly serious reactions) IF (and it's a big if) we can trust their data (because it wouldn't be past Putin to simply hide cases of serious reactions that might have occurred or will occur - especially given that their phase 1 and 2 trials were done open label and with no placebo or control group, so who knows if the data are even real?).

In any case, by now, not one, not two, but three of the vaccines have shown truly impressive immunogenicity at a very high level after phases one or phases one and two: the Chinese CoronaVac (97.4%, if we can trust their numbers, phase one, but they seem to be unofficially confirmed in phase 2 by their partners in testing and production, the Brazilians, who are much more reliable), the Australian tests of the Novavax vaccine (100% in phase 1) and the Russian Sputinik V vaccine (100% in 1 and 2, again, *if* we can trust their numbers).

I guess I am less suspicious now of the 97.4% and 100% immunogenicity numbers respectively of the Chinese and the Russian vaccines, now that in Australia, a fully reliable country, another vaccine has also posted 100% of seroconversion, showing that it is possible.

Safety wise, though, I am not sure if we can trust Putin. Remember, when he invaded parts of Ukraine and kept denying that he had any troops there? Russian soldiers killed there in combat were said to have died inside Russia in military exercise accidents, and their families were threatened not to divulge the truth. If there are cases of severe reactions his vaccine might cause, I'd think it would be very likely that he would hide them, attribute them to some other cause, and threaten the families if they spoke up.

Efficacy-wise it needs to be understood that the Russian and the Chinese approaches, and the Novavax approach, are more proven than the Oxford/AstraZeneca, and even more, the Moderna/NIH and the Pifzer/BioNTech.

Oxford is using a chimpanzee adenovirus. Never done in humans before. Moderna and Pfizer are using mRNA. Never done in humans before.

Novavax, the Chinese, and the Russians are respectively using protein sub-units, inactivated coronavirus, and human adenoviruses (in two stages and two different strains, one that is more common, and one that is rare, to avoid drop in efficacy when people are immune to the more common adenovirus). The platforms have traditionally yielded good results for other diseases. So it is conceivable that these vaccines will be above 90% efficacious while the others may be around the 70% that Fauci was expecting (or the 50% the FDA said they would still find acceptable).

I strongly suspect by now that the winners of the vaccine race will be the Russians and the Chinese rather than Western countries, which will be a blow to Western economies and prestige.

If Putin succeeds he will use his vaccine as a political prop. He will likely want a quid-pro-quo in commercial deals and political support from the countries he will agree to send his vaccine to.

I think the Chinese are more likely to use theirs as a redemption prop. They took a big PR hit with the virus some opponents call "the China virus" and "the WuFlu" and they have indicated that they may distribute their vaccine for free in foreign countries. They are looking to pose as humankind saviors, despite the fact that they'd be fixing a mess... that they started themselves.

 

I'm trying to decide if I should buy chicken futures in case the designer drugs don't work.

 

What are chicken futures? I do understand the concept of wine futures as micro-investments or oil futures as macro-investments. But chicken? And what does this have to do with the pandemic?

 

It's beyond frustrating. There's team, "this goes away the second the election is over," and the rest of the science trusting world.

One group doesn't need convincing, and the other group won't shut up about their election day promises.

So, here we are.

 

Many vaccines like the flu are still grown in eggs.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/egg-futures

 

Oh, OK, I get you now.

 

300 million eggs is a lot of eggs.
I wonder if there is a way to freeze them.

 

More. Each year 450 to 500 million eggs are used to make flu shots in the US. Each egg can only make one dose and flu shots are at least trivalent if not tetravalent so each takes 3 to 4 eggs. Maybe your chicken futures have a point, after all, LOL! And no, these need to be fresh eggs, not frozen. Yellow fever, MMR, and rabies viruses for vaccines are also cultivated in eggs.

However, coronavirus vaccines won't use eggs. Coronaviruses grow poorly in eggs. And the US government has you beat. We have secret chicken farms for vaccine eggs, believe it or not. They are secret because they are considered to be a national security item. Here, read this interesting article about it (although they don't seem to know that three or four eggs are needed for each flu shot so they have their calculation wrong):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/health/chicken-egg-flu-vaccine-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

 

Not good. As a guy is his 70s, I've seen how chronic conditions have made life difficult, and often shorter, for so many friends and acquaintances. I hate to think of all the young people catching COVID-19 and being kicked to the curb by the end of the working lives.

But might a vaccine help with the severity of infections even if it doesn't protect against mutated virus?

Because we don't know if we'll have a cure, effective treatments, or an effective vaccine, I think we should be developing quality, easy-to-use PPE for folks going about everyday activities.

 

Is it that they don't work or that they take to long?

 

Peak 2020

 

EGG FUTURES STOCK EXCHANGE 2021

 

As I always say, don't put all your eggs on one planet.

Ok, I don't say that, but you must admit, it's witty.

 

Both. Currently they wouldn't work because coronaviruses do not grow well in eggs, but they could, with some modifications, but it would take five years to get it done this way.

mRNA coronavirus vaccines are entirely manufactured in labs, no eggs needed.

Others that use inactivated coronaviruses or adenovirus vectors, are cultivated in human cell cultures such as HeLa cells and HEK-293 cells.

 

One of the reasons for Brazil to be doing so poorly:

Beach in Rio, a picture taken today, in the middle of their terrible outbreak. This is forbidden by the authorities and the penalty is a fine (R$107) but according to journalists, nobody cares and there is no law enforcement fining people.