Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-001, posted 2020-09-002, 10:02 GMT +2, #12187.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-001, posted 2020-09-002, 10:30 GMT +2, #12188.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Wednesday, 2020-09-002 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
THE WORLD GOES OVER 26,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
BRAZIL GOES OVER 4,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES

֍֍****** 26,170,375 ******֍֍

+278,284 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Wednesday before.
There are 162 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 90 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
INDIA records over +82,000 new cases, setting a new worldwide record.
There have now been 866,614 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,291 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +263,686 new C19 cases per day and +5,386 deaths per day.
+1,218 Brazilian, +1,064 US-American, +1,026 Indian, +827 Mexican +296 Colombian new deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,677 (+326 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We ended the 2nd day of the 9th month of this year with 26.17 million C19 cases. The world will easily sail over 27 million C19 cases by Sunday, 2020-09-006.

The rolling averages in cases is rising, in deaths, also beginning to rise slightly - but the weekly average is the better barometer overall.

The number of daily deaths (6,291) for the day currently being analysed was more than the Wednesday before.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012. As you can see, at the end of August, 2020, we are already at 25 million cases.

A number of major numerical events in C19 history happened / are happening this week:​

-Russia crossed over the 1 million mark on 2020-09-001, making it the fourth nation in the "Million Club".

-Brazil crossed over the 4,000,000 mark on 2020-09-002.

-India will most definitely cross over the 4 million mark within this week as well; I first thought both Brazil and India would achieve this statistic on the same day, however, India is likely to cross over the 4,000,000 mark on Friday, 2020-09-004, two days after Brazil.

-India should, after crossing the 4,000,000 mark, overtake Brazil in total cases by Sunday, 2020-09-006.

-The USA will overtake China in the total number of performed C19 tests sometime this weekend or early next week. The USA is currently just a little more than 6.3 million tests behind China.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 1 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Congo.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +450 C19 cases and above):
​

India watch, margin behind Brazil:

2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 = 37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 = 20,327
2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 = 27,787
2020-08-027: -379,918. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 34,107
2020-08-028: -351,365. Margin reduction over 2020-08-027 = 28,533
2020-08-029: -307,253. Margin reduction over 2020-08-028 = 44,112
2020-08-030: -243,132. Margin reduction over 2020-08-029 = 64,121
I did an independent India/Brazil analysis on 2020-08-031 for 2020-08-030: India vs. Brazil total C19 case margin extrapolation/prediction, update from one week ago, posted 2020-08-031, 11:31 GMT +2, #12173.
2020-08-031: -222,962. Margin reduction over 2020-08-030 = 20,170
2020-09-001: -186,682. Margin reduction over 2020-08-031 = 36,280
2020-09-002: -152,454. Margin reduction over 2020-09-001 = 34,228

India will surpass Brazil in total cases sometime this weekend. Hard to say exactly when, but two days before, we will know for sure.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

Just yesterday, I wrote:
​

And so it came to pass....

For the second day in the row, Venezuela made the +10,000 list, ahead of Colombia and Peru.

Again, 6 of the 10 top nations in +cases are from the Americas.

It appears that Ethiopia and Nepal are becoming pretty permanent fixtures on the +1,000-list.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 189,964 / 21.92% of worldwide deaths (21.96% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 123,899 / 14.30% of worldwide deaths (14.26% the day before), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

India, total deaths: 67,486 / 7.79% of worldwide deaths (7.73 the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 65,241 / 7.55% of worldwide deaths (7.49% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

Combined, the top four nations currently represent 51.56% of all total deaths in the world to-date (51.44% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 878 per day (the day before: 859)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 902 per day (the day before: 928 )
Average daily deaths for India (current): 980 per day (the day before: 978 )

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

49 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 49, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 9.2 and 8.8 million total tests, respectively, Spain and Italy are next to cross over the 10-million line. The USA is now only 6.3 million tests behind China in the total test count.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-09-002, the world travelled from 25.89 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 25.9, 26.0 and 26.1 million to land at 26.17 million. At this trajectory, the world will most definitely go over 27 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Sunday, 2020-09-007.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-001, posted 2020-09-002, 10:30 GMT +2, #12188.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-002, posted 2020-09-003, 09:30 GMT +2, #12201.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Wednesday, 2020-09-002 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

****** 6,290,737 ******
+33,166 new COVID-19 cases, big +case disparity to WorldOMeter. See: below
There are now 189,964 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,064 of them were recorded on this day.
Louisiana, former hotspot, goes over 5,000 total COVID-19 deaths.
USA 7-day rolling average = 41,482 new infections & 902 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 15th day in a row.
The USA daily death average stayed under +1,000 for a 6th day in a row, a good sign.
15,101 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+22 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 84.1 million, now 6.3 million behind China.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The USA ended the 2nd day of the 9th month of this year with 6.29 million C19 cases.

There were less daily deaths on this day (1,064) than on the 4 Wednesdays before that.

There is a more than +8,000 case disparity between my excel table and WorldOMeters vis-a-vis the USA. Looking above, you will see that the total for the USA when I recorded it yesterday morning (my time) for 2020-09-001 was: 6,257,571

And here is now the WorldOMeter figure for that day, now listed as "2 days ago":



So, during the day on 2020-09-002, the numbers for the USA for 2020-09-001 were revised downward. This may be the reason for it:



In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The USA versus India: the two are experiencing roughly the same number of deaths per day, while the USA now has far less +daily cases. It can be that we are out of the worst of it in the USA, or it can also be that India is reporting more than 1,000,000 tests performed per day, while the USA is at an average of 780,000 per day.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: Louisiana.

The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher. You will also see that in total deaths and new deaths, I have already fed in the value for highest numeric category, as there is no way this week that those numbers will be reached at the current time.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It's going to be a busy month in the USA in September - lots of states will be crossing over the 10,000 and 100,000 marks and California will be getting very close to 1,000,000, if current trends continue. Texas is now closer to 700,000 than to 600,000.

Speaking of the nation's largest state, the USA now has 3 states with over +600,000 cases apiece, with California having passed the 700,000 case mark on 2020-08-029. Were those three states to be nations, then in the worldwide rankings, then currently, California would be rank 5, Texas would be rank 8 and Florida would be rank 9.

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Louisiana's mortality rate against total confirmed C19 cases = 3.33%.
​

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FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 189,964 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of TALLAHASSEE, or just less than the population of HUNTSVILLE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current, the table for August, then the table for September:



This means that we are currently at +5,167 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 6.1 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,806), to note. If this range holds, then the USA will surpass 200,000 deaths either on 2020-09-014 instead of the extrapolated date of 2020-09-020, in 11 days from today.

And remember, our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

BRAZIL​

No analysis, just a recognition that that nation just passed the 4-million mark and is currently rank 2 all of the nations in the world in total C19 cases, behind the USA:



When Friday, 2020-09-004 is "ad acta", we will probably be saying something similar about India.

-Stat

 

So, I wish ALL of you a good, safe, healthy Thursday. Not enough people express positive wishes these days, I think it's a sign that we are all somewhat stressed.

My work-day begins now and is over with in 10 hours, so I may actually be on some this evening (my time) to chit-chat with y'all.

But I also have election polling data to input - don't want to fall behind there, nööööö.

Oh, and @gnoib, bro: gröööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhlllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

 

So many precincts are run by elderly people on voting day. I wonder what % won't sign up for duty. It's a very long day. The viral load will be so much worse than what one voter gets.

 

INDIA SAILS OVER +84,000 new COVID-19 cases today, once again breaking it's worldwide record from the day before.​

On 2020-09-001, I wrote this in the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-031:

And in today's worldwide analysis for 2020-09-001, I indicated that India went over +82,000 new C19 cases. So, that's day no. 1 with India at +80,000 or above.

Fast forward to about one hour ago:



Soooo, that's day no. 2 with India over +80,000 new C19 cases.

To put this in context, in two days' time, India has added +166,600 new cases. That's more than all of Canada for the entire year.

Also, India is practically guaranteed to break the 4-million barrier tomorrow, 2 days after Brazil did the same.

-Stat​

 

Yikes.

 

Darn. Yes. That's bad. And our great AG is suing states to stop mail-in ballots.

 

THE PANDEMIC: EXPLOSIVE COVID-19 GROWTH IN ISRAEL - MONTHLY UPDATE
​

Before publishing the worldwide and USA analyses for 2020-09-003, here first the first monthly update for Israel, which, alongside Ukraine, went over 100,000 total COVID-19 cases on 2020-08-021. Here the excel table, updated with the data from 2020-09-002:



You can see that in the time from 2020-08-002 to 2020-09-002, Israel accumulated more +cases than in the month before, but percentually, the growth rate was far less because the sum total to begin with was so much larger. Israel's monthly death rate is indeed very low. What is concerning is that a nation that is small in population (as is also the case mit Quatar) has even gotten to 100,000 cases.

The next update will come on 2020-10-003 for 2020-10-002.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-002, posted 2020-09-003, 09:30 GMT +2, #12201.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-002, posted 2020-09-003, 10:00 GMT +2, #12202.
BRAZIL goes over 4 million C19 cases (excel table), posted 2020-09-003, 10:11 GMT +2, #12203.
India reports more than +84,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-09-003, 22:04 GMT +2, #12206.
Israel monthly short-analysis: update, posted 2020-09-004, 09:06 GMT +2, #12209.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Thursday, 2020-09-003 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍****** 26,459,046 ******֍֍
CHINA REPORTS A HUGE JUMP IN NEW TOTAL TESTS ADMINSTRATED: 160 MILLION (WAS: 90.4 MILLION)
INDIA IS POISED TO GO OVER THE 4,000,000-MARK IN TOTAL COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-09-004.


+288,671 new C19 cases over the day before, slightly less than the Thursday before.
There are 163 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 90 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
INDIA records over +84,000 new cases, setting a new worldwide record for the 2nd day in a row.
There have now been 872,523 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,909 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +263,301 new C19 cases per day and +5,365 deaths per day.
+1,094 US-American, +1,083 Indian, +830 Brazilian, +575 Mexican +270 Colombian new deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,874 (+197 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The world just crossed over the 26 million line on 2020-09-002 and already on 2020-09-003, we are pushing 26.5 million.

The rolling averages in cases and deaths is in flux - but the weekly average is the better barometer overall.

The number of daily deaths (5,909) for the day currently being analysed was more than the 4 Thursdays before.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012. As you can see, at the end of August, 2020, we are already at 25 million cases.

A number of major numerical events in C19 history happened / are happening this week:​

-Russia crossed over the 1 million mark on 2020-09-001, making it the fourth nation in the "Million Club".

-Brazil crossed over the 4,000,000 mark on 2020-09-002.

-India will most definitely cross over the 4 million mark within this week as well; I first thought both Brazil and India would achieve this statistic on the same day, however, now at 3,933,124 cases, India is extremely likely to cross over the 4,000,000 mark today, 2020-09-004, two days after Brazil.

-India should, after crossing the 4,000,000 mark, overtake Brazil in total cases by Sunday, 2020-09-006 or Monday, 2020-09-007 at the very latest..

-The USA will no longer overtake China in the total number of performed C19 tests sometime this weekend or early next week since, out of the clear blue sky and without warning, China upped it's total number of adminstered tests from 90.4 million to 160 million! *BOOM!*

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 2 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Myammar and Cuba.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +450 C19 cases and above):
​

India watch, margin behind Brazil:

2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 = 37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 = 20,327
2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 = 27,787
2020-08-027: -379,918. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 34,107
2020-08-028: -351,365. Margin reduction over 2020-08-027 = 28,533
2020-08-029: -307,253. Margin reduction over 2020-08-028 = 44,112
2020-08-030: -243,132. Margin reduction over 2020-08-029 = 64,121
I did an independent India/Brazil analysis on 2020-08-031 for 2020-08-030: India vs. Brazil total C19 case margin extrapolation/prediction, update from one week ago, posted 2020-08-031, 11:31 GMT +2, #12173.
2020-08-031: -222,962. Margin reduction over 2020-08-030 = 20,170
2020-09-001: -186,682. Margin reduction over 2020-08-031 = 36,280
2020-09-002: -152,454. Margin reduction over 2020-09-001 = 34,228
2020-09-003: -113,026. Margin reduction over 2020-09-002 = 39,428
2020-09-004: ?

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

For the second day in a row, India broke the worldwide +cases record, on 2020-09-002 with over +82,000 and now, on 2020-09-003, with over +84,000. Since Fridays in India often tend to be even heavier than or directly on par with Thursdays, we can expect India to come over +80,000 again today, 2020-09-004, which will also easily put it over the 4-million total case mark (it only needs just a little less than +67,000 cases to get there).

Again, 6 of the 10 top nations in +cases are from the Americas and once again, Argentina has made the +10,000-list.
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 191,048 / 21.90% of worldwide deaths (21.92% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 124,729 / 14.30% of worldwide deaths (also 14.30% the day before), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

India, total deaths: 68,569 / 7.86% of worldwide deaths (7.79 the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 65,816 / 7.54% of worldwide deaths (7.55% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

Combined (450,162), the top four nations currently represent 51.59% of all total deaths in the world to-date (51.56% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 820 per day (the day before: 878 )
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 895 per day (the day before: 902)
Average daily deaths for India (current): 982 per day (the day before: 980)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

49 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 49, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 9.2 and 8.9 million total tests, respectively, Spain and Italy are next to cross over the 10-million line. China just upped it's total performed tests from 90,410,000 to 160,000,000!

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-09-003, the world travelled from 26.17 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 26.2, 26.3 and 26.4 million to land at 26.46 million. At this trajectory, the world will most definitely go over 27 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Sunday, 2020-09-007.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-002, posted 2020-09-003, 10:00 GMT +2, #12202.
BRAZIL goes over 4 million C19 cases (excel table), posted 2020-09-003, 10:11 GMT +2, #12203.
India reports more than +84,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-09-003, 22:04 GMT +2, #12206.
Israel monthly short-analysis: update, posted 2020-09-004, 09:06 GMT +2, #12209.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-003, posted 2020-09-004, 09:48 GMT +2, #12210.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Thursday, 2020-09-003 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

****** 6,335,244 ******
+44,507 new COVID-19 cases, slightly less than the Thursday before.
Kentucky goes over 50,000 total C19 cases.
There are now 191,058 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,094 of them were recorded on this day.
The USA is now -8,942 away from a total of 200,000 officially recorded, certified COVID-19 deaths.
USA 7-day rolling average = 41,230 new infections & 895 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 16th day in a row.
The USA daily death average stayed under +1,000 for a 7th day in a row, a good sign.
15,042 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-59 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 84.9 million, now 75.1 million behind China! See: below

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The USA ended the 4th day of the 9th month of this year with 6.34 million C19 cases.

So, what was all that stuff about the USA getting close to China in total performed tests? Well, until yesterday, China remained for a very long time at the statistic of 90.41 million performed tests. All of a sudden, China just upped it's total performed tests from 90,410,000 to 160,000,000! So, you can now forget about the USA being close to China in performed tests. Goals!!

There were less daily deaths on this day (1,094) than on 3 of the 4 Thursdays before.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The USA versus India: the two are experiencing roughly the same number of deaths per day, while the USA now has far less +daily cases. It can be that we are out of the worst of it in the USA, or it can also be that India is reporting more than 1,000,000 tests performed per day, while the USA is at an average of 772,000 per day, and that really DOES make a difference. It can also be both scenarios working at the same time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: Kentucky.

The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher. You will also see that in total deaths and new deaths, I have already fed in the value for highest numeric category since there is no way week that those numbers will be reached at the current time.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 191,058 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of HUNTSVILLE, or slilghtly less than the population of SALT LAKE CITY, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current, the table for August, then the table for September:




This means that we are currently at +5,411 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 6.4 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+5,099), to note. If this range holds, then the USA will surpass 200,000 deaths either on 2020-09-013 instead of the extrapolated date of 2020-09-020, in 10 days from and including today.

New (2020-09-004): I would like to point out that the rolling 7-day daily death average in the USA has lowered to +895, just +45 above my assumed model of an average of +850 per day, so it is entirely conceivable that by 2020-09-013, the actually 7 day rolling average and my assumed value will be equal to each other. If that happens, I will not reset the target dates listed above, but continue to note that we are either so and so many days ahead of (or hopefully soon) behind the projection. Because things can and likely will change again by the end of this year.

And remember, our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Been a while, took a break from the thread just to clear my mind and hope that things got better. They didn't
On the positive, we've never hit +100k per day as feared and knock on wood, but I don't think we will.Even as bad as India is, they're not at 100k. So I think there's a limit to just how viral covid19 is.

 

INDIA GOES OVER 4,000,000 COVID-19 CASES
​

So, this happened between 18:35 and 19:03 PM my time in Germany (just 5 minutes ago):



And then...



This also means that India jumped 1 million cases, from 3,000,000 to 4,000,000, in 13 days.

-Stat

 

INDIA SAILS OVER +87,000 new COVID-19 cases today, once again breaking it's worldwide record from the day before.
​

So, not only did India cross the 4-million line in confirmed COVID-19 cases today, it once again broke it's own +case record (which is also the worldwide record), going from +82,000 on 2020-09-002 to +84,000 on 2020-09-003 to +87,000 today:



The excel table:



Soooo, that's day 3 of +80,000 (or considerably more) CA19 cases and in the last 3 days, India has grown a total of +254,131 C19 cases. That is more cases than either Iraq or Germany have acquired over the entire year to-date!

-Stat

 

This apparent lower number of daily positive cases may be due to people having to now pay for a test whereas before the costs were covered by the government grant which has now been cut (according to a different thread). People who suspect that they may have the virus but have low income will not pay for a test

 

I just want to give a head's up that with 2.5 hours left in the day at WorldOMeter, our world has already sprung +263,500 cases over yesterday, with surely around another 8,000-10,000 cases to come in in the USA. Plus, as of now, Peru, Argentina, Colombia, Egypt, the Dominican Republic, Panama, Oman, Guatemala, Bahrain, Venezuela, Guatemala, etc, have not even reported C19 numbers for today yet.

So, for the first time, I see the real possibility that our world will hit or go over +300,000 cases today. It's very likely that today will be record-setting.

Wait and see.

 

Soooo...

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/a-covid-second-wave-in-spain-holds-a-warning-for-us-134312147.html

Jesus, Spain in deep trouble again! I used to quote them as the model, with their zero, one, two daily deaths for weeks in a row... and then, boom, they thought they had it all under control and started partying again... look at what happened. Cautionary tale, indeed.

 

Likely, as the election nears, the Trump Administration will do everything in their power to minimize the stats and give the impression that things are under control. The CDC, apparently under pressure by Scott Atlas, Trump's new advisor who is a full-blown covidiot, has already issued recommendations to decrease the number of tests (pretending that testing the asymptomatic contacts of positive cases is not necessary, when au contraire, this seems like the most necessary group to be tested, to try and prevent further spread if you can quarantine asymptomatic people who spread it without knowing that they are infected).

 

If the covidiot Scott Atlas prevails and Trump tries for the elusive herd immunity threshold, the University of Washington IHME is anticipating that the death toll in the US could increase to 620,000 by January. While I do find that they do tend to overestimate things because supposing NO precautions recommended by the authorities does not mean that all the people will stop spontaneously being cautious - me, regardless of what the CDC or the Trump Administration say, I'll continue to be cautious until my wife, my daughter, my son, and I (plus hopefully all my other relatives if I can convince everybody) can get an effective and safe vaccine; so the high number of 610,000 supposing NO precautions is not likely to materialize, given that a lot of prudent people are likely to be thinking the same way. Not to forget, a lot of this is in the governors' hands, not the federal government's.

Without the "no precautions" worst case scenario, they are saying we could get to 410,000 by January 1st. Again, I doubt it even to that degree (I don't see in 4 more months, the death toll more than double what it's been so far, for two reasons, one, because of the low hanging fruit effect - some of the most vulnerable populations will have died already, and two, because the treatment protocols have improved.

So, we'll see. But it is true that we might expect an acceleration, due to some other factors:

The Twindemic effect as flu cases start to complicate things in December, with people unsure of which one they got and freaking out and crowding ERs and Urgent Care clinics
The holidays and festive occaions, Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, with people gathering and traveling
The very November election for those who weren't wise enough to request mail-in absentee ballots (or, if Trump succeeds in curtailing those - he is certainly trying, and even, his AG is suing a state to stop it) leading to crowded precincts on election day
Sports restarting, sure, without the pubic, but people gathering to watch games together, especially for our most popular sport, the NFL
Schools reopening, especially for the older groups, high school and college
The winter, with people congregating more indoors, due to cold weather outside, and we know that indoors, transmission is higher.

So, yes, things should accelerate again, soon.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-003, posted 2020-09-004, 09:48 GMT +2, #12210.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-003, posted 2020-09-004, 10:18 GMT +2, #12211.
India goes over 4 million COVID-19 cases, posted 2020-09-004, 19:07 GMT +2, #12213.
India reports more than +87,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-09-004, 22:33 GMT +2, #12214.
The world goes over +300,000 C19 cases in one day, posted 2020-09-005, 01:13 GMT +2, #12217.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-09-004 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍****** 26,783,544 ******֍֍
INDIA GOES OVER 4,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES.
FOR THE FIRST TIME, THE WORLD EXPERIENCES +300,000 NEW COVID-19 CASES IN JUST ONE DAY.

+324,498 new C19 cases over the day before, highest +case total to date, breaking all records.
There are 163 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 90 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
INDIA records over +87,000 new cases, setting a new worldwide record for the 3nd day in a row.
The world is poised to go over 27 million COVID-19 cases today, 2020-09-005, one day earlier than predicted.
There have now been 878,334 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,811 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +269,128 new C19 cases per day and +5,380 deaths per day.
+1,066 Indian, +1,053 US-American, +855 Brazilian, +513 Mexican +262 Colombian new deaths were recorded.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,904 (+30 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The world just crossed over the 26 million line on 2020-09-002 and already two days later, 2020-09-004, we are pushing 26.8 million.

There is a sizeable disparity of 25,286 in the +cases, and it makes the difference between seeing a sizeable +300,000 case gain, or not. It also makes a difference in the true count of countries with over +10,000 C19 cases on this day.





Here the screenshot (total cases, page 1) from yesterday, from the analysis for 2020-09-003:



I double checked that this morning, now listed as "2 days ago":



For instance, when I did the analysis for 2020-09-003, Spain had reported 488,513 cases. That number was revised upward to 512,630 by the EOD on 2020-09-004, a 24,117 case disparity. So, three of the nations where there are disparities have been highlighted by me in red in the revised version of page 1 of the total cases for 2020-09-003. See the disclaimer link at the top of the report for the reason why I stick to the numbers I input for my EOD analyses.

The rolling averages in cases and deaths is in flux - but the weekly average is the better barometer overall.

The number of daily deaths (5,811) for the day currently being analysed was more than the the Friday before, less than the two Fridays before that and almost identical to 4 Fridays ago.

A number of major numerical events in C19 history happened / are happening this week:​

-Russia crossed over the 1 million mark on 2020-09-001, making it the fourth nation in the "Million Club".
-Brazil crossed over the 4,000,000 mark on 2020-09-002.
-India crossed over the 4,000,000 mark on 2020-09-004.
-India should overtake Brazil in total cases by Sunday, 2020-09-006 or Monday, 2020-09-007 at the very latest. With these huge jumps in +cases in India, it is very much looking as if that will happen tomorrow, 2020-09-006.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 1 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Venezuela. Spain is also indicated on the rubrik-table due to the disparity discussed above.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +450 C19 cases and above):
​

I've not been paying all that much attention to this detail yet, but there are now five nations with between 500,000-700,000 total C19 cases: Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Mexico and Spain. Very likely at least 4 of the 5, if not all 5, will be well over the million mark by year's end. Two of them (Peru and Colombia) are now already closer to 700,000 than they are to 600,000.

India watch, margin behind Brazil:

2020-08-023: -500,598
2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 = 37,849
2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 = 20,327
2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 = 27,787
2020-08-027: -379,918. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 34,107
2020-08-028: -351,365. Margin reduction over 2020-08-027 = 28,533
2020-08-029: -307,253. Margin reduction over 2020-08-028 = 44,112
2020-08-030: -243,132. Margin reduction over 2020-08-029 = 64,121
I did an independent India/Brazil analysis on 2020-08-031 for 2020-08-030: India vs. Brazil total C19 case margin extrapolation/prediction, update from one week ago, posted 2020-08-031, 11:31 GMT +2, #12173.
2020-08-031: -222,962. Margin reduction over 2020-08-030 = 20,170
2020-09-001: -186,682. Margin reduction over 2020-08-031 = 36,280
2020-09-002: -152,454. Margin reduction over 2020-09-001 = 34,228
2020-09-003: -113,026. Margin reduction over 2020-09-002 = 39,428
2020-09-004: -71,562. Margin reduction over 2020-09-003 = 41,464

In just 12 days time, India has closed the gap to Brazil from -500,598 to -71,562. That is an enormous gap reduction.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

For the third day in a row, India broke the worldwide +cases record, on 2020-09-002 with over +82,000, then on 2020-09-003, with over +84,000 and now, with over +87,000.

As you can see from the screenshot, based on the disparity already discussed above, Spain actually came in at +28,620 new C19 cases.

Again, 6 of the 10 top nations in +cases are from the Americas and once again, Argentina has made the +10,000-list.
​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 192,111 / 21.87% of worldwide deaths (21.90% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

Brazil, total deaths: 125,584 / 14.30% of worldwide deaths (also 14.30% the day before, for the 2nd time), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

India, total deaths: 69,635 / 7.92% of worldwide deaths (7.86% the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 66,329 / 7.55% of worldwide deaths (7.54% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

Combined (453,659), the top four nations currently represent 51.65% of all total deaths in the world to-date (51.59% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 856 per day (the day before: 820)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 887 per day (the day before: 895)
Average daily deaths for India (current): 989 per day (the day before: 982)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

49 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 49, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently at 9.2 and 9.0 million total tests, respectively, Spain and Italy are next to cross over the 10-million line. China just upped it's total performed tests from 90,410,000 to 160,000,000!

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.


FACIT: on 2020-09-004, the world travelled from 26.46 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 26.5, 26.6 and 26.7 million to land just under 26.8, at 26.78 million. With this sudden increase in daily cases, at this trajectory, the world will most definitely go over 27 million confirmed COVID-19 cases today, 2020-09-005, one day earlier than initially projected.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-003, posted 2020-09-004, 10:18 GMT +2, #12211.
India goes over 4 million COVID-19 cases, posted 2020-09-004, 19:07 GMT +2, #12213.
India reports more than +87,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-09-004, 22:33 GMT +2, #12214.
The world goes over +300,000 C19 cases in one day, posted 2020-09-005, 01:13 GMT +2, #12217.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-004, posted 2020-09-005, 09:38 GMT +2, #12221.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-09-004 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

****** 6,389,057 ******
+53,813 new COVID-19 cases, more +cases than on the Friday before.
There are now 192,111 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,053 of them were recorded on this day.
The USA is now -7,889 away from a total of 200,000 officially recorded, certified COVID-19 deaths.
USA 7-day rolling average = 41,832 new infections & 887 deaths per day.
The USA stayed under an average of +50,000 new infections per day for the 17th day in a row.
The USA daily death average stayed under +1,000 for the 8th day in a row, a good sign.
15,062 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+20 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 85.9 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The USA ended the 5th day of the 9th month of this year with just under 6.4 million C19 cases.

There were less daily deaths on this day (1,053) than on all four Fridays before.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The USA versus India: the two are experiencing roughly the same number of deaths per day, while the USA now has far less +daily cases. It can be that we are out of the worst of it in the USA, or it can also be that India is reporting more than 1,000,000 tests performed per day, while the USA is at an average of 772,000 per day, and that really DOES make a difference. It can also be both scenarios working at the same time. Interestingly enough, 2020-09-004 was the first day where both nations reported more than +1,000,000 newly recorded tests and see, the positive case total in the USA rose over the Friday before.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day.

The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher. You will also see that in total deaths and new deaths, I have already fed in the value for highest numeric category since there is no way week that those numbers will be reached at the current time.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

This time, ILLINOIS lead in +daily cases. Here's why:

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 192,111 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of considerably more than all of HUNTSVILLE, or just slightly less than the population of SALT LAKE CITY, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current, the table for August, then the table for September:




This means that we are currently at +5,614 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 6.6 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+5,354), to note. If this range holds, then the USA will surpass 200,000 deaths either on 2020-09-013 instead of the extrapolated date of 2020-09-020, in 10 days from and including today.

New (as of 2020-09-004): I would like to point out that the rolling 7-day daily death average in the USA has lowered to +887, just +37 above my assumed model of an average of +850 per day, so it is entirely conceivable that by 2020-09-013, the actually 7 day rolling average and my assumed value will be equal to each other. If that happens, I will not reset the target dates listed above, but continue to note that we are either so and so many days ahead of (or hopefully soon) behind the projection. Because things can and likely will change again by the end of this year.

And remember, our GOAL is to get these values to become negative values. Our GOAL is to get C19 deaths down to: ZERO.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

That being said, a great many of the newly recorded +cases are from the Basque region, which is autonomous and has had a paperwork backlog.

Yes, Spain is experiencing an increase in +cases, but the figures from 2020-09-004 (+26,000) are an exception, due to the backlog.

 

A reflection of how poorly we've been handling things:
Before the pandemic 171 countries allowed Americans to just fly in without a visa. Having an American passport was a strong advantage for travelers.
Now it's down to 86 (most of them, third world s.... holes).
Sure, it happened elsewhere too; the European Union passport also having lost 50 visa-free countries. But they still hold on to 120 countries.
As a dual national, I'm better off than my fellow Americans who don't have this luxury, given that I do hold a valid European Union passport, in addition to my American passport.

https://qz.com/1893192/the-countrie...o-visa-free-in-september-2020/?utm_source=YPL

 

INDIA REPORTS +90,594 new COVID-19 cases today, once again breaking it's worldwide record from the day before.​

In a development that has even surprised me, for the first time in the history of our world, a nation recorded more than +90,000 new COVID-19 cases. This just happened in the last hour:



Currently, India is now 2nd in the rankings, but Brazil has not reported most of it's data for the day; Brazil will likely end the day at Rank 2 when all is said and done. Tomorrow, 2020-09-006, India will then surpass Brazil, probably permanently.

Here the excel-table:



Soooo, that's day 4 of +80,000 (or considerably more) CA19 cases and in the last 4 days, India has grown a total of +344,725 C19 cases. That is more cases than the UK has acquired over the entire year to-date!

Also, for the first time ever in the Indian C19 statistic, it's 7-day rolling daily death average went over +1,000.
This is also the first time where India recorded more than 1,000,000 tests performed for the 2nd day in a row.

It is entirely possible that by this time next week, India may record +100,000 or more cases in just one day.

And if a massive 2nd wave hits in the fall, India won't be the only nation doing this.

-Stat