Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

A favor,

With however many million tests & 41mil cases

Using Napkin math, can you extrapolate estimated total infected past & present.

What's the ballpark real number of infected up to this point in time.

Is there a wild guess on globally how many may have hidden immunity?

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Tuesday, 2020-10-020 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 1:
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations over 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 8 nations (all over 900,000 cases) throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week.

You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish.

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍* 41,023,149 *֍֍֍֍
+387,624, HEAVIEST TUESDAY TO-DATE IN COVID-19 HISTORY
THE WORLD WENT OVER 41 MILLION C19 CASES ON 2020-10-020, JUMPED 1 MILLION CASES IN 2 DAYS
LIBYA GOES OVER 50,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON THE SAME DAY
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA GOES OVER 1,000 C19 DEATHS
MY EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 8 NATIONS
AVERAGE DEATHS ARE RISING
​

USA:
******** 8,520,307 ********
+63,654
BOTH CALIFORNIA AND TEXAS ARE LESS THAN -30,000 AWAY FROM 900,000 TOTAL C19 CASES
ARKANSAS GOES OVER 100,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
THE USA IS VERY LIKELY TO REACH 9,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES BY ELECTION DAY


​

INDIA:
******* 7,649,158 *******
+54,422
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,274,817 *****
BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 27 DAYS.

​

The nations from just under 1,000,000 to 5,000,000 C19 cases follow in Part 2.

​

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Tuesday, 2020-10-020 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 2:
'dreadnaught' nations from +900,000 to 5,000,000 total C19 cases - currently being tracked

RUSSIA:
* 1,431,635 *
OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 17TH DAY IN A ROW
MOSCOW IS NOW A *WORLDWIDE* MAJOR HOTSPOT, COMPLETE LOCKDOWN IS EXPECTED SOON
AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA
​

SPAIN:
* 1,029,668 *
SPAIN WENT OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON 2020-10-019/2020-10-018
​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,018,999 *
ARGENTINA WENT OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON 2020-10-019
ARGENTINA'S POSITIVE to TOTAL TESTS RATIO = 38.25% (was: 37.19%)!!!
​

COLOMBIA:
974,139
​

FRANCE:
930,745
​

 

Quote; is there a wild guess....

In August, Sweden had a 15% immunity, and unlike the U.S., no Summer Wave, and nearly down to zero new cases.

Thus, according to Sweden’s August immunity test results, and their Herd strategy, there’s your MAX......15%

 

I'm not sure you can really use napkin, or as I call it, back-of-the-envelope math, for this. Some conjecture that the actual number of total infections is at least 10 times higher than the official numbers, but there is absolutely no data to prove this. One member of PF has presented a pretty solid argument that it may be closer to 5 times. I could probably buy that. The problem is that there are surely some people who got it, stayed asymptomatic, never got tested and now the antibodies in their bodies are disappearing, which means they may actually get infected a second time as well.

As for hidden immunity, I am hoping as hard as a person can hope that hidden immunity really does exist, for it may save us the worst of the pain in the coming months. But we are not far enough from the event horizon (meaning, the beginning of the pandemic) to know for sure if the natural immunity that builds from getting infected and then recovering holds for a long time, or not. We are seeing more than anecdotal evidence that it is not holding, from the testimony of known public figures, like Richard Quest from CNN, who had a nasty infection in April, was quite sick, recovered, and his last antibody test showed that most of his antibodies are now gone. Some conjecture that that is also ok, just the "imprint" of the antibodies in your body is enough for you to produce more in case the disease tries to infect you a second time, but there is no hard and fast evidence to prove this vis-a-vis COVID-19.

The whole thing is a mess because we have not been in the enviable position of being able to test the entire planet at once. The logical way to kill a pandemic and 100% mitigate is to test the entire population, quarantine the infected persons, test again in 3 weeks, quarantine those infected persons and do this every 3 weeks until the infection rate is far, far, far below 1:1. Half-assed mitigation is just that: half-assed mitigation. It doesn't work.

It's also a mess because some nations were or are now still quite literally and blatantly lying about their numbers, above all others, China and Brazil. But take a look at some of the crazy values for, say, Colombia. The infection rate there, when you divide the officially reported infections by the officially reported number of tests performed, = 38%. That's scary. It means that most of that nation is not testing. It's a relatively poor nation and lacking in the money neccessary to buy enough tests to get the job done.

To go along with your question, which I think it is a good question, would also be the question of how many unreported deaths are out there. We know that from the 1918-1920 worldwide pandemic, all over the place, during the 2nd wave, many people were simply buried in the lawn of their homes because they were found dead in their homes weeks after having died - from the flu - and no death certicates were released indicating the actual cause of death.

As I very clearly indicated all the way back in the OP, some 12,000 postings ago, I can only work with the official numbers as they are given (and sometimes, officially revised). I can't just make up numbers as they please me, that would be unethical and false.

I am also not seeking to, nor will I seek, to make a political cause out of this. Infected is infected, injured is injured and dead is dead. If we really want to kill this virus off, then we must ALL work together and be honest about what is happening. I don't want people in my family or your family to catch this virus and/or die from it. No one should suffer from this.

Now, to my guess, and I am saying that this is ONLY a guess and not a statistic. I am guestimating that the actual number of infecteds is 6 times higher than the official numbers, putting us at 246 million people, or 3.1% of the planet's population. We are nowhere even near "herd immunity". However, if the fall/winter wave gets out of control, we may get there far quicker than we want to. But since I am guestimating, I propose to you that the number of C19 deaths is at least 2 times higher than the official numbers, so we are probably looking at about 2.3 million dead right now. When the dust as settled and see she a plethora of death certificates from all over the world for some reason not listing a cause of death, then I would think it's a safe bet that a whole lot of people will have died from C19 unnoticed.

-Stat

 

Interestingly enough, Sweden as, as of yesterday, given up it's herd immunity approach as things have taken a turn for the worst there, and are now imposing restrictions on the general population.

 

250 million people.

It's a good enough figure, the number I had was double that but I was curious how far off I might be.

Does that mean if the world adds 500k cases in a day, the its possible that we are adding closer to 3 million cases?

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Wednesday, 2020-10-021 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 1:
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations over 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 8 nations (all over 900,000 cases) throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week.

You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish.

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍* 41,462,420 *֍֍֍֍
+439,271, HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY TO-DATE IN COVID-19 HISTORY
HUNGARY WENT OVER 50,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON THE SAME DAY
A RECORD-SHATTERING 100 NATIONS RECORDED AT LEAST +100 NEW CASES ON THIS DAY
THE WORLD WILL DEFINITELY GO OVER 42 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON FRIDAY, 2020-10-023
MY EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 8 NATIONS
AVERAGE DEATHS ARE RISING
​

USA:
******** 8,584,819 ********
+64,512
TEXAS OVERTAKES CALIFORNIA, IS NOW RANK 1 IN TOTAL COVID-19 CASES IN THE USA
THE TOP 2 STATES ARE JUST UNDER 900,000 C19 CASES
THE USA IS VERY LIKELY TO REACH 9,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES BY ELECTION DAY


​

INDIA:
******* 7,705,158 *******
+56,000
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,300,649 *****
BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 28 DAYS.

​

The nations from just under 1,000,000 to 5,000,000 C19 cases follow in Part 2.

​

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Wednesday, 2020-10-021 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 2:
'dreadnaught' nations from +900,000 to 5,000,000 total C19 cases - currently being tracked

RUSSIA:
* 1,447,335 *
+15,700
OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 18TH DAY IN A ROW
RUSSIA SUFFERED 317 DEATHS ON THIS DAY, AN ALL-TIME HIGH FOR THIS NATION
AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA
​

SPAIN:
* 1,046,641 *
​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,037,325 *
ARGENTINA'S POSITIVE to TOTAL TESTS RATE = 38.40% (was: 38.25%)!!!
​

COLOMBIA:
981,700
​

FRANCE:
957,421
​

 

If you look at the excel table for the world two postings above this one, you will see that the world went considerable over +400,000 on this day, a Wednesday. The week before, the World first broke over +400,000 on a Thursday, which also continued through Friday. So, last week saw 2 consecutive days with +400,000 new cases per day. This week, it may very well end up being 3 such days.

-Stat

 

Right now, the 7 day running average for our world is: 390,320 per day, so if you use my guestimate, that would be 2,341,920 per day. But again, that is only a guestimate and not based on official figures. However, when you consider how crazy fast the fall wave is coming and that many nations have very limited resources and can test/process and publish the test results for only so many people in the population on any given day, this means that certainly a number of people who are infected are falling through the cracks and the problem with that is if you don't even know that someone is positive, there is no reason to contact-trace. Remember, according to science, 70% of infecteds do not give the virus to others, but 30% do, and among the total, 10% (or 1/3 of that 30%) are massive superspreaders who tend to shed huge amounts of viral load 1 or 2 days before they are symptomatic, so quite obviously we need mass testing that can also detect small viral loads in asymptomatic people (1 major company claims to have a reliable test that can do just that), because if that particular 10% falls through the cracks, then a huge number of people will be infected and then you can literally kill any chances of contact tracing. It's a very vicious catch-22, to say the least. More like Russian Roulette catch-22.

The advantage to the head-math you are presenting and discussing is that were everyone on the planet to do what you are doing, people would take a moment to pause, instrospect and be more careful. So, kudos to you for considering this.

My opinion, for what it is worth, is that most nations, if not all nations, on Earth, are far behind the curve in actually testing and quarantining enough to actually kill off this thing. This virus literally caught the entire world with it's pants down. Time to get ahead of the curve.

The world is in quite a pickle right now.

Nice to hear from you, hope you are healthy and well.

-Stat

 

Germany, which was at 9,999 deaths on 2020-10-021, has now gone over the 10,000 death-line and is currently at 10,014. Germany is the 20th nation to clear this gruesome marker.

 

If this is what rounding the curve looks like we should have turned left instead of right.


We have gone over a million tests a day.



Note how cases are closing the gap again.

Deaths have not gotten to their low yet.

 

Soooo... the day is yet very young in the USA, just about 14:45 on the East Coast.
WorldOMeters still has 5 hours and 15 minutes in it's day.

Still, this early in the day, the world has already jumped +380,000 cases, we will surely go well over +450,000 by the end of this day. We may even get pretty close to +500,000. Wait and see.

Though some of it's cases have been shunted to past days retroactively, Spain has jumped +43,000, while France has jumped more than +41,000 today. Those two European countries combined will have accumulated more C19 +cases than all of the USA today.

Poland (yes, Poland) has jumped +12,000, Holland has jumped +13,000. Smaller nations are really getting hammered very hard, all over the place, all of a sudden.

It's.... very disconcerting.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Thursday, 2020-10-022 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 1:
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations over 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 8 nations (all over 900,000 cases) throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week.

You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish.

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍* 41,969,203 *֍֍֍֍
+506,783, FIRST TIME EVER OVER +500,000, HEAVIEST DAY TO-DATE IN COVID-19 HISTORY
COSTA RICA WENT OVER 100,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
ONCE AGAIN, 100 NATIONS RECORDED AT LEAST +100 NEW CASES ON THIS DAY
THE WORLD WILL DEFINITELY GO OVER 42 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON FRIDAY, 2020-10-023
GERMANY WENT OVER 10,000 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY
MY EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 8 NATIONS
AVERAGE DEATHS ARE RISING
​

USA:
******** 8,661,651 ********
+76,832
THE TOP 2 STATES ARE JUST UNDER 900,000 C19 CASES
THE USA IS VERY LIKELY TO REACH 9,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES BY ELECTION DAY


​

INDIA:
******* 7,759,640 *******
+54,482
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,300,649 *****
BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 29 DAYS.

​

The nations from just under 1,000,000 to 5,000,000 C19 cases follow in Part 2.

​

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Thursday, 2020-10-022 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 2:
'dreadnaught' nations from just under +1,000,000 to 5,000,000 total C19 cases - currently being tracked

RUSSIA:
* 1,463,306 *
+15,971
OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 18TH DAY IN A ROW
AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA
​

SPAIN:
* 1,090,521 *
+43,880
​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,053,650 *
ARGENTINA'S POSITIVE to TOTAL TESTS RATE = 38.43% (was: 38.40%)!!!
​

FRANCE:
999,043
+41,622
FRANCE WILL GO OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON FRIDAY, 2020-10-023
​

COLOMBIA:
990,270
COLOMBIA'S POSITIVE to TOTAL TESTS RATE = 21.45% (was: 21.51%)!!!
​

​

 

It is now getting a little bit wild for me. Just a tender bit. Now I have 4 people on the farm that are in isolation. They work at a school, which had several positive tests.
Luckily they are educated and know what to do.
The school is closed for 2 weeks.
Everybody in my company had to be tested twice because of the sister event, the belly button. All tests came back negative.
We got the last test results today.
The county is now in the second highest classification per capita.

Got my heater and AC lights in to day. I like them. Will order 2 more.
Winter is coming, Sunday. Rain and than snow and temps in the lower 20s.
Serviced the heaters today.

This will be a long fooking winter.

The Northern Ute closed down the Res again.
New Mexico hast quarantine restrictions for Colorado residents

I did 3 cords of fire wood this afternoon, 6 to go.

This will be a long winter, which we will never forget.

 

Since we already know that there is a LAG time between the USA and the EU it is only a matter of time before we see this EU spike supersized here in the USA given that our rolling 7 day average is already at 63k just 10 days after that chart was made.

 

Very frightening.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Friday, 2020-10-023 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 1:
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations over 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 8 nations (all over 900,000 cases) throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week.

You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish.

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍** 42,363,316 **֍֍֍֍
THE WORLD WENT OVER 42 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C19-CASES ON THIS DAY
+494,113, 2ND HEAVIEST DAY TO-DATE IN COVID-19 HISTORY
FRANCE WENT OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 7TH NATION TO DO SO.
SWITZERLAND WENT OVER 100,000 C19-CASES ON THIS DAY
INDIA CROSSED OVER 100 MILLION TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED
MY EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 8 NATIONS
AVERAGE DEATHS ARE RISING
​

USA:
******** 8,746,953 ********
+85,302
LARGEST DAILY INFECTION HAUL IN THE USA TO-DATE
TEXAS & CALIFORNIA BOTH WENT OVER 900,000 C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
UTAH WENT OVER 100,000 C-19 CASES, NEW HAMPSHIRE WENT OVER 10,000 C19 CASES
THE USA IS VERY LIKELY TO REACH 9,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES BY ELECTION DAY


​

INDIA:
******* 7,813,668 *******
+54,028
ON THIS DAY, INDIA CROSSED OVER 100 MILLION TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,355,650 *****
BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 30 DAYS.

​

The nations from just under 1,000,000 to 5,000,000 C19 cases follow in Part 2.

​

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Friday, 2020-10-023 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 2:
'dreadnaught' nations from just under +1,000,000 to 5,000,000 total C19 cases - currently being tracked

RUSSIA:
* 1,480,646 *
+17,340
OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 19TH DAY IN A ROW
AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA
​

SPAIN:
* 1,110,372 *
+19,851
​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,069,368 *
​

FRANCE:
* 1,041,075 *
+42,032
FRANCE WENT GO OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON 2020-10-023
​

COLOMBIA:
998,942
COLOMBIA WILL GO OVER 1,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-10-024
​

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Saturday, 2020-10-024 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 1:
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations over 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases
​

As indicated a while back: I am now only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 8 nations (all over 900,000 cases) throughout the week (Monday through Saturday) and will publish a large set of End of Week (EOW) reports for the Sunday of each week.

You can then interpret the tables and screenshots for yourselves as you wish.

This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all good health.

WORLDWIDE:
֍֍֍֍** 42,918,270 **֍֍֍֍
+454,954
COLOMBIA WENT OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 8TH NATION TO DO SO.
THE WORLD WILL GO OVER 43 MILLION COVID-19 CASES ON 2020-10-025
MY EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 8 NATIONS
AVERAGE DEATHS ARE RISING
​

USA:
******** 8,827,932 ********
+80,979
2ND TIME OVER +80,00 / 2ND LARGEST DAILY INFECTION HAUL IN THE USA TO-DATE
THE USA IS VERY LIKELY TO REACH 9,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES BY ELECTION DAY


​

INDIA:
******* 7,863,892 *******
+50,224
ON THIS DAY, INDIA CROSSED OVER 100 MILLION TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED
​

BRAZIL:
***** 5,381,224 *****
BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 31 DAYS.

​

The nations from just under 1,000,000 to 5,000,000 C19 cases follow in Part 2.

​

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

COVID-19 stats for Saturday, 2020-10-024 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 2:
'dreadnaught' nations from just under +1,000,000 to 5,000,000 total C19 cases - currently being tracked

RUSSIA:
* 1,497,167 *
+16,521
OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 20TH DAY IN A ROW
AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA
​

SPAIN:
* 1,110,372 *
NO CHANGE
​

FRANCE
* 1,086,497 *
+45,422
FRANCE SURPASSED ARGENTINA ON THIS DAY, MOVING TO RANK 6

​

ARGENTINA:
* 1,081,336 *
​

COLOMBIA:
* 1,007,711 *
COLOMBIA WENT OVER 1,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON 2020-10-024
​

 

The President of Poland has contracted C19.

 

The health minister of Germany (Spahn) has contracted C19.