Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I am all for that.
     
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    INDIA JUST WENT OVER 1,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-07-016


    Re: the posting I am quoting:

    2020-07-016 COVID-19 India goes over the 1 million mark.png

    India is now the 3rd nation in the "Million Club", after the USA and Brazil. This happened about 10 minutes ago.
     
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It's only 6 PM (18:00) my time in Germany, and with 6 hours left in my day, 8 hours left in the day for WorldOMeter and 12 hours left in the day on the East Coast of the USA, the world has already advanced +104,000 new C19 cases and +2,615 deaths since I wrote the worldwide analysis for 2020-07-015 just a number of hours ago. Here:

    2020-07-016 COVID-19 Worldwide already plus 105000 over yesterday.png

    Here the excel-table:

    2020-07-016 COVID-19 Worldwide already plus 105000 over yesterday excel table.png

    I am writing this because in the last weeks, from the perpective of my time zone, we usually went over the +200,000 mark at 20:00, not at 18:00, which tells me that today is going to be a huge numbers day for the world. I suspect that we may come in over +240,000 new C19 cases and maybe break over +6,000 deaths.

    The acceration is not just due to the USA or Brazil or India. Look:

    2020-07-016 COVID-19 Worldwide already plus 105000 over yesterday daily cases - descending.png

    Of an expected +70,000 (or more) daily haul, the USA has only reported +24,000. Indeed, India has reported +31,000, but Brazil has barely reported anything yet (+1,163). A lot of this is happening because smaller nations (or nations with smaller totals) have started reporting decidely larger daily C19 cases in relation to what they used to report and all of this is coming together - it is starting to snowball.

    -Stat
     
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  4. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm willing to bet we can beat that!

    [​IMG]




    Thinking about how we'd be close to done with this by now, if Americans could just do the "things." I feel like

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    In the U.S., looks like several new records today.

    Prior to our re-openings, my understanding was that our army of coronabusters were supposed to
    seek, and destroy resurgences.

    Perhaps my universal perceptor needs an adjustment.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    12 of 24 states in India, plus Delhi, are once again on lockdown, at the moment, for 2 full weeks.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/india/sto...kdown-coronavirus-covid-19-1700652-2020-07-15

    Here the population of the various states:

    https://www.indiaonlinepages.com/population/state-wise-population-of-india.html#:~:text=Indian States by Population Rank , 98,785,114 32 more rows

    I haven't done the exact math yet, but it looks like about 800 million people out of country of 1.38 billion.

    Just to get some perspective here, the 11th largest state in India, ODISH, has a population that is 6 million more than the US state of California. The largest state in India, UTTAR PRADESH, has 224,000,000 people...

    Interestingly enough, and to be fair, the very smallest state, no. 28, SIKKIM, has the population of: Wyoming....
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2020
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Jul 16, 2020
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  8. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    In addition to the above, it seems like our pandemic experts have been incapacitated due to a compromise.

    Said compromise; Science VERSUS Trump’s Ultimatum

    Who remember the 2000s?

    .......We’ve relaxed lending rules, and reduced oversight. Results; Everyone knows.
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2020
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  9. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    U.S. currently at 425 deaths per 1M pop.

    Nertherlands; 358 deaths per 1M pop
    France; 461 deaths per 1M pop

    Note; Back in early April, said 2 European nations were listed on Trump’s “We’ve done a very good” comparison chart. Since then, we’ve surpassed Netherlands, and we will soon surpass France.

    I’m a partisan politics expert, meaning; I know exactly how partisan people think, thus, how will they respond to the above-mentioned embarrassment?

    Here it is;

    “Yeah, but since then, our reporting standard hasn’t changed, and THEIRS did”.

    Really?
     
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  10. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    +13K cases in Florida. Houston, we have a problem folks.
     
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  11. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And, our governor wants them back in school in a couple of weeks.

    We are on fire and the governor is twiddling his thumbs, safe in his office that is closed to the public, because COVID.
     
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  12. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Yeah,
    We are adding about 3 deaths per million per day. It won't take us long to zoom by Europe since they are running only a few deaths per day.
     
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  13. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    The positives popped back up into the 9's. Seems we may have found a new home.
    upload_2020-7-16_20-2-26.png
    Florida around the 20% rate as deaths start to catch up with cases.
    upload_2020-7-16_20-8-54.png
    upload_2020-7-16_20-10-7.png
    Georgia the no mask state.

    upload_2020-7-16_20-11-10.png
    Arizona. The undisputed leader.
    upload_2020-7-16_20-12-32.png
    upload_2020-7-16_20-14-7.png

    upload_2020-7-16_20-15-8.png
    upload_2020-7-16_20-7-53.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2020
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  14. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I finally agree with the Liberals, we could have handled this better. Not everything is a political issue, and not everything is about Donald Trump. Unfortunately, Donald Trump himself isn't aware of that, and that has clouded his 'leadership' during this crucial issue.

    I still don't think the federal government can ultimately overcome logistics challenges, not unless we want a full on national takeover of supplies and produciton. However, I do think Trump could have praised the idea of wearing a mask, and could have averted the politicization of it.

    I do think that while there was a raw shortage of masks, rather than lie about their effectiveness just come out and say there weren't as many masks and to prioritize non-95 masks while allowing them to get the PPE that they could.

    Yes, science changes but science looks less like a jackass the more it admits uncertainty and/or avoids public manipulation when it wants public adherence.
     
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  15. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'm sorry. I'm not buying it.
    And yes there is no reason not to have nationalized Masks, testing and tracking.
    I'm almost positive if they gave me 25 billion dollars I could be turning out masks by the millions in less than 3 months. The sad part is that it's costing us more not to fix it.
     
  16. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    Spain and Denmark have reported that mink can be carriers of the virus which can then be passed onto humans. Thousands of mink in mink farms are currently being culled. Not long ago we saw news that the virus was discovered in Spanish sewage water going back to march 2019. More and more evidence that the virus did not originate in China but in Europe. Perhaps explains why the virus appears to be more virulent in Europe than it was in China
     
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  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Good morning, PFers.

    Yesterday, Thursday, 2020-07-016, was a historic day in COVID-19 history and not in a good sense:

    As extrapolated, Brazil went over the 2,000,000 total C19 case mark, while on the same day, India went over the 1,000,000 mark, making it the 3rd nation on earth to enter the 1,000,000-club.

    It took Brazil 3.5 months to get from 1 case to the first 1,000,000 and then it only took 28 days for Brazil to add the next 1,000,000 to it's total.
    It took India 4 months to get from 1 case to 500,000 cases and then into only took 21 days (exactly 3 weeks) to get to the million mark.

    Worldwide, we went over +250,000 daily cases for the first time ever.

    The USA's daily C19 case-haul pushed close to +80,000. In the next number of days, the USA, now at 3.7 million C19 cases, will easily roll over the 4 million mark.
    On paper, Russia's development is slowing down, but the number of deaths is rising.

    So, before publishing the daily worldwide and USA analyses, here the Excel-table for all five entities:

    WORLDWIDE:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000 - excel table.png

    USA:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 000 - excel table.png

    BRAZIL:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD BRAZIL 000 - excel table.png

    INDIA:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD INDIA 000 - excel table.png

    RUSSIA:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD RUSSIA 000 - excel table.png
     
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  18. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Tampa Bay Times

    16 July, 2020

    A Coronavirus surge is hitting Tampa Bay hospitals

    ————-

    Good article......several doctors describing a grim situation.

    Looks like New York prior to their peak.

    ————-

    Trump’s loyalists response; Don’t think Florida doctors and nurses should be allowed to talk to the Press.

    If they have any concerns, they should e-mail them to Central Command.
     
  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

    There were some other analyses on 2020-07-016 and this morning, 2020-07-017 between the last worldwide analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-015, posted 2020-07-016, 10:20 GMT +2, #11289.
    Brazil / India poised to cross over the next million-mark, posted 2020-07-016, 14:16 GMT +2, #11291.
    Back-of-the-Envelope math for FL, CA and TX vs. NY total cases (extrapolation), posted 2020-07-016, 17:35 GMT +2, #11295.
    INDIA goes over 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases, posted 2020-07-016, 17:57, #11302.
    At 18:00 in Germany, already +104,000 C19 cases worldwide, posted 2020-07-016, 18:10, #11303.
    Pre-analysis excel tables (Worldwide, 4 top nations) for 2020-07-016, posted 2020-07-017, 12:15 GMT +2, #11317.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Thursday, 2020-07-016 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
    HISTORIC: A QUARTER-MILLION NEW C19 POSITIVE CASES IN ONE SINGLE DAY

    ֍*** 13,938,371 ***֍
    A record-smashing +254,575 new C19 cases over the day before, highest case-load to-date.
    The USA posts a record-smashing +78,000 new C19 cases. India posts a record-setting +35,000 new cases.

    The world will go over 14 million C19 cases today, 2020-07-017.
    There are 143 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 74 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
    On the same day: Brazil goes over 2,000,000 C19 cases, India goes over 1,000,000 C19 cases.

    There have now been 591,964 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,769 of them were on this day.
    Worldwide Rolling 7-day average: +222,730 new C19 cases and +5,051 deaths per day.

    1,299 Brazilian, 978 US-American, 680 Indian, 579 Mexican and 216 South African deaths were recorded on this day.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    [​IMG]

    Less text... more meaning. You can see the rolling averages for yourself: the world has been at a rolling average of at least +200,000 new C19 cases every day for 8 days in a row. Tendency: rising.

    On this Thursday, with over +254,000 new C19 cases, the world surpassed all other days by far.

    Worldwide, there is a 5,703 case discrepancy and a 17 death discrepancy between my excel table and WorldOMeter, almost all of it having to do with the USA. Click on the disclaimer at the top of this analysis, if you wish.

    The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, take a look, if you like. I will definitel revise this analysis

    The number of daily deaths (5,769) for the day currently being analysed is considerably over 3 of the 4 Thursdays before before The daily deaths 7-day rolling average rose nominally every day since 2020-07-002. But on 2020-07-014, it receded by 9 average deaths, probably statistically insignificant, but still noteworthy. It rose again starting on 2020-07-015.

    Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases 001.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005.png

    At the bottom, highlighted in green: new future-upperdecks nation?


    143-74-39-22-3
    In terms of total cases per country, there are now 143 nations in the "thousand club", with Namibia having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-016.

    Of those 143,
    74 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

    Of those 74 nations,
    39 are now in the "50,000 club", with Panama having crossed over the 50,000-line on 2020-07-016. Dominican Republic, Portugal, Singapore and Israel are next up to cross over that line. Israel's daily case-load is increasing greatly over the others, it will likely get there first.

    22
    of those 39 nations are at at 100,000 or more. Both Egypt and Iraq have sprung over stillstand China, Indonesia will be next, all three working their way towards the 100,000-line.

    Of those 22,
    3 nations are now in the "1,000,000" club, with India will having crossed over the 1,000,000 line on 2020-07-016! Here the current excerpt from the Excel-table for India, you can see it's development for yourself:

    [​IMG]



    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - new cases 001.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - new cases 002.png

    80-43-25-4

    80 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was also 80.

    43 countries had +500 or more cases. The day before, it was 39.

    25 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 24. Israel's daily-case loaded has increased greatly and unfortunately, Spain has reappeared on the +1,000 list, not exactly a promising sign.

    And finally,
    4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil, India & South Africa. The day before, it was also 4. This is the tenth time that South Africa has gone over the +10,000-line, non-consecutively.

    One 2020-07-016, the USA accumulated"
    +78,278 new C19 cases, the highest USA daily haul to-day and far outstripping any other nation on Earth, including Brasil, which last month often surpassed the USA in daily cases and still surpasses the USA in daily deaths. We can only hope that Thursday was the peak day this week, and not Friday...

    There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19. Soon, I will be doing a series on the Middle East.


    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - total deaths 001.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - total deaths 002.png
    89-41-21-11-1
    There are 89 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

    Of those 89,
    41 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date (one-fifth of all nations on Earth), with Panama having crossed over the 1,000-death line on the same day it crossed over the 50,000 total C19 case line (2020-07-016).

    Of those 41,
    21 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. Next up to cross over the 5,000-death line: South Africa.

    Of those 21, there are now
    11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

    And finally, of those 11,
    1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

    Currently at 141,118 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 23.84% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 23.90%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.


    Brazil, currently at 76,822 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,081. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +22,948 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths between 2020-08-008 and 2020-08-015, in less than one month. Here the current excel-table for Brazil, so that you can see the steep rise in the numbers for yourself:


    [​IMG]


    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 010 - new deaths.png

    You can see the top 10 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.


    10
    nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 6 of those 10 countries are from the Americas.

    If you've been watching the daily death statistics for a while, you will notice a pedulum-effect, almost always between 9 and 11 nations per day with over +100 deaths, sometimes with 1 or 2 over +1,000.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    34 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of them, with Phillipines and Singapore going over the 1,000,000 test-mark on 2020-07-014. 5 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK and India.

    With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. Then again, this text has been here for more than 3 weeks and China has released: nothing. Sooooo.....

    To date: the USA has performed
    45.7 million tests (900,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 24.1 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.9 million such tests. Brazil is very sluggish in getting total-tests statistics out to the rest of the world.

    Facit: on 2020-07-016, the world went from 13.68 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 13.7 and 13.8 and 13.9 million to land at 13.94 million cases. If the world continues at the pace of a quarter-million cases per day, then that logically means advancing 1 million cases every 4 days, or 7 million per lunar month.

    I think we can all see where this is going.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2020
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  20. Badaboom

    Badaboom Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I heard that Godzilla was about toi go on a rampage in early August, but he had to cancel since he tested positive...
    Man, we can't have fun things in 2020, damn covid...
     
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  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

    There were some other analyses on 2020-07-016 and this morning, 2020-07-017 between the last USA analysis and this one:
    Brazil / India poised to cross over the next million-mark, posted 2020-07-016, 14:16 GMT +2, #11291.
    Back-of-the-Envelope math for FL, CA and TX vs. NY total cases (extrapolation), posted 2020-07-016, 17:35 GMT +2, #11295.
    INDIA goes over 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases, posted 2020-07-016, 17:57, #11302.
    At 18:00 in Germany, already +104,000 C19 cases worldwide, posted 2020-07-016, 18:10, #11303.
    Pre-analysis excel tables (Worldwide, 4 top nations) for 2020-07-016, posted 2020-07-017, 12:15 GMT +2, #11317.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Thursday, 2020-07-016 (EOD = GMT +0):

    ***3,695,025***
    A record-smashing +78,278 new COVID-19 cases.
    In a row (+ or more): 22 days of +40,000, 11 days of +50,000, 8 non-consecutive days of +60,000-78,000.

    There are now 141,118 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 978 of them were recorded on this day
    Three states reported over +100 C19 deaths once again, not a positive development.

    USA rolling 7 day average = 67,861 new infections & 757 deaths per day.
    1,679,633 people have recovered, 1,874,274 are still sick, 16,452 of them are in critical condition.
    The recovered statistic worsened temporarily: margin = -5.26% vs. active cases (was: -5.11%).
    We are *perhaps* one week away from parity in the recovered/still sick statistic.

    [​IMG]


    The record smashing over +78,000 new C19 cases on one day pretty much says it all.

    Worldwide, there is a 5,703 case discrepancy between my excel table and WorldOMeter , 4,890 of that is a discrepancy in the USA. Also, there is a worldwide 17 death discrepancy and 15 of that is also from the USA. Click on the disclaimer at the top of this analysis, if you wish.

    You can see that the rolling average currently shows +67,867 cases a day, which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in under15 days each time, assuming we maintain the current rate. We are currently -304,975 cases away from the 4 million mark: 304,975 / 67,867 = 4.5 days, so at this rate, we will go over 4,000,000 COVID19-cases in the USA by next Tuesday, 2020-07-021.

    The actual number of daily deaths reported on this day, +978, reflects a stark rise in Thursday deaths over 3 of the last 4 Thursdays before.

    The real concern (and I have been writing this for two weeks now)
    here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a measureable, uncomfortable spike in deaths will start in the next 2-9 days, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why in this time-frame? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator. We are already seeing nominal evidence of this right now and it's been happening for long enough now that I can start to see a verifiable trend happening.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases 001.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases 002.png
    57: 56-47-44-20-10

    56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 351 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories (Guam / Northern Mariana Islands) may take a while to get there.

    47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States.

    44 out of 57 UNITS have more than +10,000 cases. 40 of those 44 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Puerto Rico Veterans Affairs and the US Military. US Federal Prisons is probably up next to cross over the 10,000-line.

    20 out of 57 UNITS have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 20 of them are states.

    And finally, 10 of all 57 Units have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 10 of them are states.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases 001.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - new cases 002.png

    57: 55-43-16-2
    55 of 57 Units reported at least one new case. 50 of those 55 were states. The US-military and the Navajo Nation did not report any new cases on 2020-07-016.

    43
    of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 40 of those 43 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs, Puerto Rico & Federal Prisons.

    16 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, all 16 of them being states. Less Units had over +1,000 cases on 2020-07-016 as on the day before, and yet, the USA had about 7,000 more cases, so the states that did report reported more overall.

    2 of those states reported more than +10,000 new cases. Florida led with +13,965 new C19 cases, followed by Texas with +10,243, followed by California (just over +9,000) and then the rest from Georgia (somewhat over +4,400) on down to New York (+1,100).

    Again, Ohio is on the 1,000-list. But one other state from the industrial Midwest was also on the list: Illinois. 9 of the 16 states are from the Deep South.

    The former epicenter of the virus, New York, made the 1,000 list on this day.

    But it's not just those 16 states. The next 14 states all recorded between +500 and +1,000 new C19 cases, among them, very close to +1,000: Utah and Missouri


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - new deaths 001.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 008 - new deaths 002.png

    57: 47-22-3

    47 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 45 of them are US States. The non-states: Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs.

    22 of 57 Units reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +156. 21 of those 21 of those Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs.

    Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 3 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths: Texas, Florida and California, all three between +128 and +154 daily deaths. Texas's death toll set a state record. Need I even indicate what the death toll will look like in the USA if 8-10 states start reporting over +100 deaths a day?

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - total deaths 001.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - total deaths 002.png

    57: 47-26-7-2

    47 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 43 of those 47 Units are US States. At 99 and 88 total deaths respectively, West Virginia, and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker. The 4 non-states with over 100 deaths: DC, Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs and the Navajo Nation.

    26 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths, with South Carolina having gone over the +1,000-line on 2020-07-016. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 988 deaths, Rhode Island is next up to cross that line.

    7 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +5,000 COVID-19 deaths. All 7 of them are states.

    Out of all 57 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total tests performed:
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 009 - total tests 001.png
    2020-07-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 010 - total tests 002.png

    I do this now and then so that you can get a good look as to which states are testing the most.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 141,118 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between 136,400-151,400:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of all of FULLERTON or ORANGE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.




    What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

    This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

    Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

    150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
    200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
    250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

    Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

    Right now, we are 2,723 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us right about 3.5 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding weekday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-018, 1,893 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time).


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2020
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  22. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Tampa Bay Doctors are now saying that younger patients are sicker than before, thus, compared to same younger patients they’ve treated a few months ago.

    Does anyone has an explanation?
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2020
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  23. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    Similar thing has happened in the UK though more to do with people having very mild symptoms to which they thought they had fully recovered only to come down with more severe symptoms weeks or months later - perhaps younger people take longer to show more severe symptoms. Quite a lot of research on younger people is occurring now on why so many are asymptomatic carriers
     
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Nice posting.

    It is entirely possible that, had Hillary Clinton been elected our 45th president instead of Trump, her administration would also have made some mistakes at the beginning. Hell, it's been 100 years since we had a pandemic and literally not one person in authority was living at that time. Yes, Obama dealt with Ebola and he dealt with it well, but it was an epidemic, not a pandemic. So, regardless of administration, at the very beginning there would have likely been some mistakes. It's a learning process.

    The difference between a potential Clinton adminstration and one one we are actually stuck with is that the Clinton administration would have learned from its mistakes, if any, and very quickly at that. A Clinton administration would have listened to science instead of scorning science. Very specifically, a Clinton administration would have moved at lightning-speed to get enough PPE for all of our health-care heros. Second, a Clinton administration would have gone into national lockdown sooner, would have stayed there longer, would have mandated masks & she herself would have worn a mask. She would have set and enforced specific benchmarks for re-opening the economy. Sadly, that part about the masks would probably have resulted in about the same amount of anti-maskers who are currently running around right now without masks also doing the same during a hypothetic Clinton administration because those fools hate her so much, they would have cut off their noses to spite their faces in oder to do the polar opposite of what she was doing. I would lay good money on the table that in a Clinton administration, we would still have suffered a first-wave but to to a slightly lesser degree, but we would not have had a second curve within the first wave, which is what is biting us all in the ass right now. What is happening right now, in the middle of July, would NOT have happened in a Clinton administration, guaranteed.

    I can give Trump about 1/10th of a Mulligan for the beginning of the first wave, until about the end of March. But the second curve in this wave is entirely, 100% Trump's fault. And any fool who cannot learn from his mistakes even four months later has no business being our president.

    Also, Clinton would not have pulled out of the WHO, which was a really, really stupid trumpian move. And perhaps most importantly, Clinton would not have sought every possiblity to make this all about herself. She would have been willing to spend political capital to save lives instead of thinking about her re-election.

    Though there are some people in the Trump administration who are absolutely willing to listen to science (and some of them are smart enough to have known for a long time that we have ****ed-up royally), they have either been silenced or marginalized by Trump or some of his cronies. Example: Peter Navarro has absolutely no medical experience whatsoever. He is nothing more than a ****ed-up political hack who likes to throw molotov cocktails at people whom he doesn't like. What the hell benefit is that in the middle of a pandemic?

    Answer: there is no benefit to that, and we will all suffer because of it.

    Nice to hear from you,

    Stat
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2020
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  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It's one big ****ing magnum mysterium right now, but I am suspecting it has to do with the sheer amount of viral load those young people have been hit with.

    It's one thing to be in proximity to one person and catch their viral load. I am suspecting that it's something entirely different to be at a big old party and catch the viral loads of 6-8 asymptomatics who all shook your hand, kissed your cheek, hugged you, talked close to your face or went off into the bushes to to wonderful yet (here) unspeakable things to you.

    HIV/AIDS researchers have been saying for years that it's possible to get multiple HIV infections (also differing strains) from multiple partners. Perhaps something similar is now happening with C19. But I can't say it with certainty. Not yet.
     
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